今天分享的是：2024零食行业发展趋势报告：市场变革下的新一轮增量 报告共计：20页 零食行业步入微增时代 渠道变革重塑市场格局 近年来，中国零食行业在经历高速增长后，逐步进入平稳发展阶段。随着消费行为趋于理性，市场整体增速放缓，行业规模从过去的两位数增长转为个位数 微增。据相关数据显示，2023年零食行业规模出现小幅下滑，同比降低3.5%，标志着行业正式迈入"微增时代"。在这一背景下，渠道多元化成为推动市场变 革的核心力量，消费者对价格的敏感度提升，促使行业从过去依赖单一渠道转向多渠道并进的发展模式。 零食行业长期呈现"大行业、小企业"的竞争格局，市场集中度较低，前五大企业合计市场份额不足15%。由于品类分散、品牌众多，消费者偏好多样，使得 零食品类对单一渠道的依赖性较弱。从商超、电商到如今的多元渠道时代，每一次渠道变迁都深刻影响着行业格局。线下渠道不断分化，便利店、仓储会员 店、折扣店等业态各具特色，分别以便捷、品质和低价吸引不同客群；线上则涌现出以抖音、快手为代表的内容电商，凭借精准推送和互动体验分流传统电 商流量。 在渠道变革中，零食量贩业态异军突起，成为行业增量的重要来源。量贩渠道以低价为核心竞争力 ...

Core Insights - The report outlines the consumption behavior of Generation Z during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025, based on a survey of 2,770 samples, highlighting a significant increase in participation and diverse spending patterns among this demographic [1][2]. Group 1: Demographics and Participation - Generation Z's main consumer base consists of individuals born in the 1990s, 1995s, and 2000s, with males representing 61.1% of this group [1][5]. - The highest participation rate in Double Eleven is observed in ordinary prefecture-level cities at 28.7%, followed by new first-tier cities and major metropolitan areas [1][6][7]. - Young individuals with a monthly income between 5,001 and 8,000 yuan show the most pronounced consumption demand [1][8]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In 2025, 93.1% of young people participated in Double Eleven, marking a steady increase from previous years, with 39.1% feeling a stronger sense of festivity this year [1][11]. - 38.6% of young consumers increased their Double Eleven budget compared to 2024, indicating a robust consumer confidence trend [2]. - The consumption categories have diversified, with traditional strong categories like clothing and beauty products, alongside emotional and cultural consumption, including travel, digital services, and creative products [2]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Feedback - The sentiment towards Double Eleven is mixed, with positive feedback focusing on clear promotional rules, direct discounts, and a rich variety of products, while negative feedback includes concerns about prolonged event duration and lack of price advantages [2][12][13]. - Approximately 29% of young consumers feel that there has been no significant change in the shopping experience compared to previous years [13]. - There is skepticism regarding the claim of "lowest prices of the year" during Double Eleven, with 59% of respondents feeling uncertain and 18.2% completely disbelieving this assertion [14][15]. Group 4: Technological Integration and Brand Preferences - Over 70% of young consumers are engaged with offline store activities, and there is a notable increase in preference for domestic brands, particularly in categories like smartphones and home appliances [2]. - The application of AI technology in e-commerce has emerged as a new highlight, with around 70% of young consumers having experienced AI-related services, particularly in intelligent customer service and personalized recommendations [2].

21世纪经济报道记者赵佳佳实习生刘是卓 低迷的奢侈品消费或将在双十一迎来"逆转"。 全球知名咨询公司贝恩公司发布的研究报告，作为两大核心奢侈品市场的中国与美国近年来出现下滑趋势。2025年上半年，各 大奢侈品集团的营业收入、净利润都呈现下滑的态势。 但在今年双十一中，奢侈品又成为备受消费者关注的热门品类之一，据天猫双十一第一周期数据显示10月20日正式开售后，奢 品品牌整体成交同比两位数增长，Balenciaga.Burberry、Canada Goose、Coach、MiuMiu、Maison Margiela、Max Mara.Moncler、 Ralph Lauren等品牌均在天猫实现高双位数增长。 而即使在奢侈品市场规模整体下滑的时间点上，消费者对于奢侈品的需求仍然旺盛——只不过和过去相比，当下消费者的奢侈 品消费正在逐渐分化：有的消费者重视"新品"，渴望尝鲜；有的消费者重视个性化审美与体验；有的消费者重视"高性价比"、 降低品牌溢价。不同的需求正在重新洗牌奢侈品消费市场。 而特卖电商唯品会数据显示，多个奢侈品品牌销量同比增长超30%。同时，主打奢侈品特卖的唯品会，还在今年双十一期间， 引入中检鉴定师 ...

Core Viewpoint - The frequent leadership changes at Kweichow Moutai reflect deeper strategic challenges and growth dilemmas faced by the company during a period of industry transformation [3][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Kweichow Moutai has experienced its fourth leadership change in five years, with Chen Hua replacing Zhang Deqin as chairman [3]. - Zhang Deqin's tenure lasted only 545 days, marking the shortest term in recent years, highlighting instability within the company's leadership [3][6]. - The reasons behind Zhang's departure remain unclear, but it is evident that this is not a routine leadership transition [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Dilemmas - Moutai is caught in a strategic dilemma, trying to maintain its luxury brand image while also appealing to the mass market [4]. - The company has been engaging in scarcity marketing to uphold its luxury status, exemplified by the launch of a commemorative product priced at 7,000 yuan, which quickly sold out and saw a secondary market price surge to 20,000 yuan [4]. - Simultaneously, Moutai has attempted to penetrate the mass market with lower-priced products, such as "Taiyuan Wine," which faced significant inventory issues and was ultimately discontinued [4]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Moutai's dual identity as a market-driven company and a key fiscal pillar for Guizhou Province creates conflicting pressures, complicating its growth strategy [5]. - The company faces challenges from changing consumer behaviors, including a decline in business banquets and gift-giving, which have historically supported Moutai's pricing power [7]. - The price of its flagship product, Flying Moutai, has dropped from 2,780 yuan to 1,755 yuan, reflecting a more than 30% decline, alongside a 10% drop in Moutai's stock price [7]. Group 4: Future Leadership and Strategy - The new chairman, Chen Hua, is tasked with addressing Moutai's core challenges, including the need to reshape its pricing strategy and channel dynamics [9]. - Chen's background in practical economic operations and enterprise management positions him to navigate the complexities of market demands and policy directions [9]. - The company must decide between broad expansion and focused value cultivation, as its current strategy of full-price and full-scenario expansion shows signs of fatigue [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a bleak outlook, with multiple securities firms predicting significant profit declines for major companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, by Q3 2025, indicating a severe downturn compared to previous optimistic expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Predictions - Analysts from various securities firms, including Zhongyou Securities and Guangfa Securities, predict that major liquor companies may experience profit declines of up to 30% or more, with Wuliangye's profits potentially halving [1][3]. - Moutai is expected to see near-zero profit growth, while Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujinggongjiu are projected to face around a 20% profit decline [1][4]. - The overall liquor industry is anticipated to face a more than 20% decline in sales volume due to external demand shocks [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The retail sales growth of consumer goods has significantly slowed, particularly in the catering sector, which has nearly stagnated, directly impacting liquor consumption [1][8]. - The average turnover days for inventory in the industry are high, indicating a pressing need for companies to manage inventory effectively amid changing consumer demand [10]. Group 3: Company Responses - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies to alleviate channel pressure, including adjusting inventory and reducing expenses to enhance operational efficiency [6][9]. - Wuliangye acknowledged the challenges in the market during the recent holiday season but emphasized that official data should be awaited for a clearer picture [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards more rational consumption, with increased sensitivity to prices and a decline in the enthusiasm for high-priced products [9]. - The demand is shifting from traditional business banquets to more casual settings, such as gatherings with friends and family, prompting companies to adjust their product offerings [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term profit declines, the fundamentals of the liquor industry, especially for leading companies, remain intact, with a potential shift towards quality-focused growth rather than mere scale expansion [11]. - The upcoming Q3 reports are expected to provide critical insights into how companies are navigating the current challenges and adapting to market changes [11].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior during the National Day holiday in China, where camping has emerged as a popular alternative to expensive accommodations, reflecting a new consumption value system focused on meaningful experiences rather than luxury [1][2]. Group 1: Changing Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly opting for camping as a cost-effective way to enjoy nature, with tent and sleeping bag sales reportedly increasing by 200% during the holiday period [2][4]. - This trend signifies a move from traditional luxury spending to prioritizing authentic experiences, as consumers seek the best value for their money [3][4]. - Social media plays a crucial role in this shift, with users sharing their camping experiences and tips, further promoting the camping lifestyle [3][4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The outdoor market in China is supported by three long-term growth drivers: a per capita GDP exceeding $10,000, favorable government policies promoting sports and outdoor activities, and the expansion of outdoor infrastructure [4][6]. - Historical precedents from markets in the U.S. and Japan suggest that China is now poised for a widespread adoption of outdoor activities [4][6]. Group 3: Lifestyle Transformation - Outdoor activities are evolving from occasional leisure pursuits to a daily lifestyle choice, with the definition of "outdoor" expanding to include urban camping and gardening [7][9]. - Brands are responding to this trend by creating products that blend outdoor functionality with everyday use, indicating a blurring of lines between urban and natural environments [9]. Group 4: Sustainability Trends - The connection with nature fosters a shift towards sustainable consumption, with outdoor enthusiasts showing a strong inclination towards eco-friendly products [11]. - A report indicates that 89% of outdoor enthusiasts believe they have a stronger environmental awareness, and 95% agree that outdoor living should focus on sustainability [11]. - Brands are increasingly competing on sustainability, with products made from recyclable materials and a focus on environmental impact becoming essential in the outdoor market [11]. Group 5: Future Implications - The popularity of camping represents not just a consumer choice but a declaration of values, as individuals seek more meaningful and sustainable lifestyles [12]. - As outdoor living becomes more integrated into daily life, a new consumer ethic is emerging, where spending is not just about fulfilling needs but also about expressing values [12].

Core Insights - Wanchen Group has submitted an application for a mainboard listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become a dual-listed company alongside its competitor, Mingming Hen Mang, which has already surpassed 20,000 stores [2][3] - The Chinese hard discount retail industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.8% from 2024 to 2029, with the market size expected to exceed 1,013.8 billion yuan by 2029 [2] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted from a diverse array of brands to a duopoly, with Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang emerging as the two dominant players in the hard discount sector [3][7] - Wanchen Group, founded in 2011, has expanded its brand portfolio through acquisitions and partnerships, leading to a significant increase in store count and revenue [4][5] - Mingming Hen Mang has also strengthened its position by merging with Zhao Yiming Snacks, creating the largest snack chain in the industry with over 6,500 stores [6][7] Group 2: Business Model and Growth Strategies - The core business model of hard discount chains focuses on eliminating intermediaries, allowing for direct sourcing from manufacturers and offering lower prices to consumers [8] - Both Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang are enhancing their supply chain efficiency and cost control to improve profitability, with Wanchen Group's revenue projected to reach 32.329 billion yuan in 2024 [4][10] - The development of private label products is a key strategy for both companies to increase profit margins and establish brand identity [11][10] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The hard discount retail sector is witnessing increased interest from major e-commerce players like JD.com and Meituan, indicating a shift towards offline retail strategies [13][15] - The market is transitioning from a focus on price wars to efficiency wars, with supply chain optimization and digital capabilities becoming critical for success [17] - The overall retail landscape is evolving, with hard discount chains reshaping consumer perceptions of value and quality, moving from "availability" to "quality" [16][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the rapid growth of discount retail, with Sandstone (Changsha) Outlet achieving continuous revenue growth for seven years, reaching sales of 1.86 billion yuan in 2024, and targeting 2 billion yuan by 2025, supported by 1.5 million members [1] - The China National Department Store Association reports that the national outlet sales in 2024 reached 239 billion yuan, showing a 4% increase despite a decline in traditional supermarket sales, driven by the demand for "constant discounts" [3] - The hard discount market in China surpassed 200 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8% penetration rate, indicating significant growth potential compared to mature markets like Germany and Japan [3] Group 2 - Online discount platforms like Vipshop are thriving, with a 15% year-on-year increase in active SVIP users in Q2, contributing over half of the online sales, reflecting the alignment with young consumers' philosophy of value [5] - Vipshop collaborates with over 46,000 brands, including luxury labels, and has successfully implemented a "brand + discount" model, evidenced by significant sales during limited-time events [5] - The evolution of discount retail represents a shift towards rational consumption and value reconstruction, with various business models emphasizing the principle of "good products at affordable prices" [7]

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant shift towards "light bottle liquor," which was previously considered low-end, but is now becoming a competitive focus for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye. This change reflects deeper industry transformations and consumer behavior shifts [2][6][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The light bottle liquor market reached a scale of over 150 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18%, significantly outpacing the average growth of the white liquor industry [2] - The traditional perception of liquor consumption is changing from a focus on price and packaging to a more rational evaluation of quality and value, aligning with the trend of "drinking less but drinking better" [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The consumer demographic for light bottle liquor is increasingly younger, with over 40% of consumers aged 25-35, who prioritize taste, health attributes, and cultural identity over price [4] - Light bottle liquor is gaining popularity in casual social settings, such as small gatherings, contrasting with traditional liquor's reliance on formal occasions [4] Group 3: Quality and Technology - The rise of light bottle liquor is attributed to advancements in fermentation technology and intelligent brewing processes, leading to significant improvements in taste and quality [5] - Major brands are adopting a "cost reduction through simplified packaging" strategy, using the same base liquor as high-end products to enhance competitiveness [5] Group 4: Strategic Responses from Major Brands - Major liquor companies are entering the light bottle liquor market to address short-term performance pressures and to explore new growth avenues as the high-end market becomes saturated [7][8] - The light bottle liquor segment offers a "thin profit, high turnover" model, which is appealing in the current market environment [7] Group 5: Industry Restructuring - The market structure is shifting from a "spindle-shaped" model, dominated by mid-range products, to a "dumbbell-shaped" model, with a focus on ultra-high-end and high-value light bottle liquors [10] - The entry of major brands into the light bottle liquor market is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, potentially squeezing out smaller brands that cannot establish a competitive advantage [10] Group 6: Challenges Ahead - Major brands face challenges such as consumer price expectations, where high-end brand images may hinder the acceptance of light bottle liquor pricing [13] - Ensuring consistent quality across mass-produced light bottle liquors is critical, as any quality issues could damage brand reputation [14] - Local brands, which have a strong understanding of regional consumer preferences, pose a competitive threat to major brands entering the light bottle liquor market [15] Group 7: Future Outlook - The future competition in the light bottle liquor market will focus on quality enhancement, targeted product offerings for specific consumer segments, and reinforcing brand cultural values [17][18][19] - The shift towards light bottle liquor represents a broader redefinition of value in the white liquor industry, moving from a focus on price and packaging to quality, consumer engagement, and experience [20]

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, characterized by a lack of expected V-shaped recovery and a new normal of "slowing overall volume and structural differentiation" [1][12] - The performance of Qinhai Huzhu Tianyoude Qingke Liquor Co., Ltd. (Tianyoude Liquor) reflects broader industry trends, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [1][5] - Despite challenges, Tianyoude Liquor has shown resilience through improved operating cash flow, indicating effective supply chain and channel management [2][8] Industry Dynamics - The "Matthew Effect" in the white liquor industry is intensifying, leading to pronounced tier differentiation among companies [3] - The growth model has shifted from "volume and price increase" to "volume decrease and stable price," driven by changes in population structure and consumer health awareness [3] - Consumers are becoming more rational, focusing on product value rather than brand prestige, prompting companies to reassess their product strategies [3][5] Company Strategies - Tianyoude Liquor has adopted a multi-dimensional strategy to navigate market pressures, focusing on product coverage across all price segments and enhancing market penetration in weaker areas [5][6] - The company has launched innovative promotional activities targeting core consumption scenarios, such as the "banquet market" in Qinghai [5][6] - A dual strategy of "uphill" and "downhill" is being implemented, enhancing brand presence in high-end segments while expanding product offerings in lower price ranges [6][11] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianyoude Liquor reported a revenue of 674 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.24%, and a net profit of 51.46 million yuan, down 35.37% [1][8] - The company's operating cash flow net amount increased significantly by 136.47%, reflecting effective management of supply chain and channel funds [2][8] - The revenue from Qingke liquor products reached 570 million yuan, accounting for 99.06% of total liquor manufacturing revenue [6] Brand Development - Tianyoude Liquor is focusing on brand elevation through cultural initiatives and lifestyle marketing, aiming to enhance brand affinity and cultural content output [9][12] - The company has successfully engaged younger consumers with innovative products and marketing strategies, such as the "Drunk Beautiful Mountain Festival" [9][12] - Marketing efforts have shifted from traditional product-focused advertising to lifestyle-oriented campaigns, emphasizing the experience associated with the product [9][12] Future Outlook - The strategic choices of liquor companies will determine their future development paths amid industry differentiation [10][11] - For regional leaders like Tianyoude, focusing on core markets and products while avoiding blind national expansion is crucial [11] - Long-term innovation in product categories, taste, and marketing strategies will be essential for capturing the next generation of consumers [11][12]