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25年前,巴菲特在大学的一场演讲,至今仍是投资者的精神底稿
雪球· 2025-10-07 13:00
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the timeless relevance of Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, particularly the importance of focusing on a company's intrinsic value rather than short-term stock price fluctuations [3][4]. Group 1: Life Philosophy - Character is the core determinant of long-term success, with qualities like integrity and responsibility being essential for cultivating beneficial habits [4]. - Investment and business selection fundamentally represent a "vote for people," highlighting the importance of character in mitigating risks and generating compound returns [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The principle of "buying a company" underscores that stocks represent ownership in a business, necessitating a focus on long-term value rather than short-term price movements [5][6]. - Long-termism is crucial, as time benefits good businesses, allowing overvaluations to correct while poor businesses yield mediocre returns regardless of purchase price [6]. - The essence of value investing is to buy simple, durable, and trustworthy companies at reasonable prices and hold them long-term [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on businesses that are easily understandable, filtering out 90% of complex industries [8]. - A safety margin is vital in risk management, avoiding high-risk decisions even with a high probability of success [9][10]. - Leverage should be avoided, as it amplifies risk and creates an asymmetry between potential gains and losses [10]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Investors should ignore market noise and focus on holding quality companies, akin to patient farming [12]. - Market downturns present opportunities to acquire quality assets at lower prices, with Buffett expressing a preference for market declines for potential excess returns [13]. - Ignoring macroeconomic predictions and focusing on company fundamentals is essential for sound investment decisions [14]. Group 5: Historical Lessons - Acknowledging past mistakes is crucial, with Buffett noting that the biggest errors often stem from missed opportunities rather than poor decisions [16]. Group 6: Career and Happiness - Passion for work is more important than monetary gain, with Buffett advising individuals to pursue careers they love [17]. - True happiness transcends material wealth, emphasizing the importance of autonomy and character in achieving a fulfilling life [18]. Conclusion - The ultimate value of Buffett's teachings lies in the principle that simplicity is eternal, with concepts like value investing, economic moats, and zero leverage remaining applicable in 2025 [19].
查理芒格:反过来想,总是反过来想
首席商业评论· 2025-09-23 04:00
逆向思维,一位智者的逆向人生与永恒投资哲学。 01 一位来自奥马哈的普通青年人 1924 年,查理·芒格出生在美国内布拉斯加州奥马哈市一个普通家庭。17 岁考入密歇根大学读数学,二战爆发后应征入伍,服役期间被派往气象学校,系统学习理 工科思维。战争结束,他靠 GI 法案进入加州理工学院,随后又以无大学文凭之身份破格被哈佛法学院录取,1948 年以优异成绩毕业,成为一名律师。 芒格早年在洛杉矶执业,却深感"用时间换钱"的天花板太低。于是,他在 30 岁出头开始同步涉足地产开发,以 10 万美元本金撬动百万利润,完成原始积累。35 岁那年,一场失败的婚姻与长子白血病的双重打击几乎将他拖入深渊,但他用理性与阅读自我疗愈,并坚定转向投资赛道,成立惠勒·芒格合伙公司,十年年化收 益跑赢道指 18 个百分点,为日后与巴菲特并肩作战奠定基石。 02 查理芒格与巴菲特相遇 1959 年 5 月,35 岁的芒格返回家乡奥马哈料理父亲后事,被共同好友安排与 29 岁的沃伦·巴菲特共进晚餐。两人从股票聊到商业、从阅读到人生,惊觉"灵魂频 率"完全一致,遂成莫逆。巴菲特戏称那晚"找到了失联多年的兄长",芒格则说"沃伦让我笑到肚子疼" ...
指数牛市狂奔,价值老将为何掉队?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 05:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of value investors underperforming during a bull market, highlighting that many investors have lost money despite the overall market index rising significantly [3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3900 points, with a cumulative increase of over 15% from previous levels [3][7]. - Over 60% of individual investors experienced losses during this bull market, with an average loss of 28% [7]. - Notably, 13 funds under a prominent institution failed to achieve positive returns, with six funds showing returns below -15% since their inception [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Specific funds under the Dongfanghong brand showed particularly poor performance, with the Dongfanghong Qixing Three-Year Holding A fund returning -35.05% since its establishment [5][6]. - Other underperforming funds included Dongfanghong Qirui Three-Year Holding A at -27.48% and Dongfanghong Xinyuan Three-Year Holding A at -20.11% [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The article identifies five traps that led to losses for value investors, including chasing speculative trends, neglecting long-term investment principles, and failing to maintain risk awareness [7][8][9]. - Investors often deviated from core value investment principles, leading to poor decision-making during the bull market [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The bull market exhibited structural differentiation, with certain stocks and sectors, such as the liquor industry, experiencing declines despite the overall index rising [10]. - Psychological factors, such as greed and fear, significantly influenced investor behavior, leading to poor timing in buying and selling stocks [11][12]. Group 5: Evolving Investment Strategies - Value investors are encouraged to redefine their strategies in light of changing market conditions, focusing on high dividend yield stocks and emerging sectors like AI and biotechnology [13][14]. - The need for continuous adaptation in investment strategies is emphasized, as traditional approaches may no longer be effective in the current market landscape [14][15].
芒格不犯大错的原因:把失败原因排成决策前的检查清单
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 15:21
Group 1 - Charlie Munger's unique thinking process involves reverse analysis, focusing on understanding failures before seeking success in life and business [4][3] - Munger emphasizes the importance of learning from historical failures across various fields, which aids in making sound decisions and avoiding significant mistakes [4][2] - His approach to knowledge is characterized by originality and a lack of adherence to rigid frameworks, allowing for innovative thinking and problem-solving [6][7] Group 2 - Munger advocates for a rational understanding of complex issues, enabling him to grasp the essence of unfamiliar domains quickly, a trait referred to as the "two-minute effect" by Warren Buffett [13][14] - He believes in the necessity of defining one's circle of competence, ensuring that decisions are made within the boundaries of one's expertise [10][11] - Munger's extensive research into human psychological biases has contributed to the field of behavioral finance, highlighting the impact of these biases on investment decisions [18][15] Group 3 - Munger's practical approach to problem-solving is evident in his broad interests, which span both hard and soft sciences, leading to a unique thought system [17][18] - His commitment to detail and hands-on involvement in projects, such as designing buildings, reflects his belief in the importance of personal engagement in all endeavors [19][20] - Munger's lifestyle choices, such as flying commercial to connect with ordinary people, demonstrate his desire to remain grounded and engaged with the world [27][28] Group 4 - Munger's philosophy emphasizes the significance of internal qualities over timing in achieving success, showcasing his disciplined and respectful nature in personal interactions [21][23] - His generosity and commitment to charitable causes illustrate his understanding of human weaknesses and the importance of giving back to the community [30][31] - The enduring partnership between Munger and Buffett is a testament to their unique qualities, which have led to unprecedented success in investment history [32]
满仓踏空怎么办?
水皮More· 2025-09-13 12:34
以下文章来源于张湧说财经 ,作者莫小城 前瞻的视角、通俗的语言、深刻的洞见、大众的立场 本文转载自公众号"张湧说财经" ID:peterzhangfinance 作者:莫小城 大家好,我是莫小城! 牛市都3800点了,很多人开始自嘲,说"满仓踏空" 我的观点是:不要怕踏空 ,又到了考验人性的时候了。 在我看来,这是很正常的,并不能证明你做错了什么。 张湧说财经 . 只要你选择的是拥有稀缺竞争优势的好公司,只要你在投资中紧盯"确定性",那么短期踏空是常有的 事。 01 一个长周期内确定性高的股票,在短期内涨得没有别的股票快,这是再正常不过的事情了。 这反而是在考验你的定力,如果你看到别人的股票都在涨,唯独自己的不涨; 结果经不住诱惑,如果半路切换到长得最快的赛道上; 相当于忘记初心,当初的来时路没有坚持下来,反而到新的路子上面去给人做别人的"接盘侠"。 这就相当于"东施效颦",不仅别人的"步子"没学会,结果连自己的"步子"也忘记了。 所以,投资不光看你的技能,更看你的经不经得起人性的诱惑。 中途切换赛道,改变了自己的投资策略是大忌, 这是投资中最差的一种结局。 做价值投资最不应该后悔的,就是错过短期机会。 你错 ...
查理芒格:反过来想,总是反过来想
首席商业评论· 2025-09-07 04:09
Group 1 - The article highlights the life and investment philosophy of Charlie Munger, emphasizing his journey from a modest background to becoming a prominent investor alongside Warren Buffett [2][3] - Munger's early career included law practice and real estate development, which laid the foundation for his later success in investment [4] - The partnership between Munger and Buffett transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a multi-trillion dollar conglomerate, achieving an annualized return of approximately 20% over 45 years [6] Group 2 - Munger's investment philosophy includes the concept of "thinking backward," which focuses on identifying potential failures rather than just successes, leading to a clearer understanding of risks [7] - He emphasizes the importance of knowing one's limitations and only investing in areas where one has expertise, thereby expanding one's circle of competence [7] - Munger advocates for buying great companies at fair prices, as demonstrated by the acquisition of See's Candies, which significantly contributed to Berkshire's cash flow over decades [8] Group 3 - The concept of a "moat" is central to Munger's investment strategy, where he seeks companies with strong competitive advantages that can withstand market pressures over time [9] - Munger employs a multi-disciplinary approach to investing, utilizing various fields of knowledge to avoid narrow thinking and enhance decision-making [10] - He promotes concentrated investing, arguing that good opportunities are rare and should be capitalized on heavily, as evidenced by Berkshire's top holdings consistently representing a large portion of its equity value [11] Group 4 - Munger's lifestyle choices reflect his investment philosophy, emphasizing delayed gratification and disciplined living to maximize long-term benefits [12] - The article concludes with Munger's formula for a remarkable life, which combines backward thinking, a defined circle of competence, a strong moat, and the power of compound interest [13]
价值投资的四个理念,你做到了么?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-04 14:11
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes focusing on companies that can generate profits over the long term, as many stocks may underperform or only occasionally yield profits [2][3]. - The concept of margin of safety is introduced, defined as purchasing an asset worth 1 unit for only 0.6 units [3]. - Various valuation metrics are discussed, including price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and price-to-book (P/B) ratio, along with absolute valuation methods like discounted cash flow [4]. Group 2 - The article describes the stock market's volatility, likening it to a "Mr. Market" who is erratic and provides daily price quotes, suggesting that investors should not be swayed by short-term fluctuations [7]. - It is advised to establish a personal investment philosophy and understand the intrinsic value of investments to identify undervalued opportunities [7]. - The concept of a "circle of competence" is mentioned, indicating the importance of investing within areas of expertise [8].
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-09-01 19:09
认清自己能力圈真的很重要,老实.jpg ...
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-08-31 15:13
敬畏成功,而不是将成功都归结于运气今天群里看到这个段子,不得不感叹一下,很多一直在场上的一级 “傻钱” 愿意一直枯坐等待机会的,都是 $TRUMP 、 $WLFI 、 $XPL 、 $PUMP 全都在场的,然而去了二级炒合约输了很多,这就是在能力圈的重要性加密红利不就是发生在这些高倍数的项目机会上吗?现在我们至少还有理财红利,等几年后理财的链上红利都没了怎么办呢。到时候 10后、20后来抱怨说:加密红利被 90后和 00后吃完了(直播间小伙伴说的)看不少人抱怨过参与这些需要 KYC、需要多号,需要链上有钱,这些门槛都并非不可克服现在圈外人看加密还跟神话一样,电影里加个加密元素都能让票房大卖,等到能克服这些所谓门槛的人一拥而上了,意味着对于加密的认知门槛也不存在了。那样加密红利才是真的没了,目前看完电影发现距离那里还有点远Vida (@Vida_BWE):查理芒格/沃伦巴菲特,这两个教科书人物带给观众最大的价值是教会人《人生的防御之道》/《保守打法》1. “只投资在自己优势圈里的公司” / “如果你在能力圈之外投资,那等于是在赌博。” ...
X @XQ
XQ· 2025-08-30 19:59
Investment Philosophy - Focus on investing within one's circle of competence to avoid gambling [1] - Learn from historical and real-time cases, especially failures, to avoid repeating mistakes [1] - Emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate role models for learning and imitation [1] Personal Development & Networking - Investing in oneself is the most fundamental investment, regardless of initial capital [3] - AI application skills, programming skills, wealth management skills, emotional intelligence, social skills, reputation, and network are all valuable investments in oneself [3] - Building a strong personal brand can lead to significant opportunities [3] - Cultivating relationships with successful individuals is crucial for learning and growth [1] - Internet facilitates connections with desired role models, enabling learning and emulation [1][3] Risk Management in Crypto Market - Common pitfalls in the crypto market include using leverage, experiencing fund theft, exchange/project failures, and overconfidence leading to poor investment decisions [1]