证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 债市跟随股市起舞 2025年8月23日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约周一跳空低开后大幅下跌，周二横向波动，周三大幅下跌，周四探底反弹，周五略有回落， 全周30年国债跌1.05%，10年国债跌0.52%，5年国债跌0.28%，2年国债跌0.03%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 8月22日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与8月15日相比表现整体平行上移。2年期国债到期收益率从8月15 日的1.40%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.439% ；5年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.59%上行4个BP至8月22日 的1.63% ；10年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.75%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.78% ；30年期国债到期收 益率从8月15日的2.05%上行3个BP至8月22日的2.08% 。 7月份，全国一般公共预算收入20273亿元，同比增长2. ...

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2][3] - The income from government funds decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the expenditure increased by 31.7% [2][3] Public Finance Income - The public finance income turned from decline to growth, with personal income tax growth expanding to 8.8%, driven by structural changes and contributions from high-income groups [3] - The overall completion of the national general public budget revenue for the year reached 61.8%, lower than the average of the past five years [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%, with social security and employment expenditures growing by 9.8% [4] - The completion of the national general public budget expenditure for the year reached 54.1%, also lower than the average of the past five years [4] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund income decreased by 0.7%, while expenditure increased by 31.7%, mainly due to the acceleration of special bonds and local special bonds [5] - The broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year [5] Financial Engineering Research - All major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 7.98% [6] - As of August 19, the margin trading balance reached 2,124.28 billion yuan, an increase of 96.33 billion yuan from the previous week [6][7] Industry Research - The first World Humanoid Robot Games concluded successfully, highlighting the progress in the humanoid robot industry [9][11] - In July, forklift sales reached 118,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [9] - The machinery equipment industry outperformed the broader market, with a 3.45% increase in the industry index [10]

Economic Growth - The main economic indicators in Gansu Province have shown steady growth in the first seven months of the year, with overall economic operation remaining stable [1][2] - The industrial production has increased significantly, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 9.5% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a value increase of 4.1%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 12.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 10.2% [1] - Out of 37 major industry categories, 25 reported growth in production activities [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 4.4% when excluding real estate development investments [1] - Infrastructure investment rose by 7.4%, and manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, while real estate development investment declined by 14.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2500.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2] - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted retail sales in categories such as home appliances (54.3% growth), communication equipment (37.0% growth), and furniture (20.8% growth) [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 394.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [2] - Exports grew by 33.2% to 95.5 billion yuan, while imports increased by 21.9% to 299.1 billion yuan [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 74.4% of total trade, with a growth of 21.0% [2] Fiscal and Financial Stability - The general public budget revenue was 658.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while expenditures increased by 5.3% to 2848.6 billion yuan [2] - By the end of July, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 30383.8 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, and the loan balance was 29981.5 billion yuan, up by 4.3% [2]

本报讯（记者张月朦）市财政局昨天公布本市1-7月财政收支情况。1-7月，北京完成一般公共预算收入 4182.4亿元，增长3.6%，全市一般公共预算支出完成5085.3亿元，增长2.6%，其中重点支出领域为教育 领域、科技领域、卫生健康领域和社会保障领域。此外，本轮强降雨灾情中，市财政局已累计下达资金 4.7亿元，全力以赴支持做好应急抢险、受灾群众安置和灾后恢复重建等工作。 从重点支出领域看：教育支出740.0亿元，增长7.9%，主要是适应学龄人口趋势变化，落实普惠性幼儿 园财政补助政策，支持扩充中小学学位和市属高校双一流建设、新校区开办等。科技支出383.3亿元， 增长11.2%，主要是聚焦国际科创中心建设，资金分配向基础研究、应用研究、国家战略科技任务聚 焦，推动"三城一区"发展。卫生健康支出451.5亿元，增长8.1%，主要是保障公立医疗机构平稳运行， 推动优质医疗资源均衡布局，支持提升基层医疗卫生救治服务能力和灾后环境卫生治理等工作。社会保 障和就业支出836.3亿元，增长7.9%，主要是不断完善多层次的社会保障体系，支持"技能照亮前程"培 训行动，促进高校毕业生等重点群体就业创业。城乡社区支出597. ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, marking the first positive cumulative increase of the year [1] - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20273 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, both being the highest monthly growth rates of the year [1] - Tax revenue in July amounted to 18018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%, continuing the upward trend since April when it turned positive [1] - From January to July, the national general public budget expenditure totaled 160737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, ensuring adequate funding for key areas such as social security, employment, education, and health [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in both revenue and expenditure growth in July 2025, primarily driven by improved tax revenue and proactive government spending focused on public welfare [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [1]. - Tax revenue showed a significant rebound, while non-tax revenue continued to decline, indicating a shift towards improved tax collection [1]. - Local revenue growth outpaced that of the central government, alleviating some fiscal pressure at the local level [1]. - Specific tax categories such as domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed marginal improvements, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting a more active stock market [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure rose by 3.4% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with July showing a recovery in growth [2]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth rates and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints from revenue [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included health care and social security, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [2]. - Government fund revenue growth saw a marginal decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months, influenced by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2]. Government Fund Expenditure Summary - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with central and local levels growing by 4.5 times and 18.1%, respectively [3]. - The acceleration in bond issuance and utilization was a significant factor driving this growth, with 2.89 trillion yuan allocated to government fund budget expenditures [3]. - Despite a slight decline in the growth rate of government fund budget expenditure in July, it remained at a high level [3]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that there are positive signs in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with improved tax collection and accelerated local revenue growth helping to ease fiscal pressures [3]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [3]. - The ongoing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, require close monitoring, with expectations for continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure in July 2025, indicating a recovery in tax revenue and an increase in spending focused on public welfare and effective investment [5]. Group 1: Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue from January to July 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [3]. - Tax revenue has shown significant improvement, particularly in domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continues to decline [3]. - Local revenue growth outpaced central revenue, alleviating fiscal pressure at the grassroots level [3]. Group 2: Expenditure Analysis - National general public budget expenditure from January to July 2025 rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with July's expenditure growth rate also increasing [3]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints on revenue [3]. - Key areas of expenditure included health, social security, and employment, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [3]. Group 3: Government Fund and Debt - Government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, although July saw a high growth rate, which is attributed to a low base from the previous year [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance and utilization of bond funds, with local government special bonds and central financial institution injections contributing significantly [4]. Group 4: Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that July's fiscal data reflects positive changes, with improved tax revenue and accelerated local fiscal income helping to ease financial pressures [5]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [5]. - Despite these positive indicators, challenges remain in the economic landscape, particularly regarding real estate demand [5].

【大河财立方消息】8月19日，财政部公布1—7月财政收支情况。 一、全国一般公共预算收支情况 1—7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。其中，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比 下降0.3%；非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入58538亿元， 同比下降2%；地方一般公共预算本级收入77301亿元，同比增长1.8%。 主要税收收入项目情况如下： 1.国内增值税42551亿元，同比增长3%。 （一）一般公共预算收入情况。 2.国内消费税10213亿元，同比增长2.1%。 3.企业所得税30566亿元，同比下降0.4%。 4.个人所得税9279亿元，同比增长8.8%。 5.进口货物增值税、消费税10300亿元，同比下降6.1%。关税1316亿元，同比下降6.5%。 6.出口退税14065亿元，同比增长9.7%。 7.城市维护建设税3105亿元，同比增长2.7%。 8.车辆购置税1183亿元，同比下降18.4%。 10.资源税1747亿元，同比下降1.6%。 11.契税2694亿元，同比下降15%。 12.房产税3201亿元，同比增长11.2%。 13. ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the national general public budget revenue showed the highest growth in July, with the cumulative growth for January to July turning positive for the first time this year [1][5]. Revenue Performance - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 202.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, marking the highest monthly growth of the year [3]. - For the period of January to July, the total national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.1%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a significant narrowing of decline, with July tax revenue at 180.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, continuing to recover since April [8]. - From January to July, total tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, down by 0.3%, but this decline was 0.9 percentage points less than in the first half of the year. Domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3% and 2.1% respectively, with increases of 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half [8]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with tax revenue from railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment growing by 33%, and computer and communication equipment by 10.1% [10]. - The scientific research and technical service industry saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors grew by 4.1% [10]. Expenditure Overview - National general public budget expenditure maintained growth, with total expenditure from January to July reaching 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [11]. - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment, which grew by 9.8%, education by 5.7%, and health by 5.3%, while housing security expenditure saw a slight increase of 0.2% [13].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 20 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政收支改善，发力继续前置——7 月财政数据点评 7 月财政收入边际改善，财政支出维持较高增速。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，7 月广义财政收入当月同比 0.0%，较今年 此前增速有回升。支出端，7 月广义财政支出同比增速 12.1%，环比回落， 但增速仍较高。 收入端，7 月一般预算收入增速提升且结构改善，政府性基金收入维持正 增长，持续性有待观察。2025 年 7 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 2.65% （前值-0.3%），税收收入同比 5.0%（（前值 1.0%），非税收入同比-12.93% （前值-3.7%），财政收入结构上有改善。7 月，政府性基金收入当月同比 8.9%（前值 20.8%），考虑到土地成交与纳入政府性基金收入存在时滞， 以及当前下游房地产投资增速持续偏弱，持续性有待进一步观察。 财政收入的改善主要来源于税收收入，增值税和企业所得税对税收增长的 贡献较多。7 月税收同比 5.0%，四大税种表现均较优，国内增值税同比 4.3%，消费税同比 5.4%，企业所得税同比 ...