Monex USA华盛顿交易主管Juan Perez表示，在市场不确定性环绕的背景下，作为关键金融权威机构， 美联储保持谨慎、暂不调整利率是合乎情理的。委员之间仍然缺乏共识，因此这一决定在一定程度上有 助于缓解自1月20日以来美元承受的压力。我们认为，美联储的政策路径仍将相当难以预测。 ...

金银涨势根本刹不住！ 1月26日，黄金与白银价格同步飙升并齐创历史新高，其中现货黄金强势突破5000美元/盎司关键关 口，上演了一场贵金属市场的狂欢盛宴。 受访人士指出，受美元信用弱化、央行购金刚性需求及地缘长期溢价等多方面因素影响，黄金中长 期上行逻辑依然完整。若宏观叙事不变，黄金上方空间充满想象。白银则受货币属性与逼仓驱动，波动 率偏高，上行趋势也仍未结束。 金银强势大涨 现货市场方面，截至发稿，伦敦金现日内大涨2.05%，报5090.288美元/盎司，盘中最高触及5111.17 美元/盎司，刷新历史峰值；伦敦银现攻势更猛，日内飙升6.06%，报109.6美元/盎司，最高突破110美 元/盎司大关，涨幅大幅跑赢黄金。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5090.288 | | | +102.118 +2.05% | | IDC USD 17:07:47 | | | 6 | | 三一 | 5090.558 | | | | 买 | 5090.288 | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | 0 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | 498 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, reaching a two-week high, driven by multiple favorable factors and market focus on its impact on key psychological levels [1] - The rebound of the dollar is primarily attributed to the resonance of economic data and risk aversion, with recent inflation data meeting expectations and core inflation remaining stable, reducing market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the US and Iran, have heightened the dollar's safe-haven appeal, with rising oil prices driving risk-averse capital back to the dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in market views on the medium to long-term trajectory of the dollar, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy path and debates over central bank independence [2] - The internal "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve has intensified, leading to significant disagreements on rate cuts, which contributes to ongoing policy uncertainty affecting the dollar's performance [2] - Institutions generally expect the dollar to maintain a "short-term strong, medium to long-term weak" pattern, with key signals including the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the degree of global central bank policy divergence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in gold and silver markets, highlighting the fluctuations in prices and the broader economic context influencing these trends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.44% to $4594.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [1]. - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI also increasing by 2.6%, both figures remaining consistent with previous values [1]. - The prolonged "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government has diminished the predictive value of this data for the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The trend of increasing official gold reserves, high public debt leading to sovereign currency crises, and broad industrial applications continue to provide medium to long-term support for precious metals [3]. - Short-term factors include questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the imminent announcement of its next chairperson, alongside rising global geopolitical risks [3]. - Overall, in a highly uncertain economic and financial environment, gold is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [3].

黄金（XAU/USD）当前在历史高位区域整理，交易员观望等待最新美国消费者通胀数据指引方向。 金价近期接近4600美元/盎司历史高位波动，暂未出现明确突破或回调信号。作为影响美联储政策路径的核心数据，此次通胀数据将直接左右美元短期走 势，为无收益属性的黄金提供方向指引。全球股市整体积极情绪对避险属性的黄金形成压制，加剧市场观望氛围。 市场核心影响因素中，美联储政策路径不确定性主导黄金与美元走势。 当前市场对美联储后续货币政策调整预期发酵，直接影响美元指数波动并传导至黄金市场。此前美国非农就业报告数据支撑美联储短期内政策平稳观点，但 交易员普遍预期美联储年内仍将实施两次降息。这一预期导致美元指数缺乏实质性买盘支撑，间接为黄金价格提供底部支撑。 当前黄金市场整体偏向看涨，但需警惕超买风险。黄金价格此前依托市场预期创下历史新高，触及高位后多头动能收敛，市场等待关键数据明确方向。 即将发布的美国12月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据为核心风向标。市场普遍预期，美国12月整体CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比维持2.7%；剔除食品和能源价格的 核心CPI同比涨幅或微升至2.7%。 若通胀数据与市场预期显著偏差，将直接改变市场对美 ...

市场预计同比通胀率约为2.8%，且政府停摆结束后数据收集已恢复正常，标普500 ETF（SPY）交易员 正关注该数据如何影响美联储在2025年三次降息后的近期政策路径。 市场预计同比通胀率约为2.8%，且政府停摆结束后数据收集已恢复正常，标普500 ETF（SPY）交易员 正关注该数据如何影响美联储在2025年三次降息后的近期政策路径。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bond investors appear to have further room to expand their bets on the Federal Reserve's policy path for 2026 and the U.S. Treasury market trends, as last week's non-farm report indicated employment growth fell short of expectations, maintaining market expectations for further rate cuts by the Fed [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The disappointing employment growth has confirmed market expectations that short-term Treasuries, which are most sensitive to monetary policy, will outperform long-term Treasuries this year, thereby widening the yield gap between the two [1] - This strategy, known as "steepening trade," was one of the hottest bond trades for most of last year and continues to be effective at the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Capital Group's fixed income portfolio manager, Pramod Athruri, stated that there are many scenarios over the next 12 to 24 months that are favorable for steepening trade on the yield curve [1] - An analysis by JPMorgan of the 25 largest actively managed core bond funds shows that these funds still have a relatively high exposure to this trade from a historical perspective [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy actions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts in 2025 [1][4]. - The market anticipates an increase of 55,000 jobs in December, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [1]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to rise to 0.3% from the previous 0.1%, indicating a potential structural tightening in the labor market as companies increase wages to retain core employees [1]. Group 2 - There is a risk of data noise, particularly concerning revisions to the previous two months' data, which could alter the overall employment trend perception [3]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials post-data release will significantly influence market interpretations of policy direction, especially regarding inflation concerns [4]. - HSBC forecasts that geopolitical risks and rising debt could push gold prices to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, while adjusting the average price forecast for 2026 from $4,600 to $4,587 per ounce due to anticipated price corrections later this year [4]. Group 3 - A significantly stronger-than-expected report could delay expectations for the first interest rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices, particularly around the $4,400 support level [4]. - If the data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, it may not disrupt the rate cut outlook or trigger recession fears, allowing gold to consolidate within its current high range [4]. - A significantly weaker-than-expected report could elevate rate cut expectations and increase safe-haven demand, potentially driving gold prices higher [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows no significant tension ahead of the non-farm payroll report, with investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path stabilizing [1] Group 1: Employment Data Expectations - Goldman Sachs estimates that the new non-farm payroll number will be around 70,000, aligning with mainstream consensus [3] - As long as the results do not deviate significantly from this range, the impact is likely to confirm existing macroeconomic judgments rather than introduce new uncertainties [3] - A job addition in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 is seen as an ideal outcome, indicating economic expansion while avoiding concerns of overheating [3] Group 2: Market Reactions to Employment Data - If the data falls below 50,000, it may raise concerns about weakening growth momentum, leading to increased market volatility [4] - Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, such as surpassing 125,000, the market may reconsider the pace of policy adjustments, potentially delaying anticipated easing [4] - Current market structure suggests that Goldman Sachs does not expect significant volatility from this non-farm data, as investor positioning indicates limited bets on large single-day movements [4]

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is experiencing slight declines against the US dollar (USD) due to mixed fundamental factors, with a cautious market sentiment prevailing [1]. Group 1: Economic Influences - Recent macroeconomic data from China has negatively impacted the NZD, as China is a key trading partner for New Zealand, raising concerns about risk appetite for currencies like the NZD [1]. - The overall weakness in global stock markets has intensified risk aversion, leading to a shift of funds from risk assets to safe-haven assets, further pressuring the NZD/USD pair [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy stance is providing crucial support for the NZD, with Governor Adrian Orr indicating that the official cash rate will remain at 2.25% for an extended period if economic conditions align with expectations [2]. - This hawkish signal from the RBNZ contrasts with market expectations for the Federal Reserve, which anticipates potential rate cuts in 2026, giving the NZD a relative advantage [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent upward momentum of the USD is also constrained by expectations of a dovish successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, causing USD bulls to hesitate in making aggressive bets [4]. - Traders are closely monitoring two key signals: comments from core members of the Federal Open Market Committee and upcoming US consumer inflation data, which will shape market perceptions of future Federal Reserve policy [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators and capital flows suggest that the NZD is showing signs of bottom-fishing interest in the 0.5755 to 0.5760 range, limiting the extent of its recent pullback from a multi-month high of 0.5830 [6]. - The short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair will heavily depend on US inflation data and central bank policy signals, with ongoing competition between supportive policy divergence and risk sentiment suppression expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern [7].