每周思考总第655期 技术面上，尚未触发底部买入信号。 伴随11月后市场风险偏好下降，原本的周期与科技的轮动 特征转变为了普跌，目前机构资金也尚未出现增量入场迹象，维持市场调整观点不变。 主板择时观点： 上周标题明确提示的再减仓至低仓位的信号精准规避本周市场大跌，A股资金面虽与 美国不直接关联但市场情绪趋同，短期谨慎市场情绪有待消化，建议维持 低仓位 耐心等待下一个企 稳信号。 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 观点简述： 上周市场大幅下跌，沪深300指数周涨幅-3.77%，上证综指周涨幅-3.90%，中证500指数周涨 幅-5.78%。上周观点中明确 标题 提示"A股减仓 " ，本周国内市场在基本面技术面消息面共振下如期 出现显著调整。 基本面上，短期消息面中期仍是基本面压制。 国内方面，消息面上虽有荷兰对安世行政令暂停 的部分利多，但单周美国AI科技企业的连续领跌依旧继续强化对A股风险偏好的压制，而国内10月经 济各项指标的再度走弱是市场调整的中期原因未变，本月长短期LPR利率均继续维持不下调也低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent simultaneous rise of the S&P 500 index and the VIX index indicates a potential asset bubble driven by AI, suggesting that the expansion process may still be in its early stages [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The occurrence of "price up, volatility up" is a hallmark of asset bubble formation, contrasting with the typical negative correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX [3][4]. - The current VIX index remains near its historical median, indicating that both the market and volatility have room for further upward movement [3][10]. - The report highlights that the primary risk in the current market is missing out on an upward trend rather than a significant downturn [3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Volatility - There is a notable increase in individual stock volatility, particularly among large tech stocks, with examples such as Meta's 11.3% drop on October 30, which was approximately 8.3 times its historical volatility [7]. - Amazon experienced a 9.6% increase on October 31, with its volatility being about 5.5 times its historical level [8]. - The frequency and magnitude of significant fluctuations in U.S. tech stocks have reached historical highs, surpassing even the dot-com bubble period [9]. Group 3: Bubble Stage Indicators - Despite the signs of a bubble, the VIX index is not at extreme levels, currently around 15, compared to over 40 during the late stages of the dot-com bubble [10]. - The realized volatility of the Nasdaq 100 index remains relatively controlled, significantly lower than the average of 93% during the peak of the internet bubble [13]. - These moderate indicators suggest that the current AI-driven bubble may have considerable room for further development before reaching a peak [14][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The report recommends that investors should not exit the market entirely but instead utilize asymmetric tools like options to participate in potential upward movements while managing risks [3][17]. - Suggested strategies include selling VIX put options to construct zero-cost S&P 500 call spreads and buying long-term S&P 500 up-variance to capture the ongoing expansion of the bubble [17].

在金融圈摸爬滚打多年，一个共识从未改变：真正的市场波动从不是突然降临，而是像暴风雨前的云层聚集，在一系列信号被忽视后逐渐成型。 近半年来，全球金融市场的异动愈发密集，巴菲特的持仓调整、美联储的政策转向、黄金市场的分歧震荡，再加上那个反复应验的18年周期规律。 这些看似孤立的事件串联起来，其实是市场在悄悄释放信号：别只盯着短期涨跌，该为潜在变化提前布局了。 巨头囤现、央行调整 聊市场动向，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔永远是绕不开的观察样本。 这位以价值投资封神的巨头，如今正用真金白银传递态度：现金储备已攀升至3817亿美元的历史峰值，连续五个季度未进行任何股票回购，反而开 启了长达12个季度的净卖出模式。 三年累计1840亿美元的减持规模，绝非普通的市场观望。 从行业规律来看，顶级投资机构的大规模现金囤积，核心逻辑往往是对当前市场估值的理性判断，并非缺乏投资标的，而是在潜在风险累积期，现 金的"安全垫"价值远高于短期收益诱惑。 普通投资者常被短期行情裹挟跟风追高，但成熟机构早已进入"过冬储粮"模式，这种行为反差本身就是最直接的市场暗示。 美联储的操作同样耐人寻味，银行储备金持续下行，从2.93万亿美元逐步降至2.8万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has implemented a historic interest rate hike, ending an eight-year negative interest rate policy, but the normalization of monetary policy remains a challenging task due to various uncertainties in the market [1][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Challenges - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0-0.1%, marking its first increase since 2007 [1]. - The former president of the Asian Development Bank, Takahiko Nakao, emphasizes the importance of a robust monetary policy normalization plan to avoid further depreciation of the yen and to facilitate the exit from ultra-loose monetary policies [1][6]. - Concerns about asset bubbles are resurfacing globally, with warnings about the risks associated with rapid increases in real estate and stock prices, particularly in Asian countries [1][10]. Financial Market Risks - The financial market is facing three major risks: 1. Increased government spending and expanding deficits leading to excessive national debt accumulation, particularly in the U.S. and Japan [2][10]. 2. Stock prices potentially being overvalued due to expectations of returns from the AI revolution [2][10]. 3. Risks associated with private debt, as non-bank institutions engage in extensive financial intermediation with insufficient regulation [2][10]. Historical Lessons - Reflecting on Japan's past, it is noted that during the 1985 Plaza Accord, the rapid appreciation of the yen led to overly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, contributing to the subsequent asset bubble [3][4]. - After the bubble burst in 1990, Japan's policy response was inadequate, failing to recognize the severe negative impacts of the bubble's collapse, which resulted in significant economic downturns [4]. Future Economic Potential - Japan possesses significant economic potential and should focus on converting technological advancements into economic benefits while increasing investment in research and development [5]. - The country has successfully emerged from deflation and should wisely utilize fiscal and monetary policies to support growth [5]. Regional Cooperation and Global Trade - In the context of rising global trade tensions, strengthening regional cooperation through agreements like RCEP and the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement is essential for mitigating unilateralism risks [7]. - The collaboration between Japan and China in technology and other sectors is seen as a way to address global challenges, particularly in the face of demographic changes and labor shortages [8][9].

Market Outlook - The current market is perceived to be in an "air bubble," particularly in capital expenditures, which is expected to burst naturally at some point, although it is not believed to be imminent [1] - The recent selloff in the market is described as mild, with potential for continued volatility, drawing comparisons to the Nasdaq's performance between October 1999 and March 2000, where significant selloffs occurred while the index doubled [2][3] Dollar and Stock Market Relationship - The dollar is expected to strengthen towards the end of the year, with positioning being relatively flat and some upside for yields amid uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve actions [5][6] - In the event of a significant stock market selloff (5-6%), a boost in the dollar is anticipated due to risk aversion and deleveraging, although this is not indicative of long-term confidence in the dollar [7] - Conversely, if the stock market bounces back, it is expected to lead to dollar support through inflows, as the stock market is likely to recover first in this bubble scenario [8] Fixed Income and Equity Market Dynamics - There is a belief that fixed income traders typically lead equity traders in the long term, but currently, equity traders appear to be leading the market [10][11] - The current cycle is characterized by equity traders being more influential, with mega-cap companies issuing debt that is being well-received by credit investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]

本文根据10月28日会员内部直播整理。本文为西京研究院发表的第871篇文章，赵建院长的第807篇原创文章。希望第一时间获取重头报告，并解锁包括会 员专属直播、内刊、高端交流群等全部权益，欢迎文末扫码加入西京研究院会员，洞察趋势，快人一步。 本文逻辑: 正 文 今年是全球资产的狂欢年，就连熊市蛰伏了三年多的A股、港股，都持续大幅上涨。特别是A股，接连突破十年新高，上周突破了4000点。美、韩、日、 英、阿根廷等诸多国家的股市，也纷纷创造历史新高。黄金也突破了4300，虽然之后发生巨大波动，回撤了超过10%，但仍然在4000元的高位。比特币们 早就创造了历史新高，只是现在处于盘整蓄力阶段，没人敢说是顶部。可以说，除了中房、黑色、石油等不动产、大宗商品持续低迷之外，几乎所有的金 融资产处于一种狂欢状态。在投资者如此亢奋的情绪之下，有很多学者开始提醒泡沫破裂的风险，与2000年互联网泡沫与2009年次贷相比较。对投资者来 说，预测泡沫是一件很危险的事情，胜出的"大空头"们不过是极少的幸存者偏差。但是，我们需要理解大类资产狂欢的背后发生了什么？如果主要的大类 资产"应涨尽涨"，那么就意味着衡量资产价格的货币价值在"应跌 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The overall performance of the US economy is stable, but both of the central bank's targets face risks of deterioration [1][20] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is seen as a move to support employment demand while easing inflationary pressures [20] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy directions, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts [5][7] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve has observed rising repo rates and federal funds rates, leading to a decision to halt the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [4] - The current policy rate is set between 3.75% and 4.0%, with a recent cut of 25 basis points [1][7] - The committee's decision reflects a mix of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members calling for a more cautious approach [5][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Situation - The September CPI data indicates inflation is close to the 2% target, but the absence of PPI data complicates the assessment of overall inflation trends [11][12] - Employment market dynamics are influenced by a significant reduction in new worker supply and a decrease in labor demand, leading to a unique equilibrium in the job market [12][14] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential long-term impacts of tariffs on inflation, viewing them as a one-time effect rather than a persistent issue [11][15] Group 4: Asset Bubble and Macro Stability - Investment in data centers and AI is robust, with companies believing these investments will enhance productivity, indicating a disconnect from interest rate sensitivity [15][17] - The Federal Reserve does not assess the appropriateness of asset market valuations but focuses on the overall stability of the financial system [16][18] - Concerns about potential asset bubbles are rising, with the market's current enthusiasm reflecting a complex interplay of economic factors [20][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The reappointment process for regional Federal Reserve presidents is ongoing, with no immediate concerns raised by the current leadership [19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived as fragile, especially in light of political pressures and the potential influence of future leadership changes [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally, driven by strong fundamentals, has raised concerns about a potential bubble, but Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer argues that the market has not yet entered a bubble phase despite some historical similarities [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Asset Bubbles - Historical asset bubbles are often fueled by excitement around transformative technologies, leading to excessive price increases and speculation beyond fundamental values [2]. - The current market shows a high concentration of leadership, with the top ten companies in the U.S. accounting for nearly a quarter of the global stock market value, predominantly in the tech sector [2]. Group 2: IPO and M&A Market Trends - The IPO and M&A markets are heating up, with the average first-day IPO premium in the U.S. reaching 30%, the highest since the late 1990s tech bubble [4]. - While there are signs of excess, the current IPO activity is not comparable to the speculative IPOs of the past, as most tech investments are driven by mature companies' capital expenditures rather than high-risk leverage [4][5]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - Although capital expenditures relative to sales have increased, they remain below historical bubble levels, and leverage is controlled, with most spending funded by internal cash flow rather than debt [5][6]. - The increase in bond issuance by large tech companies does not indicate a bubble, as their overall financial health remains robust, reducing systemic risk [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on diversification, closely monitor capital expenditures and leverage, and avoid overpaying for companies lacking a track record [8]. - Opportunities should be sought in adjacent sectors such as infrastructure and resources, which are crucial for supporting AI development, while being cautious of rising leverage in large tech companies [8].

Core Insights - The 2025 Bund Conference, held from October 23 to 25 in Shanghai, focuses on the theme "Embracing Change: New Order, New Technology," gathering global leaders to discuss the reshaping of the global economic and financial landscape and the profound impact of technological innovation [1] Group 1: AI and Market Dynamics - AI has significant potential for economic transformation, but current market enthusiasm appears excessively high [3] - The S&P 500 index's rise is heavily concentrated in seven major tech stocks, which now account for one-third of the index's market value, a concentration level exceeding that seen before the 2000 internet bubble [3] - Historical asset bubbles demonstrate that speculative cycles are inevitable, characterized by soaring valuations, high concentration, and capital inflows driven by irrational expectations [3] Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Considerations - Financial regulators should closely monitor the feedback mechanisms between asset prices, the real economy, and monetary policy to prevent systemic risks from excessive monetary easing [3] - The focus of global competition is shifting from "General Artificial Intelligence (AGI)" to "application layer innovation," with the U.S. being more aggressive in AGI research while China excels in practical applications [4] Group 3: U.S. Dollar and Macroeconomic Policy - The current weakness of the U.S. dollar is attributed to structural factors rather than a fundamental shift in its reserve currency status [5] - The U.S. government shutdown has reduced the transparency of key economic statistics, increasing uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy decisions [5] - If market expectations for interest rate cuts are unmet, the U.S. stock market may experience significant volatility [5] Group 4: Outlook for China - Confidence in China's medium to long-term growth prospects remains strong, with expectations of achieving around 5% growth this year [5]

Core Insights - Gold is currently signaling extreme caution as it outperforms all major risk assets, indicating a potential market correction ahead [1][5][11] - The price of gold has reached $4,000 an ounce, with significant inflows into ETFs, suggesting a growing interest in gold as a safe haven [2][10] - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the sustainability of gold's price increase, with some experts labeling it as a bubble [3][4] Market Dynamics - Gold is viewed as overextended, with its current valuation being the highest since 1979, raising alarms about potential market corrections [1][5] - The volatility of gold compared to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is notable, with Bitcoin trading at 2 to 3 times the volatility of gold since 2021 [4] - The S&P 500 is currently about 1.66 times the price of gold, which is historically high, suggesting that U.S. stocks may be overvalued [8] Investment Sentiment - There is a growing sentiment among investors to exit positions in assets that have appreciated significantly, with gold being one of those assets [5][11] - The current positioning in gold futures shows that about 33% of total open interest is net long, indicating that the market is not excessively overextended yet [10] - Central banks are actively buying gold, which supports its price, but caution is advised as historical trends suggest that when gold becomes this stretched, it is prudent to be cautious rather than greedy [9][11]