来源：南篱论金 今天十月三日，周五，收周线啦，各位早！ A、关于风险： 明天我就要正式开启假期啦！ 黄金大洗盘，今天怎么说； 原油黑车下坠，三冲四破诚不欺我； 美元就是卡这里了，等待。 日线上的构成是真的有意思，周三一根流星线，周四一根阴烛刷新高点后猛跌，将洗盘二字运用到极致。但是日线当前还在相对高位的震荡， 下方呢，MACD快慢线金叉持续运行，力度较强，一时半会儿的，只有形成死叉才能真正下跌，否则就不想那么多了。下方关注前低的得失即 可。 短线上，小时图的顶背离终终终于修正好了，然后到四小时上呢，死叉成立，布林三轨呆滞走平。我也在考虑，昨天的楔形破位了之后，看一 下回踩反压力线的情况呢。也就是60—65区间的得失，下方呢，先关注43一带即可。 原油方面，隔夜报收含上影线的大阴烛体。参与上，提示观察破位情况，实盘无参与。 原油处在三冲四破和三重底的边缘，前低最重要。前一天让实盘平出，第二天实在无法下手，得亏我谨慎呐。好消息是，又可以找机会抄底了 呢，日线的低点相连，找一找趋势线的支撑好了。 短线上，小时图底背离成立，是有些反弹的势头的。四小时的结构上，却是MACD快慢线死叉延续，都没有一点拐头迹象，所以再等等 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, which has broken a previous pattern and shows bullish signals with a target range of 3420-40 [3] - Oil prices are under pressure, with a focus on the previous low levels and potential for a rebound if certain technical indicators align [4] - The US dollar is experiencing a narrowing trading range between 99.5 and 98.3, indicating a period of consolidation [5] Group 2 - The domestic gold target of 782 has been reached, with further attention on the breakout potential towards 790 [6] - Important economic events are scheduled, including Eurozone retail sales and US EIA crude oil inventory data, which may impact market movements [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data fell short of expectations, and stainless steel showed a weak and volatile trend. The nickel market also had a weak performance, with the nickel futures contract showing a decline and the stainless - steel futures contract also under pressure [1][4]. - In the nickel market, although the refined nickel spot had some support, the supply - surplus pattern remained. The stainless - steel market faced downward pressure with a decline in spot trading volume and cooling downstream purchasing sentiment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 121,050 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,818 lots, and the open interest was 97,451 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract 2509 was weak and volatile throughout the day, with a decrease in trading volume and a slight increase in open interest compared to the previous day. The short - term downward momentum was accumulating, and the 117,000 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [2]. - In the spot market, the prices of major brands of refined nickel decreased. The spot price provided support to the futures price, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel changing to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remaining at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans at - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,705 (- 54.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 208,692 ( + 600) tons [2]. Strategy - Given the cooling market sentiment and the supply - surplus pattern, the expected upper range was 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. For trading strategies, only single - side range trading was proposed, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2509 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,342 lots, and the open interest was 94,448 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract was weak and volatile, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day. The 13,100 yuan/ton level was considered a short - term resistance, and the 12,400 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [4]. - In the spot market, the prices in Foshan decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the trading volume declined. The nickel - iron market price also decreased, and it was expected to remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 250 - 450 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - Since the main stainless - steel contract formed a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton, it was waiting to break through the 120 - day moving - average resistance. The expected upper range was around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. The single - side trading strategy was neutral, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international spot gold price opened at $3316.24, reaching a high of $3333.89 and a low of $3307.79, closing at $3326.38, an increase of $11.60 or 0.35% [1] - The gold price is currently supported by monthly and quarterly lines, indicating potential for a rebound after a recent break [5] - Despite the strengthening US dollar, gold and other precious metals have shown resilience, suggesting a possible short-term reaction to technical support levels [5][8] Group 2: US Dollar Index Performance - The US dollar index opened at 98.64 points, peaked at 99.13 points, and closed at 98.90 points, up 250 points or 0.25%, marking a five-week high [3] - The dollar's strength is expected to exert increasing pressure on gold and commodity prices, testing their technical support levels [8] Group 3: Precious Metals Overview - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6995.28 points, with a high of 7046.05 points and a low of 6943.15 points, closing at 7023.70 points, an increase of 32.77 points or 0.47% [4] - Silver, platinum, and palladium prices also saw increases, with silver up 0.10% to $38.18, platinum up 0.60% to $1395.20, and palladium up 1.69% to $1254.50 [5] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - NYMEX crude oil prices increased significantly, with a rise of 2.94% on Monday and 3.39% on Tuesday, despite the strong dollar [8] - The current oil price dynamics suggest a potential bottoming out, with the market showing signs of resilience against the backdrop of inflation concerns [10][12] Group 5: Hedge Fund Positioning in Oil - The total market value of open contracts in NYMEX crude oil futures is $2635.40 billion, with hedge fund positions significantly reduced compared to previous years [15] - Hedge funds' net positions in the oil market are at a ten-year low, indicating limited capacity to exert downward pressure on oil prices [16]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,550 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 131,554 lots, and the open interest was 54,128 lots [1]. - The main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upward, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, approaching the edge of turning green, indicating a short - term correction demand. There was a bottom divergence at around 117,000 on June 23, and it is estimated that the 117,000 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 1,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased. The refined nickel futures market entered a sideways phase, with increasing downward pressure. The overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the supply glut pattern remained unchanged. Although the premium had declined recently, it was still at a high level, so the spot price supported the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [1]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,049 (- 506.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,288 (708) tons [1]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the supply glut pattern remains. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,685 yuan/ton and closed at 12,670 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,703 lots, and the open interest was 100,817 lots [2]. - The main contract of stainless steel rose and then fell again, closing with a small negative candlestick. Affected by the contract switch, the trading volume and open interest of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and the negative candlestick covering the positive candlestick last Friday indicated pressure above the 40 - day moving average. It is considered that there are two pressure levels at around 12,700 and 13,100. There was a bottom divergence at around 12,400 on June 24, so it is estimated that the 12,400 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [3]. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market raised their quotations by 50 yuan/ton in the morning, but many reduced prices to boost sales in the afternoon. The spot trading volume did not recover well, and market confidence remained insufficient. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, with most sellers' quotations at 905 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, tax - included). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,750 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 110 and 310 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 900.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The daily line of the stainless steel main contract formed a bottom divergence structure at 12,400. Wait for it to stand firm above the 40 - day moving average pressure level. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the supply surplus situation remains, and the short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is still insufficient. The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,440 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 94,219 lots, and the open interest was 62,803 lots. The contract showed a weak shock, and the trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and there was still a need for short - term correction. The 117,000 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel and other mainstream brands decreased. The trading sentiment of refined nickel improved, but the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,555 (259.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (0) tons [1]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The trading strategy is mainly range trading for single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,583 lots, and the open interest was 93,471 lots. The contract rose first and then fell, and the trading volume and open interest increased due to the contract switch. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and there was pressure above the 40 - day moving average. The 12,400 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [2]. - In the spot market, most quotes in the Foshan market remained the same as the previous trading day, and the trading volume did not improve significantly, with insufficient market confidence. The nickel - iron market quotes decreased, and it was expected that the nickel - iron price would be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,775 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 170 - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the refined nickel market is in a supply - surplus situation, with the short - term upward momentum weakening. The recommended strategy is to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices. The estimated price range is between 117,000 - 118,000 and 122,000 - 123,000 [1][2] - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is insufficient, and the nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term. The recommended strategy is similar to that of nickel, with an estimated price range between 124,000 - 125,000 and 130,000 - 131,000 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,960 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,732 lots, and the open interest was 59,940 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day. The short - term callback demand exists, and the 117,000 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices of mainstream brands decreased, and the premium of refined nickel decreased but remained at a high level, providing support for the futures price [1] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,296 (854.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (402) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000. Unilateral trading should be range - bound, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,715 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,687 lots, and the open interest was 66,494 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased significantly compared to the previous day due to partial position shifting. The pressure levels are around 12,700 and 13,100, and the 12,400 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices in the morning were mostly flat, and increased by 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, but the trading volume did not improve, and market confidence was still insufficient. The nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Unilateral trading is neutral, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The refined nickel market is in a state of oversupply, with recent trading relatively sluggish. The short - term operation is advised to be postponed, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - The stainless steel market also has low market confidence. The short - term operation is advised to be postponed, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,700 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,158 lots, and the open interest was 76,791 lots. The contract showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the daily MACD red column area continued to expand. The 117,000 level is estimated to be a strong support in the medium - to - long - term. The spot market had mixed price changes, and the supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,221 (-36.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,006 (-288) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term operation is advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The estimated upper range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower range is 117,000 - 118,000. The strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 30, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,590 yuan/ton and closed at 12,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,051 lots, and the open interest was 101,013 lots. The contract oscillated and declined, and the daily MACD red column area's expansion speed slowed down. The 12,400 level is estimated to be a strong support in the medium - to - long - term, and the 13,100 level is a resistance level. The spot market had weak trading and low confidence. The nickel - iron price was expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The short - term operation is advised to be postponed. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The estimated upper range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower range is 12,400 - 12,500. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Group 1 - The article indicates that the sentiment three-line has dropped and is consolidating, with signs of a potential bottoming out in the market [1] - The rebound is expected to be limited, likely not exceeding the upper boundary of the current oscillation structure, suggesting a second type of structure is developing [1] - The possibility of a 3T VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) is highlighted, indicating a small top formation followed by a pullback before a potential breakout [1] Group 2 - There is a noted potential for further downside tomorrow, as the 15-minute VAD (Volume Accumulation Distribution) divergence is not very clear, although MACD divergence is present but still weak [1] - Stock performance is expected to show significant divergence, with a strategy of low buying to capture rebounds being recommended [1] - It is advised to maintain a lighter position, with larger opportunities likely arising only when the sentiment three-line drops to an extreme low, which may take time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the KDJ indicator as a tool for identifying turning points in the stock market, likening it to a "speed sensor" for stock prices, helping investors understand whether the market is accelerating towards a peak or preparing for a rebound [1]. Group 1: KDJ Indicator Overview - KDJ consists of three lines: K (short-term speed), D (medium-term speed), and J (extreme speed), which together monitor stock price momentum [3]. - The combination of these three lines is essential for identifying market turning points [3]. Group 2: Practical Application of KDJ - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the K line crosses above the D line, signaling a potential upward movement, while a death cross occurs when the K line crosses below the D line, indicating a possible downward correction. For example, a tech stock saw its price rise from 15 to 30 after a golden cross, then drop back to 20 following a death cross [4]. - **Overbought and Oversold Conditions**: The J line indicates extreme conditions; a J value above 100 signals overbought conditions, while below 0 indicates oversold conditions. For instance, a liquor stock had a J value of 120 before a 15% correction, and a J value of -10 before an 8% rebound [5]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the KDJ does not, suggesting potential selling pressure. Conversely, a bottom divergence indicates a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the KDJ does not [8]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Tips - KDJ is best used for short-term fluctuations, particularly in a sideways market, where its signals are more reliable [8]. - In a strong trend, KDJ may remain in overbought or oversold territory, and traders should consider volume and market conditions before making decisions [8]. - A mnemonic for using KDJ effectively is: "Golden cross looks at volume, death cross looks at support, avoid hard resistance in overbought/oversold conditions, and turn quickly when divergence appears" [8].