专题：聚焦2025年第三季度美股财报 蔚来（NYSE： NIO； HKEX： 9866； SGX： NIO）今日发布了截至9月30日的2025年第三季度财报： 总营收为217.939亿元，同比增长16.7%，环比增长14.7%。净亏损34.805亿元，同比减亏31.2%，环比减 亏30.3%。不按美国通用会计准则，调整后的净亏损为27.351亿元，同比减亏38.0%，环比减亏33.7%。 详见： 蔚来第三季度营收218亿元 经调净亏损27亿元 财报发布后，蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌，CFO曲玉等高管出席了随后召开的电话会议，对财报进 行了解读，并回答了分析师提问。 以下是分析师问答环节部分内容： 摩根士丹利分析师Tim Hsiao：我的第一个问题有关公司的盈亏平衡目标。我们注意到在近期的新闻 里，管理层给出的第四季度预期交付量为12万到12.5万台，比管理层之前设定的15万台目标下降了约 20%。我的问题是，在当前情况下，公司第四季度的盈亏平衡目标会受到怎样的影响？考虑到季节性需 求和政策环境的不确定性，管理层预计销量何时才能回到单月5万台的水平？ 李斌：实现第四季度盈利我们还是有信心的，同时这也是我们的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the Chinese food delivery market is at a critical turning point, with overall order volume declining due to reduced subsidies and seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The total daily order volume in the food delivery market has decreased from 151 million in September to a projected 141 million in November [2]. - The market share of Meituan has dropped to 50% (approximately 71 million daily orders), while Alibaba holds 42% (about 59 million daily orders), and JD.com has 8% (around 11 million daily orders) [2]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - Meituan's average loss per order has improved from 1.8 yuan in September to an expected 1.2 yuan in November, while Alibaba's loss per order is projected to be 3.0 yuan in November, and JD.com's is even higher at 4.8 yuan [4]. - Meituan is expected to achieve breakeven by mid-2026, with profits of 0.4-0.5 yuan per order in the second half of 2026, while Alibaba may still incur losses but will gradually narrow them [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Meituan is focusing on managing high-frequency, quality memberships and providing substantial coupon packages to enhance customer loyalty [5]. - Alibaba plans to continue significant investments in its food delivery and flash purchase businesses, aiming for breakeven and improving conversion rates from 2% to 4-5% [5]. - JD.com is concentrating on key flash purchase categories like 3C digital products and maternal and infant goods, serving its JD Plus members with a more focused strategy [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The intense subsidy competition is expected to ease by the first quarter of 2026, driven by regulatory scrutiny, seasonal demand fluctuations, and the unsustainability of high subsidies in the face of large order volumes [8].

Core Insights - Nuo Cheng Jian Hua reported a significant revenue increase of 59.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.12 billion yuan, primarily driven by the sales growth of its core product, the BTK inhibitor Aobutini (Yinokai®) [2][5] - The company expects to achieve breakeven for the entire year of 2025, two years ahead of its profitability target, supported by strong revenue growth and improved cost efficiency [2][5] Financial Performance - Aobutini's revenue for the first three quarters increased by 45.8% year-on-year, totaling 1.01 billion yuan, surpassing the total revenue for the previous year [2] - The company's loss narrowed significantly by 74.8%, down to 70 million yuan, due to rapid revenue growth and enhanced cost management [2] Globalization Strategy - Nuo Cheng Jian Hua is accelerating its globalization efforts, having completed two major licensing agreements this year, including a significant deal with Zenas for Aobutini and other autoimmune pipeline products [3][4] - The agreement with Zenas includes an upfront payment of 100 million USD and potential milestone payments, with the total deal value exceeding 2 billion USD [3] Product Pipeline and Market Position - The company is strengthening its leadership in the hematological oncology market with Aobutini, Tanshizhu Single Antibody (Mingnuokai®), and Mesutoclax, covering multiple indications [6] - Aobutini has been approved for first-line treatment of CLL/SLL, enhancing its market position [6][7] - Tanshizhu Single Antibody has been fully commercialized in China, providing a new treatment option for R/R DLBCL patients [8] Clinical Development - Mesutoclax is undergoing multiple clinical trials, showing significant potential in treating CLL/SLL and AML, with promising efficacy and safety data [9][10] - The company is advancing several Phase III clinical trials for autoimmune diseases, including Aobutini for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) and immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) [12][14] Innovation and R&D - Nuo Cheng Jian Hua is committed to innovation, with a 9.9% increase in R&D expenses, reaching 680 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [19] - The company plans to submit 5 to 7 clinical trial applications for new drug candidates in 2026, focusing on oncology and autoimmune diseases [20]

Core Viewpoint - NIO is experiencing a potential turnaround with the successful market performance of its new models, the L90 and the next-generation ES8, leading to increased confidence in achieving breakeven in Q4 [2][4][9] Group 1: Market Performance - The L90 model, launched on August 1, has received positive consumer feedback, achieving over 10,000 deliveries in its first month, making it the fastest-selling model in NIO's history [6] - The next-generation ES8, which began pre-sales on August 21, is also seeing strong demand, with order numbers reportedly surpassing those of the L90 [6][8] - In August, NIO's sales exceeded 31,000 units, surpassing Li Auto alongside XPeng, indicating a shift in the rankings among new energy vehicle manufacturers [7] Group 2: Financial Outlook - NIO reported Q2 revenue of 19.009 billion yuan, a 57.9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 9% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted net loss of 4.1 billion yuan [7] - For Q3, NIO expects to deliver between 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles, projecting revenue between 21.81 billion to 22.88 billion yuan, both figures representing historical highs [7] - The company aims for a monthly delivery target of 50,000 vehicles in Q4, which would align with the current monthly sales levels of leading competitors [8] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - NIO is focusing on maintaining a high average selling price while increasing the proportion of high-priced models, which is expected to raise the gross margin to 16%-17% in Q4 [10] - The company has implemented a "basic operating unit" mechanism to improve efficiency in R&D spending, aiming to reduce quarterly R&D expenses to between 2 billion to 2.5 billion yuan while maintaining effectiveness [10][11] - NIO's multi-brand strategy, including NIO, Ladao, and Firefly, is showing collaborative advantages, allowing the company to reach a broader customer base [11] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the positive indicators, NIO faces significant challenges, including the need to prove its profitability in Q4, which is crucial for brand strength and operational sustainability [9][10] - The company acknowledges the competitive landscape and external factors, such as lithium carbonate prices and new product launches from competitors, which could impact its targets [10] - NIO's CEO emphasizes the importance of adapting product definitions and maintaining a long-term technological vision to navigate the evolving market landscape [12][13]

Core Insights - NIO is signaling a recovery phase as it reports improved performance metrics and aims for non-GAAP breakeven by Q4 2025 [1][5][6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, NIO delivered 72,056 vehicles, a year-over-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 71.2% [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2025 reached 19.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.0% and a quarter-over-quarter surge of 57.9% [1] - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 10%, up from 9.7% in Q2 2024 and 7.6% in Q1 2025 [1] - Net loss narrowed to 4.995 billion yuan, a year-over-year reduction of 1.0% and a quarter-over-quarter reduction of 26.0% [1] - NIO expects Q3 2025 vehicle deliveries between 87,000 and 91,000, with revenue projected between 21.812 billion and 22.876 billion yuan, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 16.8% to 22.5% [1] Product Performance - NIO's new models, the L90 and ES8, are experiencing strong demand, with L90 achieving over 10,000 deliveries in its first month [3][4] - In August, NIO's total deliveries reached 10,525 units, with the L90 and ES8 contributing significantly to sales growth [3] - The company plans to prioritize the delivery of L90 and ES8, delaying the launch of the L80 to next year to ensure capacity for these models [4] Production and Capacity - NIO aims for a production target of 15,000 units for the L90 in October, with a total production goal of 56,000 units across its brands in Q4 [4] - The company is working to alleviate production constraints, particularly in battery supply, which is expected to improve in October [4] Cost Management and Profitability Goals - NIO's gross margin target for Q4 is set between 16% and 17%, with a long-term goal of achieving a gross margin of 20% [5][6] - The company reported a gross profit of 1.898 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 12.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 106.3% [5] - NIO's vehicle profit margin was 10.3% in Q2 2025, with expectations for improvement as new models are fully integrated into production [5] Organizational Efficiency - NIO has implemented a new operational structure called Cell Business Unit (CBU) to enhance efficiency and accountability across its operations [7] - The company reported a 5.5% year-over-year increase in sales, general, and administrative expenses, but a 9.9% quarter-over-quarter decrease, indicating improved cost management [7] Research and Development - NIO's R&D expenses for Q2 2025 were 3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.6% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.5% [8] - The company plans to maintain R&D investments of 2 billion to 2.5 billion yuan per quarter to ensure long-term competitiveness [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that NIO aims to achieve a gross margin of 16% to 17% in order to reach breakeven by the fourth quarter of this year [2] - NIO's CFO, Qu Yu, announced that the Lido L90 and the new ES8 will achieve full quarterly deliveries in Q4 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS indicates that SOTON (02498) exceeded expectations in its second-quarter performance, achieving a gross margin of 28%, surpassing the target of 25% due to the mass production of the MX series and cost control measures [1] Financial Performance - SOTON's gross margin reached 28%, which is higher than the expected 25% [1] - The management has adopted a more optimistic outlook and reaffirmed the goal of achieving breakeven by the second half of 2025 [1] Growth Drivers - Anticipated growth drivers for 2026 include the mass production of the EM platform, expansion of BYD-related businesses, acquisition of new clients, and orders in the robotics business [1] Earnings Forecast - Based on the revised gross margin predictions, the earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 22% and 16% respectively [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 45 to HKD 50 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Xiaomi's Q2 revenue and adjusted profit largely met market expectations [1] - The gross margin for electric vehicles reached 26.4% in Q2, driven by higher average selling prices and economies of scale, with expectations for an increase to 28% in Q3 [1] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business may achieve breakeven on a quarterly or monthly basis in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - Due to a limited number of product launches, the company is cautious about Xiaomi's Q3 shipment volume, projecting it to be 42.2 million units, with an annual total of 172 million units [1] - This annual projection is slightly below Xiaomi's target of 170 to 175 million units [1] - Based on the revised gross margin forecast for electric vehicles, the company has raised its earnings per share estimates for Xiaomi for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 9% [1] - The target price for Xiaomi has been increased from HKD 72 to HKD 76, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO reported its Q1 2025 financial results, showing a revenue of 12.0347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.9.%. The net loss was 6.750 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase in loss of 30.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease in loss of 5.1% [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 12.0347 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.9% [1][2]. - The net loss for the quarter was 6.750 billion yuan, which is a 30.2% increase in loss year-on-year, but a 5.1% decrease in loss quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - Adjusted net loss, not in accordance with GAAP, was 6.2791 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase in loss of 28.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease in loss of 5.2% [1]. Vehicle Delivery and Production - NIO delivered 42,094 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40% [2]. - The company provided guidance for Q2 deliveries between 72,000 and 75,000 vehicles, indicating a year-on-year growth of 25.5% to 30.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71% to 78% [2]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented a series of cost-cutting measures since March, focusing on projects without investment returns and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5]. - R&D expenses are targeted to increase by 15% in Q2, with a goal to keep Q4 R&D expenses between 2 billion and 2.5 billion yuan [5]. - The company aims to achieve a 20% to 25% improvement in overall efficiency compared to the same quarter last year [5]. Profitability Outlook - NIO expects to achieve a gross margin exceeding 20% in Q4 2025, with a monthly sales target of 25,000 units, representing a 20% increase from the previous year [4]. - The company aims for the sales, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) to account for about 10% of total sales by Q4, aligning with its goal of reaching breakeven [6].

Core Insights - NIO reported Q1 2025 revenue of 12.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 21%, but a net loss of 6.75 billion yuan, widening by 30.19% compared to the previous year [2] - The adjusted net loss was 6.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [2] - Gross profit for the quarter was 920 million yuan, up 88.5% year-on-year, but down 60.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 7.6% [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries reached 42,094 units, a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [2] - The company expects Q2 deliveries to be between 72,000 and 75,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.5% to 30.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71% to 78% [2] - R&D expenses for Q1 were 3.18 billion yuan, with a target to achieve breakeven in Q4 2025, leading to R&D expenses of 2 to 2.5 billion yuan for that quarter [3] Product and Market Strategy - NIO launched several new models in May, including the new ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5T, and completed their market introduction and delivery [3] - The company has built a total of 3,404 battery swap stations, 4,607 charging stations, and 26,441 charging piles globally, connecting to over 1.86 million third-party charging piles as of May 31 [3] - NIO's chairman, Li Bin, indicated that the brand could achieve a steady monthly sales volume of 25,000 units in Q4, a 20% increase from the previous year, with expectations for a significant improvement in gross margin [2]