受新年"开门红"行情推动，市场交投持续活跃，万得全A日均成交额逐步放量至2.85万亿元，周五单日 成交额突破3万亿元，日均成交额较上周提升约34%，显示增量资金入场意愿明显增强。从个股层面 看，市场赚钱效应同步修复，本周万得全A上涨个股的日均占比约为59.87%，个股普涨与结构性机会并 存，风险偏好较前期显著回升。 本周市场新高行情中，市场风险偏好高企叠加利好事件催化，推动科技持续成为强势主线。 从行业层面看，传媒(13.11%)、计算机(8.50%)、电子(7.74%)涨幅位居申万一级行业前列。其中，脑机 接口主题指数周度收涨18.95%，快手、拼多多、小红书等多个互联网平台主题指数周度涨幅超过10%， 服务机器人(6.67%)、机器人(4.91%)主题指数亦均放量上行，反映科技主线内部呈现出明显的扩散效 应。除科技板块外，国防军工与有色金属同样对市场形成重要支撑。 本周国防军工行业强势上涨13.63%，一方面受美委冲突事件发酵、美股军工走强对标影响，另一方面 与商业航天主题持续升温有关。近期国防科工局会议明确促进商业航天发展，叠加产业头部企业发射计 划密集落地，多重利好推动商业航天指数周度涨幅达13.82 ...

A股三大股指集体低开，沪指跌0.2%，创业板指跌0.63%。盘面上，光刻机、脑机接口、医药板块涨幅 居前，有色金属、存储芯片、稀土永磁板块跌幅靠前。 东方证券认为，"十五五"规划将可控核聚变明确纳入国家未来产业体系，标志着其从前沿科学探索正式 升级为战略性科技攻关方向，作为未来产业的重要分支，预计今年投资机会仍然巨大。市场层面来看， 沪综指临近4100点后出现小幅震荡，仍是为了冲关做好准备，尽管上行速度受到延缓，但不影响后市叩 关，未来产业仍是最主要的投资方向。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 中泰证券：科技主线仍有一定延续性 中泰证券表示，展望后市，对科技主线保持谨慎乐观，需布局有较强逻辑的细分领域。1月资金面可能 受税期、信贷投放等影响而阶段性收紧，导致市场波动加大，形成逢低布局的窗口期。后续随着资金面 季节性宽松及产业催化的持续，弹性较高的科技板块有望迎来主升行情。在指数高位震荡、赚钱效应阶 段性走弱的背景下，配置策略更应强调方向选择与节奏控制。就具体方向而言，当前阶段仍可重点关注 机器人、体育及非银板块，而对商业航天等高拥挤方向则不宜盲目追高。 东方证券：沪指临近4100点后上行速度 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977), which saw a turnover of 5.03% and a transaction volume of 441 million yuan, with the ChiNext Index (399006) rising by 2.85% [1] - The constituent stocks of the ChiNext ETF, such as Lepu Medical (300003) and BlueFocus Communication Group (300058), experienced significant gains, with increases of 19.99% and 19.97% respectively [1] - The ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) received substantial capital inflow, with a net subscription of nearly 50 million shares throughout the day [1] Group 2 - Over the past two weeks, the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) has seen a growth in scale of 339 million yuan and an increase of 58 million shares [2] - In the last five days, the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 270 million yuan [2] - The fund has a low management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in the market for index funds [2] Group 3 - Recent stock buybacks by major companies like CATL and Kweichow Moutai reflect confidence in their development, with CATL repurchasing approximately 15.99 million shares for about 4.39 billion yuan [2] - Kweichow Moutai announced a buyback of 87,059 shares for a total of 120 million yuan, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [3] - Institutional views suggest that the current market risk appetite remains high, providing room for high-growth technology themes to continue rising [3] Group 4 - The report mentions various related products, including the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF Tianhong and the A500 ETF Tianhong, which cater to different investment strategies [4]

中泰证券（600918）发布研究报告称，从2025全年复盘视角看A股，科技是明显主线，但四季度动能有 所放缓。展望后市，对科技主线保持谨慎乐观，需布局有较强逻辑的细分领域。首先，从资金面演变 看，当前科技行情有逢低布局机会。1月资金面可能受税期、信贷投放等影响而阶段性收紧，导致市场 波动加大，形成逢低布局的窗口期。后续随着资金面季节性宽松及产业催化的持续，弹性较高的科技板 块有望迎来主升行情。其次，在细分领域中，机器人板块有望迎来资金面与产业逻辑双重共振机会。第 三，商业航天板块需重点警惕高位拥挤风险。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 一、如何判断当前市场科技主线的延续性? 上周A股市场整体呈现震荡偏弱格局，成交放量但赚钱效应明显回落，显示资金在年末窗口期进入主动 结构调整阶段。上周是2025年最后一个交易周，从主要指数表现来看，上证指数在12月29日录得9连阳 后，30-31日维持高位震荡，上周累计上涨0.13%，而万得全A、沪深300和中证2000指数则分别下跌 0.33%、0.59%和0.10%。从成交情况来看，上周万得全A日均成交额放量至2.13万亿元，较上周有所增 加，表明跨年窗口期资金并未明显撤离。但成交 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：年初市场科技主线能否延续？ ——信用业务周报 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2026 年 01 月 05 日 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收 吕品：2025 年债市启示录：框架的贫 穷》2026-01-05 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观 张德礼：大国博弈，科技领航》 2025-12-30 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行 戴志锋：本轮财富管理特点与金融机 构：分化、分层与匹配与上轮财富管 理发展期的比较分析》2025-12-29 今日预览 今日重点>> 【策略】徐驰：年初市场科技主线能否延续？——信用业务周报 20260105 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【策略】徐驰：年初市场科技主线能否延续？——信用业务周报 20260105 一、如何判断当前市场科技主线的延续性？ 上周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡偏弱格局，成交放量但赚钱效应明显回落，显示资金在年末窗口期进 入主动结构调整阶段。上周是 2025 年最后一个交易周，从主要 ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 年初市场科技主线能否延续？ 2026年1月5日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 2 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 【市场观察】如何判断当前市场科技主线的延续性？ ➢ 一、如何判断当前市场科技主线的延续性？ 3 ➢ 上周A股市场整体呈现震荡偏弱格局，成交放量但赚钱效应明显回落，显示资金在年 末窗口期进入主动结构调整阶段。上周是2025年最后一个交易周，从主要指数表现来 看，上证指数在12月29日录得9连阳后，30-31日维持高位震荡，上周累计上涨0.13% ，而万得全A、沪深300和中证2000指数则分别下跌0.33%、0.59%和0.10%。从成交情 况来看，上周万得全A日均成交额放量至2.13万亿元，较上周有所增加，表明跨年窗 口期资金并未明显撤离。但成交放量并未转化为广泛的赚钱效应，从个股层面来看， 上周万得全A上涨个股日均占比约为38.46%，相较上周显著回落，赚钱效应阶段性减 弱。 ➢ 从202 ...

增量资金入市不会是2026年市场上一个新台阶的主要因素。2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平 衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度 并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 国泰海通：一年之计在于春 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六。在一个回头来看巨大 的结构性牛市当中，实际上市场既享受了预期差带来的"估值的钱"，也挣到了"业绩的钱"，预期差来自 于对中国自主科技能力的重估以及中美关系，而结构性的超预期业绩来自复杂贸易环境下外需的韧性以 及AI推理需求爆发，这些因素站在2025年初来看并不是那么理所应当会发生。增量流动性只是预期差 和业绩兑现过程中的结果，或者是用于后验的解释牛市形成的理由，投资者过于高估了增量资金对市场 的影响。 在市场持续反弹之际，中国股市有望跨越与站稳重要关口。海外流动性的宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望 推动人民币的稳定与升值。以A500ETF为代表的增量资金持续涌入，叠加险资"开门红"，配置需求进一 步夯实流动性基础。政策进一步发力提振增长的必要性抬升，"逆周期与跨周 ...

宏观、贵金属与黑色金属专场 | 兴业期货2026年度策略展望 9:00-11:40 01 核心看点： 02 宏观金融专场 | 洞见新"期"，共塑未来——广发期货2026年年度路演 9:30-11:00 核心看点： 广发期货三箭齐发，解码2026投资主线：陈尚宇解 析股指如何借力"周期的力量"顺势布局；熊睿健探 讨国债如何在利率新常态下"以期应变"；叶倩宁研 判贵金属价格中枢上移的驱动逻辑。宏观金融三大 资产策略联袂登场，助您把握趋势与节奏！ 嘉宾： 宏观变局下贵金属如何迎接"秩序重构"下的周期与 结构共振？钢材、建材、炉料三大产业链供需格局 将如何演变？从产能出清到政策破局，从成本推移 到价格区间运行，深度把脉黑色系周期底部反转机 遇。一站式前瞻洞察，助您布局新一年投资主线！ 嘉宾： 魏莹 | 兴业期货投资咨询部总经理助理 刘启跃 | 兴业期货投资咨询部高级分析师 扫码预约 陈尚宇 | 广发期货研究所宏观金融组组长 熊睿健 | 广发期货国债资深研究员 叶倩宁 | 广发期货贵金属资深研究员 扫码预约 03 【热点聚焦】前海开源首经丨杨德龙：2026年"十大预言" 15:00-16:00 核心看点： 美联储降息推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market as it approaches a year-end trading window, with favorable policy support for the consumer sector and low valuation levels in various sub-sectors [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Insights - Hong Kong stocks are experiencing a year-end trading window, with quality assets entering a high cost-performance zone due to macroeconomic improvements and profit expectations [5]. - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% is expected to improve overseas liquidity expectations, which may positively impact global markets [3]. - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to remain volatile, particularly high-valuation assets, as it navigates between revaluation and sentiment recovery [7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is positioned for recovery, with multiple sub-sectors currently at historically low valuation levels, benefiting from policy support aimed at enhancing corporate profitability [11]. - Strong cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, aluminum, chemicals, and machinery are expected to be key trading catalysts in the first quarter of 2026 [6]. - Industrial metals are projected to maintain a long-term positive trend despite short-term price pressures due to uncertainties in interest rates and the dollar [12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain under pressure, but investment may stabilize at low levels, with gradual improvements in consumption and resilient exports [10]. - The market is likely to transition from a valuation-driven rally to one supported by corporate earnings, with a focus on modernization and capacity expansion as key trends [10]. - The trust in the U.S. dollar is declining, which may influence global economic dynamics and investment strategies [15].

Core Viewpoint - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities and actively seizing the market pullback as a layout window [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds, equity mixed funds, and QDII funds [2]. - The early fundraising trend is characterized by significantly shortened timelines, with some funds reducing their fundraising periods by over a month [2]. - Newly launched ETFs have established high stock positions quickly, indicating strong bullish signals, with some ETFs reaching stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Valuation - The recent market adjustment has provided a favorable entry point for new funds, as many heavy-weight stocks have seen significant weekly declines while maintaining stable fundamentals [4]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 12 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index's is about 23 times, both at historical low levels, reflecting institutional recognition of undervalued Hong Kong stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The Hang Seng Index has dropped 5.85% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen 18.01% since October 3, indicating a clear market correction [6]. - Factors contributing to the market adjustment include fluctuating liquidity expectations, concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S., increased IPO activity, and reduced southbound capital inflows [7][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 with improved liquidity conditions [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of leading copper and aluminum mining companies [9]. - The innovative drug and biotechnology sectors are seen as having significant investment opportunities due to industry acceleration and favorable policy adjustments [10].