Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market trading theme revolves around the overseas interest - rate cut cycle and the expectation of manufacturing recovery, with a warm risk preference. The fundamental situation is a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly supported by macro - bullish sentiment and inventory reduction, but LME inventory accumulation and domestic supply recovery will limit the upside space [3][8][9] Summary by Sections Transaction Data - From December 19th to 26th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,065 yuan/ton to 23,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3078 dollars/ton to 3086.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio rose from 7.49 to 7.51. The SHFE inventory decreased by 3054 tons to 72963 tons, while the LME inventory increased by 6975 tons to 106,875 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.75 million tons to 11.47 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE zinc fluctuated narrowly, closing at 23170 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.41%. LME zinc also had a narrow - range fluctuation, closing at 3086.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.28%. In the spot market, as the year - end approached, traders sold more goods, and the spot premium decreased. The downstream's purchasing weakened in the second half of the week [5] Macroeconomic Situation - The US GDP in Q3 was stronger than expected, and the initial jobless claims data last week was better than expected, leading the market to slightly increase the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year. The domestic central bank's Q4 meeting pointed out to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3][6][8] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: In January 2026, the domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline month - on - month, but the SHFE - LME ratio has recovered to open the zinc concentrate import window, and the weekly processing fees have stopped falling. The supply of refined zinc in January 2026 is expected to increase by about 15,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply pressure has a marginal increase [3][8] - **Demand**: The lifting of environmental protection restrictions in the north and project rush in the south supported the increase in the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises also increased. However, the new round of environmental protection control in the north is approaching, and the enterprises' operations are still under pressure [3][8] Industry News - In January 2026, the average domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees were 1400 yuan/metal ton and 79.04 dollars/dry ton respectively, showing a month - on - month decrease. In November, the zinc concentrate import volume increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the refined zinc import volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the refined zinc export volume led to a net export of 24,600 tons. GMI will continue to provide loans to Shuka to acquire LEM Mining and Kabwe Zinc Mine [10]

Group 1 - Weak real estate market is dragging down credit and inflation recovery, with continued low consumer willingness to purchase homes and slow inventory clearance [2] - Local government fiscal pressure is increasing due to rising bond issuance rates, necessitating short-term interest rate cuts to support the economy [2] - The recent appreciation of the RMB provides a temporary window for interest rate cuts, supported by a favorable external environment due to the Fed's easing cycle [3] Group 2 - Commercial banks are adjusting their liability structures, alleviating net interest margin pressure by reducing long-term deposit products and costs [4] - The continuation of a loose monetary policy cycle may improve the demand for long-term bonds, with expectations of enhanced performance in the bond market by early 2026 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver futures on the Shanghai market showed strong performance, with the main contract reaching 12,371.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase of 2.08% [1] Group 2 - As of November 26, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 361,700 long positions and 269,600 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.34. The net position decreased by 234 contracts compared to the previous day [2] - On November 25, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported a trading volume of 159,339 contracts for silver futures, an increase of 64,046 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest decreased by 3,943 contracts to 144,999 [2] - Recent dovish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have maintained market expectations for a rate cut in December above 80%. In geopolitical news, Russia indicated that a U.S. envoy would visit Moscow next week, but negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict are still considered premature [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the U.S. initial jobless claims recorded 216,000, the lowest since April 12, 2025, indicating economic resilience. Gold is experiencing fluctuations while silver remains relatively strong. However, uncertainties regarding rate cuts and geopolitical situations continue to affect precious metals [3] - Minmetals Futures noted that expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy have significantly rebounded following key speeches from Fed officials. The overseas rate cut cycle is expected to continue, with further developments anticipated in December. The last Fed meeting of the year is scheduled for December 10, where the economic outlook report will be released [3] - Current strategies for precious metals suggest buying on dips, with the Shanghai gold main contract expected to operate within a range of 917-967 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract within a range of 11,661-13,000 yuan per kilogram [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for silver futures in Shanghai experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 12,208.00 yuan, with a current price of 12,182.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.22% [1] - Institutions predict increased volatility in gold and silver prices in the short term due to dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - The silver futures contract is expected to operate within a range of 11,367 to 12,639 yuan per kilogram, with a recommendation to buy on dips [2] Group 2 - The market is awaiting key economic data from the U.S., including the delayed release of the October PCE, to assess the direction of monetary policy [1] - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 80% following statements from several officials advocating for a rate cut in December [1] - The ongoing discussions regarding the U.S. peace plan related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict contribute to market uncertainty, leading to a wait-and-see approach for precious metals [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy significantly rebounded after the key voting members of the Fed spoke last Friday, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, but the further driving force will be concentrated in December. The Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year and release an economic outlook report on December 10 (local time), and Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed chair in late December. Currently, it is recommended to keep the bottom position in precious - metal strategies and mainly wait and see. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 896 - 940 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.06% to 935.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.43% to 11893.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 4062.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was reported at 49.66 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.06%, and the US Dollar Index was reported at 100.21. In the context of the weak performance of the US stock market, several Fed voting members "rescued the market dovishly" last Friday, which gave relatively strong short - term support to precious - metal prices [2] 3.2 Inventory Changes - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 50.08 tons to 519.3 tons compared with the 17th, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 274.73 tons to 14329.5 tons during the same period. The current Shanghai Silver 2512 contract has a premium over the 2602 contract, indicating that the silver demand side in the domestic fourth quarter still has resilience. The COMEX silver inventory continues to decline, but the current overseas spot has not become the main driving force, and the one - month spot implied lease rate of silver has now dropped to 3.93% [3] 3.3 Data Comparison - The report provides a detailed comparison of key gold and silver data on November 21, 2025, and November 20, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and AuT + D/AgT + D, and shows the daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles of these data [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. CPI for September came in lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% against an expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [2] Inflation Components - Food inflation has cooled, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previously 0.5%) and a year-on-year increase of 3.1% (previously 3.2%) [3] - Energy prices surged, with a month-on-month increase of 3.8% (previously 1.7%), while energy services saw a decline of -0.7% [3] Core Goods - Core goods inflation has slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previously 0.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [4] - The slowdown is attributed to significant decreases in used car and auto parts inflation, which fell to 0% month-on-month from 0.5% [4] Core Services - Core services inflation also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previously 0.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [5] - The largest component, housing, saw a decrease in month-on-month growth from 0.4% to 0.2% [5] Market Reactions - The lower-than-expected CPI data has increased expectations for two more interest rate cuts this year, with a 96% probability for a December cut [7] - Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar declined [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline followed by a recovery, with the National Free Cash Flow Index showing a reduced drop of approximately 1.4%. Leading stocks included Guodian Nanzi, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Tubao, and Shanghai Electric [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened sharply lower but showed signs of recovery during the trading session [1]. - The National Free Cash Flow Index's decline has been narrowing, indicating potential stabilization in the market [1]. Group 2: ETF Activity - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index adjustment, with trading volume exceeding 170 million yuan, indicating active trading and frequent premium transactions [1]. - The ETF focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, petrochemicals, and power equipment, which helps mitigate risks associated with single industry volatility [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - China’s economic outlook is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, a prolonged low dollar, and a potential short-term increase in gold prices [1]. - Attention is needed on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the phase escalation of China-US trade tensions, which may impact market sentiment [1]. - The long-term trend of a weaker dollar is expected to continue, and the initiation of an overseas rate cut cycle may aid in the revaluation of RMB assets [1]. - A marginal increase in foreign capital inflow is anticipated in the fourth quarter, which could support the continuation of incremental funds into the A-share market [1]. Group 4: Fund Management - The fund management annual fee rate is set at 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market (excluding non - ferrous and precious metals) is in a state of oscillatory correction and volume - shrinking convergence. The black sector shows signs of stabilization and strengthening, but the suppression from the real - world situation remains. Although the short - term price of the black sector may experience periodic corrections due to real - demand factors, with the expected overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term investment around mid - October [10]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar remains weak even in the traditional peak season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. The recent increase in overseas shipments and the recovery of iron - making production support the demand for iron ore. However, attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions in finished products will spread to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term price is affected by the rise in coking coal. The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as furnace - type elimination, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases. For polysilicon, the disk price is mainly influenced by policies, and the focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [14][15]. - For glass, although the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking, the overall market supply is still abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. For soda ash, the industry supply has slightly shrunk, and the market trading atmosphere is tepid. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.287%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3369 tons to 255018 tons, and the positions increased by 65886 hands to 1.97807 million hands. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3370 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.178%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 58841 tons, and the positions increased by 22123 hands to 1.347955 million hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products is weak. The economic data in August slowed down, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and the export volume has slightly declined. The demand for rebar is sluggish, and the inventory pressure is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively neutral, with a slight reduction in inventory [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the iron ore主力合约 (I2601) was 796.00 yuan/ton, down 0.44% (- 3.50 yuan). The positions decreased by 7364 hands to 535,800 hands, and the weighted positions were 851,600 hands. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.12% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron - ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. The iron - making production has recovered, and the short - term demand for iron ore is supported. The port inventory and steel - mill imported - ore inventory have both increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On September 15, the manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) rose 1.27% to close at 5906 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) rose 1.64% to close at 5700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. For ferrosilicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support at 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63% (+ 55 yuan). The weighted positions increased by 20228 hands to 507,832 hands. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production capacity is in surplus, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is insufficient. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination, the price may rise; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 53545 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (- 65 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 1472 hands to 300,197 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type recycled material was 51.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 1995 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk price is mainly influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and part of the inventory has been transferred downstream. The price of N - type dense and recycled materials has increased, and the component segment is relatively stalemate. Pay attention to capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the glass主力合约 was 1185 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4 yuan). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%) to 615.83 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 60190 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 7686 hands [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. However, the overall market supply is abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the soda - ash主力合约 was 1287 yuan/ton, up 0.47% (+ 6 yuan). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1197 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%) to 179.75 million tons, with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 1480 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4605 hands [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has slightly shrunk due to production - line overhauls. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most purchase based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. Although it's the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils still has some resilience. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue its oscillatory trend. The short - term demand for iron ore is still supported, but the profit rate of steel mills is declining. It is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination and other related topics, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives, and attention should be paid to capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [16][17]. - The price of glass has limited room for adjustment, and the market still has expectations for policy support. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term, but the improvement of downstream demand is slow, which will limit its upward space [19][20]. - Although the black - sector prices may experience short - term corrective risks due to the current real - demand situation, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black - sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key node may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.131%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3364 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.899%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The export volume of steel has slightly rebounded but remains in a weak and oscillatory pattern. The apparent demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with increasing inventory pressure. The output of hot - rolled coils has rebounded, with relatively good apparent demand and a slight reduction in inventory. The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are diverging [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The weighted holding volume was 85.84 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.95 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.32% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, and the near - end arrival volume has slightly decreased. The daily average pig - iron output has increased, and the short - term demand for iron ore is still supported. The profit rate of steel mills continues to decline, and both port and steel - mill imported ore inventories have slightly increased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Prices**: On September 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.32% at 5608 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. The supply - and - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers. Both are likely to follow the black - sector market [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.06% (+5). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 11051 hands to 487604 hands [14]. - **Market Conditions**: The production capacity of industrial silicon is in surplus, with high inventory and insufficient effective demand. Although the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the overall inventory is still at a high level [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (-100). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 2557 hands to 301669 hands [16]. - **Market Conditions**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. The overall inventory reduction space in the industry is limited, and the price is prone to fluctuations with changes in market sentiment [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Prices**: The spot price in Shahe was 1150 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.33% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The glass production has increased, but the inventory pressure has decreased. The downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly, but the market still has expectations for policy support [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Prices**: The spot price was 1197 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased by 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.40% [20]. - **Market Conditions**: The downstream float - glass operating rate has increased, and the photovoltaic - glass operating rate has changed little. The soda - ash production is stable, and the inventory pressure has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term [20].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant growth of Hwabao Fund in 2023, particularly in the context of the overseas interest rate cut cycle and the spread of AI trends [1] - Hwabao Fund has heavily invested in leading internet companies, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 70% of the portfolio [1] - Key holdings include major players such as Tencent and Meituan, indicating a strong focus on the internet sector [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, suggesting a positive trend for certain stocks [3] - This technical indicator is often associated with bullish market sentiment, potentially leading to increased investor interest [3]