Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: This week, production increased slightly, and supply remained high and stable. Overseas aluminum plants may face certain supply disruptions due to the Middle East war [3]. - Demand side: This week, the output of the aluminum rod and aluminum plate industries also maintained a steady increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. The spill - over of overseas geopolitical risks intensified macro risks and actual supply disruptions. The market is currently showing a volatile and upward trend [3]. -利多 factors: Global supply elasticity is insufficient, and the overall supply is tight; the capacity utilization rate of downstream processing industries is gradually increasing [4]. -利空 factors: The overall profit is still very considerable; high prices suppress transactions, and social inventory accumulates slightly [4][8]. Alumina - Supply: The supply shortage of bauxite has not been alleviated, and enterprises still have maintenance plans, but there is no significant change in alumina supply [4]. - Demand: The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the loose expectation makes downstream enterprises still resist high - priced goods. In the short term, the spot price continues to rise slightly, and the market price is prone to rise and difficult to fall [4]. -利多 factors: The expected logic of cost increase still exists; downstream demand remains high [9]. -利空 factors: The overall supply is still in surplus; the growth rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum slows down, suppressing the demand for alumina [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Position - The report presents the closing prices and positions of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum (3 - month) futures, and alumina futures main contracts, as well as various price spreads and basis data [6][16] Upstream Supply - Bauxite: It shows the national monthly production, import volume, port inventory, and provincial - level monthly production of Chinese bauxite [23][24] - Alumina: It includes the monthly production, import volume, import profit and loss, provincial - level weekly and national weekly operating rates of alumina [25][30][31] - Electrolytic aluminum: It presents the monthly and weekly production, net import volume, and import profit and loss of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, as well as the monthly production of global electrolytic aluminum [32][34][39] Downstream Demand - Product output: It shows the weekly and monthly output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [40][41][43] - Operating rate: It includes the weekly and monthly operating rates of various downstream industries such as aluminum profiles, plates, foils, and cables [44][46][51] - Export: It presents the monthly export volume and export profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products [55][56] - Related industries: It shows the data of real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automobile (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), power grid (power grid project investment, new line length), and photovoltaic (solar power project investment, new photovoltaic installation volume) [60][61][63] Inventory - It includes the monthly inventory of Chinese bauxite in different regions, the in - plant inventory and inventory days of alumina enterprises, the warehouse receipt volume of SHFE alumina, the inventory of LME aluminum, the warehouse receipt quantity of SHFE aluminum, the social inventory and inventory days of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, and the spot inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots + aluminum rods [67][70][74] Cost and Profit - It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, alumina cost, alumina spot price, pre - baked anode price, power coal price, Dutch natural gas TTF, European electricity prices, and the cost and profit of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [76][77][78]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum: The fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: The fundamentals may be in a stage of a slight increase in supply and a recovery in demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, up 790 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the main contract position is 263,928 lots, up 6,833 lots [2] - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,941 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 202,711 lots, down 6,100 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 148,050 tons, down 2,200 tons; LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 3,284.5 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 420,875 tons, down 2,200 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 39,554 lots, up 3,658 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.53, up 0.17 [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 23,630 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 8,987 lots, down 1,664 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 35,207 tons, down 1,477 tons; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 454,571 tons, up 2,527 tons [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 412,452 tons, up 4,255 tons [2] Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,700 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 24,530 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,070 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 195 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 61.23 US dollars/ton, up 2.33 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 171 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina output is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.10%, down 0.39%; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 83.00%, down 1.00% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 19,150 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste is 18,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum waste and scrap is 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume is 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the import volume is 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 21.82 tons, up 1.33 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 129.40 tons, down 0.70 tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume is 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,540.20 tons, unchanged; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04% [2] - The output of aluminum products is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 43.00 tons, down 11.00 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the automobile output is 341.15 tons, down 10.75 tons [2] Industry News - US President Trump claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the US vice - president says the US will withdraw after handling current affairs [2] - In 2025, global auto sales were 96.89 million units, a 6% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, global auto sales were 6.74 million units, a 2% year - on - year decrease. From January to February 2026, global auto sales were 13.96 million units, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. China's auto market share declined in 2026 [2] - The China Consumer Product Quality and Safety Promotion Association launched the "Online Product Quality and Safety Improvement Series Campaign 2026" [2] - The European Federation for Transport and Environment reports that the global shipping industry's fuel costs have soared due to the US - Israel - Iran conflict [2] - The largest metal production facility of Emirates Global Aluminium was "severely damaged" in the Iranian missile and drone attacks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: This week, there were no significant production increases or decreases in the supply side, and the operating capacity remained stable. On the demand side, the aluminum rod and aluminum plate industries continued to resume production, with an increase in capacity utilization. However, the sharp increase in spot prices suppressed transactions, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. The spill - over of overseas geopolitical risks intensified macro risks, and the market showed a strong and volatile trend [3]. - **Alumina**: This week, alumina supply increased slightly, but overall supply was still in excess. In the short term, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. This week, the spot price of alumina rose, trading picked up, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory was still high. In the short term, the logic of rising energy costs is dominant, and the price will be volatile and slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: The report presents data on the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures and LME aluminum futures, as well as the basis, spread, and price differences in different regions of aluminum spot [5][10][11]. - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: It shows the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures, as well as the spot price, basis, spread, and price differences in different regions of alumina [14][15][18]. 3.2 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: It includes the monthly production of domestic bauxite by province, monthly import volume, and port inventory [22][23]. - **Alumina**: The monthly production, weekly operating rate by province, monthly import volume, and import profit and loss of alumina are presented [25][28][30]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly and weekly production, monthly net import, and import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum are shown, as well as the weekly delivery volume of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods [34][35][39]. 3.3 Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Production**: The production of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots is presented on a weekly or monthly basis [40]. - **Industry Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries, such as aluminum profiles, plates, foils, and cables, are shown [44][52]. - **Exports**: The monthly export volume and export profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products are presented [56][57]. - **Related Industries**: Data on the construction, automotive, power grid, and photovoltaic industries, such as housing construction and completion area, vehicle production, power grid investment, and photovoltaic installation volume, are also provided [61][62][64]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: The monthly inventory of bauxite in China and in specific provinces is presented [69]. - **Alumina Inventory**: The factory inventory and inventory days of alumina enterprises, as well as the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume, are shown [72][73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, social inventory, inventory days of electrolytic aluminum, and the spot inventory of aluminum rods and the combined inventory of aluminum ingots and rods are presented [73][74][76]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity are presented [78][79][80]. - **Cost and Profit of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are shown [78][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum plates decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories accumulated as downstream enterprises went on holiday. Short - term fluctuations were large due to overseas macro - situations and macro - aspects, and the market was currently in a high - level shock [3]. -利多 factors: Clear policy restrictions on domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and insufficient global supply elasticity; the inventory of the entire industrial chain was still low [4]. -利空 factors: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises were still in the process of commissioning, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry increased slightly; there was some production reduction in the downstream, and the procurement willingness of processing enterprises was low approaching the Spring Festival [4]. Alumina - Supply side: Some enterprises will end maintenance and resume normal production, while some are promoting the production reduction process. Overall, the alumina supply was still in surplus, and there were still fundamental negative factors [5]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of small - scale growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot price of alumina was stable this week, and the factory inventory continued to increase. There were still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom might gradually emerge [5]. -利多 factors: Some enterprises were promoting production reduction, causing short - term supply disturbances; downstream demand remained high [6]. -利空 factors: The overall supply reduction was limited, and the supply was still in surplus; the growth rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum slowed down, suppressing the demand for alumina [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: The report shows the national monthly production seasonality, provincial monthly production, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [21][22]. - **Alumina**: It includes the national weekly operating rate, provincial weekly operating rate, monthly import volume seasonality, import profit and loss, monthly production seasonality, and production in major producing areas [25][28][33]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly production seasonality, weekly production seasonality, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are presented [31][34][38]. Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: It shows the weekly production seasonality of aluminum rods, and the monthly production seasonality of aluminum profiles, aluminum rods, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rate seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum profiles, aluminum rods, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloys are provided [43][52]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products are presented [54][56]. - **Related Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion area and fixed - asset investment completion, as well as the monthly values of automobile production, new energy vehicle production, power grid project investment, new 220 - kV and above line length, solar power project investment, and photovoltaic new - installed capacity are shown [57][59][62][66]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: The monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite and its inventory seasonality in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi are presented [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The factory inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality of alumina enterprises are shown [69][70]. - **Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality, and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality are presented [70][73]. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of domestic bauxite, imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices are shown [75][76]. - **Cost and Profit of Aluminum Products**: The cost and profit of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are presented [76].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z0023138) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease occurred this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories may accumulate as downstream enterprises take holidays [3]. - Market situation: Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support the aluminum price, and the market is currently showing a high - level and strong oscillation [3]. Alumina - Supply side: There were more alumina overhauls this week, and suppliers' sentiment to hold up prices increased. However, the overall alumina supply was still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors remained [4]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of slight growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina was okay this week, but the factory inventory continued to increase [4]. - Market situation: There are still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Categories 1. Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: Include data such as the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum closing price and position, A00 aluminum spot average price and premium - discount average, etc. [5][6][11][12] - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: Include the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures main contracts, alumina spot price in different regions, alumina price differences, and basis [16][17][19] 2. Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: China's bauxite national monthly output, import volume, and port inventory have seasonal characteristics, and the monthly output varies by province [21][22] - **Alumina**: China's alumina monthly output, import volume, and national and provincial weekly operating rates are presented seasonally. There are also data on alumina import profit and loss [24][26][27][29] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly output, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly output, net import volume, and import profit and loss are shown seasonally [31][32][33][40] 3. Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Output**: The output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots has seasonal characteristics [41] - **Industry Operating Rates**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foils are presented seasonally [42][44][50] - **Export Data**: The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of aluminum products are shown seasonally [52][54] - **Related Industries**: Data on real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power - source project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) are provided [55][58][60][63][66] 4. Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: China's bauxite monthly inventory and inventory in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi have seasonal characteristics [67][69] - **Alumina Inventory**: Alumina enterprise factory inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume have seasonal patterns [70][71] - **Aluminum Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory have seasonal characteristics [71][72][73] 5. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Include domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, power coal prices, Dutch natural gas prices, and European electricity prices [75][76] - **Cost and Profit of Products**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are presented [75][76]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Electrolytic Aluminum Futures Weekly Report (January 12 - 16, 2026)" - Report Focus: Analysis of the electrolytic aluminum market, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, inventory changes, and market sentiment 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The electrolytic aluminum market will experience a moderately strong and high - level oscillation in January 2026. The price may rise first and then fall due to the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and strong macro - drivers. The expected price range for spot aluminum in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait for price increases in the medium - term, and short - term long positions should exit and wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market will be moderately strong and may experience high - level oscillations in January. The price may rise first and then fall because the supply - demand situation is weakening while macro - drivers are strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, and medium - term long positions were recommended to be held - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [9] 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Bauxite Market - Guinea bauxite transportation cost to the port is 20 - 45 dollars/ton. The expected CIF average price in 2026 is 58 - 68 dollars/ton. Domestic ore supply may tighten further, and imported ore supply is expected to increase [10] 3.3.2 Alumina Market - As of January 9, domestic alumina's installed capacity is about 1.1255 billion tons, operating capacity is about 95.90 million tons, and the utilization rate is about 85.74%. Newly added domestic capacity in 2026 is about 14.40 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Overseas newly added capacity may be limited. In January, alumina production cuts may increase [10] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December, domestic installed capacity was about 46.19 million tons, operating capacity was about 44.69 million tons, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. In 2026, global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear [10] 3.3.4 Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,300 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The EU's CBAM implementation may increase export costs in the short term [10] 3.3.5 Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 718,000 tons, up about 13% from last week and about 62% from the same period last year. Aluminum rod inventory is 174,900 tons, up about 25% from last week and about 30% from the same period last year. LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly [11] 3.3.6 Profitability - The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,720 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit is about - 40 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit is about 100 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.3.7 Market Expectation - The market will experience high - level oscillations due to the game between macro - factors and fundamentals. The price may rise first and then fall in January. The expected price range for spot aluminum is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices continue to decline. Coal prices rebound from the low level and may continue to oscillate. Alumina spot prices remain stable, and the market is pessimistic overall [12] 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite port inventory decreases, alumina inventory increases. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase, while LME aluminum inventory decreases [13][14][16] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation 3.6.1 Profitability of Domestic Aluminum Industry Links - Alumina has a theoretical spot loss of about 30 yuan/ton and a futures main - contract profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import profit is about - 50 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum has a production cost of about 16,800 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 7,000 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss is about 2,300 yuan/ton [19] 3.6.2 Downstream开工概况 - The weekly开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and开工 rate. It is expected that the开工 rate will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [25][26] 3.7 Shanghai Aluminum Futures Price Curve - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango structure. The market is characterized by "increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high - price suppression of consumption". The price is mainly macro - oriented, and the spot market has a drag effect [29] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,450 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a drag effect on electrolytic aluminum [34][35] 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest fund net long position continues to increase slightly. Overseas funds are dominated by bulls, but there may be high - level fluctuations due to heavy floating - profit positions [37] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main - force net short position increases. Institutional speculative net short positions increase, while industrial - client net long positions increase significantly. Main - force funds are cautious about the recent price increase [40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may see a slight increase in both supply and demand. Costs are supported, and supply expectations are improved by policies. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. The option market is bullish. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand in the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the alumina futures main contract closes at 3,182 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,615 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The spreads of some contracts show various changes [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 215,510 hands, down 6,228 hands; the alumina main contract is 114,892 hands, down 7,074 hands [2]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is 470,575 tons, up 1,075 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 113,614 tons, down 3,913 tons; the alumina total inventory is 85,472 tons, up 38,284 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 115 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 70 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production is 774.93 tons, up 26.13 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 696.19 tons, down 23.83 tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import of alumina is 10.13 tons, up 3.38 tons; the export is 17.00 tons, down 4.00 tons. The import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,523.20 tons, up 2.50 tons; the production of aluminum products is 587.37 tons, up 11.17 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 tons, up 0.29 tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 tons, up 5.20 tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.58 tons, up 0.16 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of automobiles is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles; the production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 tons, up 2.40 tons [2]. - **Market Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 7.78%, down 1.51%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.69%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.77%, up 0.0005 [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.15, up 0.0039 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In July, the CPI环比 turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase, and the PPI环比 decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points [2]. - **Trade Forecast**: The WTO expects the global goods trade volume to grow by 0.9% in 2025 [2]. - **Policy Statements**: Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year; US Treasury Secretary Bentsen comments on Trump's tariff policy and the Fed chair [2]. - **Consumption Promotion**: The "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new - energy vehicle consumption season starts, and in July, the production and retail of new - energy vehicles show significant growth [2].

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, August 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, with the relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of Shunda and Arufa mining rights, the supply is expected to increase. Along with the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the surplus pressure of alumina will intensify. For electrolytic aluminum, the production of replacement capacity in Yunnan will continue to rise, and inventory accumulation may continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. Before the peak season in September, downstream stocking is expected to gradually start. For aluminum alloy, following the logic of Shanghai Aluminum during the off - season, it is expected to shift to the expectation of spread repair in the 2511 peak season. In August, the pattern of the aluminum industry's supply - demand marginal strength is expected to shift from upstream to downstream, with opportunities for the convergence of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread and the expansion of the AL2509 - AO2509 spread. Attention should be paid to the progress of the alumina anti - involution policy and the inventory accumulation cycle of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 1. Price - In July, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 3222 yuan/ton as of July 31, a monthly increase of 7.9%. Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20510 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.3%. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 19950 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 4% [5][6] 2. Spread - In July, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 129 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum changed from a premium of 40 yuan/ton to a discount of 20 yuan/ton [5] 3. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in July will increase to 88270000 tons, with a production of 7500000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. After Shandong enterprises completed regular maintenance, they returned to normal operation, and the operation in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi remained stable, with the overall operation continuing to pick up. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 43830000 tons, with a production of 3730000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. After inventory accumulation at the alloy end, the ingot - casting volume of the upstream increased, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] 4. Demand - In the off - season, downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand rhythm, and the decline in the off - season operating rate converged. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% decline compared to June. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 1.9% to 63.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 0.86% to 69.5%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3% to 50%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1.34% to 61.8%. The processing fee of aluminum rods in Henan decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while in other regions, it increased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The processing fee of aluminum poles in Guangdong remained stable, decreased by 100 yuan/ton in Shandong, and increased by 100 yuan/ton in Henan and Inner Mongolia [3] 5. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in July, alumina inventory decreased by 11400 tons to 6015 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased by 21500 tons to 115800 tons; LME inventory increased by 104100 tons to 461000 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 22400 tons to 48000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory increased by 76000 tons to 544000 tons; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6500 tons to 147000 tons [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,200 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the spread between this month and next month's contracts was 90 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 207,900 lots, up 4,339 lots. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the spread between this month and next month's contracts was 79 yuan, up 19 yuan; the main contract position was 352,989 lots, down 18,319 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 7,831 lots, up 5,153 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19, up 0.10 [2]. - **International Futures**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 54,600 tons, down 4,250 tons; the three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,465 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 377,325 tons, down 4,250 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was 20,370 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 180 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of alumina was 296 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points; alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 50.50 million tons, down 1.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points; the aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.11%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 15.01%, down 0.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 10.01%, up 0.0004 percentage points; the option call - put ratio was 0.67, down 0.0191 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, He Lifeng, met with Dan Simkowitz, the co - president of Morgan Stanley, stating that China will unswervingly promote high - level opening - up and welcome US financial institutions to participate in the construction and development of the Chinese capital market. - Zhang Guoqing, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, emphasized during a research trip in Shanghai the need to build a good ecological environment for the platform economy and maintain a fair and orderly market environment. - From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26,275.5 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; the total profit was 134.914 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; the taxes payable were 203.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. At the end of April, the asset - liability ratio was 65.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - The Fed meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty faced by the economy was higher than before, and it was appropriate to be cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies to become clearer before considering action. - Fed official Williams said that it was crucial to keep inflation expectations stable. - Fed's Kashkari revealed that there was a "debate" within the Fed. - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.358 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.23 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 726,000 units [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The alumina main contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decrease in positions, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The raw material supply of bauxite in China might increase slightly, and the alumina supply was expected to rise slightly as some previously - reduced - production enterprises might resume production. The demand for alumina remained at a high level due to the stable production of electrolytic aluminum. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 - axis and the red bars were expanding [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract showed a volatile trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively sufficient, while the demand growth slowed down due to seasonal factors. The industry inventory was still at a low level and might accumulate slightly if seasonal consumption weakened. The option market sentiment was bearish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were near the 0 - axis and the red bars were expanding [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of trading lightly with a weak oscillation, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth, with an option market sentiment leaning towards bearishness. It is recommended to trade lightly with an oscillatory approach and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was 60 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 203,561 lots, up 1,088 lots; for alumina, they were 371,302 lots, down 9,474 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 58,850 tons, down 3,000 tons; the total alumina inventory was 219,801 tons, down 31,353 tons [2] - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,483 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 381,575 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum were 2,678 lots, up 6,026 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.09, down 0.03 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum were 53,542 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 141,289 tons, up 150 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the alumina basis was 269 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the electrolytic aluminum basis was 255 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points [2] - The alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2] - The alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.13%, down 0.10 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.97%, up 0.0084; the option call - put ratio was 0.69, down 0.0150 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March, with new - kinetic - energy industries growing rapidly [2] - China's key - city real - estate market showed a bottoming - out and stabilizing trend, with new and second - hand housing transactions increasing in the first four months [2] - Many car companies launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% with a 120 - day payment period [2] - US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, higher than all economists' expectations [2] - The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the S&P/CS20 major cities' housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [2] - The European Central Bank's Holzmann suggested postponing further interest - rate cuts until September [2] - The US and the EU may accelerate trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2] - The Guinea Alumina Company hopes to resume friendly negotiations with the Guinea government to lift restrictions on bauxite mining [2]