伴随市场回暖，基金中基金（FOF）业绩大"回血"，达到近五年最佳状态。 业内人士表示，未来3年股市或结构性走强，债市则处于超涨高位相对走弱，可择机加大权益资产配 置。 最牛涨超45% 择机加大权益资产配置 近期，"股债跷跷板"效应显著，刘迪认为，当前股债性价比处于中性区间，股票和债券的吸引力相对均 衡，尚未出现极端配置信号。具体方向上，优先关注估值处于历史低位或政策支持的科技成长领 域。"要根据自身风险偏好动态调整，避免激进切换，稳中求进更适配当前市场环境。" "国内宏观经济平稳运行，债券的边际上行空间有限；同时，权益市场回暖，风险偏好和微观流动性开 始好转，在原有赔率优势的基础上，胜率优势也逐渐上升。从股权风险溢价指标角度，目前权益市场仍 具有性价比。短期由于资金驱动带来'股债跷跷板'效应比较极致，需要注意可能的波动加大及回摆调 整。"平安基金基金经理王家萌谈道。 公募FOF五年来最佳表现 Wind数据显示，截至8月22日，515只公募FOF年内平均业绩达9.41%，仅一只产品收益为负；近40只 （只统计初始份额）公募FOF年内累计净值增长率超20%。其中，曾辉管理的国泰优选领航一年持有、 国泰行业轮动A以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The average performance of public FOFs has exceeded 9% this year, marking the best state in nearly five years, driven by market recovery and opportunities in equity asset allocation [2][4][6]. Performance Overview - As of August 22, 515 public FOFs achieved an average performance of 9.41% this year, with only one product showing negative returns; nearly 40 FOFs recorded a cumulative net value growth rate exceeding 20% [5]. - The top performers include Guotai's "Optimal Navigation" with a 45.49% increase and "Industry Rotation A" with a 39.97% increase in net value [5]. Market Conditions - The current market environment is characterized by a significant recovery, with domestic and overseas equity markets, as well as commodities like gold, showing strong performance [6][12]. - The A-share market has seen substantial inflows, contributing to the overall positive performance of FOFs [6]. Investment Strategy - There is a shift in public FOF investment strategies from traditional fund selection to a core-satellite model focusing on ETFs, particularly in a structural bull market [7]. - The recommendation is to increase equity asset allocation, especially in "fixed income plus" assets, as the stock market is expected to strengthen structurally over the next three years [9][12]. Asset Allocation Insights - The current "stock-bond seesaw" effect indicates a balanced attractiveness between stocks and bonds, with a focus on technology growth sectors that are historically undervalued or supported by policy [9]. - The macroeconomic stability in China suggests limited upward potential for bonds, while the equity market is recovering, enhancing the risk-reward profile for equities [9][12]. Sector Opportunities - There are notable opportunities in commodities, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares, with a focus on growth industries such as new materials and renewable energy, as well as cyclical industries like metals [11][13]. - The recommendation is to avoid over-concentration in single sectors and to regularly adjust the stock-bond ratio to maintain alignment with initial risk levels [13].

Core Insights - Index investment is experiencing a significant surge, with pure index fund assets surpassing 4 trillion yuan in Q2, reflecting a 7.4% increase from Q1, driven by changes in resident asset allocation and the inherent advantages of index products [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The shift in resident asset allocation is characterized by an increase in risk appetite, a trend referred to as "deposit migration," and a rising demand for quality equity assets [2][4]. - The number of aggressive risk-tolerant individual investors has increased by 1.25 percentage points over the past year, indicating a growing preference for higher risk-return products in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 2: Product Characteristics - Index funds are becoming essential tools for asset allocation, offering benefits such as risk diversification, enhanced returns, increased transparency, and reduced management costs [2][4]. - New product categories like sci-tech bond ETFs and cross-market ETFs are emerging, providing diversified investment options and gaining market recognition [2]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The value of equity asset allocation is becoming increasingly evident, with index funds viewed as high-quality tools for entering the equity market [4]. - Three types of capital are expected to inject momentum into the equity market: insurance funds favoring high-dividend large-cap assets, household savings exceeding 120 trillion yuan, and foreign capital seeking stable, liquid blue-chip stocks [4][5]. Group 4: Internationalization and Foreign Investment - The increase in A-share profitability has attracted foreign investors, who prefer fundamentally strong, liquid leading stocks and passive investment strategies, thereby promoting value and index investment concepts [5][6]. - Since A-shares were first included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2018, the proportion of foreign ownership in total circulating market value has risen from approximately 1.3% in 2012 to 3.7% in 2020, with a notable acceleration post-MSCI inclusion [6][7]. Group 5: Market Evolution - The entry of long-term foreign capital has improved liquidity, pricing efficiency, and corporate governance transparency, aligning the market with international practices [7]. - As Chinese companies gain global influence, the process of foreign capital allocation to A-shares is expected to continue, leading to further innovations in product offerings and trading mechanisms [7].

Group 1 - The current valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is relatively low, while dividend yields are high, suggesting that long-term capital allocation to equities may yield substantial returns [1] - Insurance funds have significantly increased their stock allocations, with the proportion reaching a recent high, driven by low interest rates and asset scarcity [1][3] - As of the end of Q2, the balance of insurance funds allocated to stocks was 3.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9% from the previous quarter, representing a net purchase of approximately 640 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3][4] Group 2 - The shift in insurance funds' investment strategy is moving from "controlling positions" to "selecting sectors," reflecting the need to adapt to market volatility and structural changes [2][5] - Insurance companies have made 28 equity stakes in 23 listed companies this year, marking the highest number of actions in nearly four years [5] - The overall investment style of insurance funds favors large-cap, high-dividend, and low-volatility assets, with a preference for stable companies in sectors like banking, public utilities, and transportation [6] Group 3 - The total balance of insurance funds reached 36.23 trillion yuan by the end of Q2, with a 3.73% increase from the previous quarter [3] - The proportion of insurance funds allocated to long-term equity investments rose to 7.6%, while the allocation to securities investment funds was 4.6% [4] - The recent approval of several private fund management companies indicates progress in the long-term investment reform pilot for insurance funds [8]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance companies are actively increasing their stakes in listed companies, with a notable rise in the number of equity investments this year, indicating a strong willingness to enhance equity asset allocation [3][4][6]. Group 1: Recent Activities - On August 13, China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd. announced that it and its affiliates have increased their stake in Guangdong Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. by acquiring H-shares [3]. - As of August 13, the total number of equity stakes taken by insurance funds this year has reached 27, significantly higher than the 20 instances recorded for the entire previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The majority of the 27 instances of stake increases this year were driven by active buying, with only 2 instances being triggered by passive factors, reflecting a strong intent among insurance funds to increase their holdings in listed companies [5][6]. - The main methods of stake acquisition include competitive trading and secondary market purchases, primarily funded by self-owned capital and insurance liability reserves [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes have established actionable assessment standards for the proportion and stability of insurance funds entering the A-share market, promoting a long-term assessment mechanism [6]. - Adjustments to solvency rules by the National Financial Regulatory Administration have reduced the risk factors for stock investments, encouraging insurance funds to increase their market participation [6]. Group 4: Equity Asset Allocation - The proportion of equity assets held by insurance companies is gradually increasing, with the overall equity investment accounting for approximately 20.6% of total fund utilization as of the first quarter of this year [7]. - Regulatory guidelines specify that the equity asset balance must not exceed certain percentages of total assets based on the solvency ratio, allowing for significant room for future increases in equity allocations [7][8]. Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - China Ping An Life Insurance Co., Ltd. reported a solvency ratio of 227.92% as of the first quarter, allowing for an equity investment limit of 30%, with its equity assets accounting for 23.26% of total assets [8]. - China Post Life Insurance Co., Ltd. had a solvency ratio of 194.59% at the end of the second quarter, with equity assets making up 17.08% of total assets, indicating substantial potential for future equity allocation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is actively increasing its equity asset allocation, with significant potential for future growth in this area [1][4]. Group 1: Insurance Companies' Activities - China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd. announced its recent acquisition of shares in Guangdong Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., holding approximately 605.86 million shares, which represents 5.38% of the latter's H-share capital [2]. - As of August 13, 2023, the total number of equity stakes acquired by insurance capital reached 27 this year, significantly higher than the 20 instances recorded in the previous year [2]. - The majority of these acquisitions were driven by proactive buying, indicating a strong willingness among insurance companies to increase their holdings in listed companies [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes have established actionable assessment standards for the proportion and stability of large state-owned insurance companies' investments in A-shares, promoting a long-term assessment mechanism [3]. - Adjustments to solvency rules have reduced the risk factors associated with stock investments, encouraging insurance capital to increase market participation [3]. Group 3: Equity Asset Allocation - The proportion of equity assets in insurance companies is gradually increasing, with equity investments accounting for approximately 20.6% of total investment assets as of the first quarter of this year [4]. - Regulatory guidelines dictate that the equity asset balance must not exceed certain thresholds based on the solvency ratio, allowing for a structured approach to equity investment [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that there is still considerable room for insurance companies to increase their equity asset allocation, as many companies are currently below their investment limits [5]. - The current capital market environment and accounting standards suggest that insurance capital is likely to continue expanding its equity asset holdings in the future [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of equity-based wealth management products has significantly improved, with over 90% of such products yielding positive annualized returns, driven by a recovering capital market and supportive macro policies [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Equity Wealth Management Products - As of August 3, there are 46 publicly offered equity wealth management products, with 43 showing positive returns, and 17 of these exceeding 10% annualized returns [2][4]. - The average net asset value growth rate for equity wealth management products this year is 5.82%, making them standout performers in the wealth management market [4]. - The average maximum drawdown for fixed income products is only 0.19%, while mixed products have a higher average maximum drawdown of 1.26% [4]. Group 2: Market and Policy Influences - The significant rise in equity wealth management product yields is attributed to the recovery of the capital market and macro policies that boost market confidence [6]. - A policy issued in January 2025 allows bank wealth management to participate more actively in the capital market, enhancing the allocation of wealth management funds to equity assets [6]. - The current low interest rate environment is pushing wealth management companies to diversify their asset allocations to meet client demands for higher returns [6]. Group 3: Market Size and Trends - Despite the strong performance of equity wealth management products, their market size remains relatively small, with the total wealth management market reaching 30.67 trillion yuan, where fixed income products dominate [7]. - Equity products account for only 0.07 trillion yuan of the total market, indicating a low proportion in the overall wealth management landscape [7]. - Analysts predict that as the preference for bond assets diminishes due to lower yields, there will be an increased allocation towards equity assets in the future [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in a persistently low interest rate environment, there is a shift in asset allocation towards "equity-related" products as traditional low-risk assets yield diminishing returns [1][2] - Low-risk asset returns have significantly declined, with money market funds nearing an annualized yield of 1%, and most bank wealth management products yielding around 2% [1] - The rise of "equity-related" products is evident, with secondary bond funds and "fixed income plus" funds gaining popularity, as seen in the rapid fundraising success of various bond funds [1][2] Group 2 - The shift towards "fixed income plus" funds is driven by the long-term low-risk yield environment, which raises concerns about "asset scarcity" and pushes funds towards higher-yielding options [2] - Regulatory changes have dismantled the expectation of guaranteed returns from bank wealth management products, leading to increased volatility and a clearer risk-return profile for public funds [2] - The reforms in the capital market over recent years have enhanced the attractiveness of equity assets, fostering long-term investor confidence [2] Group 3 - Strategic allocation to equity assets is essential for preserving real purchasing power, rather than merely chasing short-term trends [3] - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon when incorporating equity assets, potentially through methods like index fund dollar-cost averaging or selecting high-quality actively managed funds [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The relative value of stocks compared to bonds has significantly improved, indicated by a ten-year divergence in the Sharpe ratio difference between stocks and bonds, suggesting a resurgence in the attractiveness of equities[2][13][17]. - Policy measures have provided a rare certainty that limits downside risks in the stock market, reducing volatility and drawdowns[2][14][19]. - Economic leading indicators have shown signs of bottoming out, with the corporate and household deposit scissors gap improving since September 2024, indicating a potential stabilization in profit growth[2][14][20]. Group 2: Market Trends - The bull market is expected to continue, transitioning from financial re-inflation to real asset re-inflation, with a focus on structural optimization rather than total expansion[3][24]. - New trends above 3500 points include accelerated inflow of incremental funds, with margin trading and active equity funds driving significant volume increases, reaching an average daily turnover of 1.6 trillion CNY in July[3][25]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards mid-cap growth stocks, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) revisions, indicating a recovery in corporate performance expectations[3][27]. Group 3: Fixed Income Adjustments - The recent adjustment in the value-added tax (VAT) on bond interest income is expected to create a favorable environment for older bonds, leading to a decrease in yields and a return of alpha spread value in the bond market[4][29][32]. - The long-term impact of the VAT changes will depend on the issuance of new government bonds and the market's response to these adjustments, with expectations of a potential upward shift in the yield curve[4][32][33]. Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Signals - The July Federal Reserve meeting maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with indications that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to future rate cuts[5][34][35]. - The Fed's stance reflects a focus on managing inflationary pressures while acknowledging the uncertainties surrounding economic growth, particularly in light of tariff impacts on consumer prices[5][34][36].

Group 1 - The report highlights the allocation value of equity assets based on the "see-saw effect" between stocks, bonds, and commodities, suggesting a favorable outlook for equity investments [5][7] - Global stock markets mostly declined in the week ending August 1, 2025, while major commodity futures saw mixed results, with oil and gold prices rising, and copper and aluminum prices falling [5][6] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, which was below expectations, raising concerns about the labor market [9][10] Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed, with an average daily trading volume of 1.787 trillion yuan, while 6 sectors rose and 25 sectors fell [6][18] - The report notes that the recent volatility in commodity prices has not been mirrored in stock prices, indicating a potential divergence in market behavior [7] - The U.S. employment data revealed a concerning trend, with revisions showing a cumulative reduction of 253,000 jobs in May and June, leading to increased market skepticism regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data [11][12] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. employment data on market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September following the disappointing job numbers [15][16] - The report also mentions the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which may affect bond market dynamics [17] - The analysis indicates that the service sector drove job growth in July, while the production sector remained weak, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][13]