一、证券市场回顾 南财金融终端数据显示，昨日(2月4日，下同)上证综指日内上涨0.85%，收于4102.2点，最高4104.62点；深证成指日内上涨0.21%，收于14156.27点，最高 14173.77点；创业板指日内下跌0.4%，收于3311.51点，最高3318.9点。二、ETF市场表现1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 昨日股票型ETF收益率中位数为0.62%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中万家中证800自由现金流ETF收益率最高，为2.15%；行业指数ETF中国泰中证煤 炭ETF收益率最高，为9.07%；策略指数ETF中银河上证国有企业红利ETF收益率最高，为4.39%；风格指数ETF中浙商汇金中证浙江凤凰行动50ETF收益率 最高，为2.15%；主题指数ETF中银华中证内地地产主题ETF收益率最高，为3.84%。 2、股票型ETF涨跌幅排行 昨日股票型ETF跌幅最大的3只ETF及其收益率分别为：华富中证人工智能产业ETF(-4.15%)、南方创业板人工智能ETF(-3.95%)、华宝创业板人工智能 ETF(-3.92%)。跌幅前10详情见下表： | 类别 | 代码 | | | --- | --- ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 电子行业周报 优于大市 AI 应用爆点频出，算力链重回主线 AI 应用爆点频出，海外算力链重回主线。过去一周上证下跌 0.44%，电子下 跌 2.51%，子行业中半导体下跌 0.90%，电子化学品下跌 5.87%。同期恒生科 技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 1.38%、上涨 0.51%、上涨 0.55%。过去 一周，由 Clawdbot 所引致的对于"AI 智能体正加速场景落地"的预期成为 市场热点，同时，国内互联网大厂陆续启动"红包大战"争抢大模型流量入 口。在此背景下，算力资源不单单成为军备竞赛的着力点，更是在各类 AI 应用试水过程中逐步成为"卖方型市场"，成为 AI 应用的核心预算约束， 算力链有望在强业绩支撑下重回科技投资主线，继续推荐：澜起科技、胜宏 科技、工业富联、蓝特光学、德明利、华勤技术、翱捷科技、芯原股份、寒 武纪、中芯国际、晶丰明源等。 海外原厂业绩保持强劲，建议关注存储产业链相关公司。存储周期持续上行， 原厂业绩保持强劲：AI 驱动企业级 SSD 量价齐升，闪迪 2QFY26 营收环比增 长 3 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **AI computing power industry**, specifically focusing on **Industrial Fulian** and **Apple** as key players in the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Agent Demand and Market Dynamics** - The introduction of local running modes for agents, such as MultiBot, has sparked significant interest in the market, potentially accelerating the release of more powerful agent functionalities by major companies, which will increase demand for computing resources and promote growth in the edge computing and storage markets [1][3] 2. **Local Storage and Edge Computing** - MultiBot architecture emphasizes local data storage, providing zero-latency access and data control advantages, which will lead to increased demand for local storage solutions. The future may see widespread adoption of personal edge servers, significantly boosting independent incremental demand [1][4] 3. **Domestic Computing Power Development** - Domestic computing power currently lags behind international capabilities by approximately six months. However, it is expected to gradually replace foreign computing power in the local market over the long term. Performance is anticipated to be released in 2026 as production capacity issues are resolved [1][5][6] 4. **Industrial Fulian's Performance Forecast** - Industrial Fulian's 2025 performance forecast exceeds expectations, benefiting from the ramp-up of GB200 and 300 products and growth in VeriSilicon's business. The company is positioned to benefit from the AI trend as a key component of the overseas computing power chain [1][8] 5. **Apple's Financial Performance** - Apple's latest financial results surpassed expectations, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and record revenue in Greater China. The anticipated product innovations in 2026, including new AirPods and foldable screens, are expected to contribute to growth in non-AI server business [2][9][12] 6. **AI Data Center Business Highlights** - Industrial Fulian's AI data center business, including high-speed switches and AI server assembly, saw significant revenue growth, with 800G and above high-speed switch revenue increasing over 4.5 times year-on-year. The complexity of assembly is increasing, leading to higher value per cabinet and profit margins [2][10] 7. **Global Competitive Position** - Industrial Fulian holds a unique position as the only NV chain alloy ODM assembly supplier, with a strong and stable role in the overseas computing power chain, facing no immediate threats from technological iterations [2][11] 8. **Optical Module Industry Insights** - Leading companies in the optical module sector have reported impressive 2025 performance forecasts, indicating strong downstream demand and growth in high-speed optical module shipments. Investors are advised to focus on the long-term value of leading companies in this sector [2][16] 9. **Future Trends in Optical Communication** - The optical communication industry is expected to see high downstream demand and investment in AI, with significant capital expenditures projected from major companies like Meta and Microsoft. The increasing share of silicon photonics technology is anticipated to create additional market opportunities for leading Chinese firms [2][17] 10. **Market Pricing Trends** - The fiber optic market continues to experience price increases due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with major companies managing to mitigate profit impacts despite price pressures from operators [2][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The anticipated growth in edge computing and local storage solutions is expected to create a dual market for cloud and local storage, rather than a zero-sum scenario [1][4] - The performance of domestic computing power is expected to improve significantly by 2027, with increased demand for packaging and testing services as production returns to China [2][7]

Group 1 - The recent decline of Intel's stock by 17% due to a significant drop in CPU shipments for Q1 did not raise concerns about the overall investment climate in infrastructure, as Nvidia's stock rose by 1.53% and AMD opened high at 5% before closing up 2.35% [1] - Jensen Huang's high-profile visit to China, coinciding with the upcoming launch of the H200, is expected to generate positive news, especially as he will attend the annual meeting in Beijing and may discuss business matters [1] - The upcoming earnings disclosure period for domestic companies in the computing power chain, including optical modules, PCBs, and industrial interconnects, is critical, as any unexpected results could lead to volatility in the sector [1] Group 2 - Prices of non-ferrous metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum continue to rise, influenced by recent developments in tariff issues between the US and Canada, which have created a ripple effect in other commodities [2] - Lithium carbonate is highlighted as a key commodity, with inventory levels dropping from 100,000 tons to 18,000 tons, while monthly demand is between 115,000 to 120,000 tons, indicating a tight balance in the market [2] - The short-term price of lithium futures is expected to remain strong due to this supply-demand imbalance, although future capacity releases may increase supply [2]

来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 本周市场明显分化、呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。展望后市，由于以上证为代表的权 重指数勉强站上5 周均线，但还未收复前期上升趋势线；而在算力链"强势吸金"的背后，市场出现明显 分化格局。我们预计，在"权重不够强、行业大分化"的局面下，市场或继续维持区间震荡格局。配置方 面，基于"市场分化震荡继续，多看少动守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、 垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标，伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置，建议 关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块、走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，以及近期利好频出 的机械设备。个股方面，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方低位滞 涨个股。 本周（2025-12-08 至2025-12-12）行情概况（1）主要指数：市场呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲 高回落。（2）板块观察：算力携硬科技领涨，大周期和消费走弱。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比上 升，IC 股指期货合约升水。（4）资金流向：两融余额小幅上升，有色金属ETF 净流入最多。（5）量 化"黑 ...

Group 1: Optical Communication and Commercial Aerospace Sectors - The optical communication sector has seen a resurgence, with leading stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Changguang Huaxin reaching historical highs [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant uptrend, driven by a combination of policy, performance, and technological advancements, with stocks like Aerospace Power and Aerospace Engineering hitting their daily limits [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.55%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.02% as of the morning close [1] Group 2: Recent Developments in Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector has recently benefited from multiple catalysts, including the successful launch of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket by Blue Arrow Aerospace, marking a significant milestone in China's space capabilities [6] - The Long March 8 rocket successfully launched a group of 14 low-orbit satellites, further showcasing advancements in China's satellite technology [6] - Shandong and Hainan provinces are making strides in commercial aerospace, with Shandong developing a semi-fixed offshore test platform and Hainan's launch site achieving rapid development and multiple successful launches [6] Group 3: Securities Sector Performance - The securities sector has also seen gains, with stocks like Industrial Securities and Northeast Securities experiencing significant increases [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on enhancing regulatory frameworks and supporting high-quality development in the capital market, which may benefit the securities industry [11] - The outlook for the securities sector is positive, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation driven by policy support and internal growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the optical communication and commercial aerospace sectors in the market, with significant stock price increases and historical highs being reached by several leading companies in these industries [2]. Group 1: Optical Communication Sector - The optical communication sector has seen a resurgence, with leading stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Changguang Huaxin, and others reaching historical highs [2]. - Notable stock price increases include Tianfu Communication rising by 21.21% and Longguang Huaxin increasing by 10.47% [5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a surge, attributed to a combination of policy, performance, and technological advancements [2]. - Stocks with "Aerospace" in their names, such as Aerospace Power and Aerospace Engineering, saw significant gains, with some reaching their daily limit [4]. - Recent developments include the successful launch of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket and advancements in key technologies for liquid oxygen-methane rockets, which are expected to enhance China's aerospace capabilities [6]. Group 3: Market Performance - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.55%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.02% [3]. - The commercial aerospace sector has been particularly active, with stocks like Yinbang Co. and Hongxiang Co. hitting their daily limit [4]. Group 4: Securities Sector - The securities sector also saw gains, with companies like Industrial Securities and Northeast Securities experiencing significant stock price increases [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent announcements regarding regulatory adjustments are expected to positively impact the securities industry, enhancing capital efficiency and growth potential [10][11].

Group 1: Optical Communication and Commercial Aerospace Sectors - The optical communication sector, represented by companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication, saw significant stock price increases, with many stocks reaching historical highs [1] - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a surge, attributed to a combination of policy, performance, and technological turning points, with stocks like Aerospace Power and Aerospace Engineering hitting their daily limit [1][2] - The commercial aerospace sector is benefiting from recent advancements, including the successful launch of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket and the Long March 8 rocket, which enhances China's capabilities in satellite internet and reusable rocket technology [4][5] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.55%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.02% during the morning session [1] - The commercial aerospace sector index rose by 2.93%, indicating strong investor interest and market confidence in this area [3] Group 3: Securities Industry Developments - The securities sector saw notable gains, with companies like Industrial Securities and Northeast Securities experiencing significant stock price increases [6][8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for differentiated regulation and support for high-quality institutions, which is expected to enhance the operational efficiency and profitability of the securities industry [9] - The outlook for the securities industry is positive, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation driven by policy support and internal growth [9]

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to exhibit a "two-eight" differentiation, with the banking sector leading the gains while technology stocks experience volatility, particularly influenced by AI trends [1][11]. Banking Sector - The banking sector remains a key stabilizing force for the market, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 1.89% [6]. - Major banks such as China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reached historical highs, with China Bank increasing by 5.17% and its market capitalization surpassing 2 trillion yuan, while ICBC rose by 1.58% with a market cap nearing 3 trillion yuan [6][10]. - The report from Kaiyuan Securities emphasizes the importance of large state-owned banks for stable returns and suggests a focus on regional banks with unique characteristics for flexible allocation [10]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 1.59% [4]. - Notable stocks such as I Love My Home and World Union experienced significant price surges, with some reaching their daily limit [4]. - Data indicates a 4.7% year-on-year increase in the transaction area of second-hand homes from January to October, with second-hand homes accounting for 44.8% of total transactions [4]. Technology Sector - The technology sector initially surged following Nvidia's strong quarterly performance but later faced a downturn, with the Shenwan Electronics Index dropping by 0.34% by midday [12][15]. - The performance of the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors varied, with the computer index down by 0.45% and the communication index's gains narrowing to 0.2% [12]. - Despite concerns over valuation bubbles and sustainability of AI investments, recent earnings reports from leading tech companies have generally met expectations, indicating continued growth potential in the sector [16].