戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线：（8.11-8.19），权益类资产明显跑赢大宗商品与债券，投资者策略上倾向继 续增加权益风险敞口，而债市则保持防守与等待。 从宏观层面看，全球市场风险偏好中枢波动抬升，但有边际回落 扰动需要关注。国际市场方面，前期美俄会谈促进风险偏好回升，同时通胀数据披露后市场对美联储9月降息的预期 抬升，但8月19日晚间受本周五鲍威尔将在全球央行年会讲话的避险预期抢跑影响，美国市场的降息预期有所回落， 市场有较大震荡，同时受MIT的AI泡沫报告与Altman的AI泡沫言论影响，美股科技板块有较大回撤，市场情绪有边 际恶化倾向。国内市场方面，当前市场在外部环境较缓和背景下，视线更多集中在居民"存款搬家"现象下国内权益 市场的优异表现。国内"反内卷"政策成效逐步显现，加之关税忧虑略有缓解、地缘冲突缓和迹象，提振了整体风险 偏好，股债跷跷板行情演绎，"存款搬家"进入股市大背景下，国内债市行情整体偏弱。另外，提醒关注本周香港 Hibor利率快速回升使得港币流动性收紧及港币兑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector has shown remarkable performance since the second half of 2024, driven by trends in the AI industry and strong demand for computing power, with the STAR Market Chip Index achieving a return of 71.86% over the past year [1][9]. Group 1: STAR Market Chip Index Performance - The STAR Market Chip Index (000685) was launched in June 2022 and includes stocks related to semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [2]. - As of August 8, 2024, the STAR Market Chip Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index and other representative indices of the STAR Market, such as the STAR 50 and STAR 100 [9]. - The index consists of 50 constituent stocks, with the top ten weighted stocks including Cambricon, SMIC, and Haiguang Information, covering various segments of the semiconductor industry [5][9]. Group 2: ETF Performance and Market Statistics - There are currently eight STAR Market Chip ETFs with a total scale of approximately 37.57 billion yuan, with the top three being from Harvest Fund, Huaan Fund, and Huitianfu Fund [1][17]. - The average annual return of five STAR Market Chip ETFs established before 2025 is 11% [1]. - The most liquid ETF, Harvest STAR Market Chip ETF, has an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.9 billion yuan this year [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of renewed recession concerns in the US and tariff disruptions on global risk assets, leading to a decline in industrial metals and equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries have risen [3][4] - The article discusses the "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response for asset allocation in a fragile era, emphasizing the need for a diversified approach that includes Chinese government bonds, US short-term Treasuries, and high-dividend stocks in China, among others [4][11] - It notes that the Chinese risk assets have outperformed those in the US, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its upward trend supported by liquidity easing [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines key economic data and events scheduled from August 10 to August 24, including important indicators such as the US CPI and Eurozone GDP [12][15] - It provides a detailed tracking of global asset dynamics, indicating a widening SOFR-OIS spread and a decline in the US financial conditions index, reflecting a tightening of overall financial conditions in the US [18][20] - The article mentions that the US consumer confidence index has shown fluctuations, which typically correlates with increased volatility in US equities [28][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated performance of global major asset classes, with Chinese equity assets leading the rise and industrial metals experiencing a broad increase due to domestic policies and infrastructure plans [3][4] - The "global barbell strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of Chinese interest rate bonds, US short-term treasuries, and high-quality growth stocks [4][8] - Recent data indicates a widening SOFR-OIS spread, reflecting tightening liquidity in the US repo market, and a decline in the US financial conditions index, suggesting a deterioration in overall financial conditions [4][14] Group 2 - The tactical approach suggests that the current market resembles a micro-version of the 2014-2015 A-share market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies, with domestic capital driving the market [8][29] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators, such as China's industrial enterprise profits and the US ADP employment change, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [11][12] - The focus on high-quality growth stocks aligns with the trend of residents reallocating savings into the stock market, favoring thematic investments that meet high-quality development directions [4][8]

Introduction - The current global environment is characterized by a "chaotic period" as the old order is being disrupted and the new order is not yet clear [3][11] - The recommended asset allocation strategy is a "global barbell strategy" that is anti-fragile and based on an all-weather approach [3][11] 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, facing three major challenges: the emergence of Deepseek affecting US-China tech narratives, concerns over fiscal tightening due to Musk's Doge initiative, and uncertainties from tariff policies [3][12] - Non-US assets have generally outperformed US assets in the first half of 2025 [12] Winning Probability - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the US and non-US regions likely to converge [15] - Factors causing marginal changes include policy uncertainty damaging market confidence and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [24] - The overall economic headwinds for the US may ease compared to the first half of the year, but recession risks remain [44] Odds - US assets are currently overvalued compared to non-US assets, indicating asymmetric risks [5][45] - The implied risk pricing for US assets does not adequately reflect the potential for recession, suggesting a need for caution [45][46] Outlook for 2025H2: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation should still follow the anti-fragile "barbell strategy," focusing on three core contradictions: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [72][75] - The strategy involves investing in a majority of low-risk assets while allocating a smaller portion to high-risk, high-reward assets [75] - Specific recommendations include over-allocating to Chinese government bonds and emerging markets in Southeast Asia, while maintaining a cautious stance on US equities due to potential volatility [75][88][104]

Global Macro Trends - Recent performance of global asset classes has shown divergence, with a significant rebound in the US dollar index and a general decline in commodities, while emerging markets have outperformed developed markets [3][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving global asset allocation landscape, emphasizing the need for long-term investors to understand the reshaping of world order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [4][11]. - The strategy is influenced by three underlying logics: increasing de-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry. The focus remains on an all-weather strategy that adjusts for asymmetrical pricing risks [4][11]. - A statistical analysis of historical asset volatility during US recession periods has been conducted, ranking assets by their volatility amplification factors. The order is as follows: Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, Hang Seng Tech, US Treasuries, Gold, China Bonds, Bitcoin, Convertible Bonds, and A-share dividends [4][11]. - Adjustments to asset allocation weights have been made based on the revised volatility factors, increasing the weight of Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while decreasing the weight of Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [4][11]. Economic Indicators and Data - The US financial conditions index has shown improvement, indicating a relaxation in overall financial conditions [5][17]. - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index has recorded positive values, suggesting that economic data has been exceeding market expectations [5][19]. - There is an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the US, which has negatively impacted consumer confidence [5][28]. - Historical trends indicate that deteriorating consumer confidence in the US often leads to increased volatility in the stock market [5][31]. Upcoming Economic Events - A calendar of significant upcoming economic data releases and events has been outlined, including consumer confidence indices, interest rate decisions, and GDP reports from various regions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition period between the old and new global order, emphasizing the need for a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation in response to the current chaotic environment. It highlights that the key to success in the second half of 2025 lies in understanding the win rates for Chinese assets and the odds for U.S. assets [3][11]. Group 1: 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, challenged by three main factors: the emergence of Deepseek affecting U.S.-China tech narratives, concerns over U.S. fiscal tightening led by Musk's Doge initiative, and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs increasing uncertainty around U.S. dollar hegemony [3][12]. - Non-U.S. assets outperformed U.S. assets in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12]. Group 2: Win Rates - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions likely to converge [15]. - The introduction of tariffs and the subsequent easing of these measures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding U.S. economic performance, with potential recession risks still looming [19][44]. Group 3: Odds - U.S. assets are currently overvalued compared to non-U.S. assets, indicating asymmetric risks that investors should be cautious of [5][45]. - The article warns that the pricing of U.S. assets does not adequately reflect the risks of a potential recession, suggesting that the market is underestimating the structural risks associated with U.S. economic policies [46][94]. Group 4: Outlook for 2025H2 - The global asset allocation strategy should continue to focus on the "global barbell strategy," which balances low-risk assets with high-risk, high-reward investments [72][75]. - The article identifies three core contradictions driving the new investment paradigm: rising anti-globalization, debt cycle misalignment, and the accelerating trend of AI industries [9][72]. - Specific asset classes recommended include Chinese government bonds, gold, and equities from emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing global economic shifts [88][104].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Securities Information Co., Ltd. announced revisions to the compilation method of the ChiNext Composite Index, introducing a monthly removal mechanism for stocks under risk warning and an ESG negative removal mechanism for stocks rated C or below [1] - After the revisions, the ChiNext Composite Index includes 1,316 sample stocks, covering 95% of ChiNext listed companies and 98% of total market capitalization, with high-tech enterprises accounting for 92% and strategic emerging industries for 79% [1] - The revised index is expected to have greater long-term investment value, as it encompasses a wide range of stocks, including leading companies and those with significant growth potential, reflecting a more elastic characteristic [1] Group 2 - The Invesco Great Wall ChiNext Composite Index Enhanced Fund has achieved a net value growth rate of 68.33% since its establishment on May 25, 2020, significantly outperforming the ChiNext Index (6.99%) and the ChiNext Composite Index (32.85%) [2] - The AI industry trend is seen as a supportive factor for the ChiNext Composite Index, alongside anticipated regulatory measures aimed at deepening reforms in the ChiNext market to provide better institutional support for innovation and growth [2]

Core Insights - The report suggests that the market performance has decoupled from earnings since September last year, resembling the period from 2013 to 2015. In the early stages of PPI decline, negative impacts on earnings dominated, but as PPI remained negative for a sufficient duration, policy and liquidity factors improved, leading to a decoupling of market performance from earnings [2][10][11] - The current macro-level asset shortage may exceed that of 2014. If the bull market is driven by liquidity and policy rather than earnings, the logic of asset scarcity becomes more significant. The current 10-year government bond yield is about half of that in 2014, and the rate of decline over the past two years is comparable to that of 2014 [3][20][22] - Insurance funds have already impacted the market, and there is potential for increased inflow from household funds. Since the pandemic in 2020, household deposits have risen rapidly, but their inflow into the stock market has been limited due to the lack of a stable profit-making effect. With the market transitioning from bearish to bullish since September last year, conditions for accelerated household fund inflow are gradually being met [22][24] Market Changes - The report indicates that the A-share market has seen significant increases in major indices, with the ChiNext 50 rising by 2.65% and the ChiNext Index by 2.36%. In contrast, sectors like coal and banking have experienced declines [38][42] - Global stock markets have shown mixed performance, with indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 performing well, while indices in Brazil and Mexico have declined [39] - The report notes a net inflow of 241.19 billion yuan from southbound funds (Hong Kong Stock Connect) this week, indicating strong market interest [40][48]

Core Viewpoint - The price of DDR4 memory has surged nearly 100% in the past month due to supply constraints caused by manufacturers announcing production halts, leading to market speculation and stockpiling [1][3][13]. Price Surge - DDR4 prices have increased significantly, with the average price for DDR4 16G 3200 rising from $3.97 in early April to over $6 by the end of May, marking an increase of over 200% in less than a quarter [3][6]. - In the Shenzhen market, DDR4 16G products are now priced above 250 RMB, with some nearing 300 RMB, while DDR4 32G products exceed 500 RMB [7][11]. - The rapid price increase was particularly noted in late June, where some products saw a price jump of around 70 RMB within a few days [7][8]. Market Dynamics - After the initial surge, DDR4 prices have stabilized at a high level, with no significant signs of decline, despite some fluctuations [8][11]. - Retailers suggest that consumers wait if their demand is not urgent, as the future price trajectory remains uncertain [8]. Supply Constraints - The primary driver of the price increase is the confirmed production halts by major manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, which are transitioning to new production processes [13]. - The expected reduction in DDR4 supply is anticipated to create a persistent shortage, particularly affecting LPDDR4X used in mobile devices, with a forecasted supply gap of 15% to 20% [14]. Opportunities for Domestic Manufacturers - The reduction in DDR4 production by overseas manufacturers presents an opportunity for domestic DRAM manufacturers to increase their market share [15]. - Companies like Jiangbolong are adapting their strategies in response to the price increases and are focusing on enhancing their production capabilities [15]. Transition to DDR5 - As DDR4 prices rise, there is an expected acceleration in demand for DDR5 memory, driven by the AI industry's needs [13][15]. - Companies involved in DDR5 memory interface chips are seeing increased orders, indicating a shift in market focus towards next-generation memory solutions [15].