感谢王会长今天的邀请。这是一场规格很高的活动，我非常高兴有机会就供应链产业以及供应链的韧性与稳定性问题，分享一些个人的看法。与之前几位 发言人略有不同的是，在我研究这一议题时，发现了大量的中断、动荡与对立。这也是我们之所以要讨论这一问题的原因——如果一切顺利，自然就不会 有人担心稳定与安全。正因为过去几年，许多国家都采取了各种措施，全世界才会集中探讨如何应对供应链的安全与稳定问题。 2025年7月24日，全球化智库（CCG）在北京千禧大酒店成功举办第15期"名家对话午餐会"。会上，对外经贸大学法学院教授、中国世贸组织研究院研究 员纪文华发表以下观点： 首先，在推动过程方面，我认为应由一批志同道合、目光长远的WTO成员国发挥引领作用。这不应采取"观望"态度。然而，如今许多国家无论在供应链 问题上，还是在应对美国加征关税时，均采取观望策略。"观望"在当下已无济于事。因此，应当在WTO或G20等平台上发起非正式工作组或"小多边"倡 议，类似于"联合声明倡议"（JSI）的形式。这将有助于提高该议题的关注度并积聚推动力。 其次，在实质内容方面，这一安排可以包括哪些要素？我提出以下几点建议。当然，这不是详尽清单。作为一名 ...

美中贸易全国委员会组织美国高级别商界代表团本周访华，美中贸易全国委员会前政府事务副总裁安 娜.阿什顿在接受采访时表示，美国企业持续参与中国市场的意愿强烈，尽管美国"脱钩"讨论已久，实 际进展甚微，美中经济联系依然紧密。(CGTN) ...

Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing trade war, primarily driven by the U.S. under President Trump, is creating significant global economic implications, with the EU seeking to navigate its interests amidst U.S.-China tensions [1] - Trump's tiered tariff strategy, which includes a baseline 15% tariff, disproportionately impacts specific industries, such as a potential €26 billion loss for the German automotive sector and pressures on French brandy producers from Chinese anti-dumping investigations [3] - The EU's recent negotiations with China faced strong resistance, particularly regarding requests to lift rare earth export controls and halt energy trade with Russia, highlighting the complexities of international trade relations [4] Group 2: Economic Cooperation Amidst Tensions - Despite the political tensions, there are signs of pragmatic economic cooperation, such as the resumption of negotiations on electric vehicle anti-subsidy agreements and commitments from China to facilitate compliance applications for rare earth exports [6] - The logistics sector is feeling the strain from tariffs, with UPS announcing a workforce reduction of 20,000 and shipping costs rising by 20%, indicating the broader impact of trade policies on operational costs [8] - The deep interconnections in the global economy are evident, with significant trade flows continuing between the EU and China, including a notable increase in Chinese investments in the Eurozone despite rising tensions [8]

中国商务部部长王文涛：中美经贸关系历经风雨，双方仍互为重要经贸伙伴。事实证明，中美经贸合作有坚实的经济基础和民意基础，人为的“脱钩”是脱不掉的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in US-China economic relations are exacerbated by the US's frequent provocations, particularly regarding the rare earth supply chain, which China has recognized and is strategically responding to [1][4][9]. Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The high-level economic talks in Geneva resulted in a joint statement, with China demonstrating goodwill by suspending certain tariffs and non-tariff measures against the US [1][3]. - In contrast, the US quickly issued guidelines for AI chip export controls and cut off sales of semiconductor design software to China, undermining the outcomes of the Geneva talks [3][6]. Group 2: Rare Earth Supply Chain - China controls over 90% of the global rare earth magnet production and has implemented export restrictions, impacting not only the US but also other countries [4][7]. - The US has expressed concerns over China's rare earth export policies while ignoring the fact that these restrictions were not specifically targeting the US [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Dilemmas - The US faces a strategic dilemma as its automotive industry warns of production disruptions due to potential rare earth supply shortages, while its policies towards China appear chaotic and ineffective [6][9]. - There is a growing recognition that the US underestimates China's bargaining power and resolve to exit negotiations, which could lead to broader economic implications [6][9]. Group 4: Negotiation Dynamics - The negotiation dynamics reveal a fundamental conflict in logic, with China advocating for mutual respect and equal consultation, while the US employs a zero-sum game mentality [7][9]. - The US's strategy of "talking while fighting" has not succeeded in forcing concessions from China and has instead increased uncertainty in global supply chains [9].

据报道，外交部副部长马朝旭与美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话的消息引发关注。尽管中美双方新闻稿内容简洁，但字里行间透露的信号却耐人寻味。 结合近期中美关系动态及商界精英的表态，这场看似普通的通话背后，实则交织着贸易博弈、科技竞争与战略认知的多重角力。 在中美互动的关键节点，美国总统特朗普的处境颇为尴尬。近期他频繁释放访华信号，却未获中方回应，这打乱了其"以高姿态访华提振选情"的计划。 对特朗普而言，若无法在中期选举前展现"外交成果"，不仅金融市场信心受挫，选民也可能质疑其处理大国关系的能力。更棘手的是，其核心支持者开 始出现裂痕。马斯克作为特朗普的重要金主，不仅计划5月底从政府离职，更表态将减少政治捐款，两人互动频率显著下降。这种疏离背后，是商界对 特朗普激进政策的担忧——当"极限施压"既无法在贸易战中获利，又让科技企业丧失中国市场时，务实派精英必然重新评估战略选择。 从关税战到科技战，美国政客的思维始终未摆脱"冷战范式"，试图以对抗性逻辑压制中国发展。但现实是，中国早已构建起全产业链优势与庞大内需市 场：电力基础设施支撑着AI、芯片等前沿产业的能耗需求，超大规模人才储备推动技术迭代，而成熟的供应链体系更让"脱钩" ...

Group 1: Trump's Trade War Strategy - Trump's trade war is characterized by a belief that the U.S. is being exploited by other countries, with a focus on "fair trade" and "decoupling" from global trade systems [4][5] - The trade war's theoretical framework has evolved, with economists like Milan proposing a "optimal tariff" strategy to minimize domestic harm while applying tariffs [7][10] - The initial trade war strategies by Navarro and Lighthizer have faced academic criticism for their simplistic assumptions about trade dynamics [8][10] Group 2: Economic Impacts of the Trade War - The trade war has led to significant economic turmoil, with U.S. stock markets and bond yields experiencing volatility, indicating a failure of Trump's initial expectations [15][16] - Inflation and various economic indicators have worsened, leading to increased tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve [14][16] - The trade war has resulted in rising costs for American consumers, with major retailers like Walmart and Amazon facing pressure to raise prices due to increased tariffs [20] Group 3: Political Ramifications - The trade war has caused divisions within Trump's MAGA base, with key figures expressing dissent over the handling of the tariffs and their economic consequences [17][18] - Trump's attempts to shift blame for economic issues onto the Democratic Party have been met with skepticism, as his administration's actions have led to significant economic challenges [19][20] - The internal conflicts within the Republican Party may jeopardize their prospects in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, as the trade war's fallout continues to affect voter sentiment [18][20] Group 4: International Relations and Global Trade Dynamics - The trade war has accelerated changes in international relations, with traditional allies like Canada and Japan responding with retaliatory tariffs and a reluctance to make concessions [22][23] - Countries like India and Vietnam are attempting to capitalize on the trade war by attracting businesses looking to relocate from China, although skepticism remains about their capabilities [26] - The trade war has inadvertently strengthened China's position in global trade, as it contrasts its policies with the U.S. approach, fostering deeper ties with developing nations [26]

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, selling $18.9 billion in March and falling to $765.4 billion, now ranking third globally behind the UK [1][2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - This marks the first time in 25 years that China has dropped to third place in US Treasury bond holdings since becoming one of the top two holders in 2000 [2]. - China's peak holdings exceeded $1.3 trillion in 2015, accounting for 23.2% of total foreign holdings [2]. - The reduction in holdings began during the trade war initiated by Trump, with China relinquishing its top position back to Japan [4]. Group 2: Current Trends - As of now, China's share of US Treasury bonds has shrunk to approximately 2.1%, indicating a significant "decoupling" from US financial assets [5]. - In March, while China sold off bonds, overseas investments in US Treasury bonds saw a net inflow of $161.8 billion, highlighting China's unique position [6]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen sharply, reaching 4.48%, which has put pressure on the US financial markets [6][7]. Group 3: Implications for US Debt - The upcoming maturity of $6.5 trillion in US Treasury bonds in June poses a significant challenge, as it represents 70% of the year's total maturities [8]. - Rising interest rates could lead to increased debt servicing costs, potentially exceeding $200 billion [9]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating for the first time in history, reflecting growing concerns about US debt sustainability [10]. Group 4: China's Strategy - China has been gradually reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, indicating a shift towards risk diversification [15][19]. - As of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase over six months [19]. - The geopolitical landscape, including tensions over trade and territorial issues, has influenced China's strategy towards US debt [19][20]. Group 5: Global Context - The situation mirrors the financial weaponization seen in the case of Russia, which drastically reduced its US Treasury holdings following sanctions [21]. - The total US debt is approaching $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US credit system [21][22]. - China's remaining holdings of US Treasury bonds serve as a strategic asset in negotiations, reflecting the ongoing complexities in US-China relations [22].

新华财经新加坡5月17日电 在全球贸易环境趋于复杂、政策不确定性上升的背景下，新加坡2025年4月 非油品国内出口（Non-oil Domestic Exports 简称 NODX）同比增长12.4%，为近9个月以来的最大单月 升幅。尽管数据远超市场预期，但多家机构与官员提醒，强势增长背后掺杂短期因素，未来数月出口动 能恐将面临回调压力。 根据新加坡企业发展局5月16日发布的数据显示，4月NODX同比增长12.4%，高于3月的5.4%。电子产 品出口表现尤为亮眼，增长23.5%，带动个人电脑大涨124.3%，集成电路和磁盘介质产品分别增长 23.3%和33.0%。非电子产品亦有增长，增幅为9.3%，其中非货币黄金（Non-Monetary Gold）增幅高达 80.4%，船舶结构件（Structures of Ships and Boats）及专用机械增长7.2% 。 新加坡4月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）部分子项已跌破荣枯线，也表明新加坡制造业基础仍显脆弱。 大华银行（UOB）研究报告认为，4月出口反弹具有"典型政策推动特征"。该行指出，电子设备转口贸 易（Non-oil Re-exports）同比激增58 ...

央视网消息：5月12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布。如何读懂这份声明，声明中透露出哪些重要信息？来看总台央视记者财经老 王的解读。 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布。声明当然是非常专业严谨的，老王在这里给大家稍微通俗化"翻译"一下，方便大家理解。 声明里提到的几个文件主要是围绕着美国加征的所谓"对等关税"。4月份以来，美国对华加征的所谓"对等关税"一共是125%，中国也进行 了坚决正当反制。现在，按照双方达成的共识，美方取消其中共计91%的加征关税，暂停实施24%的"对等关税"90天，那么现在的对华"对等 关税"就是10%。中方也相应取消和暂停了部分反制关税。具体的，大家可以把这张图截屏保存细看。此外，中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的 非关税反制措施。不过，这次谈到的只是中美双方实施的关税中的一部分，像美方以"芬太尼"为由对华加征的关税以及中方实施的反制关税， 在声明中都没有提及。 联合国：中美经贸会谈是世界经济积极信号 当地时间12日，联合国秘书长发言人迪雅里克在回答央视记者提问时表示，联合国欢迎中美经贸高层会谈，中美经贸高层会谈是世界经济 的积极信号。 央视记者 徐德智：在中美经贸高层会谈之后，中美双方宣布 ...