坏账的问题并非仅在坏账本身，若坏账制约了社会资本投入的意愿，那么将导致更严重的后果。韩国 在IMF等国际机构的协助下仅在3年时间内快速出清了坏账和债务问题，并未对全社会的资本投入意愿 产生强烈的疤痕效应。我们看到在债务危机发生后，韩国社会举债意愿仍较高，居民和企业杠杆率持 续增长。 外交政策需向出口优先倾斜。 若需寻求最大化商业价值，可能需要出口国的外交政策更多考虑经济发展和出口优先的战略诉求。 重资本投入模式需配合有效的出口附加值升级。 由于劳动力红利的退坡，韩国在债务危机后的发展更多由资本投入和全要素生产率的改善所带动。虽 然在全球贸易环境变革之后，伴随全球贸易环境从此前注重发挥各个国家比较优势的效率优先，转向 对等贸易的均衡优先，上述这种重资本投入的模式可能越发显得难以为继。但伴随有效的出口升级， 国家意志所加速的产业升级容易在重资本行业快速积累壁垒和经营优势。东亚模式经济体在高速增长 期因低汇率和低人工成本更易获得海外扩张，而在贸易摩擦和人口红利退坡后这种优势难以维系。韩 国的经验显示，配合贸易和增长优先的外交政策，东亚经济体可以在转型期依然获得商品的海外竞争 优势。 韩国的经验显示，当东亚经济体陷入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI revolution is expected to significantly boost macroeconomic demand through capital expenditure, with explosive growth in AI-related capital spending in the US and China projected for the coming years [1][2][3]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure in the US - In the second half of 2023, AI-related capital expenditure in the US has seen explosive growth, with an estimated increase of $861 million by 2025, accounting for approximately 0.3% of US GDP [2]. - The North American cloud service providers are projected to have a total capital expenditure of $3,385 million in 2025, reflecting a 34% increase from 2024 [2]. Group 2: AI Capital Expenditure in China - Following the emergence of DeepSeek, major Chinese companies have ramped up their AI capital expenditures, with Alibaba announcing an investment exceeding 3,800 billion RMB over the next three years, surpassing the total of the past decade [3]. - By 2025, the total capital expenditure increase for representative Chinese firms is expected to reach 1,498 billion RMB, approximately 0.11% of GDP, with optimistic and pessimistic scenarios predicting increases of 2,144 billion and 822 billion RMB, respectively [3]. Group 3: Comparison with Previous Investment Cycles - The current AI capital expenditure cycle is anticipated to resemble the scale of capital expenditures seen during the 2021-2022 new energy investment boom, serving as an additional driving force for traditional economic cycles and gradually enhancing productivity across various industries [4][5]. - Historically, capital expenditure in China has been a lagging variable, typically following improvements in real estate or exports, but the current AI investment cycle is driven by technological iteration, allowing for demand creation ahead of revenue and profit realization [5]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Impact of AI - The AI revolution is expected to increase economic growth by 1-2 percentage points through enhanced total factor productivity, although it may reduce the number of jobs created per unit of GDP growth [62]. - The impact of AI on employment is complex, with historical trends indicating that technological advancements often lead to both job displacement and creation, but recent studies suggest that the displacement effect may be more pronounced in the current AI context [62][69]. Group 5: Industry Beneficiaries - Industries such as information technology, education, finance, manufacturing, and healthcare are projected to benefit the most from AI integration, characterized by high AI penetration and elasticity [80][82]. - The highest AI penetration is observed in information services, professional technology, and educational services, while agriculture and utilities show the lowest penetration [82].

导读 在促进生产力的提升来实现长期的经济增长的长期解决方案的同时，也需要重视当前 的有效需求不足的核心矛盾，平衡短期矛盾和长期方案，等待全新结构调整能够带来的新 动能，这阶段的"阵痛"和"平衡"，都需要时间去化解和等待； ---付鹏 东北证券首席经济学家 都开始正视"有效需求不足"的问题 在最近的 "应对变化的世界"为主题的第六届外滩金融峰会上，国 内经济再次成为讨论的热点，其中感受最深的就是当前关于需求侧 的问题不再像以前那样被避讳。正如央行前行长易纲在峰会上表示："中国面临内需疲软的问题，尤其是在消费和投资方面"。 " 有效需求不足"的问题其实就是供需曲线的失衡，供应和需求就是天平两端，当然当前相比于供给端（过剩）来说，目前需求端的不 足的可能更加突出。正如 中国社会科学院学部委员、浦山基金会理事长 余永定余老所言"如果有效需求的问题能够得以解决，那么产能过 剩问题就不存在"，当前最需要面对的 问题是"有效需求不足" ； 高善文博士也点出了"中国经济总需求不足的局面，仍然相对比较突出。总需求进一步减弱的风险，可能是今年三季度到四季度的主导 性风险"，几乎大家都将关注点集中到了"有效需求不足"这个当前迫切需 ...