Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices have surged over 32% this year, outperforming gold's nearly 20% increase, making silver one of the best-performing major commodities [2] - Silver is still relatively inexpensive compared to gold, with prices on June 16 showing gold at 797 CNY per gram and silver at 10.50 CNY per gram, indicating a growing interest in silver investments [3][5] - Investment in silver products has seen a significant increase, with sales of silver bars and coins rising over 40% year-on-year, and a 20% increase in sales from May to June [5] Group 2 - The surge in silver prices is attributed to policy risks, particularly the increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum by the U.S., leading to market uncertainty and a shift of investments into silver futures [5][6] - Silver's industrial demand is rising due to its essential role in technologies such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI hardware, with a projected total demand of 1.164 billion ounces in 2024 [10][11] - The silver market has experienced a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, with limited growth in silver production and historically low global inventories, supporting price increases [13][14] Group 3 - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the relative value of gold to silver, reached 1:100 in June, significantly above historical averages, indicating potential for silver price appreciation [18][20] - Historical data suggests that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 100, it often leads to a period of excess returns for silver, as it tends to revert to historical norms [19][20] - The current market conditions suggest that silver may continue to rise in value, making it an attractive investment option for the long term [22] Group 4 - While silver shows promise for significant price increases, potential economic downturns and inflation risks could suppress industrial demand, necessitating cautious investment strategies [23] - It is recommended that investors allocate 5-15% of their portfolio to precious metals like silver as a form of insurance rather than a primary investment [24] - The disparity between gold and silver prices presents both risks and potential returns, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics over relying solely on technical analysis [26]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a three-day upward trend driven by safe-haven demand and a weak dollar, but faced a pullback due to stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a slight gain [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 111,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This data weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant drop in gold prices on Thursday [2] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy, with a 90-day tariff suspension period ending on July 9, has supported gold as a safe-haven asset while increasing market volatility [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion. This rising sovereign debt diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and supports a long-term upward trend for gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and progress in Iran nuclear negotiations, have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, putting some pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events to watch next week include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on July 8, the release of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes on July 9, and the weekly initial jobless claims data on July 10. These events may provide insights into monetary policy and economic outlook, impacting gold prices [3] - July 9 marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, with ongoing negotiations with major economies like Japan and India progressing slowly. The market anticipates potential threats of increased tariffs to compel concessions from other countries, although an extension of the deadline is also likely [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend this week, closing with a bullish candlestick, aligning with the expectation of a near-term bottom and subsequent rebound [4] - The current market is in a corrective phase following a rise from a low of 3347 to a high of 3365, indicating a second wave adjustment within a larger upward structure. The focus will be on the progress of this correction, with anticipation for a subsequent third wave upward movement [5][7] - After the completion of the second wave rebound, attention will shift to potential opportunities in the third wave downward movement, which is a key focus for upcoming trading strategies [8]

美股自今年4月触底以来持续反弹，尽管面临贸易不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势，市场表现依然坚韧。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利分析师Michael J Wilson及其团队的最新研报指出，美股这轮上涨比市场普遍认知的更具基本面支撑，三大关键驱动因素 正在改善：盈利预期修正、美联储政策预期转向、地缘政治和政策风险缓解。 最新数据显示，自4月中旬以来，标普500指数的盈利修正广度已从低谷-25%回升至-5%，显示企业盈利预期正在显著改善。这一指标的历史表现表明，类 似拐点通常预示着未来强劲的回报。 同时，市场对美联储降息的预期也在升温，大摩预测到明年年底可能降息7次，为今年下半年的股市估值提供潜在支撑。此外，地缘政治和政策风险的缓 解进一步为市场注入了信心。 报告称，这些动态共同推动了市场情绪的改善，尤其是对大盘优质股的偏好，在6-12个月的前景中保持看涨。 盈利改善：市场反弹的核心驱动力 报告指出，盈利预期修正广度这一关键指标已在4月17日微软财报发布时触底，目前已从低点-25%回升至-5%，且这一改善更多来自正面修正而非负面修 正减少。 历史回溯显示，当盈利修正呈现类似V型复苏时，未来12个月的市场回报往往较为强劲 ...

三季报6家博企5家超预期，股价表现分化，整体显著跑赢大盘：截止上周，六家澳门博企全部公布了三季报。除了永 利澳门新开业项目不及预期导致三季报低于预期，其余五家公司均超出市场预期，带动了行业在过去的一个月跑赢指 数，建议重点关注的金沙、银河、美高梅10月至今平均涨幅5.9%，超出恒生指数10.8个百分点。三季度受益于中场业 务表现强劲及费用控制，行业利润率提升显著。新开项目中，永利皇宫贵宾业务优异但中场业务显著低于预期。巴黎 人开业18天即实现28%EBITDA利润率，超预期，再次验证了金沙在大众市场上的强大竞争力和优秀运营能力。 行业收入中速增长有望持续到明年，客源结构逐步改善：三季度新开项目对整体收入贡献显著，如果剔除新增项目， 则市场增速会大幅降低。预计四季度及明年上半年行业收入将持续受益低基数及新项目带动，大致维持中高单位数增 长。游客端数据较平稳但结构改善明显。年初至今入境人数同比持平，9月游客数同比微增0.5%，较8月有所反弹。留 宿游客增速 作 者：顾柔刚 政策风险仍是压制板块的长期因素：10月澳洲皇冠赌场员工在大陆受调查，博彩板块应声下挫，当天平均跌幅达到 3%左右。此次行动一方面对后续赌场在大 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证中重申，实现中性利率需"数次降息"，但关税政策可能推高通胀。这与特 朗普要求大幅降息的诉求形成政策张力。目前联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间已逾半年，市场定价 显示首次降息时点推迟至9月，全年降息幅度收敛至50个基点。 这种政策不确定性正重塑资产定价逻辑。Al-Hussainy警告，市场参与者尚未对双向极端情景建立足够 风险对冲，而美联储官员的公开辩论显示，货币政策转向将高度依赖关税影响评估及就业市场韧性验 证。 降息风险则源于劳动力市场意外走弱。Al-Hussainy强调，若就业数据出现断崖式下滑，美联储降息幅 度可能远超当前华尔街预期的2026年底前100个基点。这种极端情景将冲击股市估值，并对存量债券构 成重定价压力。 利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy指出，未来12个月美联储可能面临加息或大幅降息的双向政策风险。当 前市场定价仅反映基准情景，但两种尾部风险均未被充分消化。 加息概率被评估为15%左右，触发场景与共和党财政扩张及关税传导相关。若特朗普推动的税收与支出 法案实质性推高经济增长，叠加关税成本向终端消费传导，美联储或需重启紧缩周期。耶鲁大学预算实 ...

宁波家联科技股份有限公司相关 债券 2025 年跟踪评级报告 中鹏信评【2025】跟踪第【202】号 02 本评级机构依据内部信用评级标准和工作程序对评级结果作出独立判断，不受任何组织或个人的影响。 本评级报告观点仅为本评级机构对评级对象信用状况的个体意见，不作为购买、出售、持有任何证券的 建议。本评级机构不对任何机构或个人因使用本评级报告及评级结果而导致的任何损失负责。 本次评级结果自本评级报告所注明日期起生效，有效期为被评证券的存续期。同时，本评级机构已对受 评对象的跟踪评级事项做出了明确安排，并有权在被评证券存续期间变更信用评级。本评级机构提醒报 告使用者应及时登陆本公司网站关注被评证券信用评级的变化情况。 本评级报告版权归本评级机构所有，未经授权不得修改、复制、转载和出售。除委托评级合同约定外， 未经本评级机构书面同意，本评级报告及评级结论不得用于其他债券的发行等证券业务活动或其他用途。 | 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

莱恩精工在前次创业板上市报告期内存在通过与子公司签署无真实交易背景业务合同获取银行贷款的情形。具体操作模式为贷款银行向公司发放贷款后，将 资金支付给莱恩精工子公司，子公司收到银行贷款后再转回给莱恩精工。截至首次申报审计截止日2020年末，莱恩精工通过子公司向银行贷款1.13亿元，部 分银行贷款尚未归还完毕。 首次申报审计截止日后，莱恩精工与子公司之间仍持续通过签署无真实交易背景的业务合同获取银行贷款，金额共计1亿元。基于上述违规情形，2022年8月 深交所向莱恩精工出具监管函，决定对公司采取书面警示的自律监管措施。这一财务内控问题直接导致莱恩精工上市受阻，公司创业板申报于2022年7月终 止审核。 苏州莱恩精工合金股份有限公司在三年前因财务内控问题导致创业板IPO失败后，如今重新启动上市计划，将目标转向北交所。该公司在2021年冲刺创业板 期间，因违规转贷问题收到深交所监管函。其第一大客户Tricam的资信状况也曾遭到中国出口信用保险公司质疑。 公司股权结构呈现高度集中特征，实际控制人张建元、张秀卓父女掌控着公司全部表决权。作为"85后"的张秀卓已完成对企业的全面接班，担任董事长兼总 经理职务。值得关注的是， ...

目 录 一、关于境外业务……………………………………………………第 1—21 页 二、关于山西生产基地火灾事项…………………………………第 21—25 页 三、关于出售子公司交易…………………………………………第 25—36 页 四、关于货币资金与借款…………………………………………第 36—44 页 五、关于资产处置损失……………………………………………第 44—53 页 六、关于固定资产…………………………………………………第 53—61 页 七、关于应收账款…………………………………………………第 61—74 页 八、关于存货………………………………………………………第 74—81 页 关于晶 科 能 源股份有限公司 天健函〔2025〕643 号 上海证券交易所： 由晶 科 能 源股份有限公司（以下简称晶 科 能 源公司或公司）转来的《关于晶 科能源股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函》（上证科创公函 〔2025〕0158 号，以下简称监管问询函）奉悉。我们已对监管问询函所提及的 晶 科 能 源公司事项进行了审慎核查，现汇报如下。由于涉及商业敏感信息，公司 申请对客户名称、毛利率等数据 ...

现货黄金是即期交易的国际理财产品，成交后能马上交割。它交易规则灵活，投资回报也较为可观，因此备受全球投资者追 捧。国际现货黄金市场交易量惊人，每天都有新投资者入场。但该市场风云变幻，收益与风险如影随形。那你可知，现货黄金 投资常见风险有哪些呢？ 应对：合理控制仓位，避免一次性投入过多；依风险承受能力设止损点，果断止损；采用定投策略，平滑波动，降低风险。 一、市场风险 价格波动风险 黄金价格受全球经济、地缘政治、通胀预期、美元走势等因素影响，波动剧烈。如突发地缘危机，金价或短期大涨；经济稳 定、美元强势时，金价可能下跌。 应对：关注经济数据、地缘动态、央行政策，结合技术面与基本面预判走势；分散投资组合，降低单一资产波动影响。 流动性风险 正常时黄金市场流动性较好，但极端行情下，如恐慌抛售或经济危机，可能出现流动性不足，增加交易成本与潜在损失。 应对：选信誉好、流动性强的交易平台和经纪商；合理安排资金，避免过度杠杆，以防追加保证金。 二、财务风险 价格下跌风险 黄金长期保值，但短期价格下跌仍可能致本金损失。如经济好转、通胀预期下降，避险需求减弱，金价或下跌。 杠杆风险 现货黄金采用保证金制度，杠杆可放大收益与亏损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. energy storage market is facing a crisis due to policy shifts, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act, which has imposed stringent localization requirements, adversely affecting companies reliant on Chinese supply chains [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company-Specific Insights - Powin, a U.S. energy storage company ranked seventh globally, has submitted a notice to cease operations, potentially leading to the loss of 250 jobs due to financial challenges exacerbated by policy changes [3][4]. - The company has been heavily reliant on Chinese suppliers for battery cells, and the new localization requirements have significantly increased its operational costs, pushing it towards a crisis [5][6]. - In contrast, Xiamen Hicharge Energy, a Chinese company, has achieved an 11% global market share in energy storage and is preparing for an IPO, but faces risks due to Powin's bankruptcy and the overall instability in the U.S. market [4][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing a slowdown, with many projects on hold due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and the Inflation Reduction Act, which has led to a cautious approach from developers [6][7]. - Analysts predict a significant decline in new energy storage projects in the U.S. post-2025 due to rising costs and increased policy uncertainties [7]. - The crisis faced by Powin reflects broader challenges within the U.S. energy storage sector, highlighting the vulnerabilities of companies dependent on foreign supply chains [5][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Risks - Hicharge Energy's financials show a dramatic increase in trade receivables, rising from 4.02 billion RMB in 2023 to 8.31 billion RMB in 2024, indicating pressure on cash flow despite revenue growth [13][15]. - The company's asset-liability ratio exceeded 70% by the end of 2024, raising concerns about its financial stability amid increasing reliance on the U.S. market [15][18]. - Despite achieving profitability in 2024, Hicharge's revenue growth has been accompanied by significant operational challenges, including a drop in domestic revenue and high competition [17][20].