铅周报：铅蓄消费转弱 关注再生铅冶炼成本支撑 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-135美元/干吨。铅精矿市场整体平稳，进口矿偏紧并几无报价的现状持续，2026年长单方 面，多数贸易商仅能提供远期最少供货数量但仍无法确定加工费报价。国内矿贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂持续按需采购，银价高位回调后除个别矿山接受小幅回调 加工费弥补冶炼厂加工利润损失外，多数矿山和冶炼厂并未提及铅精矿加工费价格调整。江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂因铅精矿供应短缺出现生产开工下滑的情况并 未缓和。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均率67.7%，较上周环比小幅增加0.13%。河南地区原生铅冶炼厂产量 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [3] Group 2: Core View - The lead supply may increase but is difficult to rise significantly The demand from lead - acid battery enterprises is recovering, but the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream procurement is cautious The lead ingot inventory may change, and the Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate with limited upside height It is recommended to short on rallies and lay out short positions at high prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,092 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The Shanghai lead open interest is 128,847 lots, up 1,473 lots The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,218 lots, down 271 lots The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 25,824 tons, up 1,138 tons The SHFE inventory is 38,582 tons, up 2,583 tons The LME lead inventory is 225,225 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan The spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,710 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 23.9 dollars/ton, down 3.01 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 69.54%, down 3.45 percentage points The weekly output of primary lead is 3.83 tons, down 0.03 tons The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton The global lead mine output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons The lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units The average price of waste batteries is 10,021.43 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan The average price of lead - antimony alloy is 19,725 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The output of automobiles is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons The output of new energy vehicles is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,179.75 points, down 62.93 points [3] 6. Industry News - The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown The US Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook The White House says October non - farm and inflation data may not be released Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February and reaffirmed a hawkish stance New York Fed President Williams said the time to restart bond purchases is approaching [3] 7. View Summary - Supply growth is limited due to smelter overhauls and environmental protection measures Demand is supported by the traditional peak season and battery companies' expansion but is suppressed by export pressure and cautious procurement The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level but may change The Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate with limited upside It is recommended to short on rallies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of lead may increase but is difficult to rise significantly. On the supply side, the production growth of primary lead is limited due to many smelter overhauls, and the production increase of recycled lead is also restricted by environmental protection and raw - material supply. On the demand side, although the traditional consumption season has increased the demand for lead, the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, so the growth of demand is also restricted. The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but it may change with the increase of imported lead and potential growth of recycled lead production. The Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 127,374 lots, up 8,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 947 lots, down 3,596 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 24,686 tons, up 917 tons. The SHFE inventory is 38,582 tons, up 2,583 tons; the LME lead inventory is 226,725 tons, up 24,525 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,510 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 335 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 20.89 US dollars/ton, down 8.59 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,846 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 69.54%, down 3.45 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.83 tons, down 0.03 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of waste batteries is 10,021.43 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) is 19,575 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other batteries is 2,242.68 points, up 67.94 points. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US private sector reduced an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25; Goldman Sachs estimated that the US non - farm payrolls decreased by about 50,000 in October. The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday. Russia is willing to participate in the preparation if the US restarts the proposal for a summit. India cut Russian crude oil orders in December and increased US crude oil purchases. Switzerland and the US may reach a 15% tariff agreement on Thursday or Friday. There are rifts within the UK ruling party, and the health minister is accused of plotting to oust the prime minister. Turkey seeks to sentence the mayor of Istanbul to hundreds of years in prison, and the Turkish benchmark stock index fell 3% [2]. 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, the production growth of primary lead is limited due to overhauls, and the production increase of recycled lead is restricted by environmental protection and raw - material supply. On the demand side, although it is the traditional consumption season, the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but may change with the increase of imported lead and potential growth of recycled lead production. The Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3].

Report Title Lead Weekly Report: Pay Attention to the Impact of Capital Flows, Lead Prices May Rise and Then Fall [1] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still have upward momentum due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure, and social inventories may gradually accumulate slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic - **Trading Logic and Strategy** - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: Domestic lead concentrate supply and demand are in a tight balance, with domestic processing fees at 350 yuan/metal ton and SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fees at - 125 dollars/dry ton. After the lead price increase, scrap battery purchase prices of secondary lead smelters did not rise significantly, and recyclers were reluctant to sell. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead continued to increase, and raw material demand also increased. With the increase in the operating rate of secondary lead smelters, the price of lead - containing waste is expected to rise [4]. - **Smelting**: The average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.57%, a 0.93% decline from last week. Some smelters in Hunan and North China had production changes. The SMM four - province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 42.21%, a 7.10% increase from last week. The smelting profit improved, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters was boosted, with the operating rate expected to rise next week [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.35%, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The energy storage battery market performed best, while the electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had differences. High lead prices may affect battery enterprise orders and production [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, SMM's five - region social lead ingot inventory was 31,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from October 20 and October 16. On October 23, LME inventory was 135,400 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from October 17. In the long - term, domestic social inventory may gradually accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still rise due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure. Short positions can be gradually established at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see. - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Other Sub - sections** - **1.2 Futures Price**: Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading and positions is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] - **1.3 Price Spread**: Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead, LME lead 0 - 3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is covered [9] - **1.4 Inventory Data**: It includes LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory [12] - **1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory**: It involves smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly and weekly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, and primary lead smelter finished product inventory [16] 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - It includes global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports [21] - **2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - Information on domestic total lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [24] - **2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary** - It covers the price of lead - containing waste, scrap battery price, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory [29][30] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **3.1 Global Refined Lead** - It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand [37][39] - **3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export** - It involves import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss [42] - **3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit** - It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [43] - **3.4 Primary Lead Supply** - It covers primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production [48] - **3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit** - It includes the cost and profit of large - scale and small - to - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [50][54] - **3.6 Secondary Lead Supply** - It involves secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and secondary lead bullion production [60] - **3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply** - It includes domestic total lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export [64] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **4.1 Lead - Acid Battery** - It includes lead - acid battery enterprise operating rate, dealer finished product inventory, export volume, enterprise finished product inventory, and import volume [71] - **4.2 Lead Alloys and Plates** - It involves lead alloy price, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export [74] - **4.3 Automobile** - It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production [76][77] - **4.4 Motorcycle, Power, and Communication** - It covers motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power project (grid project and power source project) [80][81][82]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that next week's Shanghai lead futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. After the release of positive news, the market may rise first and then fall. It is recommended to short - sell lead at high prices. The supply of lead is expected to increase, while the overall demand is still slowly recovering, and the inventory is rising, indicating a slowdown in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,060 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,971.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the open interest of Shanghai lead was 81,273 lots, up 1,372 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 685 lots, up 383 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 29,265 tons, down 2,817 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,701 tons, up 1,785 tons; the LME lead inventory was 250,400 tons, down 1,600 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,100 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.85 dollars/ton, up 3.14 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 83.56%, up 1.46 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.73 tons, up 0.02 tons [3]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,396 yuan, down 75 yuan; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The global lead mine output was 379.9 thousand tons, down 16 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 9,987.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,938.29 points, down 114.72 points; the monthly automobile production was 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons [3]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks [3]. - Trump said the US might not provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine and that his meeting with Putin would be a "bilateral meeting" [3]. - The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund said Russia and the US had started discussing the construction of a Bering Strait tunnel [3]. - Fed's Musalem said he might support another rate - cut if employment faced more risks and inflation was under control [3]. - The US Treasury Department was reported to have bought Argentine pesos at a non - official exchange rate [3]. - The US Secretary of State discussed critical mineral cooperation with the Liberian Foreign Minister [3]. - The US House of Representatives was to go on recess [3]. 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, the processing fee of lead concentrate has stabilized, but the production rhythm of some smelters has changed greatly. Some smelters have maintenance plans, so the increase in primary lead output is limited in the short term [3]. - The supply of waste batteries is still tight, but the profit of recycled lead has recovered. Enterprises that stopped production for maintenance in Anhui have resumed production in October, and the supply of recycled lead and overall lead may increase next week [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and the market trading is inactive. The seasonal peak season effect of lead - acid batteries has not fully emerged, but the energy - storage demand in emerging fields is good, and overall demand is slowly recovering [3]. - The lead inventory at home and abroad is rising, indicating a slowdown in demand. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures are expected to oscillate at a high level, and lead prices are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on Shanghai lead futures at low prices [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease while demand gradually increases, and combined with market expectations of a Fed rate cut, lead prices are expected to be supported [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,977 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars [3] - The spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 89,999 lots, up 3,876 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,759 lots, up 1,168 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt was 53,689 tons, down 131 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 66,834 tons, up 2,162 tons; the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [3] - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 48.13 dollars/ton, down 4.77 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,254 yuan, up 34 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,660 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [3] - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 78.2%, unchanged; the weekly output of primary lead was 37,100 tons, unchanged [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The ILZSG global lead mine output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate was 400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3] - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,900 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [3] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 2,208.67 points, up 87.22 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case, with the debate scheduled for early November [3] - Macron appointed Defense Minister Lecornu as the French Prime Minister [3] - Sources said the Bank of Japan may slightly reduce its purchases of ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in Q4 [3] - Trump said trade negotiations with India are ongoing and he will talk to Modi in the coming weeks [3] - NVIDIA released the Rubin CPX chip for ultra - long context inference, expected to be shipped in 2026 [3] - US employment data was significantly revised downward, with 911,000 jobs revised down in the 12 months up to March [3] - Nepal saw large - scale protests, with curfews declared in many places, and Prime Minister Oli submitted his resignation to President Bhandari [3] Market Outlook - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, which may limit the increase in primary lead production; primary lead production is expected to remain stable [3] - The supply of recycled lead has significant regional differences, and the tight supply of waste battery raw materials restricts production [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, and the market expects an increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with good performance in the emerging energy storage field [3] - However, downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state, and overall demand is in a slow recovery stage [3] - Foreign lead inventories are falling, domestic inventories are rising, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, with overall inventories unchanged; demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead industry showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Upstream lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries were relatively scarce, limiting the smelting capacity of primary and secondary smelters. The continuous losses in secondary lead production led to production cuts in Anhui and other regions. However, downstream consumption was weaker than in previous years, with some battery enterprises reducing production during the high - temperature holidays and dealers having high finished - product inventories, resulting in a lackluster peak season. - Currently, there is a high expectation of a Fed rate cut, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. The marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply provides some support at the lower end. But if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting resumes, lead prices still have significant downward potential. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted Shanghai lead futures oscillated upwards, closing up 1.02% at 16,885 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 28% to 81,900 lots. The LME 3M lead oscillated upwards, closing up 1.37% at $1,997/ton, with positions increasing by 11% to 161,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - $90/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 400 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. [11] 3.2 Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. The net import of silver concentrates in July was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1.003 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In July, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total production of lead concentrates was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. The net import of lead - containing ores in July was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. - **Total Supply**: In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 1.8168 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2.2565 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6%. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. - **Smelting**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2.2064 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51%. [15][17][19] 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2.2516 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37%. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 4.5165 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. [31][33][35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. In July 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 4.4784 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. - **Battery Exports**: In July 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 20.8925 million units, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. - **Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth in delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries with lithium - iron - phosphate start - up batteries, the high existing vehicle inventory and high replacement demand for lead - acid start - up batteries in existing vehicles support domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries. [40][43][45] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 38,100 tons. - **Overseas Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons. [63][66] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead became net short, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position analysis provides a neutral indication. [71][74][80]

1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - **Smelting End**: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - **Consumption End**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains flat this week, demand is gradually weakening, and with anti - involution speculation, it is advisable to place long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997 dollars/ton, up 21.5 dollars. - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 104,515 lots, down 720 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,323 lots, down 114 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,656 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,600 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.88 dollars/ton, up 6.04 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,100 tons, up 600 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. - The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,827.23 points, up 55.7 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 166,600. - The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump met with the CEOs of Bank of America and Citigroup at the White House to discuss "two - housing" related plans. - Regarding the US - Russia talks: ① Trump said the talks were fruitful, and there is a high possibility of a summit among Zelensky, Putin, and him. The three leaders may meet face - to - face as early as next week. ② Rubio said the decision on secondary sanctions against Russia will be made in the next 24 - 36 hours, and the Russian and US leaders may talk in a few days. - Regarding the Federal Reserve: ① Kashkari said it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two rate cuts this year are reasonable. ② Trump said the new Federal Reserve governor may be temporary, and the appointment will be announced in 2 - 3 days [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead smelters' operating rates increased due to the downward trend of lead prices, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. - Recycled lead is currently affected by the tight supply of scrap battery raw materials, resulting in low confidence among smelters and tight overall supply. Due to cost inversion, the resumption of production is slow. - The price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of scrap electric batteries remained stable, with some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi raising the price by 50 yuan/ton. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, spot transactions are flat, and downstream enterprises are generally waiting and watching. The slow inventory digestion of dealers has greatly suppressed the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the downstream continues to wait and watch this week, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand will remain weak. - In terms of inventory, it has shown a slight upward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]