【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.7.14 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 铝锭：淡季小幅累库 铝价区间整理 Ø 逻辑：上周铝价偏强震荡。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。 美联储理事沃勒周四重申了本月降息的可能性，投资者预计年底前美联储将降息50个基点。基本面来看，据SMM数据， 截至上周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万吨/年，运行总产能8857万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周下 调0.05个百分点至79.92%，其中山东、广西地区出现部分企业检修，运行产能有所下滑。海外消息几内亚要求今后50% 的铝土矿出口必须由悬挂几内亚国旗的船舶运输，政府已成立本国航运公司专门负责铝土矿运输。2025年截至目前，几 内亚铝土矿出口同比增长37%。截至6月底氧化铝企业厂内库存累库8.1万吨。需求端高温淡季、铝价高企、利润空间不 足、下游需求疲软等因素影响下，上周铝加工行业开工环比上周再度下降0.1个百分点至58.6%。据SMM统计，7月14 日国内主流消费地电解 ...

随着英镑兑美元汇率迈向两年来最长的连跌纪录，期权交易员正转为看空英镑。 在英国央行行长贝利周一暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度快于预期，可能会进行更大幅度的降息后，交易员们增加了对英国央行降息的 押注。货币市场目前定价年底前将有58个基点的降息，而上周五时约为51个基点。 本周，所有人的目光都将聚焦于一系列关键数据，包括来自英国和美国的通胀报告，以及英国的劳动力数据。 周一，英镑兑美元一度下跌0.3%，至三周低点1.3452美元。若收盘走低，将标志着连续第七个交易日下跌，是自2023年7月以来最长 的一次。 早些时候的数据显示，英国经济在5月份意外萎缩0.1%，凸显出经济增长面临的下行风险。这进一步强化了市场预期：除非6月通胀数 据出现意外表现，否则英国央行将在8月降息。 Monex分析师在一份报告中指出，受上周五公布的疲弱GDP数据影响，英镑可能面临进一步的下跌压力。分析师表示，稳定的通胀可 能会在短期内为英镑提供一些支撑。但从中期来看，财政紧缩、疲软的劳动力市场数据以及月度GDP的收缩，都预示着英镑仍将面临 持续压力。 衡量看涨和看跌期权需求差异的一个月期风险逆转指标目前正反映出自2月份以来最负面的前景，该指标 ...

英国央行行长释放可能加大降息力度的信号，加剧了市场对英国货币政策的鸽派预期，导致英镑承压。 周一，英国央行行长贝利暗示，如果就业市场恶化速度快于预期，央行可能会进行更大幅度的降息。此番言论迅速在市场引发反响，交易员增加 了对英国央行放宽政策的押注。货币市场目前预计英国央行在年底前将累计降息58个基点，高于上周五约51个基点的预期。 消息公布后，英镑兑美元汇率一度下跌0.3%，至三周低点1.348美元。若当日收盘下跌，将标志着英镑连续七个交易日走低，是自2023年7月以来 最长的连跌纪录。 多重因素施压英镑，期权市场看跌情绪升温 贝利的表态直接改变了市场的利率预期。货币市场目前认为，英国央行在下一次会议上降息25个基点的可能性高达80%。这一鸽派立场与美联储 形成鲜明反差，市场普遍预计美联储至少在9月前将维持利率不变。政策预期的分化正对英镑构成压力。 英镑的疲软前景同样反映在期权市场。一项衡量看涨期权与看跌期权需求的指标"一个月风险逆转"（One-month risk reversals），已跌至今年2月以 来的最低点，显示市场对英镑的看跌情绪达到近五个月高位。该指标的时间跨度覆盖了下一次英国央行和美联储的议息 ...

金十数据7月14日讯，美国总统特朗普在俄乌问题上对俄罗斯总统普京表示不满，投资者正在等待特朗 普周一晚些时候就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明"的进一步细节，油价因此上涨。布伦特原油和WTI原油期 货均上涨0.5%。荷兰国际分析师表示："特朗普有可能宣布对俄罗斯实施更多制裁，如果制裁针对俄罗 斯能源，这可能会极大地改变石油前景。" 然而，由于贸易紧张局势加剧，价格涨幅受到限制，美国最 新的关税威胁给能源需求前景蒙上了阴影。 WTI原油 布伦特原油 荷兰国际：特朗普对俄"重大声明"若涉及能源制裁 将大幅改变油市前景 ...

美国提高对欧盟贸易关税的威胁正迫使德国展开紧急外交应对。 德国总理弗里德里希·默茨（Friedrich Merz）警告，如果不能在未来几周内与美国达成谈判解决方案， 特朗普威胁征收的30%关税将对德国出口商造成"核心打击"。 综合央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥 和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。作为回应，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间13日表示，将把对美 国关税的反制措施暂停期延长至8月初。 默茨在周日接受媒体采访时表示，如果美国真的实施这一高额关税，德国政府可能需要推迟部分经济政 策计划。这一潜在关税将"笼罩一切，并且重创德国的出口行业"。 针对德国是否支持对美国采取反制措施的问题，默茨明确表示： 是的，但不会在8月1日之前。 默茨透露，除了周五与特朗普通话外，他还在周末与法国总统马克龙和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩就此事 进行了深入讨论。 德国作为欧洲最大的制造业出口国，对美国市场的依赖度极高，尤其是在汽车、机械和化工等关键行 业。特朗普的关税威胁可能会进一步打击已经面临挑战的德国经济，并可能迫使柏林重新评估其经济政 策。 欧美贸易紧张局势进入关键 ...

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：国内累库继续 铝价区间调整 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间偏强运行。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和 其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。美联储理事沃勒周四 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is the necessity to transform the consensus reached by the two heads of state into specific policies and actions to stabilize and improve bilateral relations [1][2] - The meeting is significant as it marks the first face-to-face contact at a high level since Trump returned to the White House, highlighting the importance of regular interactions to build a stable foundation for U.S.-China relations [2][3] - There is a strong possibility of a future meeting between President Trump and Chinese leaders, contingent on creating a favorable atmosphere and preparing for outcomes [3][4] Group 2 - The discussions emphasized the importance of maintaining open communication channels and exploring potential areas of cooperation while managing differences [5] - The frequency and timeliness of U.S.-China interactions are noted to be lacking compared to previous administrations, which does not align with the significance of the bilateral relationship [5] - The focus of the recent talks was not primarily on trade issues, despite ongoing tensions, indicating a broader agenda for cooperation beyond economic matters [4][5]

Group 1 - Gold prices in London hovered around $3,340, with spot gold briefly rising above this level despite a strengthening dollar, supported by escalating trade tensions [1] - The announcement of a 50% punitive tariff on Brazil by President Trump, effective August 1, has heightened concerns over global trade, leading to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The Federal Reserve's officials indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, with discussions of potential rate cuts in the fall [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a key support level at $3,310, and the need to close above this level for further upward movement [4] - The resistance levels to watch are between $3,343 and $3,345, with the market currently showing a short-term bullish trend [5]

Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with three gold stores reporting price increases. Chow Sang Sang's gold price increased by 5 yuan per gram, reaching 1004 yuan per gram, making it the highest-priced store. Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 35 yuan per gram between the highest and lowest stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands on July 11, 2025, show that Lao Miao Gold is priced at 999 yuan per gram (up 3), while other brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook remain unchanged at 998 yuan per gram. Lao Fengxiang is priced at 1002 yuan per gram (up 2), and the overall market shows a mix of price stability and slight increases [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices also experienced a rebound, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 yuan per gram, now priced at 551 yuan per gram. The article invites readers to inquire about other platinum prices for further updates [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 1.6 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands. The current gold recycling price is 760.30 yuan per gram, while brands like Cai Bai and Lao Fengxiang have higher recycling prices at 765.70 and 773.30 yuan per gram, respectively [2] International Gold Market - The spot gold price has shown an upward trend, closing at 3323.76 USD per ounce, with a 0.31% increase. As of the latest report, it is currently at 3341.88 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% rise. The increase is attributed to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [4] - The market anticipates a 65.8% probability of a rate cut in September and an 84.5% probability in October, influenced by inflation data and economic performance. Additionally, President Trump's announcement of tariffs on copper and Canadian imports has heightened global trade tensions, contributing to increased market uncertainty [4] - Overall, the outlook for spot gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing tariff uncertainties, suggesting that domestic gold prices are unlikely to see significant declines in the short term [4]

Group 1 - Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, 2025, indicating a continuation of his economic policies [1] - The announcement has led to a quick rise in the USD/CAD exchange rate, reaching a high of 1.3730, reflecting investor expectations of increased trade tensions [1] - Spot gold prices surged over $10 in early Asian trading, reaching around $3,336 per ounce due to the heightened trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted that gold prices managed to reclaim the Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297 after briefly falling below it, with the RSI showing a slight recovery [2] - Analyst Chad emphasized that gold needs to break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,323 to initiate a more significant rebound, targeting $3,346 [3] - If gold fails to break the 50-day SMA, it may face increased selling pressure and retest the Fibonacci support level at $3,297 [3] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold shows a bullish bias with resistance levels at $3,340, $3,350, and $3,365, while support levels are at $3,322, $3,311, and $3,302 [4] - The daily chart for EUR/USD indicates a bearish bias with resistance levels at 1.1691, 1.1726, and 1.1752, and support levels at 1.1658, 1.1685, and 1.1633 [5]