2025.08. 25 本文字数：1660，阅读时长大约3分钟 同时，当前数字技术变革等，正在改变货币政策传导机制和场景。如数字技术不断拓宽信用货币使用 范围和传导范式，货币政策的传导速率、时空边界都较过往出现复杂而彻底的改变，这意味着美联储 需基于数字技术的流变特征来调整其货币政策的适应性支持框架。又如去中心化的稳定币等，正在改 变货币的传导媒介和生态，以美元为支撑的稳定币，将抬高美联储跟踪和分析货币在经济社会演进路 径的成本，增加了货币政策对经济社会敏感适应能力的难度。 美联储降息之门正缓缓开启。 作者 | 一财评论员 而且，基于美元的稳定币使部分货币政策功能，比如币值稳定的部分功能正在从美联储向美国财政部 转移，这越发侵蚀美联储对宏观金融全局的把控能力，及决策难度，从而击穿市场对央行货币政策独 立性的传统信仰，毕竟信用货币的价值受国债发行部门的影响更多。 这次美联储货币政策新框架调整，继续保留传统就业与通胀目标的互补性假设前提，这意味着美联储 货币政策新框架在设计机制上，无法割舍掉其赋予委员会相对灵活的自由裁量空间，如委员会打算在 每年1月的年度组织会议上审查这些原则并酌情进行调整等。 在最新的杰克逊霍 ...

更多消息，持续更新中 15日，中国央行发布2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告。 其中提出，进一步完善利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市 场利率定价自律机制作用，持续强化利率政策的执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，推动社会综合融资成 本下降。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转，把握好金融支持实体经济和保持 自身健康性的平衡。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，用好结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科 技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 下阶段，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实 施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 标相匹配，持续营造适宜的金融环境。把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保 持在合理水平。 更多消息，持续更新中…… 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况 或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dynamics in the interbank market reflect a complex interplay of liquidity management and market stability, with the central bank actively engaging in reverse repurchase operations to manage funds effectively [1][2][3] Group 1: Liquidity Management - The central bank has demonstrated enhanced precision in liquidity management, achieving a net injection of 236.5 billion yuan in July, a decrease of 41.95 billion yuan from the previous month [2] - Short-term reverse repos saw a net injection of 188 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in the intensity of liquidity provision [2] - The use of various policy tools, including medium-term lending facilities and buyout reverse repos, reflects the flexibility in the central bank's approach to meet diverse market funding needs [2] Group 2: Market Price Stability - Interbank market interest rates are characterized by a "low and stable" trend, with the weighted average rate of DR007 dropping to 1.4251%, remaining above the policy rate [3] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) is reported at 1.3144%, while the 7-day rate stands at 1.4356%, indicating stable pricing in the market [3] - Despite a supportive funding environment, there are indications of potential volatility, with seasonal trends favoring a loosening of liquidity, although the overall easing stance remains unchanged [3]

Core Insights - The rapid development of stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies with "pegged" attributes, is reshaping the financial landscape, with a projected global market value exceeding $250 billion by mid-2025 [2][3] Group 1: Impact on Financial Systems - Stablecoins are expected to revolutionize cross-border payment and settlement systems, offering advantages such as convenience and lower costs, which could challenge traditional banking and payment institutions [2] - The rise of stablecoins may disrupt the monetary policy transmission mechanism and financial stability by causing shifts in bank deposits and altering money velocity [3] Group 2: International Monetary Dynamics - The dominance of stablecoins, primarily pegged to the US dollar, reinforces dollar hegemony, but increased innovation in non-dollar stablecoins could challenge this status and reshape international currency competition [3] Group 3: Financial Innovation - Stablecoins are pivotal in the growth of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), lowering barriers for user participation and facilitating the digital transformation of tangible assets [3] Group 4: Strategic Responses - China is encouraged to integrate digital yuan with stablecoin technology to enhance the internationalization of the yuan, exploring applications in cross-border trade and investment [5] - Traditional financial institutions should upgrade and innovate their services in response to the pressures from stablecoins, with regulatory support to foster the development of new financial products [5][6] - There is a need for a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins to ensure their development is compliant and to mitigate financial risks, alongside international cooperation on regulatory standards [6]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Following the decision, traders maintained their bets on ECB rates, anticipating a further rate cut of 22 basis points by 2025 [1] - The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes at the medium-term target of 2%, with monetary policy decisions to be made based on data assessments [1] Interest Rate Policy - The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2] Asset Purchase Programs - The Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are being reduced at a steady and predictable pace, with no reinvestment of principal from maturing securities [3] - The ECB is prepared to adjust all policy tools to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and maintain the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission [3] - The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to address unreasonable and chaotic market dynamics that threaten effective monetary policy transmission across Eurozone countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the medium-term target of 2% and to maintain smooth functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council is ready to take necessary actions to achieve its inflation target [1] - The focus is on ensuring that the monetary policy transmission mechanism operates effectively [1]

Global Macro - The core conflict between Trump and Powell stems from differing monetary policy ideologies, with Trump advocating for low interest rates while Powell emphasizes data-driven decisions based on economic indicators and inflation targets [1][6][12] - The recent escalation in their dispute has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly as Trump has suggested potential legal grounds for dismissing Powell, which could set a dangerous precedent for political interference in central bank operations [1][12][54] - Despite Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt burdens, the report argues that such actions may lead to increased long-term interest rates if the market perceives risks to inflation or the Fed's independence [2][13][28] Trump-Powell Dispute - The dispute has evolved from conceptual criticisms to operational threats, with Trump actively seeking to find justification for Powell's dismissal based on the Federal Reserve's renovation project cost overruns [7][12] - Trump's administration has faced multiple legal and political constraints in attempting to dismiss Powell, including the requirement for "just cause" under the Federal Reserve Act, which has never been successfully invoked [33][34] - The potential for a "demotion strategy" to undermine Powell's influence is considered unlikely to succeed, as Powell's term extends until May 2026, and he has demonstrated a commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence [38][39][50] Interest Rate Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely refrain from immediate rate cuts, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2025, potentially starting in the fourth quarter [2][20] - Current financial conditions indicate that the policy interest rate is not excessively tight, and the market's response to tariff uncertainties has stabilized, suggesting a return to relatively loose liquidity conditions [21][20] - Trump's claims regarding potential savings from interest rate cuts are questioned, as the long-term cost of financing could outweigh short-term benefits if market confidence in the Fed's independence is undermined [28][34] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining institutional credibility, which has been built over decades of professional operation and crisis management [54] - Any attempts to weaken this independence could lead to systemic risks that exceed expectations, impacting the stability of the financial system and the broader economy [54] - The report emphasizes that the Fed's independence is not merely a technical arrangement but a fundamental safeguard for financial stability and economic prosperity [54]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, for two consecutive months, aligning with market expectations due to unchanged policy rates since May [1] Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The 1-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stability in the current monetary policy environment [1] - Analysts suggest that the unchanged LPR is strategic, allowing for better alignment with upcoming counter-cyclical measures aimed at supporting the real economy and stabilizing the banking system [1][2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Recent macroeconomic data indicates that China's economic growth rate and internal momentum in Q2 exceeded market expectations, providing a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - There is an expectation of further interest rate cuts in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external uncertainties, with potential impacts on LPR adjustments [2]

Group 1 - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and closely monitor the transmission of previously implemented policies and their actual effects [1] - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is crucial for influencing financial institutions' behavior and ultimately adjusting economic variables [1][2] - The central bank has cumulatively reduced the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and policy interest rates 9 times since 2020, highlighting the importance of a smooth transmission mechanism [2] Group 2 - A smooth transmission mechanism supports the development of the real economy by ensuring that released liquidity reaches it directly rather than remaining in the financial system [2] - Effective transmission reduces potential risks within the financial system by preventing funds from being trapped and promoting reasonable returns [3] - A well-functioning transmission mechanism enhances the flexibility and sustainability of monetary policy by maximizing the effectiveness of policy tools [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of deposit rate adjustments on banks, indicating that the adjustments have a limited impact on financial outflows [4][7] - The establishment of a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism aims to align deposit rates with market rates, thereby reducing banks' funding costs and facilitating lower loan rates [14][17] - The report highlights a significant shift in deposit structures due to regulatory changes, with a notable migration of deposits from large banks to smaller banks and non-bank financial institutions [6][37] Summary by Sections 1. Reasons for Deposit Rate Adjustments - The adjustments are aimed at promoting interest rate marketization and improving policy transmission, breaking the rigid link between deposit rates and benchmark rates [4][14] - The adjustments are expected to lower banks' funding costs, which constitute over 70% of their liabilities, thereby creating room for loan rate reductions [17][18] 2. Review of Past Adjustments - Historical adjustments include the reduction of structured deposits from CNY 15.4 trillion to zero between 2019 and 2020, and the optimization of deposit rate ceilings in June 2021 [5][22] - The establishment of a market-oriented adjustment mechanism in April 2022 has led to multiple rounds of deposit rate reductions, with long-term deposit rates decreasing more than short-term rates [23][24] 3. Market Impact Review - The report notes that during the initial adjustment phases, there was a significant outflow of structured deposits to wealth management and insurance products [6][37] - The adjustments have generally resulted in a shift of deposits from large banks to smaller banks, as well as a migration towards wealth management and insurance products [6][37] 4. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a significant volume of maturing fixed-term deposits in the third quarter, with potential outflows to non-bank institutions [7] - It suggests focusing on banks that may benefit from reduced funding costs and improved net interest margins, highlighting specific banks such as Bank of Communications and Chongqing Bank as potential investment targets [7]