免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/10/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 790.50 | +10.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 459,565 | +12200↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 19.5 | -1.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -8651 | +6698↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. In the short - term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. The positive market sentiment after the China - US leaders' call also has a positive impact on the ore price. Further observation of downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed is needed [11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. Australia and Brazil's total iron ore shipment was 29.778 million tons, an increase of 6.482 million tons. Australia's shipment was 20.846 million tons, an increase of 2.622 million tons, with 18.362 million tons shipped to China, an increase of 3.049 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.932 million tons, an increase of 3.86 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.923 million tons, a decrease of 1.806 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 23.623 million tons, a decrease of 0.857 million tons [11][13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points [11][13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 0.7444 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.5103 million tons, an increase of 0.0664 million tons [11][13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 18.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 129 yuan/ton, a change of + 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 173 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 28.0 yuan/ton, a change of + 10.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.05%, a change of - 0.25 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a change of + 0.4 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.67%, a change of - 0.16 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2285 yuan/ton, with no change; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2130 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a change of - 1.3 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was - 14.01 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: No specific data analysis on freight is provided in the summary part, only relevant charts are shown. 3.3. Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.0108 million tons, a change of - 0.4839 million tons. The pellet inventory was 291,240 tons, a change of + 3840 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.02666 million tons, a change of - 0.05196 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.67176 million tons, a change of + 0.04523 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 5.77557 million tons, a change of - 0.03094 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.26652 million tons, a change of + 0.0383 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.30943 million tons, an increase of 0.31638 million tons from last week [46]. 3.4. Supply Side - Overseas Shipment: The latest 19 - port data shows that Australia's shipment to China was 17.367 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.445 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.693 million tons, an increase of 3.818 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment to China was 6.372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.388 million tons. BHP's shipment to China was 4.798 million tons, an increase of 0.272 million tons. Vale's shipment was 6.112 million tons, an increase of 2.591 million tons. FMG's shipment to China was 3.981 million tons, an increase of 0.715 million tons [51][54][57]. - Arrival and Import: The latest 45 - port arrival volume was 23.623 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.857 million tons. In July, China's non - Australia and Brazil iron ore imports were 17.5216 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1066 million tons [60]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%, a change of + 0.42 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 48,140 tons, a change of + 330 tons [66]. 3.5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points [71]. - Ore Clearance and Consumption: The 45 - port iron ore daily average clearance volume was 3.3917 million tons, a change of + 0.0789 million tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore daily consumption was 2.9745 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.008 million tons [74]. 3.6. Basis As of September 19, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.16 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.85% [79].

东海期货：市场再出限产传闻，成材产量小幅回落。上周铁水产量回升至240万吨上方，短期继续上涨 空间也有限。供应方面，本周全球铁矿石发运量环比回升816.9万吨，到港量环比回落85.7万吨，供应整 体维持高位。铁矿石港口库存也小幅下降63万吨。铁矿石价格仍以区间震荡思路对待。 据统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量13801.08万吨，环比下降48.39万吨；日均疏港量339.17万吨，增 7.89万吨；在港船舶数量101条，增1条；全国47个港口进口铁矿库存总量14381.68万吨，环比下降74.44 万吨；日均疏港量351.03万吨，增6.64万吨。 9月18日，中国钢铁工业协会铁矿石工作委员会在北京组织召开铁矿石工作会议，分析当前铁矿石市场 形势，研究近期主要工作，围绕北京铁矿石交易中心即将推出的进口铁矿石港口现货价格指数进行了安 排部署。国内钢铁生产企业和铁矿石贸易企业铁矿石采购业务负责人参加会议。 机构观点 正信期货：昨日五大材产量下滑幅度较小，夜盘矿价震荡偏强。本周澳巴发运回升，到港继续走低，近 端供应环比收紧；需求方面，受唐山限产结束影响，铁水产量大幅回升，铁矿需求增加明显；库存来 看，疏港量大幅增 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macroeconomically, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the US economy is slowing, making short - term interest rate cuts a possible policy option. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories declined; hot metal and key steel mills' crude steel daily output decreased. Overall, the short - term market is mixed, the position of the September contract continues to shrink as it approaches delivery, and the market may enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the position was 335,365 lots, down 22,928 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 18.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 4,804 lots, up 6,732 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,900 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at $102.2/ton at 15:00, up $0.40 [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 829 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 36 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was $101.20/ton, down $0.45. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fines was 3.32, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,994, up 73. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.87/ton, up $0.23; from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.15/ton, up $0.50 [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.43%, down 3.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.90%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.76%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.19%, down 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sintering powder of 114 steel mills was 2,756.28 million tons, a decrease of 74.41 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintering powder was 116.14 million tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.73, a decrease of 0.74 from the previous period. In July, China imported 10,462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 132.5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 69,656.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization [2]

Report Title - Black Sector R & D Report: Iron Ore Monthly Report for August 2025 (dated July 31, 2025) [1][7] Core Viewpoint - The market game intensifies, and iron ore prices remain at a high level [1] Summary by Section 1. Iron Ore Market Data Review - Multiple charts show historical price trends of iron ore, including 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different ore types, and basis and spreads of futures contracts [9][15][17] 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Import quantity charts show the historical import volumes of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of iron ore [30][31][36] - A table presents the supply - side data of major iron ore producers from 2020 to 2026E, including RIO, BHP, FMG, etc., along with their year - on - year changes in 2025 and 2026 [57] - Charts display the global shipping volumes of iron ore from different sources like non - Australia and Brazil, non - top four mines, and domestic refined powder production and inventory [62][69][74] Demand Side - Charts show relevant data reflecting iron ore demand, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate, domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, and iron ore consumption in the steel industry (including domestic and overseas) [85][95][100] - Inventory - related charts show the inventory status of imported iron ore at ports, in trade, and the total inventory of the entire iron - element industrial chain [110][112] 3. Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content in the provided text for this part, but the section is named "Iron Ore Market Outlook" [116]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Thursday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. In terms of supply - demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, while the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. Iron - water production remained above 2.4 million tons, and demand support still existed. Overall, due to the high linkage of the black series, the coking coal limit - down affected market sentiment, causing iron ore prices to decline under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were weakening downward, with the green bar expanding. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position volume was 419,559 lots, a decrease of 32,551 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,682 lots, a decrease of 604 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I were 3,600 lots, an increase of 200 lots. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.71 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 824 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 45 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.95 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.39, an increase of 0.07. - The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 32.009 million tons, an increase of 0.918 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.6306 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.95 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, an increase of 2 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 1,995, a decrease of 114. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.32 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.36 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.40%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.18%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.14%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.41%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2.83069 million tons, an increase of 35,920 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 115,700 tons, an increase of 2,230 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 24.47, a decrease of 0.16 compared with the previous period. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - The iron ore port inventory in domestic ports, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the market anticipates that the China-US economic and trade talks will bring positive news; in terms of industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. For the I2509 contract, be cautious when chasing high prices. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it's advisable to buy call options opportunistically [7][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the futures price of the main iron ore contract was 802.5 (+17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 832 (+15) yuan/dry ton. - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 122000 tons week-on-week. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, with an increase of 122000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. - The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 371400 tons. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The molten iron output decreased by 210 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to the same period last year. - The port inventory increased by 14170 tons. As of July 25, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons week-on-week and a decrease of 14.5226 million tons year-on-year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons week-on-week. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from last week and an increase of 48.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, hitting the "pause button" on rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. Trump said he was abandoning the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that it should take the lead in resisting "involutionary" competition and strengthen restructuring and integration. The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. - Supply and demand aspect: The iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year-on-year decline widened; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. - Technical aspect: The iron ore I2509 contract is still in an upward channel, with the daily K-line moving average combination in a bullish arrangement; the MACD indicator shows that the upward momentum of DIFF and DEA has slowed down, and the red bars have shrunk. - Strategy suggestion: Considering the macro situation, the market expects positive news from the China-US economic and trade talks; in terms of the industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. Be cautious when chasing high prices for the I2509 contract. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. It performed weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 25th, the price difference was 30 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - This week, the iron ore warehouse receipts increased. On July 25, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3400 lots, a week-on-week increase of 400 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 25163 lots, an increase of 21618 lots compared to the previous week. - This week, the spot price increased. On July 25, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 832 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 25th, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [13][19][25]. 3. Industry Situation - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, an increase of 122000 tons; the iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 16.294 million tons, a decrease of 108900 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, an increase of 13500 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 9.226 million tons, an increase of 102100 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The iron ore port inventory increased. This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a decrease of 94300 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 63.0925 million tons, an increase of 88430 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 51.396 million tons, a decrease of 38630 tons; the trading ore inventory was 91.8357 million tons, a decrease of 9970 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a decrease of 150 tons; the inventory consumption ratio was 29.51 days, an increase of 0.22 days. - The available days of iron ore inventory for the sample steel mills increased this period. As of July 24, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for domestic large and medium-sized steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day. On July 24, the Baltic Dry Bulk Shipping Index BDI was 2258, a week-on-week increase of 206. - The iron ore import volume increased, and the mine capacity utilization rate was adjusted upward. According to customs data, in June 2025, China's iron ore and concentrate imports were 105.948 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68%; the average daily concentrate output was 406800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons; the inventory was 410000 tons, a decrease of 44500 tons. - The domestic iron ore concentrate output declined. In June 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. The iron concentrate output of 433 iron mine enterprises was 23.304 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 76200 tons, a decline of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decline of 8.0% [28][31][34][38][41]. 4. Downstream Situation - From January to June, the crude steel output decreased year-on-year. In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. In June, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 900000 tons, a decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 58.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 470000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11000 tons, a decline of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative imports were 3.023 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%. - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron output decreased. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, the same as last week and an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points compared to last year. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to last year [44][47]. 5. Options Market - In the past two days, the ore price has pulled back from a high level, but the anti-involution expectation will continue to benefit the black series. Therefore, there is still a possibility of a rebound after the iron ore adjustment. It is recommended to buy call options opportunistically [50].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, while steel mills maintain high production levels and profitability, indicating a resilient demand despite seasonal trends [7]. Supply - Global shipments of iron ore increased to 31.09 million tons, up by 1.22 million tons week-on-week, while port arrivals decreased to 23.71 million tons, down by 2.91 million tons [5]. - Monthly national imports reached 105.948 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons compared to the previous month [5]. Demand - Daily iron water production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up by 0.31% [4]. - The profitability of steel mills stands at 60.17%, reflecting a 0.43% increase, indicating strong financial performance [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with total inventory at 137.9038 million tons, up by 51,700 tons week-on-week [6]. - The average daily dispatch volume from ports decreased to 3.1515 million tons, down by 75,900 tons [6]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose to 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 630,600 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain high production levels in July, averaging around 2.4 million tons per day, supported by improved steel mill profitability [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, which may influence supply-side dynamics [7]. - Short-term iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate, with recommendations for traders to gradually take profits on long positions and consider arbitrage strategies [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The mainstream positions increasing support the iron ore price to rise, but the adjustment of steel prices may affect the rebound space of iron ore prices. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 773 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume is 690,377 lots, up 21,689 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 31.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 5,148 lots, up 15,032 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,000 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 99.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.93 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 798 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 25 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.40, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 808 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 tons, down 7.80 tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 tons, up 347.70 tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 tons, down 139.01 tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 tons, up 61.07 tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 tons, up 781.80 tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 tons, down 0.72 tons; the operating rate is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 tons, down 1.59 tons. The BDI index is 1,783, up 120. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 US dollars/ton, up 0.48 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 tons, down 337 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.56%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.43%, up 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, up 4.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.45%, up 2.22% [2] Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 tons, with continuous inventory accumulation. From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,883.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 347.7 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,662.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 178.2 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,147.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 264.1 tons. The I2509 contract increased in position and rose on Wednesday. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the expiration date of the suspension of additional tariffs between the US and China, and the two sides' negotiations are in a "good situation", expecting talks in the next few weeks. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory in China changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued to decline slightly, but the molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macro - wise, Trump threatened to impose "very severe, about 100% tariffs" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot end within 50 days. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrivals increased, and the domestic port inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued a slight decline, but molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support. Currently, supported by favorable policies and steel mills' price - holding, the iron ore price is running strongly. However, steel mills' purchasing intention is general, with cautious inquiry and mainly for rigid demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are回调 at high levels, and the green bar is expanding. Operationally, trade in the short - term range of 775 - 750, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 767 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume is 668,688 hands, up 3,867 hands [2]. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 28.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 20,180 hands, up 4,019 hands [2]. - The I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,100 hands, unchanged [2]. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 98.9 dollars/ton, down 0.69 dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 818 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 30 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.60 dollars/ton, up 0.30 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.42, up 0.02 [2]. - The estimated import cost is 812 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil are 29.871 million tons, down 78,000 tons; the weekly total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 28.832 million tons, up 3.477 million tons [2]. - The weekly iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 143.4689 million tons, down 1.3901 million tons; the weekly iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 89.7964 million tons, up 610,700 tons [2]. - The monthly iron ore imports are 105.948 million tons, up 7.818 million tons; the weekly available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days [2]. - The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 396,800 tons, down 7,200 tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57 percentage points [2]. - The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 507,200 tons, down 15,900 tons; the BDI index is 1,783, up 120 [2]. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 dollars/ton, up 0.85 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 dollars/ton, up 0.48 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.87%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The monthly domestic crude steel output is 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.93%, down 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.36%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, down 3.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.23%, down 0.48 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 29.871 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78,000 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.588 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 938,000 tons. Australia's shipments were 17.383 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 643,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 14.301 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.205 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.581 million tons [2]. - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 28.832 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.477 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 26.621 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.782 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 11.479 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.641 million tons [2].