成本抬升支撑镍价偏强 震荡 镍周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周菲律宾镍矿受春节假期与雨季双重影响，交易清淡、供应受限，叠加矿价偏高与冶炼厂节前备库充足，需求整体疲软。印尼镍矿 市场聚焦 RKAB 开采配额审批，配额大幅收紧致冶炼厂缺矿压力凸显，叠加雨季与斋月临近扰动生产，供应增量受限。尽管印尼内贸基准价格 小幅回落，但多重供应约束支撑国内升水趋强，整体价格偏强格局未改。 ◆ 镍铁：本周高镍生铁价格维持强势，周五SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1085元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受上游挺价推动。供应端方面，上游 厂商报价依旧维持坚挺，价格支撑较强。需求端，下游刚需采购有所释放，高镍生铁成交量环比回升，带动市场价格重心上移。整体来看，上 下游博弈仍在延续，但在刚需成交的支撑下，高镍生铁价格继续走强。 ◆ 中 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍小跌，沪期镍主力月2605合约开盘报141000元/吨，盘中最高报 141870元/吨，最低价报139500元/吨，收盘报141040元/吨，下跌480元/吨，跌幅为0.34%，沪镍主力月 2605主力合约成交量368199手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月26日ccmn长江综合1#镍价129200元/吨-131300元/吨，均价报130250元/吨，较 前一日价格持平，长江现货1#镍报129200元/吨-131400元/吨，均价报130300元/吨，较前一日价格持 平，广东现货镍报131500元/吨-131900元/吨，均价报131700元/吨，较前一日价格持平。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日镍价震荡走弱，主要受宏观情绪转弱与基本面疲软现实的双重拖累。宏 观层面，海外美元虽偏弱但美联储降息预期反复，美股板块分化导致资金从工业金属流出；国内节后政 策利好已被市场消化，避险情绪有所升温。产业层面，春节后下游不锈钢及新能源领域复工复产节奏缓 慢，多以消化现有库存为主，新增订单与集中补库需求不足，"弱现实"格局对镍价形成直接压制。今日 长江现货镍价回调下跌。 镍供需现状 当前镍市呈现 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that under Indonesia's tightening nickel supply policy, the joint venture PT Weda Bay Nickel has received preliminary notification from Indonesian authorities to submit an annual work plan and budget with a production quota of 12 million tons, significantly down from previous approvals [1][3] - The initial work plan approved for 2025 was 32 million tons, which was later raised to 42 million tons, indicating a reduction of over 71% in the current year's mining quota [3][4] - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer, and the annual work plan and budget (RKAB) must be approved by the government to regulate production quotas and operational arrangements [3][4] Group 2 - The Indonesian government plans to set the total nickel mining production quota for 2026 between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is a decrease of about 30% compared to 379 million tons in 2025 [4][5] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's policy aims to "raise resource value" by tightening nickel supply to increase prices and attract more investors, especially in light of recent low nickel prices [5][6] - There is a projected gap of 30 million to 40 million tons in nickel supply for 2026, indicating a potential shift from a relatively loose market in 2025 to a systemic shortage if the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources does not approve additional quotas [5][6] Group 3 - Companies like Greenmei have responded to the tightening supply by terminating plans for capital increases in their Indonesian subsidiary, which has a production capacity of 50,000 tons of high-nickel battery precursor materials [6][7] - Greenmei has secured long-term supply agreements with major nickel suppliers in Indonesia to ensure production needs are met despite the reduced quotas [6][7] - Huayou Cobalt has also indicated that its nickel supply will be secured through joint ventures and long-term supply agreements, with market-based procurement as a supplement [6][7] Group 4 - Despite expectations of supply shortages, nickel prices have not shown a sustained upward trend recently, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping by 3.66% to 135,200 yuan per ton [8][9] - Analysts note that while nickel prices have begun to rise, the market is still experiencing a slight supply-demand gap, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices over the long term [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Indonesia's nickel mining policy significantly impacts global nickel prices, with recent announcements leading to a notable increase in nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) [1][3][23] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a nickel mining production target of 260 to 270 million tons for 2026, with major mines like Weda Bay Nickel receiving a reduced approval rate of only 30% [1][3][10] - The tightening of supply due to policy changes has led to a significant price increase, with the SHFE nickel futures contract reaching a high of 140,230 and closing at 139,360, marking a daily increase of 4.51% [1][3][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the synergistic support for nickel prices from both endogenous and exogenous factors, suggesting that the current market conditions do not warrant a bearish outlook on nickel prices [2][11] - Exogenous factors include the strengthening of nickel's financial attributes and its strategic metal positioning, while endogenous factors highlight structural shortages in the spot market and rising industry costs that limit price declines [2][11] - The overall expectation is that the main price range for SHFE nickel will stabilize between 135,000 and 140,000, with potential catalysts from future policy adjustments [2][23] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that Indonesia's nickel mining policies have been inconsistent, often leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations and prices [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming policy revisions and quota distributions, particularly in February and March, as well as the mid-year review of the RKAB [24] - The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to face challenges, with potential shortfalls if the government implements strict policies too quickly [8][10]

基本面来看，供应端。国内电镜1月产量环比再度回升，同时印尼1月MINP和冰镜产量整体维持高位，整体操供给端压力仍存。需求端仍处传统消费淡季，不锈钢 1月排产环比在利润修复下存在小幅回升，2月因春节假期影响预计排产环比将明显下滑，终端需求仍维持B对谨慎态度，整体基本面过剩维持。库存端末看，据万得 数据，昨日LME库存再度环比累积678吨至285750吨，沪镍仓单环比累积318吨至52039吨，全球整体显性库存仍处高位。 总结及策略 总结束看，银当下基本面未见边际改善，预计2月整体供需仍趋宽松，整体显性库存维持高位，对价格形成一定压制。同时，据我的钢铁网消息，印尼下修26年镍 矿配额、同时拟修订银矿内贺计价方式，使得市场对银成本及平衡预期有较为明显调整，对银价形成一定支撑。策略上，当下印尼端政策对银价形成较强支撑，但显 性库存高位或在一定程度限制向上高度，建议节前谨慎轻仓持有，中期继续关注逢低吸纳机会，后续持续关注印尼相关政策进展。 信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 印尼26年镍矿配额落地、镍价冲高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2026年2月11日， ...

信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 印尼26年镍矿配额落地、镍价冲高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2026年2月11日，受印尼批准约2.6-2.7亿吨银厂配额消息影响，沪银一度上冲超4.4%至13.994万吨。据我的钢铁网2月11日消息，能源和矿产资源部(ESDM) 发布了2026年镇工作计划租成本预算(RKAB)，ESDM部矿产和煤炭总干事Tri Winarno透露。 批准的银矿生产配额在2.6亿吨型2.7亿吨之间。考虑到2026 年仍是印尼 湿法（HPAL）新增产能集中释放朗，为维持现有及在建项目的合理开工率，我们预计2026年印尼国内银矿的理论需求量预计高于目前批准配额量2.6-2.7亿吨约 15%,对市场形成较为显著的紧缩预期。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端。国内电镜1月产量环比再度回升，同时印尼1月MINP和冰镜产量整体维持高位，整体操供给端压力仍存。需求端仍处传统消费淡季，不锈钢 1月排产环比在利润修复下存在小幅回升，2月因春节假期影响预计排产环比将明显下滑，终端需求仍维持B对谨慎态度，整体基本面过剩维持。库存端末看，据万得 数据，昨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. Although there are still macro - support and the expectation of the reduction of Indonesia's RKAB quota, the short - term nickel supply has not shown a significant decrease, and the nickel price still faces obvious real - world pressure. In the context of long - term bullish and short - term bearish, it is expected that the nickel price will oscillate widely and the center of gravity will gradually rise. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel price in February is expected to be between 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M contract is expected to be between 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In January, the nickel ore price increased significantly under the influence of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of the LME nickel price. In the Philippines, rainfall in Surigao suspended mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting the domestic ore price. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable, and the price remained unchanged; the price of pyrometallurgical ore increased to $61.4 per wet ton due to heavy rainfall, MOMS/RKAB verification, regulatory pressure, and miners' reluctance to sell. The benchmark price and premium are expected to remain strong in the future [12]. - **Ferronickel**: In January, the price of high - nickel pig iron in China remained strong. At the end of the month, the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose to 1,054 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax included). The price was mainly driven by the widening of the futures - spot price difference and the upstream's price support. Some iron plants in Indonesia switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, and traders locked in goods for arbitrage, resulting in a tight supply of market - circulating goods. Although the downstream was in the off - season, the increase in futures prices improved the profits of stainless - steel enterprises, supporting the ferronickel price. In the short term, the high - nickel pig iron price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Intermediate products**: In January, the overall situation of nickel intermediate products remained "tight + high coefficient". On the MHP side, due to the limited spot circulation volume, the slow approval process (new projects are difficult to increase production in the short term), and policy disturbances, the nickel coefficient remained at a high level. At high prices, downstream acceptance was low, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - to - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. High - grade nickel matte also had a tight supply - demand situation and a firm coefficient, but transactions were suppressed by high prices. The CIF price of auxiliary sulfur remained unchanged, and due to overseas maintenance and shipping delays, the supply was tight, and the price was likely to rise [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. At the end of the month, affected by the decline in precious - metal prices, the price dropped significantly. As of February 5, the main contract of Shanghai nickel was reported at 134,430 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase from the same period last month; the LME nickel price was reported at $17,060 per ton, a 0.3% increase from the same period last month. In terms of spot, the spot was tight in the first half of January, and the premium remained at a high level, but the spot gradually became loose in the second half of the month, and the premium dropped significantly. The market transactions were relatively cold throughout the month, and end - users were highly averse to high prices. In terms of macro, Trump nominated Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was slightly postponed, causing a significant decline in precious - metal prices. In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 68,000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 286,000 tons [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. At the end of the month, affected by the decline in precious - metal prices, the price dropped significantly. In terms of the premium, the premium of imported nickel remained stable in the first half of the month, but continued to decline in the second half of the month, indicating that the spot was gradually becoming loose. In January, the ferronickel price rose steadily, and the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel returned to a normal level. The price of nickel sulfate mainly fluctuated with the nickel price [17][19][22]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The domestic nickel ore inventory level continued to decline in January. The nickel ore price remained strong. As the nickel price increased, the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore rose in January. Currently, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen to $60.9 per ton, a $9 increase from the beginning of the month. The price of wet - process ore was relatively stable, fluctuating around $22 per ton [26][28][31]. - **Ferronickel production**: In December, the ferronickel production was stable. Due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel, it is expected that the production in January will decline month - on - month. In January, as the ferronickel price rose, the production profits of ferronickel in Indonesia and China increased significantly [34][36]. - **Intermediate products**: In December, the production of intermediate products was stable. In January, due to the significant increase in the MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel, it is expected that the production of MHP and nickel matte will increase significantly month - on - month. In January, the coefficient price of intermediate products remained at a high level [39][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: In January 2026, the national refined - nickel production was 65,000 tons, a 4,417 - ton increase compared to December 2025 [48]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, the domestic stainless - steel production was 2.8284 million tons, a 219,800 - ton decrease compared to November. The inventory level decreased to a relatively low level [51]. - **Import and export**: In January, the global refined - nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly reflected in the domestic social inventory. As of January 30, the global refined - nickel visible inventory was 354,000 tons, a 43,000 - ton increase compared to the end of December. After the nickel price rose, the production profits of smelting enterprises increased significantly [57][59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: In December, the domestic nickel - sulfate production was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [64]. - **Demand**: In December, the loading volume of ternary power batteries was 36.4 GWh, basically unchanged month - on - month; the production of precursors decreased slightly. The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and supply - demand gaps of various nickel products such as NPI, refined nickel, and nickel salts in China and other regions. The global primary nickel supply and demand have a certain gap, and the supply - demand gap of refined nickel also shows different trends in different quarters [71].

Summary of Conference Call on Nickel Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the nickel market, particularly the impact of Indonesia's nickel quota policy and its implications for supply and pricing dynamics in the industry [1][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments Nickel Quota Policy - Indonesia's nickel quota policy is tightening, with a significant reduction to 250 million tons by 2026, leading to an expected supply gap of approximately 80 million tons, which may support a rebound in nickel prices [1][4][10]. - The Indonesian government aims to stabilize nickel prices to increase fiscal revenue, with historical data indicating a price floor around $15,000 per ton [10]. Supply Dynamics - The Philippines is expected to have flexible nickel supply capabilities, potentially compensating for part of the supply gap, but a real shortfall of about 30 to 40 million tons may still exist [1][7]. - Other countries like Australia and New Caledonia can provide additional nickel supply, but only if prices remain above $20,000 per ton [1][8]. Price Trends - Nickel prices are under pressure, with $20,000 per ton identified as a critical resistance level in the short term. Long-term price trends will depend on supply-demand balance, policy changes, and macroeconomic factors [2][12]. - Current global nickel inventory exceeds 300,000 tons, but actual supply-demand balance may reflect a shortfall of 400,000 to 500,000 tons when accounting for grade fluctuations and inventory consumption [9][10]. Market Sentiment - The recent drop in silver prices has negatively impacted the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, although long-term demand growth driven by the energy revolution could support recovery [6][12]. - The nickel market has experienced weak price performance over the past year, primarily due to insufficient demand from the energy transition and competition from alternative battery technologies [2][5]. Future Outlook - The nickel price outlook is contingent on supply-demand equilibrium and policy developments. Short-term price support may arise from quota reductions and improved market sentiment, while long-term growth will depend on global economic conditions and the rise of alternative materials [5][12][24]. - The potential for cobalt pricing to be established could elevate nickel's bottom valuation by $500 to $1,000, but the upper price limit may be constrained by supply responses [1][15]. Additional Considerations - The Indonesian government's control over nickel pricing and quotas may face challenges from large enterprises with strong bargaining power, which could influence future policy effectiveness [10][18]. - The impact of high-cost projects outside Indonesia, which require sustained high nickel prices to remain viable, could also affect market dynamics if prices fall [19][21]. Conclusion - The nickel market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by regulatory changes, supply constraints, and evolving demand dynamics. Stakeholders should closely monitor policy developments and macroeconomic indicators to assess future price movements and investment opportunities in the sector [5][12][24].