Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - The current government shutdown appears to be more prolonged due to a lack of communication between the parties involved, differing from historical instances where resolutions were typically reached quickly [2][3] - The president's potential aim to reduce the size of government could have a more significant impact on GDP than usual, as past shutdowns often resulted in backpay that mitigated economic effects [3][5] - The upcoming military payday on October 15th is a critical date, as both parties may want to avoid being blamed for not paying troops, which could prompt negotiations [4] Group 2: Economic and Credit Rating Concerns - The risk of a recession stemming from the shutdown is considered minor, as shutdowns are generally short-lived and spending delays are usually compensated later [5][6] - Credit rating agencies have already downgraded U.S. debt, citing shutdowns and political dysfunction, which raises concerns about U.S. fiscal governance [6][7] - Persistent dysfunction in Washington may lead rating agencies to question whether the U.S. can effectively utilize its resources to maintain credit ratings [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Sustainability - The U.S. is currently on an unsustainable fiscal path, with uncertainty about what will trigger a necessary change, but a significant adjustment is anticipated when it occurs [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The seventh Baltic Sea Investment Forum opened in Leningrad Oblast, Russia, highlighting the region's investment potential and fostering dialogue between businesses and governments [1] Group 1: Investment Agreements - Four investment agreements are planned to be signed at the forum, with a total value exceeding 8.8 billion rubles [1] - Some agreements will focus on expanding existing enterprises in the region, while others will involve the establishment of new businesses [1] Group 2: Key Topics - The main topics of discussion at this year's forum include global trade wars and the risks of economic recession [1] - The forum will also facilitate public dialogue between businesses and government entities [1]

独立贵金属分析师、《泡沫报告》创始人科伦坡（Jesse Colombo）指出，黄金上涨不仅反映对美联储 降息的预期，更回应美国货币政策的不确定性——总统特朗普及其政府持续施压要求降息。 科伦坡强调，显著疲软的美国劳动力市场和日益增长的经济衰退风险，意味着新一轮宽松周期可能推动 利率再降100基点。但他同时警告，风险在于美联储可能过度反应。 他表示："美联储独立性的丧失意味着宽松力度可能远超必要水平。所有这些不确定性将继续支撑金价 走高。" abrdn ETF策略总监明特（Robert Minter）认为，美联储当前温和降息的路径将继续支撑金价技术性突破 至3700美元。但他补充道，黄金风险明确偏向上行，因美联储有可能采取比预期更激进的行动。 他指出，基于两年期美国国债收益率表现，美联储有理由在年底前降息100基点。问题在于：这些行动 将以何种形式展开？ 明特表示，最新劳动力市场数据显示就业增长急剧收缩，美联储有可能以50基点降息震撼市场。 黄金市场上周以又一历史新高收官，令人失望的经济数据为美联储重启宽松周期亮起绿灯。 投资者当前亟需破解的谜题是：在金价稳守3600美元/盎司上方的背景下，黄金市场究竟已经消化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now predicting three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, November, and December 2024, along with additional cuts in 2026, which is more aggressive than market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Aggressive Shift - Inflation is cooling faster than expected, with key indicators like CPI and PCE showing a quicker decline, particularly in stubborn areas like housing inflation, providing data support for earlier and faster rate cuts [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with non-farm employment, job openings, and unemployment rate data indicating a return to a balanced state, alleviating concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [3]. - There are increasing risks of economic recession, as leading economic indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the U.S. economy, prompting the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy to avoid a hard landing [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley's new prediction of three rate cuts in 2024 contrasts with the previous market expectation of only two cuts [5]. - For 2025, while the market anticipated 2-3 cuts, Morgan Stanley forecasts four cuts, indicating a faster pace [5]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast includes three rate cuts in 2026, a prediction rarely made by other institutions, highlighting a more aggressive approach compared to the market's cautious stance [5]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - If Morgan Stanley's predictions materialize, global asset prices could undergo significant revaluation, with gold being the biggest beneficiary, potentially reaching historical highs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar [6][7]. - U.S. stocks may experience a liquidity-driven rally, although concerns about economic recession could limit gains, particularly affecting bank stocks due to narrowing interest margins [8][9]. - The dollar's dominance may face challenges, with a faster rate cut path leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials, potentially resulting in a long-term decline in the dollar index and a rebound for non-U.S. currencies [10]. - Cryptocurrencies may see a resurgence in demand as global liquidity expectations improve, benefiting from both their status as risk assets and as "digital gold" [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to accumulate "rate cut beneficiary" assets, such as gold, which should constitute 5%-10% of their portfolio [13]. - Investors should focus on high-quality tech and growth stocks with strong cash flows for long-term holding [14]. - Short-term traders should monitor economic data closely, as stronger-than-expected data could challenge Morgan Stanley's aggressive predictions, necessitating risk management strategies [15]. - All investors should maintain flexibility and avoid heavy bets based on a single prediction, ensuring a balanced and adaptable asset allocation [16].

Key Points After a brief pop on Friday, stock prices fell in response to the weak employment report. The report makes a rate cut from the Fed more likely later this month. A recession is also becoming an increased risk. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Several months ago, stocks briefly crashed over concerns about a trade war and a slowing economy. Now, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is trading at an all-time high even as recent economic data makes it clear the labor mark ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021, raising concerns about a potential worsening labor market [1][2][3] - In August, non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [2][3] - Job growth has been concentrated in healthcare, leisure, and hospitality, while sectors such as information, finance, manufacturing, federal government, and business services saw substantial job losses [2][3] Group 2 - The average job growth over the past three months is only 29,000, marking the weakest employment growth phase since the pandemic began, with job additions consistently below 100,000 for four consecutive months [3] - The disappointing employment report has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut anticipated [4] - The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 3.5%, and the ten-year note yield dropped to 4.1%, both reaching five-month lows, indicating a market reaction to the employment data [3]

Group 1 - French business leaders warn that current political instability may lead to severe economic consequences [1] - The Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, is seeking a confidence vote from the National Assembly on September 8 regarding the government's budget plan for 2026 [1][3] - The opposition parties have announced plans to reject the government's fiscal deficit strategy, indicating a challenging political environment [3] Group 2 - Patrick Martin, head of the French Business Movement, highlighted a real risk of recession, citing dwindling orders and increased tariff pressures as significant threats to economic growth [4] - The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3.5%, nearing the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis [4] - Consumer spending is currently the only support for economic growth in France, with increasing uncertainty negatively impacting consumer confidence [4] Group 3 - The ongoing political turmoil has disrupted financial markets, with the spread between French and German 10-year government bonds approaching the highest level since 2012 [6] - France's fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, while public debt is expected to reach 114% of GDP by the end of Q1 2025 [6]

Group 1 - French business leaders warn that current political instability may lead to severe economic consequences, highlighting a lack of consensus on public finance reform [1][2] - The French government is facing a trust vote on September 8, with opposition parties planning to reject the government's deficit plan, indicating a challenging political landscape [2][3] - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, with warnings from business leaders about dwindling orders and increasing tariff pressures, which could threaten economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3.5%, nearing the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis, reflecting market unease [2][3] - The French economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, and increased uncertainty is seen as detrimental to consumer confidence, raising the risk of significant economic shocks [2][3] - France's fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, with public debt reaching 114% of GDP by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a concerning fiscal outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, reinforced by Powell's statements, is likely to drive gold prices higher in the future [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $3,336.80 per ounce at the beginning of the week, experienced a low of $3,311.56 on Wednesday, and closed at $3,371.62, marking a weekly increase of $34.82 or 1.04% [3][5]. - The weekly trading range for gold was $66.8, indicating volatility in the market [3]. Influencing Factors - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium have strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, despite acknowledging risks in the job market and persistent inflation pressures [5][6]. - The potential for increased tariffs on furniture products by Trump and ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are also seen as supportive factors for gold prices [1][5]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a bullish trend over the next year, with potential to reach historical highs around $4,200 per ounce, despite current fluctuations within the $3,200 to $3,440 range [6][8]. - The likelihood of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and a more dovish monetary policy in the coming year are anticipated to further support gold prices [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has recently tested the 100-day moving average support and is expected to continue its upward trajectory following this adjustment [10]. - Key support levels to watch include $3,270 and $3,220, while resistance levels are identified at $3,386 and $3,400 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].