结果显示，美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期5.1万的两倍多，但与此同时，8月份新增就业人 数从增长2.2万人下修2.6万，至减少0.4万人，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。 美国劳动力市场在政府关门前出现企稳迹象。 当地时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布最新非农数据。 美国9月失业率4.4%，高于预期和前值4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高。 这份非农数据原定于10月3日公布，是此次美国政府关门期间首份被推迟的重要数据。不过，由于劳工 统计局在10月1日政府关门开始前已经完成数据收集，这份报告也成为政府重新开放后最早发布的数据 之一。 美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长3.8%，预期为持平前月的3.7%。环比0.2%低于预期，涨幅较前月的 0.3%小幅收窄。 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22360 | 22420 | 22475 | 22330 | 70 | 0.31 | 67487 | -14839 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 22325 | 2243 ...

当前盘面来看，日线结构前两日黄金虽收阳线，但依然只是对此前连续下跌后的消化过程，且幅度均有 限，这就使得日线结构有形成下跌中继形态的趋向。而随着美联储基调转鹰，美政府停摆结束后，下半 周一系列迟来的数据将公布，市场对待黄金的态度也或有转向可能，即预期数据可能打压黄金走强，甚 至带动黄金进行一波深度的调整行情。日内黄金暂时还是看其围绕日均线带4100-4040之间震荡，从目 前市场情绪以及日线结构上看，结构重心没有上移便会增加行情再度下跌的风险，所以晚间非农数据若 带来利空，可能会触发或加重行情的调整趋势。而若非农数据意外利多，依照前两日的反弹状态来看， 多头信心和动能也不会很强。结合小时图走势，日内白盘时段黄金可先看区间震荡，区间上沿4125附 近，下沿4060-55附近。在此之前，4100整数关口亦有加以关注，而技术上还是更倾向于调整回修，所 以下方短支撑可扩展至4030附近，至于晚间非农数据，届时根据实际情况再做调整，但是也保留非农数 据前，市场因预期情绪影响而提前下破的可能。 来源：市场资讯 11月20日，周四，亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，目前交投于4088美元/盎司附近。周三金价冲高回 落，早盘一度狂 ...

#提示 根据美国劳工统计局最新的安排，将在11月20日（下周四）公布备受关注的9月就业形势（非农）报告。该报告原定于10月3日发布，但由于43天的政府停摆而被推迟。 https://t.co/jIZECQczvU ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with both dovish and hawkish concerns being raised [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to be released next week, with a focus on whether there will be a noticeable decline in employment [2] - After the non-farm data release, the probability of a rate cut in December may increase, supporting gold prices [2] - Gold prices have shown an upward trend, breaking through $4200, with further potential to reach $4250 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The U.S. API crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels, which is a positive indicator for oil prices [4] - The EIA short-term energy report indicates that U.S. crude oil production is at 13.86 million barrels per day, up from 13.79 million barrels per day in October [4] - Global crude oil consumption is projected to be 104.1 million barrels per day in 2025, slightly up from previous estimates [4] - There is expected to be significant inventory pressure from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, with OPEC+ reaching a production peak in December [4] - Oil prices have recently turned downward, breaking below the $58.80 support level, indicating a potential test of the $55-$56 support range [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have been fluctuating upwards over the past week but faced a setback, failing to maintain above $5.08 [6] - The support level for copper is noted at $5.01, while resistance is at $5.10 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is showing signs of further upward movement, with a narrowing volatility range and higher peaks [6] - The support level for the index is identified at 50800 [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data as a key indicator of the U.S. economy's health, influencing various financial markets including the dollar, gold, and silver [3][4][37] Group 1: Understanding Non-Farm Data - Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment changes in all sectors except agriculture, making it a crucial economic health indicator [3][4] - The NFP data is vital for assessing economic conditions, predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy, and guiding short-term trading strategies [3][4][37] Group 2: Key Components of Non-Farm Data - The three critical indicators in the NFP report are: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings [4][12] - New jobs added is the most sensitive indicator, with higher-than-expected figures indicating a strong job market and economic activity [5][6] - The unemployment rate serves as a stability signal for the labor market, with a decrease indicating improvement and an increase suggesting economic weakness [10][12] - Average hourly earnings reflect inflation and consumer spending power, with rapid growth indicating rising inflation pressures [12][13] Group 3: Analyzing the Data Combinations - A combination of strong employment, low unemployment, and fast wage growth signals a robust labor market, typically leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [18][19] - Conversely, weak employment, high unemployment, and slow wage growth suggest economic slowdown, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [20][21] - Mixed signals, such as strong employment with rising unemployment, indicate market volatility and uncertainty [22][23] Group 4: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - Strong NFP data typically results in a rising dollar index, while weak data leads to a declining dollar [24] - Gold and silver prices generally move inversely to the dollar, with strong NFP data causing short-term declines in these precious metals [25] - U.S. Treasury yields react similarly, with strong data leading to rising yields and falling bond prices [26] Group 5: Practical Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for NFP data by observing market expectations and setting strict stop-loss levels to manage risks [29][30] - Following the data release, it is recommended to wait for market stabilization before entering trades, confirming the direction of the initial market reaction [31][32] Group 6: Integrating Other Economic Indicators - NFP data should not be analyzed in isolation; it should be considered alongside other indicators like ADP employment data and initial jobless claims for a comprehensive view [35] - Establishing a systematic approach to track related economic indicators can enhance predictive accuracy regarding NFP outcomes [35]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has not negatively impacted the dollar, which has risen, leading to declines in gold and silver prices. The focus is now on the upcoming ADP employment data rather than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision or the government shutdown [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell from around 4000 to a low of 3930, indicating a continuation of the previous downward trend. The market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about further declines [2][4]. - The current outlook for gold is characterized by a low-level consolidation rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend. The technical indicators suggest a potential for continued weakness, with the daily chart showing a bearish trend below the Bollinger middle band [4]. - A potential rebound is anticipated if gold can stabilize above 3975, with targets set at 4000 and 4050. Conversely, if it breaks below 3930, further declines to 3900 or 3880 may occur [5]. Silver Market Analysis - Domestic silver prices also experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai gold reaching a low of 907. The recommendation is to avoid chasing long positions and instead consider buying around 915 for Shanghai gold and 905 for domestic silver [5]. - International silver prices fell but remained around 47.2. A potential rebound is possible if prices can stabilize above 48, with targets set at 49.5 [5]. Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have shown minor fluctuations, maintaining around 60. The bullish sentiment remains, with a focus on whether the price can break above last week's high of 63, which could lead to a target of 66 [6]. - Domestic fuel oil prices have remained stable, with a potential upward target of 3000 if bullish momentum continues. If not, adjustments may occur, with support seen around 2700 [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data release for gold trading, highlighting its impact on market volatility and investment strategies [1][2]. Pre-NFP Strategies - Understanding the relationship between NFP data and gold prices is crucial; weaker NFP data typically leads to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices, while stronger data has the opposite effect [2]. - The company provides a "NFP Preview" report on its website before the data release, outlining expected figures and potential gold price movements to help investors set psychological expectations [2]. - Establishing a clear "bottom line" strategy is essential, including defining maximum acceptable losses and response strategies for sudden market reversals [2]. - The company's app offers convenient order placement features, allowing investors to set buy and sell orders based on predicted price ranges, starting from small trade sizes of 0.01 lots [2]. During NFP Release - The first 30 minutes post-NFP release, referred to as the "golden 30 minutes," often sees significant price fluctuations, making quick trading responses vital for profit locking [4]. - The trading system utilized by the company boasts an order execution delay of less than 0.1 seconds, maintaining a high order matching success rate of 99.8% even during volatile market conditions [4]. - Strict adherence to stop-loss and take-profit rules is emphasized, with the first executed order after data release being critical for trading decisions [4]. Post-NFP Analysis - After the NFP event, the company offers trading summary services, including NFP reviews, to help investors analyze their performance and prepare for future events [5]. - Historical data indicates that when NFP job additions fall below market expectations by 50,000 or more, gold prices tend to rise by an average of $18.6 within four hours post-release; conversely, if job additions exceed expectations by the same margin, gold prices typically drop by an average of $14.3 [5]. Investment Philosophy - The company advocates for transforming complex market fluctuations into clear execution steps, positioning NFP nights as opportunities rather than risks [6]. - The core investment philosophy emphasizes converting uncertainty into manageable operational systems, underscoring the importance of choosing a reliable trading platform for gold investments [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reaching new highs, while the Nasdaq index declined due to a pullback in technology stocks [2][4] - The Dow Jones index rose by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points, and the S&P 500 index increased by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points [2] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 0.67%, Amazon down 1.30%, Tesla down 1.42%, and Facebook down 2.27% [5][6] - In contrast, Apple, Microsoft, and Google saw slight increases of 0.35%, 0.31%, and 0.01% respectively [5][6] Group 3: Automotive Sector Developments - Reports indicate that Trump is considering significant tariff reductions for cars assembled in the US, positively impacting automotive stocks [5][7] - Ford shares rose by 3.6%, Toyota increased by 2.10%, and General Motors gained 1.29% following the news [7] Group 4: Chinese Market Trends - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a cumulative increase of 2.58% for the week but fell by 1.15% on Friday, with declines in both automotive and internet sectors [8] - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers such as NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto experienced declines of 2.66%, 3.09%, and 3.99% respectively [8][9] Group 5: Corporate Governance Changes - Berkshire Hathaway has officially separated the roles of Chairman and CEO in preparation for Greg Abel to succeed Warren Buffett [16][17] - This change was approved by the board on September 30, marking a significant shift in the company's governance structure [16]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, influenced by comments from the Dallas Fed President regarding cautious interest rate cuts, while market expectations for a rate cut in October remain high [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 2, gold opened at $3865.86 per ounce, reached a high of $3896.74, and then fell to a low of $3819.28, closing at $3856.15, with a daily range of $77.46 and a decline of 0.25% [1]. - The overall trend indicates that gold has not broken below the 5-day moving average support, suggesting a potential upward movement unless it falls below the $3800 mark [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of non-farm payroll data, which may be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, but expectations remain that the data will be favorable for gold prices [5]. - The ADP report indicated a larger-than-expected decline, which could also support a positive outlook for gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows that gold has tested the mid-line support for the fourth time since its rise last year, indicating a strong bullish trend, although there is a risk of a pullback if it closes below $3815 [7]. - The daily chart reflects a potential bearish outlook due to two consecutive days of topping patterns, but as long as it remains above the 10-day moving average, the bullish perspective is maintained [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3840 and $3815, while resistance levels are at $3875 and $3895 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.55 and $46.10, with resistance at $47.70 and $47.90 [10].