2025.06. 17 本文字数：2460，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 6月以来，债券市场回暖显著，带动债基投资热度攀升，发行与存量市场双双升温。Wind数据显示， 截至16日，99%的债券型基金实现月内正收益，其中有超过四分之三的产品净值于月内创下历史新 高。 业绩修复推动市场配置热情高涨，资金端反馈迅速。一方面，惠升和盛纯债等产品迅速达募并提前结 募，新发债基市场持续升温；另一方面，债券ETF单月净流入规模已达319.79亿元，超过4月全月水 平，资金正加速布局。与此同时，部分债基启动限购模式，近一个月内至少127只产品公告限制大额 申购。 第一财经从部分基金公司处了解到，债市情绪回暖驱动配置需求改善，线上申购量提升明显，并正为 冲刺半年度规模目标积极行动。在业内人士看来，当前基本面条件对债市依然相对友好，可以继续把 握短期资金扰动带来的窄波动之下的交易机会。 "短期看，基本面在趋势上仍利多债市。"招商基金投研人士对第一财经表示，央行主动呵护之下资金 波动幅度可控，10年期国债收益率或延续窄区间震荡行情，跨季后理财规模回升或带动短端配置行 情，大行增持短债力度仍强，央行重启买债可能性仍存 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Release Date: June 17, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Major Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 16, 2025, yields varied across countries, e.g., the US was 4.448%, the UK was 4.532%, and China was 1.644%. - Changes in yields differed in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.047%, a one - week change of - 0.028%, a one - month change of - 0.032%, and a one - year change of 0.172%. [3] 2.2 Major Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - As of June 16, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.901%, and Germany was 1.838%. - Yield changes also varied over different time frames. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.040%, a one - week change of - 0.020%, a one - month change of - 0.060%, and a one - year change of - 0.920%. [3] 2.3 Dollar Exchange Rates against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On June 16, 2025, exchange rates and their changes were presented. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.493 with a latest change of - 0.92%. - Changes over one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were also provided. The dollar - to - Brazilian real had a one - week change of - 1.19%, a one - month change of - 3.05%, and a one - year change of 3.66%. [3] 2.4 Stock Indexes and Credit Bond Indexes - Stock indexes of major economies and emerging economies showed different performances. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - week change of 0.04%, a one - month change of - 3.29%, and a one - year change not given. - Credit bond indexes also had their respective changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.15%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of 0.86%, and a one - year change of 4.61%. [3] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - A - shares closed at 3388.73 with a 0.35% increase, the CSI 300 closed at 3873.80 with a 0.25% increase, etc. [4] 3.2 Valuation - PE (TTM) values were provided for different indexes, such as 12.78 for the CSI 300, 10.91 for the SSE 50, etc., along with their环比 changes. [4] 3.3 Risk Premium - Risk premium data and their环比 changes were presented for some indexes, e.g., the S&P 500 had a risk premium of - 0.55 with a环比 change of - 0.09. [4] 3.4 Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows were given for different markets, such as 122.23 for A - shares and - 595.70 for the 5 - day average. [4] 3.5 Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and their环比 changes were provided for different markets, e.g., 12150.76 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets with a环比 change of - 2521.21. [4] 3.6 Basis and Spread - Basis and spread data were given for stock index futures, such as - 4.00 for the IF basis with a - 0.10% spread. [4] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) were presented, all with 0.00% changes on the given day. - Money market fund rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were also provided, e.g., R001 was 1.4450% with a - 13.00 BP change. [5]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown significant recovery since June, leading to increased investment in bond funds, with 99% of bond funds achieving positive returns in the month [1][2] - Over three trading days, 2448 bond fund products reached historical net value highs, representing over 60% of the total, with 76% of bond funds achieving this milestone within the month [3] - The inflow of funds into bond ETFs has accelerated, with a net inflow of 319.79 billion yuan in the first half of June, surpassing the total inflow for April [5] Group 2 - The demand for bond funds has improved, with many funds initiating purchase limits due to increased interest, as at least 127 bond funds announced restrictions on large purchases [3][5] - Fund companies are focusing on marketing bond funds, particularly pure bond products, to meet their semi-annual scale targets [5] - The current market sentiment is favorable for bonds, with expectations of continued low interest rates and potential opportunities for buying if short-term rates rise due to concerns about bank liabilities [6][7]

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market [1] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of -0.01% in May, with a year-to-date return of 0.41% [3][5] - The Chinese government bonds and policy bank bonds index saw a return of -0.14% in May, with a year-to-date return of 0.28% in local currency [3][5] Index Performance - The China Aggregate Index (I08271CN) had a 1-day return of 0.06%, a month-to-date return of -0.01%, and a year-to-date return of 0.41% [5] - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index (I32561CN) recorded a 1-day return of 0.10%, a month-to-date return of -0.14%, and a year-to-date return of 0.28% [5] - The China Corporate Index (I08275CN) achieved a year-to-date return of 0.76% [5] Market Trends - The Asian emerging market high-yield dollar bond index spread narrowed by nearly 130 basis points from the April peak of 5.63%, leading to a 1.42% increase in the index for May [9] - The yield curve of U.S. Treasuries is experiencing a "bull steepening," which may increase the hedging costs for RMB southbound investors in the dollar bond market [9] - Despite rising hedging costs in 2025, dollar bonds still offer a yield advantage of 44.5 basis points compared to the domestic market priced in RMB [9]

低波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.13%，成立以来累计录得2.23%的收益。 中波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.12%，成立以来累计录得1.51%的收益。 分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：冯思诗 登记编号：S0890524070001 分析师：顾昕 登记编号：S0890524040001 投资要点 市场回顾： 上周（2025.06.09-2025.06.13）债券市场小幅上涨，中债-综合财富指数（CBA00201）收涨 0.18%，中债-综合全价指数(CBA00203)收涨0.15%。利率债收益率基本走平。信用债收益率以下行为主，信用 利差有所收窄。 市场观察： 中美二轮谈判尘埃落地，宏观经济数据偏弱；临近税期资金偏紧，央行积极维护资金面；降息预期 升温，美债标售需求稳健；首单保租房REIT扩募完成，"首发+扩募"带动市场平稳发展。 公募基金市场动态： 年内信用债ETF大扩容，基金公司积极上报科创债指数基金：据悉，近期，数十家基金公 司已递交了关于科创债ETF的申请，此次科创债ETF有数十家基金公司参与申请，首批名单或有10家。首批科 创债ETF可能主要跟踪中证AAA科技创新公司债 ...

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has attracted over 5 billion yuan in inflows, reaching a scale of over 8.6 billion yuan as of June 15, with good liquidity [1] - The ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, maintaining a constant duration with an average duration of 7.6 years, aligning well with the current market environment [1] - Since its inception, the ten-year government bond ETF has maintained positive annual returns from 2018 to 2024, with a cumulative return rate of 34.63% [1] Group 2 - The ETF features T+0 trading convenience, the lowest fees among peers, transparent holdings, and the ability to conduct repurchase agreements [1] - Current market sentiment indicates a high probability of short-term bond market fluctuations, but limited downside risks, as China's economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development [1] - Recent economic data suggests that China is in a "weak recovery" phase, supporting a narrow fluctuation pattern in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the short term, with potential for a trend upward over the year [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework focuses on credit bonds as the base and enhances returns through interest rate bond trading, aligning with the evolving market ecology post-asset management regulations [2]. - The strategy of "buying on dips and selling on rises" is recommended for short-term operations, while maintaining a long-term perspective on credit bond investments [5]. - The introduction of government bond futures for risk hedging in new fund contracts reflects a systematic optimization of investment strategies in response to market changes [4]. Group 2: Risk Management - A rigorous risk management strategy is employed, emphasizing extreme diversification in credit bond investments to mitigate potential credit risks [3]. - The use of long-duration interest rate bonds allows for effective duration management, with a focus on quick trading to capitalize on market fluctuations [3]. - Traditional risk avoidance measures have been strengthened, including lowering product duration and incorporating credit risk mitigation clauses [4]. Group 3: Market Environment - The short bond market faced pressure in the first quarter, with a reported annualized yield of -2.89% for the two-year government bond futures [5]. - Despite recent monetary easing measures, the market's expectations for further rate cuts remain cautious, potentially creating short-term opportunities if cuts are realized [5]. - The bond market's inherent bullish nature allows for the accumulation of coupon income during holding periods, suggesting a strategy of maintaining positions while waiting for favorable conditions [5].

Group 1 - Huaxia Bank successfully issued the largest 5-year commercial bank technology innovation bond in the market [1] - Chongqing Three Gorges Bank successfully issued 3.5 billion yuan perpetual capital bonds with a coupon rate of 2.69% [3] - Sichuan Energy Development Group's 15 billion yuan small public offering bond project has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that New World Development's issuance of US dollar bonds suggests a potential reopening of the offshore bond market for non-state-owned enterprises [5] - A Reuters survey predicts that US Treasury yields are expected to decline in the next six months due to expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts [6] - Jiangxi Bank plans to issue 4 billion yuan green financial bonds with a 3-year term [7] Group 3 - Huitong Co., Ltd. announced that the conversion price of its convertible bonds will be adjusted to 9.06 yuan per share [8] - South Korea's bond market saw record inflows of foreign capital in May [9]

美国财长贝森特：美国仍然是最稳定的债券市场。必须提高和延长债务上限，"难以想象"债务上限突破 后会发生什么。 ...

美国财长贝森特：以任何24小时为窗口来看债券市场都是不正确的方式。 ...