债 券 研 究 2025 年 11 月 23 日 利率比价关系视角，债市怎么看？ 报 告 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 策 略 风险提示：政策发力超预期，地产销售超预期，海外环境变化超预期 证 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com ⚫ 合理的利率比价关系是货币政策传导的必要条件，当前政策利率向金融市场和实体经济 传导的有效性已经明显改善，但向债券收益率传导的环节仍有改善空间。理论上，不同类 型的利率取决于对应的期限水平、信用风险、流动性溢价等因素。但根本的，利率本质上 映射了社会投资回报水平，与经济基本面对应。因此，不同类型的利率也应当存在合理的 比价关系，不应长期大幅偏离。从相关性的视角观察政策利率向资金利率、以及资金利率 向债券收益率和信贷利率的传导，可以发现，2025 ...

Summary of the PBoC's Monetary Policy Report for 25Q3 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - **Entity**: People's Bank of China (PBoC) Key Points and Arguments 1. Limited New Information on Cyclical Policies - The PBoC's Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for 25Q3 indicates limited new information regarding near-term monetary policies - The report maintains a "moderately loose" tone, pledging to keep social financing conditions loose and liquidity ample - Growth is on track to meet the "around 5%" target for the year, with no expected cuts to policy rates or RRR in the remaining months of 2025 [5][4][6] 2. Inflation Outlook - The PBoC has become cautiously optimistic about the inflation outlook, noting "improvement in prices" compared to previous assessments - The report emphasizes the importance of a "reasonable rebound of prices" and acknowledges support from a national unified market and consumption [6][4][7] 3. Aggregate Financial Statistics - The PBoC discussed a structural shift in China's aggregate financial statistics, indicating that bank loans may not be the best measure of financing as the system evolves - The report highlights that the property sector's downturn has kept loan numbers low, suggesting that Total Social Financing (TSF) and monetary aggregates are better gauges of financial health [7][4][8] 4. Interest Rate System Focus - The PBoC has made minor adjustments to its policy rate system, including changes to the operations of the 14-Day Reverse Repo - The report outlines the PBoC's focus on various interest rate gaps as indicators of policy transmission efficiency, including the gap between policy rates and market rates, and the net interest margin (NIM) [8][9][10] 5. Exchange Rate Flexibility - The wording in the MPR regarding exchange rate flexibility has changed, indicating a focus on maintaining flexibility and preventing overcorrection risks - Despite a strong consensus for RMB appreciation, the report suggests that the upcoming CEWC will provide more significant insights into future currency policies [14][15][4] 6. Future Policy Expectations - The report anticipates a potential 20 basis points cut in policy rates in 2026E to support the property sector, with a slower pace of loan rate reductions observed in 25Q3 - The average corporate loan rates dropped by 8 basis points to 3.14% in September compared to June, while mortgage rates remained unchanged at 3.06% [11][4][12] Additional Important Insights - The PBoC's focus on the interest rate system and its implications for financial stability are critical, especially with the NIM at an all-time low of 1.42% - The report suggests that the demand side remains a key concern for future economic performance, particularly in the context of medium-to-long term inflation concerns [11][6][4]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report indicates strong confidence in the domestic economic situation, a cautiously optimistic view on price recovery, and emphasizes the need for "cross-cycle" adjustments and improved regulatory frameworks [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The report expresses a strong belief that the national economy is progressing steadily, with sufficient support to achieve the annual growth target. Key supporting factors include ample supply-side capacity, policies promoting consumption, and proactive macroeconomic policies [1]. - Compared to the second-quarter report, the current report shows increased confidence in meeting the established growth targets for the year [1]. Price Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase, with core CPI growth expanding for six consecutive months, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising for the first time this year, indicating a moderate price recovery [2]. - The report suggests that promoting reasonable price recovery requires coordinated macroeconomic policies, with expectations for stable price increases driven by project investments and enhanced consumption policies in the coming year [2]. Monetary Policy Direction - The report reintroduces the concept of "cross-cycle" adjustments in monetary policy, indicating a shift from focusing solely on short-term measures to a more comprehensive approach that considers both short-term and long-term economic conditions [2]. - The emphasis is on maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through the use of various tools, reflecting a balanced approach to monetary policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Financial Growth - The report highlights the need for reasonable growth in financial totals to support the construction of a modern industrial system and the development of strategic emerging industries [3]. - It acknowledges that a natural decline in the growth rate of financial totals is expected as the economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3]. Interest Rate Structure - The report discusses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to facilitate effective monetary policy transmission, addressing mismatches in interest rates across different types [4]. - Future monetary policy will focus on standardizing interest rate relationships to ensure that market benchmark rates fluctuate around policy rates, thereby maintaining a positive yield curve and supporting banks' net interest margins [4].

"十五五"期间，货币政策将兼顾总量和结构，处理好短期和中长期的关系，更加关注"金融总量"，为经 济增长和结构转型做好有力支撑。 本报评论员 胡光旗 近日，央行发布三季度货币政策执行报告（简称《报告》）。和二季度货币政策执行报告相比，本次报 告的变化主要集中在对国内经济形势有较强信心、对物价回升保持谨慎乐观态度、重提"跨周期"调节并 完善调控框架、通过利率比价的论述着力强调疏通货币政策传导效能以及保证金融总量合理增长几个方 面。 《报告》对宏观经济形势信心较强。《报告》对目前国内经济总形势的判断是"国民经济稳中有进，实 现全年预期目标有基础有支撑。"支撑这个较为积极的判断，央行给出供给端产能充足、以旧换新政策 促使消费潜力持续释放以及宏观政策积极有为三个支撑因素。并且相对于二季度报告中"下半年保持稳 定增长有坚实支撑"的表述，本次《报告》对今年完成既定增长目标信心更强。并且考虑到美国关税政 策对全球贸易形势的冲击还将持续，需依托国内大循环的力量推动经济增长，其着力点就是消费。 物价方面，10月CPI同比转涨，核心CPI同比涨幅连续六个月扩大，PPI环比年内首次上涨，物价温和回 升。《报告》认为，自二季度规范部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent slowdown in deposit growth is interpreted as a shift of funds from deposits to the stock market, influenced by changes in interest rates and their relationships, as explained in the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) third-quarter monetary policy report [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The PBOC emphasizes that interest rates are essentially the return on funds, and various financial instruments exhibit different characteristics, leading to a diverse range of interest rates and a specific pricing relationship [2][3]. - The report highlights that in a market-oriented interest rate system, changes in the return rates of different assets lead to a reallocation of funds towards higher returns, impacting banking deposits, loans, bonds, stocks, and insurance markets [2][6]. - The PBOC notes that maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship is crucial for effective monetary policy transmission, which helps in adjusting the supply and demand of funds and resource allocation [6][9]. Group 2: Asset Allocation and Market Behavior - Experts argue that the notion of deposits "moving" is misleading; rather, it reflects a redistribution of deposits among different entities, with overall deposit levels remaining relatively stable [2][3]. - The report indicates that the recent increase in non-bank deposits and the slowdown in household deposits are linked to prior regulations on interbank demand deposit rates, leading to a preference for term deposits and interbank certificates [4][6]. - The PBOC's report also discusses the importance of maintaining a reasonable yield spread between different types of deposits and loans, as well as between various financial products, to ensure efficient financial resource allocation [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system to support high-quality economic development, focusing on the balance of short-term and long-term goals, the health of the financial sector, and internal and external relationships [1][2]. Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank will adopt a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools such as reverse repos and MLF operations to optimize liquidity and support key sectors [2][3]. - There is an expectation for a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, with potential further reductions in the following year [2]. Interest Rate and Financing Costs - The monetary policy will focus on price-type regulation of policy interest rates to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, which is crucial for stimulating consumption and investment [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating improved transmission of monetary policy [3]. Communication and Coordination - Enhanced communication with the market is vital for stabilizing expectations and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, with more frequent updates and guidance from the central bank [4]. - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to strengthen, with a focus on supporting major projects through combined efforts of fiscal capital and monetary financing tools [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced adjustments to the evaluation method for primary dealers in the open market, aiming to enhance the transmission of monetary policy and adapt to the evolving financial market [1][2]. Group 1: Evaluation Method Adjustments - The adjustment of the primary dealer evaluation is a crucial part of the transformation of the monetary policy framework, with the PBOC first establishing primary dealers in 1996 and implementing a regular evaluation mechanism in 2004 [2]. - The new evaluation indicators have been significantly streamlined, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy transmission and bond market making, which includes assessing the volume, price, and coverage of funds lent by institutions [2][3]. - The evaluation method now categorizes different types of institutions for assessment, promoting diversity among primary dealers and enhancing their roles in supporting the central bank's macroeconomic control and policy transmission [3]. Group 2: Compliance and Transition Period - The new evaluation method underscores the importance of compliance, stating that institutions engaging in improper conduct during the evaluation period will have their dealer qualifications suspended [3]. - A transition period has been established, with the list of primary dealers remaining unchanged for the 2025 fiscal year, allowing institutions time to adapt to the new evaluation criteria [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced adjustments to the evaluation method for primary dealers in the open market, effective from 2025, with the current list of primary dealers remaining unchanged for that year [1][2]. Group 1: Evaluation Method Adjustments - The adjustment of the primary dealer evaluation is a crucial part of the transformation of the monetary policy framework [1]. - The evaluation indicators have been updated to better serve the monetary policy framework transformation, now categorized into four main categories with seven items, significantly reducing the number of indicators [1][2]. - The new evaluation emphasizes the importance of monetary policy transmission and bond market making, enhancing the role of primary dealers in financial intermediation [1][2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Compliance - The evaluation will assess the performance of institutions in stabilizing the market during periods of financial tension, focusing on the volume, price, and coverage of funds [1]. - The assessment of bond market making will include the institutions' quoting and transaction performance, particularly during periods of bond market volatility [2]. - Institutions that engage in improper conduct during the evaluation period will face suspension of their dealer qualifications, reinforcing compliance and discipline among primary dealers [2]. Group 3: Diversification and Institutional Roles - The revised evaluation method will implement differentiated assessments for various types of institutions, promoting diversity among primary dealers [2]. - This change aims to enhance the effectiveness of different types of institutions in supporting the central bank's macroeconomic regulation, policy transmission, and tool innovation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced adjustments to the evaluation criteria for primary dealers in the open market, emphasizing the importance of stability during market fluctuations and enhancing the transmission of monetary policy [1][2][7]. Group 1: Evaluation Criteria Adjustments - The revised evaluation criteria will be implemented starting in 2025, with the list of primary dealers remaining unchanged for that year [1][7]. - The new criteria simplify the evaluation indicators from seven to four dimensions: "monetary market transmission," "bond market making," "research and innovation," and "compliance and sound operation" [6][7]. - New indicators focus on performance during periods of market tension, highlighting the need for primary dealers to maintain stability in the bond market [2][6]. Group 2: Role of Primary Dealers - Primary dealers are defined as financial institutions that can directly engage in open market operations with the PBOC, playing a crucial role in the transmission of monetary policy [2][5]. - Being designated as a primary dealer signifies both recognition from the PBOC and the responsibility to facilitate monetary policy transmission and market stability [3][4]. - The PBOC's selection of primary dealers is based on their market influence and capability, ensuring effective communication and liquidity support [4][5]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Institutions - The adjustments in evaluation criteria are expected to enhance the scientific and fair assessment of various types of institutions, promoting diversity among primary dealers [7]. - Financial institutions that achieve primary dealer status can directly participate in PBOC operations, which is seen as a mark of credibility and market influence [3][5]. - The new evaluation framework reflects the PBOC's increased sensitivity to market fluctuations and the importance of risk management among financial institutions [6][7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the evaluation method for primary dealers in the open market operations, aiming to adapt to the transformation of the monetary policy operation framework and the development of the financial market [1] - The revised evaluation method will emphasize the classification of institutions and strengthen the linkage with the assessment of bond market makers [1] - The new evaluation method will be implemented starting in 2025, while the list of primary dealers for the year 2025 will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - Primary dealers that engage in inappropriate behavior during the evaluation period will be suspended from participating in open market operations, with severe cases leading to the cancellation of their primary dealer status in the following year [1]