南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 "计算机时代随处可见，唯独在生产率的统计数据中不见踪影。"1987年，诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特· 索洛（Robert Solow）如是感慨。 历史不会简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚，这一次的主角是人工智能。索洛的文章发表近40年后，如 今人们对AI泡沫的担忧挥之不去。 德国万亿欧元资产管理机构DWS全球研究主管Johannes Mueller近日在2025外滩年会上接受21世纪经济 报道记者独家专访时表示，技术革命在长期内往往被低估，而在短期内则被高估。人们目前可能稍微高 估了人工智能带来的益处。从长远来看，考虑到劳动力市场和人口结构的变化，人工智能将有利于全球 经济。 历史已经无数次证明，即使是最具变革性的技术，也必须等到配套的基础设施、技能和产品发展起来 后，才能最大限度地发挥效用，而这可能是一个漫长的过程。 对于投资者而言，警钟已然敲响。过早播下的种子等不到收获，仓促建起的高塔难抵风雨。每一次技术 狂欢的背后，都是对耐心的考验。对泡沫保持敬畏，方能在狂热中全身而退。 人工智能短期高估、长期低估 《 21 世纪》： AI 是推动多国股市狂欢的重要力量，你更倾向 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, plans to establish a multi-year fiscal target to allow for more flexible spending, signaling a shift away from strict fiscal discipline amid rising public debt and economic challenges [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Changes - Takaichi will abandon the annual primary balance surplus target, which previously aimed to measure fiscal health without relying on debt, in favor of a multi-year approach [1][2] - Japan's public debt is now twice its economic size, the highest among major economies, raising concerns about the financing costs due to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and reduced government bond purchases [2] Group 2: Economic Stimulus Measures - The government is drafting an economic strategy focused on supporting local governments and small businesses affected by rising prices, with a potential budget exceeding 13.9 trillion yen (approximately 641.72 billion RMB) for the 2024 fiscal year [2][3] - Takaichi's economic strategy will prioritize living security, crisis management investments, and strengthening defense and diplomatic capabilities [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's announcement of stimulus policies, the Nikkei 225 index has seen significant gains, with U.S. capital inflows reaching the highest levels since "Abenomics" [4] - However, concerns have been raised about the overheating of Japanese tech stocks, which have outperformed U.S. tech giants in valuation without corresponding profit support, indicating potential market corrections [4][5]

日本首相高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）周一表示，她将推动制定一项涵盖数年的新财政目标，以允许更 灵活的支出安排，这实质上弱化了日本此前承诺的财政整顿政策。 这位新任首相还再次呼吁日本央行放缓加息步伐，尽管有迹象显示，多数央行政策制定者更倾向于尽早 重启货币紧缩。 为了重振经济增长，高市早苗表示不排除未来下调日本消费税的可能性，这进一步强化了市场预期—— 她领导的政府将优先采取刺激经济增长的措施，而非解决日益恶化的公共财政问题。 政府对扩张性政策的侧重，可能会让日本央行的决策变得复杂——日本央行此前因美国关税上调对经济 影响的不确定性，暂停了加息周期，如今需决定何时重启。 "我希望日本央行制定适当的货币政策，以稳定且可持续的方式实现2%通胀目标，而这一通胀应源于薪 资增长，而非成本推动因素，"高市早苗说，同时敦促日本央行配合政府刺激需求的努力。 路透社看到的高市早苗经济刺激计划草案大纲也提到，货币政策聚焦实现强劲经济增长"极为重要"。 日本央行面临的政治压力升温 日本央行上月维持利率不变，但周一公布的会议意见摘要显示，委员会内部支持近期加息的呼声日益高 涨。 该央行下一次利率审议会议将于12月18日至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a shift in fiscal policy, moving away from annual assessments of the primary fiscal surplus target, aiming for a balanced budget over several years instead [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Changes - Takaichi's comments suggest a commitment to increasing government spending, reminiscent of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" approach, which dominated Japanese politics for nearly a decade [1] - The government aims to achieve nominal GDP growth exceeding Japan's national debt yield while reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, although specific strategies to achieve these goals were not detailed [1][2] - Takaichi emphasized the need for a long-term perspective in financial management, shifting focus from achieving annual fiscal balance [2] Group 2: Economic Advisory Changes - Recent appointments to Takaichi's economic advisory group reflect a return to the loose monetary and fiscal policy stance associated with "Abenomics," including the inclusion of former Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa [5] - The newly formed Growth Strategy Committee includes inflation advocates and economists known for promoting expansionary policies, indicating a potential shift in economic strategy [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - Takaichi's fiscal policy is described as "responsible" yet expansionary, avoiding direct criticism of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, which may be a response to market concerns [6] - The scale of the economic stimulus package aimed at supporting the economy and households remains unspecified, but if it exceeds expectations, it could raise concerns about Japan's fiscal health and increase long-term bond yields [6] - Takaichi rejected accusations of "fiscal populism," asserting that her policies differ from irresponsible populist measures that rely on cash handouts for popularity [6]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is crucial for economic stability, especially in the current international context where political pressures can undermine effective monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is essential for implementing necessary and sometimes difficult decisions, as political systems tend to focus on short-term goals [1][14]. - The independence of central banks allows for a long-term perspective in monetary policy, which is vital for sustainable economic outcomes [14][15]. Group 2: Israel's Economic Transformation - Israel's economic success in the 1990s was attributed to a comprehensive strategy that included stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2][12]. - The influx of highly skilled immigrants and improved geopolitical conditions contributed to Israel's transformation into a "startup nation," with high-tech exports accounting for over half of its total exports [2][12]. Group 3: Global Economic Governance - The shift from globalization to fragmentation is concerning, as countries are increasingly competing rather than cooperating, which can lead to unhealthy economic practices [6][8]. - China is recognized as a vital player in the global economy and should take on a larger role in global governance, responding to traditional systems' inadequacies [3][8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets Representation - Emerging markets have shown resilience and performed better than developed countries in recent years, but their representation in international institutions like the IMF does not reflect their economic weight [7][8]. - There is a growing recognition of the need to enhance the representation of emerging markets in global governance structures [7]. Group 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The accumulation of public debt is a long-term issue resulting from persistent budget and current account deficits, which can lead to systemic risks [9][10]. - Responsible government behavior and the development of robust capital markets are essential to manage high debt levels and maintain economic stability [10]. Group 6: Lessons from Israel - The experience of Israel in achieving price stability and economic openness can serve as a model for other emerging or middle-income economies [14][15]. - Effective public communication and building public support for monetary policy are critical for central banks to maintain their independence and achieve economic stability [15].

Core Viewpoint - French and UK bonds are experiencing one of their best weekly performances this year, driven by a market risk-off sentiment due to concerns over the health of U.S. regional banks [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - French 10-year government bond yields have dropped by 16 basis points to 3.32%, the lowest level since August of last year, due to the postponement of President Macron's pension reform plan [1] - The borrowing premium of France relative to Germany has decreased by 5 basis points to 78 basis points, marking the largest contraction since June [1] - UK 10-year government bond yields fell by 18 basis points, dropping below 4.50% for the first time in three months, influenced by rising unemployment and expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Bank of England [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The postponement of the pension reform plan by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has mitigated immediate risks of government collapse and has garnered support from Socialist Party members [1] - The political crisis in France, which nearly led to early elections, has provided a temporary respite, although significant risks remain regarding budget consensus among divided lawmakers [2] - The UK is facing a budget proposal next month, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves indicating intentions to control spending within limited policy space [2] Group 3: Credit Rating Concerns - The political stability achieved by Lecornu may complicate France's path to fiscal consolidation, a key focus for credit rating agencies [3] - Moody's is set to release an assessment report next week, which could pose a challenge for France if pension reform setbacks lead to a downgrade [3] - Currently, France holds an average credit rating of AA, but a downgrade could force investors with rating restrictions to sell French bonds [3]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the 5th review of Ghana's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and reached a staff-level agreement, which is expected to boost confidence in Ghana's reform plans [1] - Moody's upgraded Ghana's credit rating from Caa2 to Caa1 with a stable outlook, reflecting improvements in public debt, fiscal discipline, and policy credibility [1] - The IMF's upcoming disbursement of $385 million will increase total spending under the $3 billion aid program to approximately $2 billion, indicating progress in macroeconomic stability and economic growth exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - Ghana's treasury bills saw a subscription rate exceeding 23% in the latest auction, with slight increases in yields for 91-day and 364-day treasury bills, indicating growing investor interest in cedi-denominated assets [2] - The IMF projects Ghana's economic growth rate to reach 4.8% next year, driven by strong performance in the services and agriculture sectors, while inflation is expected to remain within single-digit targets [2] - Structural reforms and fiscal measures are crucial for Ghana to maintain economic momentum post-IMF program, with potential for further rating upgrades in 2026 if fiscal discipline and debt restructuring are successfully managed [2]

Core Insights - The IMF President Kristalina Georgieva stated that the impact of tariffs on the global economy has not been as severe as previously feared, and the effects on the U.S. have diminished [1] - She emphasized that the global economy is showing resilience, but structural challenges remain significant [1] - Georgieva highlighted the current severe imbalances in the global economy, with a primary policy focus on preventing financial instability [1] Fiscal Policy - Certain G7 countries, including the U.S., Japan, France, and Italy, face more serious fiscal issues and need to strengthen fiscal consolidation [1] - Countries with excessive deficits are urged to reduce fiscal deficits and encourage private savings [1] - In contrast, Canada and Germany are noted to have greater fiscal space and more policy flexibility [1] Technological Transformation - Georgieva acknowledged the positive potential of artificial intelligence (AI), predicting that the AI investment boom could contribute 0.1% to 0.8% to global growth and enhance productivity [1] - However, she warned that AI could exacerbate disparities between countries, potentially widening the gap between developed and developing economies [1] Inclusive Growth - It is essential for countries to promote innovation while ensuring that the benefits of growth are more inclusive [2] - Maintaining macroeconomic stability through sound fiscal and financial policies is crucial [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must maintain a loose monetary policy and proceed with interest rate hikes very gradually due to global trade uncertainties impacting economic outlook [2][3] Economic Performance - Japan's economy has performed better than expected this year, supported by strong consumption and exports, along with a trade agreement with the United States that alleviated some uncertainties [2] - The BOJ raised the key interest rate to 0.5% in January, citing proximity to achieving the 2% inflation target, but the need for caution remains due to potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of wage growth and whether consumption can stabilize inflation near the BOJ's 2% target [2] - The BOJ's policy committee is increasingly concerned about rising inflation pressures, as indicated by two members proposing an interest rate hike in September, although it was not approved [3] Political Uncertainty - Political instability is exacerbating risks to Japan's fragile economy, highlighted by the recent setbacks faced by the ruling party's new leader in her bid to become Japan's first female prime minister [4] - The ruling party's loss in the July Senate elections, driven by public dissatisfaction with rising inflation, has led to proposals from both ruling and opposition parties to increase spending to alleviate economic pressures [4] Fiscal Policy Recommendations - Japan must develop a fiscal consolidation plan given its substantial public debt, ensuring that all spending measures are temporary and targeted at low-income households [4] - Proposals such as VAT reductions or blanket subsidies are deemed unfavorable at this stage, as they would significantly increase the deficit burden [4]

Core Points - French Prime Minister Le Maire has suspended a controversial pension reform, providing temporary relief to the market and avoiding a potential government collapse [2][3] - The proposed reform aimed to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, which is significantly lower than other European countries [4] - The suspension of the pension reform is expected to cost €400 million (approximately $465 million) in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027, which will need to be offset by savings [4][5] Group 1: Pension Reform - The pension reform was a key part of President Macron's political legacy, but its suspension indicates a step back from necessary structural reforms [4] - The resistance to changing the retirement age and contribution requirements is deeply rooted in French society, leading to protests and strikes [4] - Analysts suggest that the permanent suspension of the pension reform could lead to an annual cost of €20 billion by 2035, increasing public debt significantly [5] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026, down from an expected 5.5% this year [7] - Despite the goal of fiscal consolidation, the government has not proposed austerity measures and hinted at a one-time special levy on large wealth [7] - UBS analysts predict that France's debt-to-GDP ratio will worsen by 2-3 percentage points annually, remaining above 5% for the deficit in 2026 [7]