Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is heating up, and the US labor market remains resilient [1] - The prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the near future [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is heating up, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing that the war with the US and Israel has entered a "new stage" [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 205,000, a new low for the year, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 19, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,089.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,062.00 yuan/gram, a change of -4.63% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - On March 19, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 19,392.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,984.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -9.99% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 774,107 lots, and the open interest was 227,107 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 19, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.245%, a change of -0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.461%, a change of -0.19 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On March 19, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,414 lots compared to the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 1,228 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 437,374 lots, a change of 102.70% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions decreased by 835 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,286 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,254,826 lots, a change of 41.43% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,066.99 tons, a decrease of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,187 tons, a decrease of 77 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 19, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 47.19 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 1,009.73 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 59.05, a change of 5.96% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 63.40, a change of 1.60% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 75,754 kilograms, a change of 59.89% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 448,610 kilograms, a change of -73.11% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly decrease. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,000 yuan/gram and 1,100 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The price of silver has also declined along with gold. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 16,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas interest rate hike expectations have resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision [2] - The tail - risk of the Iran situation has increased significantly, affecting the crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and there is a risk of further price increases [2] - During the two sessions in China, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the two sessions. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have leading gains and win - rates [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3] - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The situation has a significant impact on energy and production facilities in the Middle East, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is severely blocked [2] - The main affected varieties are concentrated in crude oil, LPG, and the shipping sector. Rising oil prices have driven the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [2] - The new Iranian supreme leader has stated that he will not give up revenge and will continue strategic means such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US has threatened NATO allies to assist in the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but allies have a cold response [2] - The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners. The US judge has rejected the Trump administration's subpoena against Powell [2] - The Fed will announce its March interest rate decision at 02:00 on March 19, Beijing time [2] - The 2026 government work report mentioned an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2] - During the two sessions, the A - share index has a "sell - the - fact" performance, with a negative average increase or decrease, but the average probability of increase is close to 50%. After the two sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts. There is only one interest rate cut priced in for the year [2] - China's February official manufacturing PMI is 49, and non - manufacturing PMI is 49.5. February exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year [2] - China's January - February social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.2% [2] - China's January - February real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year. The decline in housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to narrow in February [2] - Sino - US economic and trade teams started consultations in Paris on March 15 [2] Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices in the previous week were inversely correlated [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, more than double the 2022 level. There is still a gap in the supply even if the release speed is considered [3] - Rising oil prices have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol. The oilseed sector in agricultural products is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - For the black commodity sector, attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4] Important News - Iran's new supreme leader has rejected the proposal to "ease tensions or achieve peace" with the US and stated that the US and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation [6] - Iran's highest national security council secretary Ali Larijani has issued a hand - written condolence message [6] - The White House national economic council director said that if necessary, the coordinated release of oil reserves can be increased, and the Iran conflict will end in the short term. Futures show that oil prices will return to more than $50 per barrel later this year [6] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Larijani has been killed [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market risk sentiment is rising, and the geopolitical conflicts have not improved significantly. The demand for gold investment may be slightly suppressed, so the gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near future. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1080 yuan/gram and 1180 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver is currently showing a price oscillation similar to gold. The liquidity constraints have a significant impact on the price. The Ag2606 contract may oscillate between 19500 yuan/kilogram and 21500 yuan/kilogram [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Sino-US economic and trade consultations were held in Paris, France. The two sides agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. The US has recently introduced negative measures against China, such as 301 investigations, enterprise sanctions, and market access restrictions [1]. - US President Trump said that after launching a military strike on the main oil export hub of Iran, Kharg Island, attacking the island's oil infrastructure is still an option. Trump hopes that European countries, as well as Japan and South Korea, will assist in ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but German Chancellor Merz said Germany will not participate in the escort [1]. - Trump called on the Federal Reserve to hold a "special meeting" to cut interest rates and criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying he should "immediately" cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the US Department of Justice has requested a federal judge to reconsider the decision to revoke the subpoena for Fed Chairman Powell [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 16, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1140.70 yuan/gram and closed at 1118.34 yuan/gram, a change of -1.29% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume on that day was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1120.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1115.40 yuan/gram, a 0.26% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On March 16, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21430.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20301.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -2.97% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume on that day was 723961 lots, and the open interest was 216658 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20400 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20528 yuan/kilogram, a 1.12% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 16, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.226%, up 0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.551%, down 0.88 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract on March 16, 2026, the long positions decreased by 5041 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1720 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 350401 lots, a change of 16.09% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions increased by 4057 lots, and the short positions decreased by 221 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1223835 lots, a change of 27.54% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 1,071.56 tons, a decrease of 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,460 tons, a decrease of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 16, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was 21.65 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was 673.40 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.09, a change of 4.06% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 60.73, a change of 2.00% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On March 16, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51452 kilograms, a change of 54.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288302 kilograms, a change of -45.61% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11872 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 30 kilograms [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Iran situation's tail - risk has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Oil price increases have also driven up oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the sessions. The Chinese government sets economic growth at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan [2]. - China's January - February foreign trade data exceeded expectations, driven by the Spring Festival base effect and global external demand recovery. However, geopolitical risks may affect March data [2]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, followed by a large - scale counter - attack from Iran. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East, disrupted the supply chain, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Some Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have cut production. The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei. Trump said the war in Iran "won't end this week" but "will end soon" [1]. Domestic and International News - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqchi said Iran's new supreme leader won't consider dialogue or negotiation with the US. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran won't trust US commitments [6]. - Trump said there may be conditional negotiations with Iran but expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's new supreme leader [6]. - China's February exports and imports in US dollars increased by 39.6% and 13.8% respectively, with a trade surplus of $909.8 billion. In RMB, exports and imports increased by 36.1% and 10.9% respectively, with a trade surplus of 6375.5 billion yuan [6]. Macro - economic Data - Due to the government shutdown, the US Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 1.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. February CPI rose to 1.3%, core CPI rose 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9% [2]. - China's January - February exports in US dollars increased by 21.8%, imports by 19.8%. February single - month exports increased by 39.6%. Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 27.8%, 29.4%, and 49.9% respectively. High - tech and electromechanical products were the main drivers. Imported commodities showed differentiation [2]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices drive commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals are inversely related to oil prices. Energy sector needs to watch the Iran situation and "sell - the - fact" risks. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products and oilseeds. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran situation has escalated, with potential impacts on energy, precious metals, and shipping sectors. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, but there is a risk of "selling on the news". An escalation could increase global inflation risks [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds. The A - share index has limited pressure during the sessions, and the commodity sector has significant pressure. After the sessions, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 lead in terms of gains and win - rates [2]. - There are opportunities for bottom - fishing in commodities and stock index futures. Consider going long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran situation has escalated after the US - Israel air strike on February 28. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack, damaging energy and production facilities in the Middle East and its surrounding areas. The conflict may affect crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and shipping. The probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked is low, but the political direction after a possible regime change in Iran is unclear and may impact oil exports and nuclear negotiations [1]. - The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was 1.4% (annualized), lower than the expected 2.5%. The US PPI in January rose 0.5% month - on - month. The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the highest in three months. The Fed is vigilant about the Middle East situation and is not in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy stance [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies may be implemented in advance. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5 [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the long - term supply constraint remains unresolved, with high certainty. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation, and beware of the "selling on the news" risk. OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, higher than the market expectation [3]. - In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases. For the black metal sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on March 7, 2026, to interpret the "15th Five - Year Plan". - The China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman will report on the work of increasing the proportion of equity financing. - The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [5]. - An American oil tanker was hit by an Iranian missile in the Persian Gulf on March 5 [5]. - The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the highest in three months [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, with a continuous upward trend in the first month after the Spring Festival. The probability of gains for the ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 is not less than 60%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) performs prominently [3] - Consumption during the holiday provides some support for grains, soft commodities, and oilseeds in the agricultural products sector, with a nearly 70% probability of sample increases on the first trading day after the holiday [3] - The US GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the February PMI preliminary value was under pressure. China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies are expected to be implemented ahead of schedule [3] - There are opportunities for bottom - up allocation in commodity sectors after the holiday. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [4] - In the energy sector, pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Oil prices are driven by geopolitical factors, and there is a risk of "selling on the news". In the long term, increased production in Venezuela still poses a threat to oil prices [4] - In the chemical sector, varieties such as PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [4] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations. For the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] - The trading strategy is to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - During China's Spring Festival holiday, there were continuous overseas geopolitical risks. The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the US took place in Geneva on the 26th. The Trump administration requires any future Iran nuclear agreement to be "indefinitely valid" without a sunset clause, and the current negotiation focuses on Iran's domestic uranium enrichment and inventory handling [2] - The US Supreme Court ruled that the 1977 IEEPA did not empower the president to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Trump announced a 10% "global import tariff" for 150 days, which took effect on February 24, and later proposed to raise it to 15% [2] - The EU froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement, and China will adjust counter - measures against the US [2] - Trump mentioned in his State of the Union address that the stock market hit a record high, inflation dropped, and he hoped that tariffs would replace the modern income tax system. He also made other statements such as allowing legal immigration and banning lawmakers from stock trading [2] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] To - Do List - A new round of US - Iran negotiations started on the 26th, and the third round of negotiations was suspended and continued later that day [7] - The US Middle East envoy stated that the Trump administration requires Iran to accept an "indefinitely valid" nuclear agreement [7] - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 6.84 mark, reaching a new high since April 2023 [7] - The US may raise the "global import tariff" on some countries to 15%, and the EU estimates that 42 billion euros worth of goods face new tariffs exceeding the US - EU agreement limit [7] - Saudi Arabia's oil exports from its ports this month are expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years [7] Macro - economy - Figures include the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city weekly and daily commercial housing transaction areas, and five major listed steel consumption volumes [8][10][13] Interest Rates - Figures include the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads [8][18] Foreign Exchange - Figures include the weekly change in the US dollar against major currencies and the US dollar index trend [8][21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, reflecting structural changes in the labor market. The market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non-farm payrolls report [1]. - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1100 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver also shows a price recovery, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2604 contract fluctuating between 20,000 yuan/kg and 21,000 yuan/kg [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, but this does not mean a weakening of economic growth momentum, but rather reflects structural changes in the labor market. The January non-farm payrolls report will be released on Wednesday, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs. In addition, there was a "black swan" event in British politics, with several officials resigning and calls for the prime minister to step down [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1104.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1125.94 yuan/gram, a change of 3.29% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1122.92 yuan/gram and closed at 1127.00 yuan/gram, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,500.00 yuan/kg and closed at 20,873.00 yuan/kg, a change of 11.03% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 1,015,255 lots, and the open interest was 222,366 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20,500 yuan/kg and closed at 20,934 yuan/kg, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 9, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.202%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.723%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 2507 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions changed by -3023 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 447,637 lots, a change of -23.27% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -2303 lots and the short positions changed by -3455 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,971,263 lots, a change of -20.79% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The holdings of gold ETFs remained unchanged at 1,076.23 tons compared with the previous trading day. The holdings of silver ETFs decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons compared with the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -22.59 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -655.69 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 53.94, a change of 6.22% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 64.99, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 9, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 47,556 kg, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 327,768 kg, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged, and domestic policies are clearly driving up inflation. The overseas situation is mainly influenced by Trump's policies. The sharp decline in precious metals does not change the long - term trend, but short - term volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. - In the short term, be vigilant about market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. The energy sector has short - term geopolitical support for oil prices, but there are still threats from Venezuela's long - term production increase expectations [2]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. After the news, silver fell more than 30% and gold fell 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980. The core of Trump's nomination is to cut interest rates and boost the real estate market, and Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction" needs more aggressive "interest - rate cuts" [1]. - On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, hitting a 15 - month low [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and anti - "involution" competition. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15. The Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 to boost inflation [1]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, and the US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18% [1]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause since last June. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%, with an internal 5:4 vote close to a rate cut, sending a strong dovish signal [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, with high certainty [2]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value again after the adjustment [2]. - Energy: OPEC + plans to keep crude oil production stable in March. The US will "sell on commission" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. There are short - term geopolitical supports for oil prices, but long - term production increase expectations from Venezuela pose threats [2]. - Chemicals: Methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [2]. - Agricultural products: Need to pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations [2]. - Black commodities: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Trump said that his nominee for Fed Chair would not be appointed if they expressed the intention to raise interest rates [1][4]. - The UK central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations [4]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation plan was restored, and the negotiation will be held in Oman [4]. - The second round of Russia - US - Ukraine tripartite talks ended, and the US and Russia agreed to resume high - level military dialogue [1][4]. - The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation stable at 2% in the medium term and will decide the monetary policy stance based on data and meeting by meeting [4]. - The Bank of England had a 5:4 vote to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Interest rates "are likely to be cut further", and inflation persistence risks are currently "less obvious" [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly recover. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,080 yuan/gram and 1,180 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern as well, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical concerns persist as the US-Iran negotiation location change led to a deadlock, causing concerns in the Middle East that Trump may resort to military action. The US ADP employment data in January was far below expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, compared to the expected 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the release schedules for January's non-farm payroll report, job vacancy data, and CPI [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On February 4, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1,141.70 yuan/gram, a 4.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,113.78 yuan/gram, a 2.45% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,511.00 yuan/kilogram, a 9.63% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 943,213 lots, and the open interest was 237,208 lots. The night session closed at 22,955 yuan/kilogram, a 2.36% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 4, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.274%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.727%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On February 4, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,858 lots, and the short positions changed by 704 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 607,573 lots, a -39.41% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 6,992 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,131 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,904,707 lots, a 17.58% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,083.38 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,438 tons, a decrease of 109 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -14.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 47.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 48.56, a -4.79% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 56.28, a -1.53% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 69,688 kilograms, a 29.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 523,996 kilograms, a -23.65% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The China Commodity Price Index reached a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, standing at 125.3 points, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases in January, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading the gains at 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [1] Group 2: Gold and Silver Prices - Gold and silver prices experienced a rebound, with London gold spot prices surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver prices breaking the $91 per ounce mark [2] - However, by the end of trading, the gains in gold and silver prices narrowed, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract turning from gains to losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Predictions for Gold Prices - A Reuters survey indicated that analysts have significantly raised their gold price forecasts for 2026, with a median expected average price of $4746.50 per ounce, marking the highest annual prediction since the survey began in 2012 [4] - This forecast represents a substantial increase from $4275 per ounce in October 2025 and a dramatic rise from $2700 per ounce in a similar survey a year prior [4] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by factors such as previous price declines, easing overseas liquidity risks, and ongoing strong fundamentals [5] - The market is currently experiencing cautious sentiment due to a temporary U.S. government shutdown affecting economic data releases, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Silver prices may face volatility, with potential supply and inventory tightness, but new demand from sectors like AI could provide support [6]