来源:金融界AI电报 瑞士央行行长施莱格尔周末发表讲话时指出，尽管当前通胀水平仍稳定处于央行定义的物价稳定区间， 但瑞士极低的通胀率预计将温和回升。施莱格尔表示，目前通胀率处于央行0%-2%目标区间的下限，但 在未来几个季度可能"小幅上升"。施莱格尔重申，若要重启2015至2022年期间实施的负利率政策需要满 足极高门槛。他指出当前扩张性货币政策既支撑通胀也支持经济活力。针对新宣布的与美国初步贸易协 议，施莱格尔表示这将显著降低瑞士出口商品的关税，但警告称关税只是构成整体不确定性环境的因素 之一，而这种不确定性是"经济的毒药"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc has significantly appreciated recently, driven by safe-haven demand, leading to speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have intervened to curb its strength [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The Swiss Franc has experienced its ninth consecutive weekly increase, marking its best performance in two years [1]. - The exchange rate of the Swiss Franc against the Euro surged to a near ten-year high, approaching the critical level of 0.92 [1]. - Despite the Swiss policy rate remaining at zero, the Swiss Franc has seen the highest appreciation against the US Dollar among major developed currencies over the past month [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Risk-averse investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, with the Swiss Franc being a primary choice due to its stable economy and good governance [2]. - Analysts from Societe Generale noted that the risk of intervention by the Swiss National Bank is at its highest level [2]. - UBS analysts believe that the SNB may have already begun market intervention to lower the Swiss Franc's exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Swiss National Bank's Position - The Swiss National Bank does not comment on whether it intervenes in the currency market, and data proving intervention will be released later [3]. - The recent US-Swiss agreement not to manipulate exchange rates allows the SNB to focus on price stability while potentially using intervention to address deflationary pressures [3]. - The options market indicates that the SNB's unilateral actions may slow the appreciation of the Swiss Franc rather than reverse its upward trend [3]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The SNB's meeting minutes suggest that deflation is not a threat, with inflation expected to rise moderately in the coming months [4]. - Despite the Swiss Franc's strength against the US Dollar, it remains relatively stable against the Euro, with geopolitical shocks potentially driving funds into the Franc [4]. - Analysts expect the SNB to continue intervening in the 0.90-0.92 range to manage the Swiss Franc's strength [4].

Group 1: Eurozone and US Economic Outlook - Monex Europe analysts indicate that the weak growth and fiscal concerns in the Eurozone will limit the euro's appreciation potential, suggesting that the euro may only see slight increases if market risk appetite remains strong and interest rate differentials favor the euro [1] - Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes warns that the US economy faces risks of a mild recession, which could lead to significant rate cuts and a weaker dollar, drawing parallels to the 2001-2003 period when the Fed drastically reduced rates from 6.5% to 1.0% [2] - Kudotrade analysts highlight that the upcoming US inflation data will be crucial for assessing future interest rate prospects, with expectations that if the data meets or falls below forecasts, it could reinforce market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026 [1][2] Group 2: Credit Market and Bond Ratings - Concerns over the stability of US regional banks persist, keeping the cost of credit default swaps for US bank bonds at elevated levels, as two banks recently disclosed exposure to bad loans [2] - Danske Bank notes that S&P's downgrade of France's credit rating may increase pressure on French government bonds, with expectations that Moody's will also revise France's outlook from stable to negative [2] Group 3: Gold and Swiss Monetary Policy - ANZ analysts report that investors are increasingly seeking refuge in gold amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold experiencing its largest weekly gain in five years due to the collapse of the US credit market [3] - Capital Economics economists predict that the Swiss National Bank may reintroduce negative interest rates due to near-zero inflation levels and ongoing geopolitical risks, potentially lowering the key rate from 0% to -0.25% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Economists have largely abandoned predictions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering interest rates into negative territory, with only Barclays and Bloomberg Economics forecasting a 25 basis point cut to -0.25% at the December 11 policy meeting [1] Group 1: Current Predictions - Only two institutions, Barclays and Bloomberg Economics, predict a rate cut by the SNB in December [1] - Capital Economics anticipates that any potential rate cut will occur in June of the following year [1] - Goldman Sachs and Pantheon Macroeconomics have shifted their views, now aligning with 15 other analysts who believe that zero interest rates will be the final level [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In June, the SNB's benchmark interest rate was lowered to zero, leading to seven institutions predicting a return to negative rates [1] - Prior to the September rate decision, five institutions also expected the SNB to implement negative rates [1] Group 3: SNB's Stance - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for reintroducing negative rates is significantly higher than for conventional rate cuts [1] - Schlegel noted the negative impact of the previous negative rate policy (2015-2022) on the financial system [1] Group 4: Market Influences - Analyst Jean Dalbard indicated that the foreign exchange market may ultimately compel the SNB to take action [1] - The strengthening of the Swiss franc and the impact of higher-than-expected tariffs from the U.S. on economic growth are key risks facing the SNB [1] - Dalbard predicts that if the Swiss franc continues to strengthen, the SNB may lower rates in December [1]

Core Points - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0%, marking the end of a series of six consecutive rate cuts since March 2024 [1][3][5] - The SNB is prepared to lower rates below zero if mid-term inflation exceeds the price stability range [4][5] Monetary Policy - The SNB's current monetary policy aims to control inflation within the target range of 0% to 2% and support economic growth [3][4] - The SNB has not observed significant changes in inflation pressure compared to the previous quarter [3][4] - The SNB has previously implemented negative interest rates from December 2014 to September 2022, which raised concerns among savers and pension funds [4][5] Economic Outlook - The SNB forecasts Switzerland's GDP growth for 2025 to be between 1% and 1.5%, with inflation expected at 0.2% [4][6] - The global economic growth is anticipated to slow down due to U.S. tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty [6][7] - The Swiss economy has shown signs of weakness, with a GDP growth of only 0.5% in the second quarter following strong growth in the first quarter [7] Trade and Tariffs - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. on Swiss goods has significantly impacted the Swiss economy, particularly affecting exports and investments [7][8] - Nearly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. are expected to be affected by the new tariffs, which have been described as unprecedented [7][8] Public Sentiment - A recent poll indicates that a majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the U.S. regarding tariffs, with many preferring to rely more on domestic products [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0%, marking the end of a series of six consecutive rate cuts since March 2024, amidst stable inflation pressures and economic support needs [1][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The SNB's decision to hold the interest rate at 0% is the lowest among major global central banks [3]. - The central bank has indicated readiness to lower rates below zero if mid-term inflation exceeds the price stability range [2][4]. - The SNB has cumulatively cut rates by 175 basis points over the past year, with the last cut occurring on June 19, 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The SNB expects Switzerland's GDP growth for 2025 to be between 1% and 1.5%, slightly up from previous forecasts [4][7]. - The central bank has noted that the Swiss economy is facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs and high uncertainty, which may suppress exports and investments [6][7]. - The inflation rate in Switzerland has returned to the SNB's target range of 0% to 2% after a period of decline [4]. Group 3: Currency Performance - The Swiss Franc has appreciated significantly this year, gaining over 12% against the U.S. dollar and nearly 1% against the euro, making it one of the best-performing currencies among G-10 [4][5]. - Following the announcement to pause rate cuts, the Swiss Franc's exchange rates remained stable against the euro and the dollar [4]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Trade Relations - A recent poll indicated that a majority of Swiss citizens oppose making concessions to the U.S. regarding tariffs, with many preferring to rely more on domestic products [7]. - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. on Swiss goods has raised concerns about significant economic pressure on Switzerland, particularly affecting its export-driven economy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0%, indicating readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. This decision aligns with market expectations, but there are concerns about the impact of high U.S. tariffs on Swiss economic growth, which may lead to potential rate cuts in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The SNB's current monetary policy is described as expansionary, with a higher threshold for entering negative interest rates compared to normal rate cuts. The bank is prepared to use all available tools if needed [1][3]. - The chief economist at Syz Bank believes that the current robust monetary policy is reasonable given the economic and political landscape, with the main concern being uncertainty surrounding the export sector [1]. - UBS economists highlight that tariffs pose the greatest downside risk to Swiss economic growth in the short term, and even a reduction in rates to negative territory may not effectively counteract the impact of tariffs [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - Swiss GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.5% by the second quarter of 2025, with high U.S. tariffs likely to suppress exports and investments, particularly in the machinery and watchmaking sectors. However, the service sector remains resilient [2]. - The SNB forecasts moderate economic growth, with GDP growth expectations of 1% to 1.5% for 2025, slowing to nearly 1% in 2026, and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate [2]. - Current inflation pressures are mild, with the Swiss inflation rate rising to 0.2% in August, driven mainly by the tourism sector and imported goods. The SNB projects inflation rates of 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027 if the policy rate remains at 0% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The "History of Overseas Central Bank Bond Purchases" series systematically analyzes key stages of bond - purchase policies of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank. Their policies have similarities and differences in approach, implementation timing, and scale [1]. - The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's bond - purchase policies evolved from traditional to innovative tools. The Bank of Japan was a pioneer in unconventional monetary policies, starting quantitative easing in 2001. The Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing in 2008. The ECB was more cautious about unconventional policies and started full - scale quantitative easing in 2015 [1]. - The bond - purchase policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB, and the Bank of Japan have been complex. The Federal Reserve ended QE in 2014, then had a slow balance - sheet reduction (QT), which was halted early in 2019. It restarted QE in 2022 due to the pandemic and then QT due to high inflation. The ECB stopped APP net purchases in 2018, restarted in 2019, and ended bond - buying in 2022 and started passive QT in 2023. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates and started balance - sheet reduction in March 2024. The Bank of Japan's exit was more cautious and delayed, the Federal Reserve's policy cycle was more flexible, and the ECB's policy shift was more sluggish [2]. - The bond - purchase scales of the three central banks are huge. As of August 20, 2025, the Bank of Japan's scale was 574.8 trillion yen, the Federal Reserve's was $6.5 trillion, and the ECB's was 4.2 trillion euros, accounting for 79.5%, 98.6%, and 69.2% of their total assets respectively. Relative to economic aggregates, the Bank of Japan's balance - sheet expansion was more significant [3]. - The Federal Reserve and the ECB have a wider range of bond - purchase categories. The Federal Reserve mainly buys MBS and Treasury bonds. The ECB's bond - purchase scope includes government bonds, covered bonds, asset - backed securities, and corporate bonds. The Bank of Japan, besides buying Treasury bonds, also buys a large amount of stock ETFs and J - REITs [3]. - The Bank of Japan's YCC policy directly sets an interest - rate ceiling, marking a new stage in monetary policy by shifting from controlling bond - purchase quantity to controlling bond interest rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog First Stage (2009 - 2010): First Attempt during the Sub - prime Crisis - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Provide liquidity to the bond market. After the 2008 financial crisis, the euro - area banking system faced a liquidity crisis, especially in the covered - bond market [14][15]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Continuously make small - scale purchases in the primary and secondary markets. In May 2009, the ECB announced the CBPP, buying 600 billion euros of covered bonds from July 2009 to June 30, 2010, with a maximum holding of 611.4 billion euros [16]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The CBPP had a certain boosting effect on the covered - bond market, reducing the yield and spread of bank - issued covered bonds and enhancing bank financing ability. However, due to its limited scale, its impact on the overall bond market and economy was relatively mild [17]. Second Stage (2010 - 2012): Emergency Response during the European Debt Crisis - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Provide liquidity to the bond market. After the Greek debt crisis, market panic spread to peripheral countries, causing a sell - off of their sovereign bonds and a surge in yields. The ECB launched the "Securities Markets Programme" (SMP) to address market liquidity and financing difficulties [22]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Buy sovereign bonds of troubled countries in the secondary market. The SMP aimed to buy public and private - sector bonds in the secondary market without disclosing the quantity, time frame, or target level. It initially focused on Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, then expanded to Italy and Spain. The ECB also sterilized the injected liquidity. In 2011, SMP was restarted and expanded. The SMP's total reached a maximum of 2,195 billion euros by March 5, 2012. In 2011, the ECB launched CBPP2 with a planned scale of 400 billion euros but only bought 164 billion euros. In 2012, the "Outright Monetary Transactions" (OMT) plan was introduced but never activated [23][24]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The SMP had an immediate positive impact on the bond market, reducing the yields of Spanish and Italian bonds. The OMT had an "announcement effect", significantly reducing the yields of Spanish and Italian bonds. However, as the economic recovery was weak, the effectiveness of the SMP decreased [25]. Third Stage (2013 - 2018): Full - scale Quantitative Easing under Persistent Low Inflation - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Implement QE in the euro area. After the European debt crisis, the euro - area economy recovered slowly, with low inflation and high financing costs. The ECB introduced negative interest rates and launched multiple bond - purchase programs [31]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Use a combination of measures. In 2014, the ECB announced CBPP3 and the Asset - Backed Securities Purchase Program (ABSPP). CBPP3 bought covered bonds, with a holding of 2,702 billion euros by the end of 2018. ABSPP bought asset - backed securities, with a holding of 276 billion euros by the end of 2018. In 2015, the Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) was launched, including the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) and the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). The APP ended net purchases in December 2018, with a cumulative net purchase of about 2.65 trillion euros [32][33][35]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The ECB's large - scale bond purchases led to a significant decline in long - term government bond yields in the euro area. The yields of German 10 - year government bonds fell into negative territory in 2016, and the yields of French bonds also dropped close to zero. The spread between peripheral and core countries generally narrowed [39]. Fourth Stage (2019 - 2023): Emergency Bond - purchase Plan during the Pandemic - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Intervene promptly to maintain financial stability. In 2019, due to economic slowdown and low inflation, the ECB restarted QE. In 2020, the "Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme" (PEPP) was launched to deal with the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic [42]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Systematically increase purchases. In September 2019, the ECB restarted QE with a monthly purchase of 200 billion euros. In March 2020, an additional 1,200 billion euros of purchases were announced. The PEPP was launched in March 2020 with an initial scale of 7,500 billion euros, which was later expanded to 1.85 trillion euros. The PEPP ended net purchases in March 2022, with a cumulative purchase of about 1.71 trillion euros [43][45]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The PEPP effectively alleviated market panic, stabilized investor confidence, and reduced excessive market volatility. During the implementation and scale - expansion of the PEPP, the 10 - year bond yields in Europe generally declined. When the purchase speed slowed down, bond yields generally rose [52]. Summary and Insights from Overseas Central Bank Bond Purchases - Similarities and differences exist among the bond - purchase policies of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the ECB in terms of approach, implementation timing, and scale, as detailed in the core viewpoints above [53].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role and impact of central banks in the global economy, particularly focusing on unconventional monetary policies implemented during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting both their effectiveness and unintended negative consequences [3][4]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction emphasizes the pervasive influence of central banks, likening their role to both a magician and a dictator in the economic world, and discusses the mysterious qualities of power in financial systems [8]. Chapter 1: Legacy of the Great Depression - This chapter explores the historical context of central banking, including the lessons learned from past financial crises and the evolution of crisis management strategies [8]. Chapter 2: Leverage as Poison - It identifies five driving factors behind the largest financial crisis in history, including the U.S. housing bubble and the role of securitization in spreading risk [8]. Chapter 3: The Road to Hell - The chapter details the global spread of financial turmoil, the interplay between monetary markets and major financial institutions, and the responses from the U.S. and European central banks [8]. Chapter 4: Breaking the Norms - This section discusses the unconventional measures taken during financial crises, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, and the challenges faced by central banks in managing these policies [9]. Chapter 5: High Costs - It outlines various syndromes that emerged from the financial crisis, illustrating the complex consequences of central bank interventions and the emergence of shadow banking [9]. Chapter 6: The Eve of Change - The final chapter reflects on the need for a paradigm shift in monetary policy, questioning the long-standing 2% inflation target and advocating for a more balanced approach to financial stability [9]. Conclusion - The conclusion calls for a new path towards stable growth in the financial system, moving beyond unconventional measures [9].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - Japan's monetary policy framework has undergone several structural changes since the introduction of the zero interest rate policy in February 1999, primarily due to prolonged deflation and economic stagnation[1] - The direct goal of the monetary policy framework from 2013 to 2023 was to address the long-term economic stagnation and chronic deflation that followed the bursting of the economic bubble in the early 1990s[2] - The introduction of the quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) policy in April 2013 aimed to double the monetary base within two years to stabilize inflation at 2%[2] Group 2: Key Policy Components - The QQE policy was complemented by the introduction of negative interest rates in January 2016 and the yield curve control (YCC) policy in September 2016[3] - The QQE policy led to a temporary increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate to 3.7% in 2014, but it fell back to around 0% due to declining global commodity prices and an increase in the consumption tax[2] - The negative interest rate policy aimed to lower nominal interest rates below the natural rate and alter overall inflation expectations, with excess reserves divided into three categories with different interest rates[3] Group 3: Economic Impact - Japan's natural rate of interest has been on a downward trend since the 1990s, contributing to weak demand and low corporate growth expectations[2] - The prolonged deflation led to a stagnation in the normal economic cycle, where price increases, corporate profits, wage growth, and demand expansion became disconnected[2] - The structural issues in Japan's economy resulted in a shift from a capital shortage to an excess savings situation among firms, leading to "balance sheet recession" and low potential GDP growth rates[2]