Group 1 - The US market is experiencing low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to a clear trend of "dollar up, everything down" with slight declines in US Treasury bonds, gold, and US stock futures [2] - The market's current state is characterized by suppressed volatility, with both bullish and bearish forces resting, creating a situation where everyone is waiting for others to act first [2] - The market is not in a "safe period" but rather a "quiet period under pressure," indicating that any sudden directional movement could catch investors off guard [2] Group 2 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Full Firepower, Riding the Waves" suggests that the upcoming interest rate cut on December 10 will have significantly different implications for short-term and long-term financial markets [3] - There is a notable change regarding a critical stock in China, coinciding with an unusual long report released by Goldman Sachs [3] - Multiple reports from Wall Street are analyzing the prospects of A-shares, US stocks, and gold, questioning whether the US bull market will continue and if the narrative for A-shares has concluded [3]

Core Points - LME copper prices fell for the second consecutive day, influenced by a slight strengthening of the US dollar, diminished hopes for further Fed rate cuts, and various macroeconomic concerns [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price decreased by $73.5, or 0.68%, closing at $10,778.5 per ton [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - Basic metal fundamentals remain unchanged, with the market awaiting delayed US economic data and more clues regarding monetary policy [4] - The strengthening US dollar makes metals priced in dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies, impacting market sentiment [4] - Current demand outlook is limited, with copper prices constrained within a narrow range and other signals appearing to deteriorate [4] Group 2: Specific Metal Performance - LME spot copper is trading at a $29 per ton discount to the three-month copper, indicating weak short-term demand [4] - LME zinc shows a $100 per ton premium for spot zinc over three-month zinc, highlighting tight supply with LME zinc inventories below 40,000 tons [5] - LME three-month aluminum fell by $45, or 1.57%, closing at $2,813.5 per ton, reaching its lowest since October 23 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have shifted, benefiting the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 400 basis points from a high of 1.1920 reached a few weeks ago [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - There seems to be no significant change in expectations regarding interest rate cuts compared to a few weeks ago, but Jerome Powell's differing outlook on future prospects has significantly impacted the euro/dollar exchange rate in recent days [2] - Analysts are closely monitoring the trends in US manufacturing, which is a key focus of today's agenda [2] Group 2: European Central Bank and Euro Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not released any major news, with President Christine Lagarde reiterating that policy decisions are based on each meeting's circumstances and are entirely dependent on macroeconomic data [2] - There are concerns that a strong euro could jeopardize the already weak European economy, putting the ECB in a difficult position [2] - Some large investment institutions that previously had a bullish outlook on the euro, believing the exchange rate should approach 1.25, have now adopted a more conservative stance [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Strategies - ICMarkets has reiterated skepticism about the euro's ability to continue rising strongly, suggesting that a correction is more likely, which has already begun [2] - The US dollar still has room for appreciation, leading to a cautious stance and consideration of buying euros at lower prices [2]

Core Insights - The dollar has strengthened against a basket of currencies in anticipation of U.S. inflation data for September, which is expected to show an acceleration [1] Group 1 - The rise of the dollar indicates market expectations regarding inflation trends [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index has broken through resistance levels and is now above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, marking a significant shift in sentiment after a period of bearish outlooks on the dollar [1] - The focus in the market has shifted from questioning the dollar's decline to assessing how much short position liquidation is necessary, impacting currencies like the euro and yen [3] - The U.S. labor market is showing structural changes, with the number of jobs needed to maintain stable unemployment dropping significantly, indicating that slower job growth does not necessarily equate to economic weakness [4] Group 2 - The rise of the dollar is seen as self-reinforcing, with momentum traders driving up the index despite underlying fundamentals, while other currencies struggle to act as safe havens [5] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is critical, as a core reading of 0.3% could confirm a rate cut in October, but the outlook for December remains uncertain [5] - In Europe, the euro remains vulnerable despite temporary relief from political announcements, with traders wary of fiscal credibility and potential market reactions [6] Group 3 - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to political instability rather than monetary policy, with the potential for a coalition government to stabilize the currency [6] - The current rise in the dollar index reflects market mechanics rather than macroeconomic beliefs, suggesting that unless there are significant changes in CPI or Federal Reserve communications, the dollar may enter a consolidation phase [7]

Group 1 - The bullish sentiment for the US dollar has reached a three-week high, indicating traders' bets that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not adopt an overly dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal indicator has been rising since the beginning of the month, reflecting increased confidence in the dollar [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased, with current projections indicating a total of 47 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 63 basis points just over a week ago [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in his upcoming speech, which could further support the dollar's strength, particularly against the euro [4] - If Powell's speech implies any potential for a rate cut in September, it may lead to a temporary sell-off of the dollar, although this is expected to be short-lived [4] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has seen a significant decline, with the previous month marking a near four-year low, leading to an oversupply of long positions in euros that remains unresolved [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman is considering succeeding Chairman Powell after his term ends next year and supports at least three interest rate cuts this year in response to President Trump's call to lower borrowing costs [1] - Interest rate futures indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut anticipated in September [1] - A key event this week is the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 21 to 23, where Chairman Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for insights on the economic and monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Bond yields have decreased, while the dollar has seen a slight increase [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar is expected to achieve its first monthly increase since 2025 in July, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and strong economic performance in the US [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he is not in a hurry to lower interest rates and did not provide a timeline for potential rate cuts [1] - Investor confidence in the resilience of the US economy has increased following the resolution of uncertainties related to President Trump's chaotic tariff policies and a series of trade agreements [1] - The euro is one of the biggest losers this month, with expectations of a nearly 3% decline as investors withdraw bets based on the assumption that "European markets may offer more opportunities" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is experiencing fluctuations near a two-month high, supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and Japan's central bank raising its inflation forecast while keeping rates unchanged [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish position has strengthened the dollar, with the US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate coming in at 3%, which was better than expected, further boosting the dollar's performance [4] - The market is now focused on the upcoming tariff deadline on August 1, where countries failing to reach a trade agreement with the US will face high tariffs, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1] Group 2 - Other major currencies are under pressure due to the strength of the dollar, with the euro recently rising by 0.1% to 1.1412 USD but having fallen by 3.2% this month [5] - The British pound is hovering near a two-and-a-half-month low, currently at 1.3255 USD, with a monthly decline of approximately 3.5% [5] - The Australian dollar has increased by 0.3% to 0.6454 USD, but has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 2% this month [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar may rise following the release of strong US GDP data and a cautious stance on interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Economic Data - The US second-quarter economic growth data is set to be released at 20:30 Beijing time [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy decision will be announced the following day at 02:00, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [1] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent increase in the dollar appears to be related to position adjustments ahead of key events rather than a fundamental reassessment of its value [1] - The potential rise in the dollar is expected to be limited [1]