Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic data for November indicates a weakening in China's economy, particularly in domestic demand, with consumption, fixed asset investment, and the real estate market showing signs of decline [1][4] - Industrial enterprises are experiencing negative growth in revenue and profit for two consecutive months, raising concerns about corporate profitability and its impact on stock valuations [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Performance**: November's industrial value added showed a slight increase of 0.44% month-on-month, but high-tech industries grew at a slower pace, with some sectors like smartphones and solar batteries experiencing negative growth [2][4] - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth was only 1.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in categories such as jewelry and home appliances due to high base effects and recent price fluctuations [2][3] - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing declines [2][4] - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate sector continues to struggle, with sales volume and area reaching their lowest points of the year, indicating a lack of recovery [3][4] - **Corporate Profitability**: Industrial enterprises reported a revenue decline of 0.3% and a profit drop of 13.1% year-on-year, with the profit margin decreasing to 5.3% [5][6] - **Inventory and Debt Levels**: Industrial inventories are on the rise, with nominal and actual inventories increasing by 4.6% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating growing operational pressures [7] - **Monetary Policy**: M1 and M2 money supply growth has slowed, reflecting weak consumer demand, while short-term loans to households decreased significantly [8] - **Fiscal Policy**: General public fiscal revenue fell to -0.02% year-on-year, with government spending growth lagging behind previous years, particularly in infrastructure [8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Government Initiatives**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to stimulate economic potential, stabilize the real estate market, and boost investment, which may enhance risk appetite in the market [2][4][15] - **Sectoral Performance**: High-tech manufacturing and related raw material industries are showing resilience, while traditional consumer goods and public utilities face challenges [8][10] - **Future Outlook**: The fiscal rhythm is expected to accelerate in 2026, with a focus on timely implementation of policies to support economic recovery and corporate profitability [10][11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current challenges and potential policy responses within the Chinese economy and specific industries.

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 22 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】长龄液压（605389）公司深度：核芯系拟入主，液压件龙头将开启新篇章— —20251219 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商宏观 李超/潘高远】宏观深度报告：11 月财政收支双缓，与基本面放缓一致——20251218 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/赵闻恺】A 股策略周报：中线方向三天两变，一颗红心、两手准备——20251220 【浙商固收 胡建文】债券市场专题研究：跨年资金成本低于预期，存单曲线走陡进行时——20251221 浙商早报 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】长龄液压（605389）公司深度：核芯系拟入主，液压件龙 头将开启新篇章——20251219 1、机械-长龄液压（605389） 2、推荐逻辑：核 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax incentives, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][48]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [6][47]. - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in November showed improved expenditure but pressured income, with broad fiscal expenditure down 1.7% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October [2][7]. - Broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2% year-on-year in November, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][50]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Fiscal Performance - The divergence in fiscal revenue is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag of land finance, with November 2024 broad fiscal revenue showing a recovery of 11% year-on-year, creating high base pressure [8][48]. - The income growth rate weakened, further constraining overall financial expansion space, while the low performance of land finance persisted [2][8]. Group 3: Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan limit on local special bonds and the implementation of financial tools became significant supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November, with government fund expenditure turning positive [10][49]. - Despite the ongoing drag from land finance and short-term pressure on income, the fiscal expenditure growth rate is expected to continue recovering due to the support from the local debt limit [10][49]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus of fiscal revenue may emphasize maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [13][48]. - The expenditure side will prioritize addressing local fiscal difficulties and urging local governments to actively manage debts, targeting both the stock of hidden debts and the flow issues of local financial resources [13][48].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[3] - Central government revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 4.1%[4] - Cumulative fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of the year grew by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest levels in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022[3] Group 2: Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 8.6% previously, with corporate income tax showing a significant decline of 5.2%[4] - Personal income tax grew by 11.4% year-on-year, while domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 3.3%[5] - The decline in corporate income tax is attributed to an early revenue recognition effect from the previous year's fourth quarter[4] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in November decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with cumulative expenditure progress at 84%, the slowest in five years[6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures, particularly in agriculture and community services, saw significant declines, with cumulative spending down by 13.6% and 8.3% respectively[6] - Technology expenditure, however, increased by 27.4% year-on-year, indicating a shift in spending priorities[6] Group 4: Broader Fiscal Context - The fiscal deficit reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, largely due to reduced infrastructure spending[7] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[7] - The upcoming fiscal policies for 2026 are expected to be crucial, with potential acceleration in spending to stimulate economic activity[8]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 11 月财政收入同比有所回落，一般公共预算收入同比 0.0% （前值 3.2% ），主要受去年 " 924 " 后的高基数影响。去年 11-12 月中央财 政在组织收入的同时，还专门安排有关中央单位上缴一部分专项收益，形成了高基数；而地方财政收入受基数影响相对较小，与前期基本持平。 扣除基数因素看， 11 月财政收入基本符合季节性水平，非税收入表现则略强于近年同期平均水平。今年前 11 个月一般公共预算收入累计同比 0.8% ，在过去十年中属于偏低的年份，仅好于 2020 和 2022 年，与名义增长中枢有待提升有关。 第二， 分税种来看，11月四大主要税种中增速下行较明显的是企业所得税，或源自去年四季度该税种提前入库效应。而个人所得税、国内增值 税则表现较强。其中，个人所得税三季度以来一直表现超季节性，年累计同比已达11.5%，一则或与资本市场表现活跃有关，二则或与近期实施 的《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》有关。国内增值税表现也较有韧性，11月同比为3.3%，除PPI环比改善外，部分可能源于近期 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 2025年11月，我国财政收支数据有不同幅度的转弱，呈现出收入增速回落、支出降幅收窄的运行态势。 财政部17日发布数据显示，今年1—11月，全国一般公共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%，与1— 10月增速持平，其中，全国税收收入164814亿元，同比增长1.8%；11月财政收入1.4万亿元，持平于 2024年同期，增速边际回落。 "从主要分项看，在基数抬升的情况下，个人所得税、增值税收入仍有不错表现。不过，企业所得税收 入受到较大扰动，同比增速转负。此外，消费税收入增速有所回落，出口退税收入降幅明显。考虑到下 半年房地产需求调整，经济增长的内生动能还需增强，宏观积极政策仍需加码。"国泰海通研究所宏观 首席分析师梁中华对《华夏时报》记者表示。 支出方面，前11个月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长1.4%，比前10个月回落0.6个百分点。其中，11 月当月同比增速-3.7%，相比10月的-9.8%，降幅边际有所收窄。不过，在去年同期低基数的情况下，本 月整体财政支出增速仍处于低位。 按照中央经济工作会议要求，2026年将继续实施更加积极的财政政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][3][18] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [5] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while the broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2%, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][6] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag from land finance [11][19] - The government fund revenue in November saw a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, although the decline was narrowed by 2.6 percentage points compared to October [24][29] - The general fiscal expenditure budget completion rate in November was 8%, lower than the five-year average of 8.4% [38] Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [15][49] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative growth in October [38][49] Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal revenue strategy for 2026 may focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and addressing local fiscal difficulties while encouraging local governments to actively manage debts [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][48] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [1][6] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a significant improvement with a year-on-year decline of -1.7%, narrowing the drop by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while fiscal revenue fell by -5.2%, a further decline of 4.6 percentage points [2][7][50] Group 2: Factors Influencing Fiscal Performance - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances in the revenue side and the ongoing drag from land finance [2][8] - The broad fiscal revenue in November 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -5.2%, with government fund revenue down by -15.8% and general fiscal revenue at -0.02% [4][14] Group 3: Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan limit on local special bonds and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [3][10] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative position in October, attributed to the 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit [39][50] Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, the fiscal revenue focus may include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, standardizing tax incentives, addressing local fiscal difficulties, and urging local governments to actively manage debts [13][49] - The central economic work conference indicates that the revenue side will emphasize maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [2][48]

2025 年 12 月 18 日 政府性基金支出大幅回暖 宏观研究团队 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 相关研究报告 《美联储继续降息紧迫性并不高—美 国 11 月非农就业数据点评》 -2025.12.17 《黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点—宏 观经济专题》-2025.12.16 《需求仍偏弱，制造业和基建低位企 稳—兼评 11 月经济数据》-2025.12.16 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 14026 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 22713 亿元。政府性基金预算收入 5801 亿元，政府性基金预算支出 11232 亿元。 税收增长边际放缓；财政支出力度回升，民生类支出有待加码 1、财政收入边际降速，税收乏力、非税收入小幅回升。11 月狭义财政收入 14026 亿元，同比下降 0.02%，增速边际放缓。1-11 月公共财政收入累计增速持平 0.8%。 税收收入增速边际走弱，11 月税收收入录得 11450 亿元，同比增长 2.8%（前值 ...

新华社北京12月17日电 （记者申铖）财政部12月17日发布数据显示，今年前11个月，全国一般公 共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%。 全国政府性基金预算收支方面，前11个月，全国政府性基金预算收入40274亿元，同比下降4.9%； 全国政府性基金预算支出92124亿元，同比增长13.7%，主要是各级财政持续加快债券资金使用。 财政支出方面，前11个月，全国一般公共预算支出248538亿元，同比增长1.4%。分中央和地方 看，中央一般公共预算本级支出38232亿元，同比增长6.2%；地方一般公共预算支出210306亿元，同比 增长0.6%。 各级财政部门认真落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域 的支出保障。从主要支出科目看，前11个月，教育支出37856亿元，同比增长4.4%；科学技术支出8892 亿元，同比增长7.9%；社会保障和就业支出40721亿元，同比增长8.1%；卫生健康支出18687亿元，同 比增长4.7%；节能环保支出4720亿元，同比增长6.6%。 其中，前11个月，全国税收收入164814亿元，同比增长1.8%；非税收入35702亿元，同比下降 3 ...