文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，最近一年多，A股港股的上涨行情是怎样的？ A股港股的牛市有哪些特点？面对这样的市场，我们该如何应对？ 哪些品种可能会继续上涨，哪些品种需要谨慎一些？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0909 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） A股、港股的本轮牛市 要讨论牛市特点，我们 首先要对牛市做一个定义。 到底什么样的市场，才算是牛市呢？ 每个投资者对牛市的定义不同。 国际上，一般从熊市底部上涨超20%，认为进入到技术性牛市。 反之，从顶部回调超20%，认为进入到技术性熊市。 从体感上，投资者一般把涨到指数点数较高位置的时候，叫做牛市。 比如2007年、2015年，当时大盘涨到了五六千点。 如果按照技术性牛市的标准，A股和港股在最近一年里，都算是进入了牛市。 如下，分别是2024年初以来，中证全指和恒生指数的涨跌走势。 可以看到，最近一年多，A股、港股都经历了好几波下跌-上涨行情。 A股经常是连续几年低迷，然后在短时间内大幅上涨。 2014-2015年，以及2024年9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic conditions, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their body temperature in extreme cold, markets can misinterpret economic signals, leading to potential misjudgments about economic health [1]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [7]. - Japan's economy has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, referred to as the "lost thirty years," characterized by minimal inflation and economic growth [10]. Japan's Economic Performance - Japan's CPI index showed only a 7.5% increase from 1991 to 2021, averaging an annual growth rate of 0.25% [10]. - In terms of GDP, Japan's per capita GDP in 2024 is projected to be $32,420, which, when adjusted for inflation, represents a 33% decline from 30 years ago [10][12]. Stock Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell significantly over the following decades, illustrating the long-term economic decline [13]. - Despite experiencing several technical bull markets, the overall trend remains downward due to a lack of new industries and innovation [21][23]. Policy Missteps - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble's collapse, leading to delayed and ineffective policy responses [16]. - The Bank of Japan's slow transition from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged economic stagnation [16][17]. Infrastructure Investment Issues - Japan's public works spending has often been misallocated, focusing on low-impact projects in declining regions rather than stimulating private consumption and investment [20][29]. - The inefficacy of infrastructure investments has led to increased government debt without corresponding economic recovery [29]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - The article emphasizes the importance of targeted investment in emerging industries rather than excessive spending on infrastructure with diminishing returns [29]. - It highlights the need for coherent and consistent fiscal policies to avoid the pitfalls of Japan's past, particularly in the context of an aging population and rising government debt [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic stagnation, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their physical sensations in extreme cold, markets can also misinterpret economic signals, leading to false perceptions of economic health [1][2]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [2]. - The case of Japan's "lost 30 years" illustrates how prolonged economic stagnation can occur despite seemingly positive data, as evidenced by Japan's CPI growth from 1991 to 2021 being only 7.5% [2][5]. Japan's Economic Stagnation - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [5][7]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, reflecting a long-term economic decline [7][10]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble burst, leading to ineffective policy responses that failed to stimulate recovery [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed shift from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged deflation, with interest rates remaining high until 1995 [11]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [11][12]. - Public works spending increased significantly in the 1990s, but much of it was directed towards low-impact projects in declining regions, resulting in wasted resources [12][14]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of targeted investment in sectors that can drive growth, rather than indiscriminate infrastructure spending [23][27]. - The need for a coherent industrial policy to foster new industries is critical, as Japan has struggled to innovate in emerging sectors like technology and renewable energy [17][23]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while increasing public investment can stabilize growth, it must be strategically directed to avoid economic imbalances and ensure effective use of resources [27][28].

Group 1 - The recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index has led to a perception of a "technical bull market," but many ordinary investors are still facing losses in their individual stocks despite the index reaching 3700 points [1][2] - The index is heavily influenced by a few large-cap companies, which can disproportionately affect its performance compared to smaller firms [2][3] - Major contributors to the index include state-owned enterprises and large financial institutions, which require only minor increases to significantly impact the overall market [3][5] Group 2 - Certain sectors, such as solar energy, liquor, and real estate, are currently underperforming due to various challenges, including overcapacity and declining demand [6][8] - In contrast, industries like AI, computing power, and robotics are experiencing substantial growth, driven by strong market demand and technological innovation [9] - The current market environment is characterized by structural divergence, where understanding industry dynamics is crucial for investment success [9][10] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider index funds, such as those tracking the CSI 300 or SSE 50, as a safer investment strategy that can help mitigate risks associated with individual stock selection [14][15] - The potential for a market correction exists, and investors should be cautious about entering the market at high points, waiting for more favorable conditions [17][19] - Historical trends suggest that market rotations and broad rallies may occur, but the current environment has not yet shown signs of a widespread uptrend [19][20]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded 20% from its low on April 7, when Trump announced the "liberation day" tariffs, indicating a potential entry into a technical bull market [1]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high since October 8, indicating a technical bull market with over a 20% increase from the April low [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion, with over 2900 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The film and cinema sector continued its strong performance, leading the gains [1] - Other sectors that saw significant increases included oil, innovative pharmaceuticals, and pork [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included batteries, diversified finance, and minor metals [1]

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent A-share market rally is the warming of policy expectations, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - The "anti-involution" policy has become a central theme, focusing on regulating low-price competition and promoting product quality in industries such as new energy vehicles and energy [1] - The recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the shift from large-scale expansion to urban renewal, indicating a focus on improving existing urban infrastructure rather than new developments [2] Group 2 - The demand-side infrastructure stimulus signals have exceeded expectations, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and a 15-year construction period [2] - The market is experiencing a dual approach with supply-side "anti-involution" and demand-side infrastructure efforts, contributing to a recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Despite external uncertainties such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions, the market has shown relative desensitization, with expectations for large-scale incremental policies remaining low [3]

Market Overview - The market continues to rise, returning to a rating of 4.7 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks show slight gains, while small and mid-cap stocks experience more significant increases [2] - The banking index slightly declines, but value style indices continue to rise, driven by news of large infrastructure projects [2] - The A-share market has seen a strong performance, with a continuous rise for five weeks, returning to levels seen around last year's National Day [3] Bull Market Analysis - A question arises whether the current rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks indicates a bull market; definitions of a bull market vary [6] - Internationally, a technical bull market is defined as a rebound of over 20% from a bear market low; A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have rebounded over 20% since the low in May [7] - Investor sentiment often reflects a bull market when most participants are in profit, which typically occurs in the later stages of a bull market [8] - Historical bull markets show that small bull markets usually reach around 3 stars, while larger bull markets can reach 1-star bubble valuations [9] Market Structure - Bull markets are often structural rather than uniform; historical examples include small-cap bull markets in 2014-2015 and large-cap value bull markets in 2016-2017 [14] - The 2007 bull market was unique in that it saw broad increases across all categories, while most others are characterized by specific styles or themes outperforming [15] - Low-valued stocks will eventually see upward movement, as seen with value indices that underperformed from 2019-2021 but are expected to rise from 2022-2024 [17] Market Dynamics - Bull markets are not characterized by continuous rises; significant corrections of 10-20% can occur even in strong bull markets [18] - Recent performance of the Hong Kong technology index, which rose over 60%, exemplifies a bull market, but it was not a straight rise [20] - The relationship between stock performance and earnings growth is crucial, as rising profits combined with valuation increases create a double effect during bull markets [23] Investment Strategies - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" investment strategy has lowered its minimum investment to 200 yuan and introduced a regular investment feature [25][29] - This strategy aims to meet regular cash flow needs, employing a balanced 40:60 stock-bond strategy to achieve excess returns [28] - The current market rating of 4.7 stars is considered suitable for investment in the "Monthly Salary Treasure" strategy [30]

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices contrasts with gold's stagnation, attributed to silver's industrial demand and its role as a shadow commodity to gold [2][3] - Other precious metals like platinum and palladium have also seen significant price increases, with platinum rising over 50% since April and palladium over 30% [2] - The macroeconomic backdrop for commodities this year includes concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 10% since the beginning of the year [3] Group 2 - The performance of gold and silver varies with economic conditions; during weaker economic phases, gold tends to outperform silver, while in stronger phases, silver benefits from increased industrial demand [3][4] - Historical data shows that during periods of rising global manufacturing PMI, the gold-silver ratio decreases, indicating silver's relative strength [4] Group 3 - In the black commodity sector, the current basis changes present trading opportunities, with significant fluctuations observed in the market [5][6] - The recent price increases in the black commodity sector are not fully reflected in the spot market, leading to discrepancies between futures and actual market conditions [5][6][7] Group 4 - The current market dynamics suggest a potential bottoming out for commodities, driven by low absolute prices and the emergence of demand, particularly from real estate and exports [16][12] - The market is experiencing a rotation of leading commodities, with polysilicon and lithium showing significant price movements [30][29] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a substantial increase of nearly 28% since September 2024, indicating a technical bull market [32][33] - The banking sector has been a major contributor to this rise, accounting for 24% of the index's increase, followed by the electronics and non-banking sectors [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to show strong performance, with major indices reaching new historical closing highs despite geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations with Canada [1][2]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points, or 1.00%, closing at 43819.27 points; the S&P 500 increased by 32.05 points, or 0.52%, to 6173.07 points; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52%, ending at 20273.46 points [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have both confirmed entry into a bull market, with the Nasdaq up over 20% since its low on April 8 [1]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [2]. - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance, following better-than-expected revenue guidance [2]. Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks performed well, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1% [3]. - Nvidia reached new highs, while Apple and Intel saw slight increases, and Microsoft and Tesla experienced minor pullbacks [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Consumer confidence improved significantly, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlooks and reduced concerns about personal finances [3]. Market Expectations - Financial markets are adjusting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and only a 19% chance for a cut in July [3]. Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4].