1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on naked long positions in crude oil, going long on volatility before the holiday, and holding calendar spreads [1]. Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil - WTI November crude futures closed down $0.01/barrel, a 0.02% decline, at $64.98/barrel; Brent November crude futures closed up $0.11/barrel, a 0.16% increase, at $69.42/barrel; SC2511 crude futures closed up 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.45% increase, at 491.10 yuan/barrel [1]. 2. Main Regional Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil arbitrage scenarios are presented, including different target markets, benchmark crudes, alternative crudes, and their corresponding values and statuses. For example, in the USGC market, when using WTI as the benchmark and Arab Extra as the alternative, the value is -$5.93/barrel and the status is "Closed" [2]. 3. Refined Oil Arbitrage - Various refined oil arbitrage routes and scenarios are detailed, such as gasoline from Europe to New York with an open status and a value of $1.78/barrel, using MR tankers for transportation and involving multiple adjustments and costs [8]. 4. Refinery Profits - Refinery profit calculations for different regions are provided, including USGC, USAC, Midwest, Rotterdam, Mediterranean, Singapore, etc. Each region has specific refinery configurations, benchmark crudes, and calculation methods [10]. 5. Key Market News - Trump urged Turkey's Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [11]. - Trump had a good talk about the Gaza issue and mentioned that Hungary, as a land - locked country, can only buy oil from Russia [12]. - Iraq's central government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region reached a "historic agreement" on September 25, 2025, where the central government's oil ministry will receive and export crude oil from the region's oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [14]. - Iran's vice - president stated that Iran will not abandon its nuclear program and will jointly build new nuclear power plants with Russia. Russia's state atomic energy company is continuing the construction of the second and third units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant [14]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will ban diesel exports until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban until the end of the year [14]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong trends respectively [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, with fundamental factors and geopolitical sanctions risks diverging. The U.S. President Trump called on European countries to "stop buying" Russian oil, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The EU's sanctions on Russia targeted shadow fleets, Russian banks, and Russian oil buyers. Russia's refined oil exports declined significantly due to drone attacks, while its crude oil net exports remained high. Iran's crude oil exports did not decline. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with the absolute level similar to that in 2019, the highest in the past five years. In September's preliminary data, OPEC's crude oil net exports rebounded significantly. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits were divided, with U.S. refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operations rising overall, and European and American refinery operations declining. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous levels, the fundamentals will turn to the off - season, and the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 17 - 23, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $62.28 - $64.05, with a change of $1.13; BRENT prices fluctuated from $66.57 - $67.95, with a change of $1.06; DUBAI prices fluctuated from $69.74 - $70.50, with a change of $0.07. Other related product prices such as domestic gasoline, diesel, and various oil - related spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defense agreement, which is unlikely to change Saudi Arabia's energy relations with India. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in July decreased by 551,000 barrels per day to 9.201 million barrels per day. Iran's Foreign Minister set off for New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly, and Iran will hold foreign - minister - level talks with Germany, France, and the UK [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%; the four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. From September 12 - 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased, domestic gasoline and diesel production increased, inventories increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4][5].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released on September 22, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - It provides price data from September 15 - 19, 2025, for various oil - related products and analyzes daily news, regional fundamentals, and presents a weekly view [3][5][6] Group 2: Price Data Changes Crude Oil and Related Products - WTI decreased by $0.89 from September 15 - 19, 2025; BRENT decreased by $0.76; DUBAI decreased by $0.35 [3] - SC decreased by 4.80; OMAN decreased by 1.30 [3] Refined Oil and Other Products - Domestic gasoline decreased by $50.00; domestic diesel decreased by $28.00 [3] - Japan naphtha CFR dropped by 2.95; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by 0.2 [3] Group 3: Daily News - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany [4] - Russia called the EU's reduction of Russian energy imports a "self - harm" behavior [4] - Cuba condemned the US for trying to seize Venezuela's resources through its actions in the Caribbean [5] - The UN Security Council vetoed the resolution to extend Iran's sanctions exemption, and sanctions may resume if no agreement is reached by September 27 [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 253.2 thousand barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 1.3 thousand barrels [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels, a 2.19% decline [6] - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 504 thousand barrels, a 0.12% increase [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.69% year - on - year [6] - From September 12 - 18, the main refinery operating rate fluctuated, Shandong local refinery operating rate increased, domestic production of gasoline and diesel rose, and their inventories also increased [6] Group 5: Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at a high level, with fundamental and geopolitical factors diverging [6] - The EU's sanctions on Russia target shadow fleets, Russian banks, and oil buyers; Russian refined oil exports decreased by about 300 thousand barrels per day, while crude oil net exports increased by about 9% year - on - year [6] - Iranian crude oil exports did not decline; OPEC crude oil net exports increased by 11% year - on - year in September [6] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased significantly [6] - Global refinery profits were divided, with US refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operating rates rising, and European and American refinery operating rates falling [6] - In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200 thousand barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 180 - 250 thousand barrels per day in 2026 [6] - It is expected that the absolute price center in Q4 will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that oil prices closed higher this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy, urging G7 allies to impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases. Fundamentally, the global oil market is in a state of inventory build - up, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined products inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200,000 barrels per day in the fourth - quarter oil balance sheet, and an expected oversupply of 180,000 - 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The fundamentals are turning to the off - season, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The report expects the absolute price center in the fourth quarter to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential influence on Russian supply [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $0.32, BRENT by $0.62, and DUBAI by $0.35. Other related refined products and by - products also showed various price changes. For example, domestic gasoline prices decreased by $50, and domestic diesel prices decreased by $35 [3]. 3.2 News - Trump stated that when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, he will impose major sanctions on Russia, aiming to end the Russia - Ukraine war and save lives. He also threatened new economic sanctions on Russia due to the stalled cease - fire negotiation efforts [3]. - The US proposed that the G7 impose extensive sanctions on Russian energy, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil purchases and the creation of a legal way to confiscate frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine's defense [3]. - The US Energy Secretary said the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months and replace it with US LNG [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.94%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a 1.97% increase year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels, with a growth rate of 0.13%. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day [4]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels of oil per month until August 2026, worsening the fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet. Brent and WTI crude oil spreads weakened, while the Dubai near - month spread strengthened. Refining margins in Europe and the US increased significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Globally, oil product inventories increased slightly. The fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring crude oil spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fall to a central range of $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on Iran and Russia's production cuts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 4 to 10, 2025, WTI prices increased by $1.04, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.91. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, HO - BRT, etc., also showed corresponding changes. For domestic data, SC increased by 3.40, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 68.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Israel's attack and US pressure on the EU pushed up oil prices. The reaction of Qatar is crucial. Meanwhile, the risk of Russian supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks and Western sanctions also supported oil prices. Russia's crude oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [3] 3. Regional Fundamentals - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 4. EIA Report - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.97% year - on - year [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries, as well as the US sanctions on Russia. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly. The US EIA commercial inventory decreased, while diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, and diesel inventories in the US and China increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations were volatile, with Shandong local refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month - on - month, leaving limited room to boost operations further. The current peak season for crude oil demand, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline recently. In the medium term, the absolute prices of crude oil face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US and its allies condemned Iran's intelligence agency for creating increasing national threats in their countries [3]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss issues such as the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Canadian oil and gas producer Cenovus Energy lowered its annual upstream production forecast due to the temporary closure of its Rush Lake facility. Its upstream production in the second quarter was lower than the previous year, while downstream oil processing volume increased [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [3][4]. - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase in the week of July 25. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4][5]. - The average four - week supply of US refined oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. In China, the production of gasoline and diesel at refineries decreased, while inventories increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined month - on - month [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining and the absolute prices dropping on Friday. The market is focused on US trade negotiations and sanctions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, and refinery profits declined slightly but were still high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and refinery profits weakened. The peak - season factors for crude oil demand have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventory [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries as the US tariff deadline approaches. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, with US EIA commercial inventories and ARA and Singapore diesel inventories de - stocking, while US and domestic diesel inventories increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and short - term diesel inventories [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - US President Trump stated that he is not worried about the oil issue if sanctions are imposed on Russia. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick mentioned that Trump accepts that natural resources will not face tariffs in EU trade. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current round of production restoration. The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 25 was 1.539 million barrels, compared with an expected - 2.5 million barrels and a previous value of - 0.577 million barrels [3] 2. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.75%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.576 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.05%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel at Chinese refineries decreased, and the inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [3] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week. The market focuses on US trade negotiations and potential sanctions on Russia. Globally, oil product inventories decreased slightly, and refinery profits declined slightly. In China, the operating rate fluctuated, and refinery inventories increased, with profits weakening. The short - term supply and demand of crude oil are supported by factors such as the peak demand season, high diesel profits, and potential US sanctions on Russia, but the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly. US EIA commercial inventories decreased, while diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, and those in the US and China increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year-on-year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong local refineries increasing production. Recently, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month-on-month, limiting the room for further boosting operations. The current peak season for crude oil demand, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near-term supply and demand of crude oil. However, the peak season factors have been largely realized, and the month spreads have recently started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non-OPEC production and near-term diesel inventories [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From July 21 - 25, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.87, BRENT by $0.74, and DUBAI by $0.12. The SC price increased by 4.00, and OMAN decreased by $0.69. Other related oil product prices also showed various changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Iran and three European countries agreed to restart nuclear negotiations as soon as possible. Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an EU agreement. OPEC clarified that the JMMC meeting on July 28 has no decision - making power on production levels. Venezuela's PDVSA is ready to resume joint - venture work under certain conditions. Trump is considering secondary sanctions on Russia, and Russian western port oil loading is expected to drop by 8% in August [3][4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 33.7万桶/日, domestic production decreased by 10.2万桶, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 316.9万桶 (0.75%), and strategic petroleum reserve decreased by 20.0万桶 (0.05%). US crude product four - week average supply increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased by 0.26%, Shandong local refinery operating rate increased by 1.17%. Chinese refinery output of gasoline decreased and diesel increased, with gasoline inventory rising and diesel inventory falling. Both main and local refinery comprehensive profits decreased month - on - month [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. Policy-wise, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. On the supply side, the Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week-on-week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week-on-week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, stating that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, play the role of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China - US relations [3]. - Iran will hold a tri - party meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized European countries for using the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism as a tool to threaten Iran [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories falling. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries both declined on a week - on - week basis [5]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining slightly and global oil inventories increasing slightly [6]. - Policy: The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and the decision to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude [6]. - Supply: The Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption [6]. - Fundamentals: Global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. Global refinery profits strengthened on a week - on - week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week - on - week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations [6]. - Outlook: During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [18]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day [18]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period last year [18]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07% [18]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [18].