证券研究报告|轻工制造 ⚫ 投资建议：总体来看，受益于宏观政策发力、去年同期低基数等因素的 影响，2025 年 1-8 月规模以上工业企业实现利润总额同比+0.9%，相比 1-7 月增速提升 2.6 个 pct，利润端有所改善。从消费品制造业细分行 业看，1-8 月必选食饮制造行业利润同比正增长，可选消费行业表现平 淡。建议关注：（1）食品饮料：①白酒行业：我们判断当前白酒行业 处于筑底阶段，低估值+高分红为股价提供强支撑，因此向下空间有限， 预计随着渠道库存逐步出清，市场有望提前于白酒企业报表端业绩拐点 而迎来向上拐点。②大众食品：2025 年扩内需政策加码，同时一些细分 行业的原料成本处于下降通道或者底部区域，从而有利于利润释放和业 绩向好，建议关注乳制品、饮料、啤酒、调味品等行业。（2）社会服 务：作为提振消费的核心抓手之一，社服多个赛道今年迎来业绩增长良 机，建议关注受益于政策重点利好的旅游、免税、酒店、餐饮、教育龙 头。（3）商贸零售：①黄金珠宝：在全球贸易环境多变、美元信用体系 受冲击的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力进一步提升，金价有望持 续上涨。同时，国潮文化影响下，消费者更愿意为产品工艺支付 ...

中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶通过文字向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，"稳预期"是推动房地产市场止跌回稳的关键，预计10月起各项已出台政策将 进一步落实，同时，增量政策仍有一定空间，激活市场购房需求。 9月29日下午，据深圳市住建局官微，深圳市、区将携手多家房企推出特色专场活动，福田、罗湖、南山等近百个在售楼盘推出限时优惠和礼品，降低购 房门槛。 据中指研究院不完全统计，9月以来，四川达州、浙江衢州及杭州、湖南岳阳、吉林长春、重庆等约20市、区发放购房补贴。 "销售价格下限不受限制" 国庆中秋长假将至，多地政府推出购房优惠政策，拿出"真金白银"补贴购房者。 9月30日，武汉市住房和城市更新局等部门联合发布政策，阶段性调整住房公积金贷款套数认定标准。2025年10月1日至2026年6月30日，缴存人家庭购买 新建商品住房申请住房公积金贷款时，正在挂牌出售的一套住房不纳入贷款套数认定。 从各地的购房活动看，多以房管或住建部门牵头，地方房地产协会组织热门楼盘进行集中展示。 比如，10月1日～8日，深圳将举行房产活动假日专场，鸿荣源、保利置业等房企的近30个项目将在前海冰雪大世界地铁口附近参展。 同期，南山区将举行好房 ...

Market Overview - The Chinese real estate market has shown signs of recovery since the policy meeting on September 26, 2022, aimed at stabilizing the market, with core cities experiencing better sales performance and an increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][2][4] - However, the momentum of recovery has weakened since the second quarter, and the market remains in a phase of stabilization [1][5] - The State Council reiterated the need for strong measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market in August, leading to policy optimizations in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which slightly improved the market in September [1][10] Sales Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the national new housing sales area was 570 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, with sales revenue at 5.5 trillion yuan, down 7.3% [4][39] - The sales of existing homes continued to outperform new homes, with existing home sales accounting for 35.4% of total sales in the first eight months, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4][7] - In key cities, the transaction volume of second-hand homes increased by approximately 9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with notable growth in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai [7][10] Policy Adjustments - Major cities have implemented policy adjustments to stimulate demand, including easing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan conditions [10][55] - The policies in Beijing and Shanghai have allowed for unlimited purchases outside core areas for eligible families, while Shenzhen has significantly reduced purchase restrictions in non-core areas [10][55] - The government has also focused on activating demand through various measures, including increasing housing subsidies for families with multiple children [54][57] Land Supply and Demand - In the first three quarters of 2025, the land transfer revenue in 300 cities increased by about 13% year-on-year, although the area of land sold decreased by 9% [22][36] - The average premium rate for land transactions has decreased, indicating a cautious approach from developers amid ongoing market adjustments [29][36] - The focus of land acquisition remains on core cities, with developers showing strong interest in high-quality land parcels [22][32] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first eight months of 2025 was 6 trillion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on short-term investments [39][43] - The funding for real estate development companies has also decreased, with total funds down 8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing financial challenges in the sector [42][43] - Major developers are increasingly focusing on cities with higher sales certainty, leading to intensified competition for land in these areas [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is still in a downward phase, but the oversupply of new homes has been reversed, and the situation of excessively high housing prices has significantly eased, providing a foundation for stabilization [1] Group 1: Real Estate Market - The new home supply situation has improved, indicating a potential for market stabilization [1] - The high housing price issue has been alleviated, suggesting a more favorable environment for buyers [1] Group 2: Development Business - Companies with strong capabilities in constructing quality homes and sufficient new inventory are favored, particularly those focused on regions like Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu [1] Group 3: Operational Real Estate - Companies with outstanding operational capabilities and superior asset portfolios are viewed positively in the operational real estate sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, and Shanghai's "Good Housing" regulations have been implemented [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The transaction area of new houses in 68 cities increased by 27% month-on-month, but decreased by 22% year-on-year, totaling 2.45 million square meters in week 39 of 2025 [3] - The cumulative transaction area for new houses in 68 cities from the beginning of the year reached 88.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [3] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 1.88 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [3] Group 2: Land Transactions - The total planned construction area of land launched in 100 major cities was 22.71 million square meters, with a transaction area of 24.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32% [3] - First-tier cities saw a 53% year-on-year increase in land transaction area, totaling 1.19 million square meters [3] - Second-tier cities had a transaction area of 7.78 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 36% [3] Group 3: Financing Trends - The issuance scale of domestic credit bonds increased by 140% month-on-month, reaching 14.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 203% [4] - The average weighted interest rate for credit bonds was 2.35%, a decrease of 16 basis points [4] - The cumulative issuance scale of credit bonds was 311.55 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [4] Group 4: Policy Initiatives - Shanghai's planning and natural resources bureau introduced 17 specific measures to enhance residential quality, focusing on urban design optimization, community environment improvement, and old community renovations [2] - The central government reported that 21,700 old urban communities were newly started in the first eight months of 2025, achieving 86.8% of the annual target [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, and the "Good Housing" regulations in Shanghai have been implemented. The tracked 68 cities show a month-on-month increase in new housing transactions, with 20 cities also experiencing a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions. The land transaction area has increased year-on-year, and the premium rate has decreased month-on-month. The issuance of domestic credit bonds has increased month-on-month. The report suggests that with various policies promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, the overall market is moving towards stabilization, although slight fluctuations in housing prices may still occur [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Urban Old Community Renovation Progress - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that from January to August 2025, 21,700 urban old communities were newly started, achieving 86.8% of the annual target of 25,000 [6][14]. 2. Sales Side: New Housing Transaction Area Month-on-Month Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, the transaction area of commercial residential properties in 68 cities was 2.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22% but a month-on-month increase of 27%. The cumulative transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 88.46 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [19][32]. 3. Investment Side: Land Transaction Area Year-on-Year Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 22.71 million square meters, and the transaction area was 24.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The premium rate for land transactions was 1% [41][44]. 4. Financing Side: Domestic Credit Bond Issuance Scale Month-on-Month Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 14.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203% and a month-on-month increase of 140%. The cumulative issuance scale of credit bonds is 311.55 billion yuan, which is basically flat year-on-year [52][56]. 5. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index fell by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.07%. The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the real estate sector [58][61].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy adjustments in major Chinese cities aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, highlighting the positive effects of these measures on housing demand and market activity [1][10]. Policy Adjustments - Major cities like Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented significant policy changes to stimulate the real estate market, including the removal of purchase restrictions and adjustments to loan policies [1][2][8]. - In June, Guangzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions and reduced down payment ratios and interest rates; in August, Beijing and Shanghai followed suit with similar relaxations [1][2]. Market Performance - Following the policy changes, Beijing saw a 37% increase in housing provident fund loan applications in the first month after the new policy, indicating a strong market response [2]. - The real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of recovery, with core urban land markets remaining active, which is expected to positively influence second-tier cities [1][12]. Regional Variations - The performance of the housing market is not uniform across regions; for instance, the second-hand housing market within Beijing's Fifth Ring faces significant price pressure due to competition, while new homes in popular areas outside the Fifth Ring are benefiting from policy incentives [2][5]. - In Shanghai, the new policies have led to increased interest in areas like Qingpu and Songjiang, while other districts like Jinshan and Fengxian are still experiencing downward trends [5]. Land Use and Development - Guangzhou has introduced a new land use efficiency reform plan, allowing previously self-held properties to be sold, which may lead to a short-term increase in supply [6][11]. - The recent policies in Shenzhen include differentiated management of purchase qualifications, which aims to balance housing demand across different regions [7][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, with indicators suggesting a potential end to the downward trend observed since June, particularly during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [10][12]. - Analysts predict that the recovery in first-tier cities will have a ripple effect on second-tier cities, enhancing overall market confidence [12].

Economic Overview - The economic growth momentum in China has declined due to extreme weather, policy adjustments, and external factors since Q3 2023 [1] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first eight months of the year is at a record low of 0.5%, while retail sales growth has dropped to 3.4%, indicating a potential further slowdown in Q4 [1] - The impact of high U.S. tariffs on global trade and China's exports may become more pronounced in Q4, increasing the necessity for policies to stabilize growth and employment [1] Policy Measures - Analysts expect a new round of growth-stabilizing policies to be introduced in Q4, focusing on fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and boosting consumption and the real estate market [2][4] - The government has a relatively low debt ratio compared to other major economies, providing ample policy space for intervention [2] Fiscal Policy - Proposed fiscal measures include establishing new policy financial tools estimated at 500 billion yuan to support infrastructure investment, which could leverage around 6 trillion yuan in total investment [4][5] - The issuance of special government bonds and increasing funding for "two new" initiatives (equipment updates and consumption subsidies) are also anticipated to stimulate consumption [5] - Local government land use rights revenue has decreased by 4.7%, necessitating additional special bonds to support infrastructure and affordable housing projects [5][6] Monetary Policy - There is a possibility of new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in Q4 to enhance liquidity and stimulate lending [7] - The current low inflation environment allows for a more accommodative monetary policy without immediate concerns about high inflation [7] Real Estate and Consumption - The real estate sector is expected to see comprehensive support policies in Q4, including expedited loan approvals for key projects and potential tax reductions for transactions [8][9] - Consumption policies may expand to include a wider range of goods and services, with potential increases in "trade-in" subsidies to stabilize consumer spending [9]

Group 1 - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) surged 4% on September 24, reaching a new high for the year, with a trading volume exceeding 54 million CNY [1] - The ETF's price reached 0.705 CNY, reflecting a 3.98% increase, with a trading volume of 1.17 million shares [2] - Key stocks in the ETF, such as Shanghai Lingang and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, hit the daily limit, while several others, including China Merchants Shekou and Vanke A, rose over 2% [2] Group 2 - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with residential investment down by 11.9%, but new home transactions in 68 cities showed a year-on-year increase [3] - The total transaction area for real estate is stabilizing at 1.5 billion square meters, despite a decline in new home sales, indicating that overall demand has bottomed out [3] - The contribution of the real estate sector to the economy has decreased from 18% in 2012-2020 to an estimated 11% in 2024, reflecting a significant reduction in the industry's weight in the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with various regions implementing policies to support housing demand and improve market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of the year, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The sales revenue of commercial housing fell by 7.3%, with a reduction of 16.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The year-on-year decline in new residential prices has also narrowed, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing reductions of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively in August [1] Group 2: Financial and Inventory Improvements - From January to August, the funds available to real estate developers decreased by 8%, but this decline is 12.2 percentage points less than the same period last year [2] - The inventory of commercial housing has been reduced for six consecutive months, with a decrease of 3.17 million square meters from July to August [2] - The supply-demand balance in the real estate market is improving, as local governments are reducing new land supply to prevent further imbalance [2] Group 3: Future Potential and Demand - The ongoing urbanization in China and the large stock of existing housing (approximately 35 billion square meters) indicate significant future demand for new construction [2] - There is a continuous increase in demand for "good houses," as urban development shifts from expansion to quality improvement [3] - The risk for real estate companies is gradually decreasing, with progress in debt restructuring and risk management for troubled firms [3]