Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is cautiously bullish [8][9] Core Viewpoints - The market tends to price in consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With the expectation of monetary easing and risk - aversion sentiment due to the potential U.S. federal government shutdown, gold prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 860 yuan/gram and 880 yuan/gram [8] - Silver shares the same macro - level logic as gold. The easing cycle promotes the recovery of silver's industrial demand, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10500 yuan/kilogram and 11500 yuan/kilogram [10] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels, and the option strategy is to postpone [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, Fed's Williams supported the interest rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [1] - Regarding tariffs, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the U.S. and large tariffs on countries that do not manufacture furniture in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - On the fiscal front, U.S. Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, while Democrats rejected the short - term temporary spending bill [1] - Geopolitically, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which could end the war immediately if both sides agree, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian technical bureaucracy [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 857.70 yuan/gram and closed at 866.52 yuan/gram, a 1.22% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 866.88 yuan/gram and closed at 870.42 yuan/gram, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 10651.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10939.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1527083 lots, and the open interest was 508967 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10883 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10907 yuan/kilogram, a 0.29% decrease from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 29, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.521%, up 0.41 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 86 lots and short positions decreased by 108 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 471378 lots, a 4.54% decrease from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2294694 lots, a 45.70% increase from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,005.72 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,521 tons, an increase of 159 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 13.84 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1233.70 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 79.21, a 1.93% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.31, a 0.23% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 61916 kilograms, a 5.38% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 538718 kilograms, a 43.68% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 32380 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 12450 kilograms [7]

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-24 美联储分歧加大 经济数据延续弱势 市场分析 近日，美联储内部就未来货币政策路径分歧加大。美联储理事鲍曼最新表示，劳动力市场正在恶化，决策者正面 临"落后于形势"的严重风险，需要果断、主动地采取行动。她支持年内进行三次各25个基点的降息。美联储古 尔斯比则称，鉴于通胀率高于目标且呈上升趋势，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎。经济数据方面，美国9月 标普全球制造业PMI初值为52，预期52，8月终值53。服务业PMI初值为53.9，综合PMI初值为53.6，均低于预期 并创三个月新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-23，沪金主力合约开于847.50 元/克，收于 855.44 元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.06%。当日成交量为 258495手， 持仓量为 271554手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于861.34 元/克，收于859.88 元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.52%。 2025-09-23，沪银主力合约开于 10276元/千克，收于 10349元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量 为 811054手，持仓量 508755手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The weaker-than-expected US PPI data reinforces the expectation of the Fed's shift to easing in September, and the market may trade on the expectation of more-than-expected easing. Gold prices are expected to be in a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 810 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver has a similar macro logic to gold and benefits from its industrial attributes. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,600 yuan/kilogram and 10,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - In macro data, the US PPI decreased 0.1% month-on-month in August, turning negative for the first time in four months, with an expected increase of 0.3%; year-on-year, it rose 2.6%, while the expected was to remain flat at 3.3%. This may strengthen the Fed's motivation to cut interest rates at the September meeting [1]. - The US Supreme Court will quickly review the legitimacy of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for the first week of November. The Trump administration can continue to implement relevant tariff policies before the final judgment [1]. - Indian Prime Minister Modi said that India and the US are working to complete trade negotiations as soon as possible, and the negotiations will unleash the "unlimited potential" of the bilateral partnership. He also looks forward to meeting with US President Trump [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 834.06 yuan/gram and closed at 833.42 yuan/gram, a change of -0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 836.62 yuan/gram and closed at 835.16 yuan/gram, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9,798.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,796.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 485,859 lots, and the open interest was 212,530 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,803 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,817 yuan/kilogram, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.051%, down 0.39 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.507%, down 0.23 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 10, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 257 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 278 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 525,000 lots, a change of 11.58% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,066,280 lots, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons yesterday, an increase of 0.27 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.06 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -751.75 yuan/kilogram [6]. - The price ratio of the Shanghai gold and silver主力 contracts was about 85.08 yesterday, a change of 0.38% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.58, a change of 1.06% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,162 kilograms, a change of -21.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 566,582 kilograms, a change of 47.34% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 20,082 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 14,880 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's easing expectations are intensifying and its independence is being questioned, which is beneficial for the safe-haven premium of gold. Gold prices are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 780 yuan/gram and 830 yuan/gram [8] - The market is highly enthusiastic about trading easing expectations. Besides its financial attributes, silver may also be traded based on industrial demand, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9500 yuan/kilogram and 10000 yuan/kilogram [8] Market Analysis - Tariffs: Trump said India has proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it's too late. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan may include exemptions for building materials. Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy [1] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.7 from 49.8 in July, a three-year high and higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, expanding for the first time since mid-2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [1] - Employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 786.10 yuan/gram and closed at 800.56 yuan/gram, a change of 1.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 801.58 yuan/gram, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9394.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9775.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 884,674 lots, and the open interest was 294,815 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9775 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9836 yuan/kilogram, a 0.62% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 1, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.225%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.606%, up 0.11 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 1, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 0 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions also changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 495,904 lots, a change of 9.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,516,854 lots, a change of -2.80% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - As of August 30, the gold ETF position was 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -20.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1028.51 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.90, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.82, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 64,412 kilograms, a change of -11.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 653,358 kilograms, a change of -13.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9880 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 20,010 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of US employment and inflation has cooled the prospects of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales month-on-month rate data for July [1]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still in sync with that of gold, mainly driven by future easing expectations on the macro level, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term under the cooling of interest rate cut expectations [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 778.12 yuan/gram and closed at 778.70 yuan/gram, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 776.9 yuan/gram and closed at 774.54 yuan/gram, up 0.53% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,332.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,286.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 350,484 lots, and the open interest was 366,680 lots. During the night session, it opened at 9,242 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,197 yuan/kilogram, down 0.96% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 14, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, a change of +5 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.56%, down 1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On August 14, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -90 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 188,176 lots, a change of -30.00% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -328 lots, and the short positions changed by -408 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 532,407 lots, a change of -16.86% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 961.35 tons, a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,071.31 tons, a decrease of 28.25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -8.95 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -671.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.86, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day. The ratio of gold and silver prices in the overseas market was 87.08, a change of -1.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,284 kilograms, a change of -31.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 465,346 kilograms, a change of 23.50% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,664 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 47,970 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The short-term price of gold is expected to remain volatile, with the Au2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The short-term price of silver is expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 9,015 yuan/kilogram and 9,350 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View The Fed maintained the interest rate level unchanged, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If neither interest rates nor inflation change significantly, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. Silver generally follows the trend of gold, but in the long term, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If there is a relaxation of tariff tensions and a slight increase in risk sentiment, silver may benefit and show a stronger trend than gold. However, the silver price may be dragged down by the decline in Comex copper prices, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [1][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed announced at the FOMC meeting early today that it would maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but governors Waller and Bowman voted against it and advocated for a rate cut, indicating differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. Fed Chair Powell avoided giving guidance on a September rate cut at the press conference, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing data dependence, and suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.70 yuan/gram and closed at 773.78 yuan/gram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.68 yuan/gram, a 0.32% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,193.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,192.00 yuan/kg, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 689,866 lots, and the open interest was 392,370 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,145 yuan/kg and closed at 9,090 yuan/kg, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 30, 2025, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 4.34%, a change of -0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.44%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On July 30, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,141 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 607 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 254,236 lots, a change of -7.59% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,144 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,475 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 843,356 lots, a change of 14.14% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - In the precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 955.37 tons yesterday, a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,149.90 tons, a decrease of 24.02 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On July 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -9.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -719.79 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 84.18, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 87.25, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On the previous trading day (July 30, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 26,258 kg, a change of -30.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 281,690 kg, a change of -38.98% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,380 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,960 kg [7]. Investment Strategies - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Although the silver price may be dragged down by the decline in Comex copper prices, investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,900 yuan/kg - 8,950 yuan/kg [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price remains in a sideways pattern, and the gold-silver ratio has normalized due to the increase in market risk sentiment. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates. The potential removal of Fed Chairman Powell could increase safe-haven demand and benefit the gold price. It is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The silver price has reached a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. However, due to its high volatility, attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss. The weakening photovoltaic sector may also suppress the silver price in the future. It is recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. - It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - It is advisable to put options on hold [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment firm led by Trump's ally to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury significantly raised its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, slightly alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties and causing precious metals to weaken slightly. The US and the EU are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed interest rate meeting is approaching, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [1] 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.82 yuan/gram and closed at 774.78 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 770.84 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,350 yuan/kg and closed at 9,212 yuan/kg, down 1.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,203,307 lots, and the open interest was 398,421 lots. The night session closed at 9,200 yuan/kg, down 0.27% from the afternoon session [2] 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 28, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 51%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.4 SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On July 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 939 lots, and the short positions decreased by 41 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 330,092 lots, down 45.61% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,184 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,086 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contract was 1,564,987 lots, down 39.34% from the previous trading day [4] 3.5 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] 3.6 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.52 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -513.64 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.11, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.7 Fundamental Data - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D market was 34,706 kg, down 36.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 637,268 kg, down 44.82% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,848 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - Since May, the gold price has been in a volatile pattern, influenced by Trump's changing attitude towards tariff policies and Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Now, Trump's mention of replacing the Fed Chairman and urging rate cuts increases market uncertainty. For gold, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 yuan/gram - 765 yuan/gram. Silver prices are strong, hitting a record high, but due to its high volatility, it's advisable to buy on dips for hedging without aggressive chasing, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop-loss execution. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion," and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop Trump from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 774.00 yuan/gram and closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 179,960 lots, and the open interest was 170,163 lots. The night session opened at 777.70 yuan/gram and closed at 774.96 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,900 yuan/kg and closed at 8,887 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 969,816 lots, and the open interest was 465,984 lots. The night session opened at 8,910 yuan/kg and closed at 8,889 yuan/kg, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.49%, up 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.46%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On June 10, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 38 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 44 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 326,479 lots, down 28.17% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,031 lots, and the short positions decreased by 227 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,458,778 lots, down 21.36% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF holdings were 935.91 tons, down 0.31 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,689.50 tons, up 32.52 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 1.25 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -645.16 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.21, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 90.68, down 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 50,072 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 617,842 kg, up 5.80% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 21,766 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,180 kg [7].