证 券 研 究 报 告 拼多多（PDD）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 拐点显现，持续投入长期质量建设 目标价：139.04 美元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报： 2025Q3 实现收入 1,082.8 亿元，同比+9%；经营利 润 250.3 亿元，同比+3%；Non-GAAP 经营利润 270.8 亿元，同比+1%；Non- GAAP 归属于普通股东净利润 313.8 亿元，同比+14%。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 393,836 | 430,666 | 495,501 | 557,627 | | 同比增速(%) | 59.0% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 12.5% | | 归属于普通股东净利润(百万元) | 112,435 | 106,031 | 129,743 | 155,149 | | 同比增速(%) | 87.3% | -5.7% | 22.4% | 19 ...

在多家机构的研报中，中国产业发展持续涌现新亮点。制造业与出口展现出强劲韧性，消费与公共服务支出则逐步成为经济增长的重要引擎。 近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经济将延续稳健增长态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 外资机构普遍预测，明年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026 年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计2026年国内将施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧性。 光大证券首席宏观分析师 赵格格：在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政策工具箱储备充 足。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家 菲利普·怀亚特：比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补贴，面向消费者的补贴；对首套房购房者的支持等， 这些都属于"定向支持"。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力，提振出口的决心和能力 ...

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) is undergoing a transformation characterized by systematic management and structural adjustments, led by Chairman Gu Shu, which is reshaping market perceptions of its value [4][5][19]. Management Style and Governance - Gu Shu's management style is marked by rationality and systematic decision-making, reflecting a shift in ABC's internal governance since he took office in 2020 [6][9]. - Under Gu Shu, ABC has enhanced the operational autonomy of its branches, improving responsiveness and competitiveness in various regional markets [10][12]. Performance and Financial Metrics - ABC's stock price has surged nearly 65% this year, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization close to 3 trillion [4][15]. - As of Q3 2025, ABC's personal loan balance reached 9.33 trillion, growing by 5.6% year-to-date, with retail banking increasingly contributing to overall revenue [11][12]. Strategic Focus Areas - The bank is shifting its focus from traditional lending to high-quality growth, emphasizing retail finance, small and micro loans, green finance, and inclusive finance [11][15]. - ABC's green loan balance has surpassed 5.8 trillion, with significant investments in renewable energy and environmental protection [11]. Digital Transformation - ABC has accelerated its digital transformation, with technology investments exceeding 3% of revenue, enhancing credit approval processes and customer profiling [13]. - The number of registered personal mobile banking users has exceeded 500 million, with active users in rural areas growing by 8.6% year-on-year [13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - ABC is viewed as a stable investment with high dividends and low volatility, reflecting its strong capital adequacy and risk management capabilities [13][19]. - The bank aims to transition from being a "provider" of rural finance to an "ecosystem builder," focusing on technology empowerment, rural financial foundations, and green transformation [15][19].

Core Insights - The fashion industry is shifting from aggressive channel expansion and price competition to a focus on quality growth and brand value, as indicated by the keywords "steady growth" and "stock competition" [2] - E-commerce platforms are expected to leverage their data capabilities to enhance brand management and operational quality, especially during peak sales events like Double 11 [2][4] - Brands that emphasize originality and cater to niche markets are showing higher growth potential during this year's Double 11 [4] Group 1: Market Trends - The first phase of Double 11 saw Tmall's apparel sales exceed 50% of the total market, with a growth rate of 15.8%, leading the industry [2] - Brands like Uniqlo, Bosideng, and Snow Flying achieved significant sales milestones, indicating strong market demand and recovering consumer confidence [4] - The focus on "long-term value" and "high-quality growth" is becoming crucial for fashion brands to resist homogenization and enhance brand loyalty [4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more rational, prioritizing value over price, especially in the apparel sector where emotional satisfaction and individual expression are key [11] - The rise of domestic luxury brands reflects a shift towards quality and design, with brands like Songmont achieving over 10 million in sales within the first 10 minutes of Double 11 [11][18] - The trend of "cloud down jackets" emerged from consumer demand for lightweight, warm, and stylish options, showcasing the importance of trend alignment in product development [12][18] Group 3: Brand Strategies - Tmall's approach includes providing brands with trend insights and resources to optimize product launches and marketing strategies, enhancing the likelihood of success [17] - Successful brands during Double 11 are those that have consistently focused on quality and innovation over the past year, leading to significant sales growth [23] - The collaboration between brands and platforms is essential for creating trends, with a focus on shared insights and consumer feedback driving product development [15][16] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The evolving consumer landscape presents opportunities for brands to innovate and capture new market segments, as consumer preferences become more nuanced [28] - Tmall aims to be a steadfast partner for brands, helping them identify trends and create high-quality digital content that resonates with consumers [29] - The continuous refinement of products and brand values is crucial for long-term success, beyond just peak sales events [29]

Core Insights - The 2025 "Double Eleven" event has evolved from a simple sales competition to a battleground for brand strength, particularly evident in the gold and jewelry sector [1] - During the event, Zhou Li Fu's e-commerce subsidiary achieved a total shipment value of 287 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.28% [1] - Zhou Li Fu's stock price has risen over 28% since October 23, reflecting positive market sentiment towards its performance [1] Group 1: Performance in Context - Zhou Li Fu's performance must be viewed against the backdrop of a structural adjustment in the gold consumption market, which is experiencing a complex situation of "ice and fire" [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% to 682.73 tons, with gold jewelry consumption dropping significantly by 32.50% [2] - Conversely, investment products like gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase in consumption, indicating a shift towards gold as an asset allocation tool rather than a decorative item [2] Group 2: Profitability and Growth - Zhou Li Fu achieved a comprehensive gross margin of 22.05%, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points year-on-year, defying the industry norm of price cuts during promotions [3] - From January to October 2025, Zhou Li Fu's e-commerce revenue grew by 32%, while net profit surged by 71%, with a net profit margin exceeding 8% [3] - The significant growth in net profit relative to revenue indicates the company's strong operational capabilities in both revenue generation and cost management [3] Group 3: Product and Channel Strategy - Zhou Li Fu's success is attributed to systematic innovations in product matrix and channel layout, which have built its core competitiveness [4] - The brand has developed a differentiated product matrix, including the main brand "Zhou Li Fu," "CHAOJIN潮金," and "FENS," catering to various consumer segments and mitigating market risks [4] - The "CHAOJIN潮金" brand targets the Gen Z market with trendy, personalized gold products, while "FENS" focuses on high-end consumers with 18K gold and diamond jewelry [4] Group 4: Online Channel Optimization - The increasing online penetration of gold jewelry consumption has been a key factor in Zhou Li Fu's success during the Double Eleven event [5] - The company capitalized on trends by establishing official flagship stores on major platforms and utilizing exclusive live-streaming promotions to enhance conversion rates [6] - Zhou Li Fu's robust online customer service and after-sales support have addressed consumer trust issues regarding gold products [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The brand's core competitiveness is shifting from price competition to value competition, focusing on consumer-centric strategies [7] - Zhou Li Fu's approach of differentiating products, optimizing channels, and innovating operational models positions it well for long-term growth [7] - The current consumption downturn presents both challenges and opportunities for the gold jewelry industry, with brands that adapt to changing demands likely to gain market share [7]

Core Insights - The source of uncertainty in asset returns is influenced by the trend of "de-globalization," which continues to affect economic fundamentals and is gradually incorporated into valuation assumptions [3][10] - Asset diversification is considered a "free lunch" in asset allocation, with its value derived from the correlation between different assets [4][17] - In the current uncertain environment, investment strategies should focus on anchoring growth through income-generating assets, leveraging to enhance returns, and recognizing the ongoing macro narrative surrounding gold [5][21][38] Source of Uncertainty in Asset Returns - The "de-globalization" trend has emerged and will continue to impact economic fundamentals, with the potential for structural risks and profit expectations in certain sectors [10] - The internal macro environment is facing risks of slowing economic growth and a transition in economic drivers, moving from a high-growth phase to a medium-low growth phase [12] - The changes in Sharpe ratios across different asset classes indicate varying performance and risk profiles, with a notable downward trend in bond yield spreads since 2011 [14][15] Asset Diversification - The essence of asset diversification lies in investing in different asset classes to reduce overall portfolio risk while balancing returns, with the underlying value stemming from asset correlations [18] - Historical performance data shows significant fluctuations in quarterly returns across different years, highlighting the importance of diversification in managing risk [18] Income-Generating Assets - Income-generating assets, such as bonds and high-dividend stocks, provide predictable cash flows, enhance liquidity, and can hedge against inflation, making them essential in a diversified portfolio [23][21] - High-dividend strategies focus on stable cash flows and valuation recovery, with companies in mature industries typically exhibiting a higher propensity for dividends [26][28] Leveraging for Growth - The core value of introducing leverage in a portfolio is to enhance expected returns while maintaining overall risk balance, particularly in a risk parity framework [34] - Leveraging can amplify returns from low-risk assets without disrupting the risk contribution structure of the overall portfolio [34] High-Quality Growth - High-quality growth is identified as a key driver for the new phase of economic growth, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and productivity improvements [35][37] - The focus on new quality production capabilities aims to enhance total factor productivity, with specific attention to sectors such as digital economy, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy [36] Gold as a Strategic Asset - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the questioning of the dollar's safety have led to increased global demand for gold as a risk diversification strategy [38][39] - Historical data indicates a significant rise in gold reserves among global economies since 2008, reflecting a shift away from dollar dependency [40]

Group 1: Uniqlo's Market Strategy - Uniqlo's China market director emphasizes the importance of comfort alongside fashion in consumer preferences [1] - The brand is expanding its product categories and has established a presence in over 200 cities in China [1] - Uniqlo is adapting its localized business strategies based on consumer feedback, rather than focusing on specific regions [1] Group 2: Cathay Pacific's Cargo Demand - Cathay Pacific anticipates strong demand in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a peak season for air cargo [3] - The airline plans to adjust its network to focus on high-demand routes in Southeast Asia and China [3] - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge through nine specialized cargo solutions [3] Group 3: Michelin's Investment Focus - Michelin's future investments in China will focus on capacity upgrades, localized innovation, and diversified business expansion [4] - The company has been operating in China for 36 years and is committed to aligning with local market demands and carbon neutrality goals [4] - The expansion of the Shanghai factory and sustainable tire development reflect foreign investment confidence in China's high-quality growth [4] Group 4: LEGO's Product Launch - LEGO showcased five globally launched new products at the China International Import Expo, targeting various age groups [5] - The company has been investing in brand building, retail innovation, and sustainable development since its first participation in 2018 [5] - The expo serves as a platform for LEGO to connect with Chinese families and enhance its market presence [5] Group 5: Chow Tai Fook's Retail Strategy - Chow Tai Fook has reduced its retail network by 611 stores in six months, with a significant impact in the mainland market [6][7] - The closure primarily involves underperforming franchise stores, reflecting a strategic optimization of the channel structure [7] - This move aims to improve overall efficiency and prepare for a focus on high-quality locations and enhanced store performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Leading gold brands are shifting their focus from physical store expansion to enhancing e-commerce channels due to declining terminal sales and changing consumer behavior [2][3]. Group 1: Store Network and Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a reduction in its retail network, with over 70% of its retail points being franchise stores, totaling 6,041 locations, down from 6,644 as of March 31, representing a decrease of 603 stores [2]. - The most significant decline occurred in the mainland market, where retail points fell to 5,663, a reduction of 611 stores since March [2]. - The company continues to close underperforming stores while selectively opening new ones with higher productivity [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The shift from expansion to quality improvement poses challenges, including short-term revenue fluctuations, employee placement costs, and restructuring relationships with franchisees [3]. - The closure of stores primarily involves franchise locations, indicating a strategic adjustment to optimize channel structure and enhance overall operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: E-commerce Growth and Consumer Behavior - High gold prices, weak consumer demand, and intensified competition have pressured the profitability of inefficient stores, leading franchisees to consider exiting the market [4]. - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have adopted "high-quality growth" strategies, focusing on single-store efficiency rather than quantity expansion [4]. - E-commerce channels are experiencing significant growth, reflecting a shift in consumer trust from physical stores to brand official flagship stores, particularly for standardized products and IP collaborations [4]. - While e-commerce growth is promising, there remain essential in-store experiences such as trying on products, value retention, and after-sales service that cannot be replaced, leading brands to pursue an "online drive + offline experience" integrated approach rather than large-scale store closures [4].

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of approximately 54.65 million yuan, with the pig farming segment contributing about 61.5 million yuan in profit, while the poultry segment incurred a loss of 7 million yuan and the waterfowl segment a loss of approximately 2 million yuan [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the net profit was reported at 19.15 million yuan, with the pig farming segment generating a profit of 15 million yuan, and the poultry segment reaching a breakeven point [2][4] Production and Sales - The company sold a total of 2,767,249 pigs (including live pigs, fresh products, and piglets) and 9.45 billion chickens (including live chickens, fresh products, and cooked food) in the first three quarters [2][4] - The sales of piglets are expected to reach approximately 2 million heads in Q4 2025 due to established external sales channels [3] Cost Management - The production cost for piglets in Q3 2025 decreased to around 260 yuan per head, with a meat pig comprehensive breeding cost of 6.2 yuan per jin [5][6] - The comprehensive cost for meat chickens was reported at 5.8 yuan per jin, influenced by rising feed prices [7] Risk Mitigation Strategies - The company maintained a debt ratio of 49.4% by the end of Q3 2025, focusing on stable operations and reducing financial risks [9] - Despite facing temporary losses in the pig farming sector, the poultry segment performed well, providing a buffer against market risks [9] Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 19.9 billion yuan, which accounts for 38% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters [11] - A stock buyback program is in place, with a total of 900 million yuan allocated for repurchase from September 2024 to September 2025 [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-quality growth, aiming to enhance its breeding capabilities and optimize its product structure, with a target for piglet sales to account for 5%-10% of total pig sales [16][17] - Plans to expand into international markets are underway, prioritizing the export of poultry products, followed by pork and duck products [21] Brand Development - The company is launching new brands, including "Wens Food," "Wens Livestock," and "Wens Ingredients," to better segment its product offerings [14] - Efforts to promote the cultural significance of Chinese native chickens are ongoing, including partnerships and events to enhance market understanding [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 of RMB 130.9 billion and RMB 64.63 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.3% and 6.2% [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was RMB 39.81 billion, with net profit at RMB 19.22 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and 0.5% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing market confidence through refined operational strategies and governance, alongside expanding its overseas market presence [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-Q3 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was RMB 110.51 billion and RMB 17.88 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.3% for Moutai liquor but a decline of 7.8% for series liquor [2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 91.5%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 remained stable at 49.4% [3]. Future Projections - The report projects revenue for 2025-2027 to be RMB 185.53 billion, RMB 202.70 billion, and RMB 221.67 billion, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 9.0%, and 9.4% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are adjusted to RMB 73.39, RMB 80.01, and RMB 87.54, respectively [4][10]. - The target price is set at RMB 1,920.24, based on a 24x PE ratio for 2026 [4][6].