1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation is complex and volatile, with the Iran - related conflict having a continuous impact on the energy market, and the short - term cease - fire is difficult. Oil prices fluctuate significantly, and investors need to pay attention to position risk management [1][3] - Various energy and chemical products show an overall "oscillating" trend, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the decline of oil prices narrowed. WTI April contract closed down $2.03 to $90.32 per barrel, a 2.2% decline; Brent May contract closed down $2.27 to $102.22 per barrel, a 2.17% decline; SC2605 closed at 730.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.5% increase. US crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456.185 million barrels last week, the highest since June 2024. Russia's oil export capacity has been reduced by 40%. The short - term cease - fire is difficult, and the impact on the energy market continues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 6.45% at 4348 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 3.89% at 5159 yuan per ton. From January to February 2026, China's fuel oil production was 6.247 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.89%, and the import volume of bonded marine fuel oil was 1.2124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.44%. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 4410 yuan per ton. This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 20.45%, a 1.03% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory rate was 36.59%, a 0.81% month - on - month increase; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 25.93%, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease. Due to high raw material prices and unstable supply, and the expected increase in downstream demand, the short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [4] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6592 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; EG2605 closed at 5036 yuan per ton, down 1.62%. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased the production cut from 15% to 20%, and the production cut cycle has been extended to the end of April. The polyester price fluctuates widely with the cost in the short term [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 205 yuan per ton to 16430 yuan per ton, NR rose 255 yuan per ton to 13565 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 920 yuan per ton to 17720 yuan per ton. In February 2026, the global light - vehicle sales increased slightly, but were affected by the decline in the Chinese passenger - car market, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. The price of butadiene rubber increased, and the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline, but the possible resumption of Iranian plants may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [6] - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and load - reduction devices are numerous, and the output will remain low. The downstream factory operating rate has increased, but short - term geopolitical risks have compressed downstream profit margins, and future demand growth may be hindered [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China, North China, and South China markets has decreased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium - carbide method has increased rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The US has proposed a plan to end the conflict to Iran through several friendly countries, and Iran is studying it. The US EIA report shows that last week, the increase in US crude oil inventory far exceeded expectations, and distillate inventory increased unexpectedly while gasoline inventory decreased [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][34] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It displays the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [70][72] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and achievements [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic plastic futures market is in a complex situation with strong cost support, weak demand, and differentiated inventory. In the short - term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the oil price is likely to rise and support the plastic price. With the ongoing domestic device maintenance, the supply is tightening, and the plastic futures price will maintain a strong - side shock. In the long - term, if the geopolitical conflict eases, the cost premium will fade, and the slow recovery of downstream demand and high social inventory will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Q1 2026, the domestic plastic supply showed features of slower capacity expansion, more device maintenance, and a structural decline in the operating rate. The capacity expansion speed slowed down significantly, and there were only a small amount of new production capacity in early January. The industry entered the stage of digesting existing capacity, and the new supply pressure was significantly relieved [3]. - In March, the spring maintenance of domestic petrochemical enterprises led to a contraction in supply. By mid - March, the operating rate of the polyethylene (PE) industry dropped to 82.39%, 4.5 percentage points lower than in February. The weekly output decreased by 37500 tons, and the output affected by device maintenance reached 91000 tons. The profit of coal - based PE was over 1900 yuan/ton, while the oil - based PE was in continuous loss, with a loss of over 2000 yuan/ton, which forced high - cost oil - based capacity to reduce production and conduct maintenance, further intensifying the supply contraction [4]. Demand Side - After the Spring Festival, the downstream plastic product enterprises gradually resumed work, but the resumption rhythm was slower than in previous years. By mid - to late March, the operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film industry rose to 35.44%, and that of packaging film and pipe industries rose to about 50%. The PP downstream industries had different operating rates, and the overall downstream mainly had rigid demand for procurement. There were two main factors restricting demand: weak terminal consumption and slow export orders, and the high plastic price squeezing downstream profits. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the demand for some plastic products is expected to improve [6][8][9]. Impact of Geopolitical Situation - The continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict has become a core external variable affecting oil prices and plastic futures. The shipping volume of the Strait of Hormuz dropped by 92% in March, causing concerns about oil supply disruptions. The oil price rose sharply, and the cost of oil - based plastic increased, driving up the plastic price. But the impact of geopolitics on oil prices is short - term and uncertain [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line dropped 6.04%. The potential negotiation between the US and Iran and the consideration of a one - month cease - fire by the US led to a geopolitical cooling and a synchronous callback of EC. MSC's new weekly cabin in the 15th week had a large - container quote of $2300, a $300 decrease from the previous week. Its online quote for the first half of April was $2852, basically the same as that in late March. In April, cargo volume usually increases with the completion of resumption of work, but this year, the end of the rush - export of products like photovoltaic may bring pressure on cargo volume and freight rates. With the geopolitical conflict not cooling down, shipping companies tend to raise and maintain prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the quotes of other shipping companies should be monitored [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price, latest increase/decrease, trading volume, and other data of different EC contracts (such as EC2604, EC2606, etc.) are presented. For example, EC2604 had a latest transaction price of 1803 points, a latest increase of 3.00%, a trading volume of 27497 (with a 3062 increase from the previous period), and a net long - position of - 1007. The total trading volume was 42327, and the total open interest was 42377 [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest spot freight rate data for European routes are provided. The SCFIS index was 1693.26 points, with an 8.8% week - on - week increase; SCFI was $1636/TEU, with a 1.1% increase. The TCI (20GP) was $1866/TEU with no change, and TCI (40GP) was $3128/FEU with no change [4] Basis Spread - The basis spread of the container shipping European line futures main contract showed a certain trend. The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 109.74, and on the day before the previous trading day was - 205.64, with a change of 95.9 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, but there is a short-term window of relief and moderation in the capital market. The probability of a short-term oversold rebound in stock indices has increased. In the long run, stock indices are still bullish. [1] - Bond markets are expected to fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior in trading. [1] - The situation in the Middle East remains complex, affecting the prices of various commodities. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and geopolitical factors. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - External shocks persist, but short-term oversold rebound probability rises due to marginal changes in US attitude and potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Policy support may increase after market decline. In the long run, stock indices are bullish. [1] Bonds - Fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors including allocation demand, monetary policy easing expectations, fiscal supply pressure, and trading profit-taking. [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After an oversold rebound, pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, but supply disruptions support prices. Monitor the production dynamics of Middle Eastern aluminum plants. [1] - **Alumina**: Rising prices are supported by factors such as energy prices, freight, and potential export quotas in Guinea, but the supply surplus limits the upside. [1] - **Zinc**: After a rebound due to improved market sentiment, investors are advised to wait and see due to high uncertainty in the Middle East. [1] - **Nickel**: Prices may be volatile and bullish due to cost concerns from export taxes in Indonesia. Pay attention to RKAB approvals, policies, and macro sentiment. Look for low-buying opportunities while controlling risks. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Futures prices are volatile and bullish. Pay attention to demand acceptance. Short-term operations with low-buying opportunities and risk control are recommended. [1] - **Tin**: After a rebound, investors are advised to wait and see due to high uncertainty in the Middle East. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Prices rebound as oil prices and dollar liquidity tensions ease, but geopolitical risks remain, and prices may fluctuate. [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices rebound but are limited by geopolitical factors. Short-term wide-range fluctuations are expected. [1] Industrial Silicon - Supply is resuming, demand is weak, and inventories are being reduced. [1] Polysilicon - There are liquidity risks, with strong storage demand but weak power demand. [1] Carbonate Lithium - In the de-stocking cycle, with low total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average. Prices are mainly supported by costs. [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: In the de-stocking cycle, with low demand. Prices are mainly supported by costs. Treat it as a volatile market. [1] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Supply and demand are strong, in the de-stocking cycle, but inventory levels are high. Test the de-stocking pressure. Use a volatile mindset and consider positive arbitrage positions. [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts and cost support are positive factors. [1] - **Silicon Iron**: Short-term supply and demand are weak, and prices fluctuate due to geopolitical conflicts. [1] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are volatile. [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows glass. In the short term, affected by geopolitical conflicts; in the medium term, supply is more abundant, and prices are under pressure. [1] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal may have a rapid and sharp rebound, but the development of the war is uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, many varieties may reach their peak, and long positions should be closed in time. [1] Oils and Fats - After a high and then a fall, the expected driving force from crude oil weakens. Be wary of profit-taking and potential callbacks. Long-term bullish view remains. Pay attention to factors such as Indonesian biodiesel production, US biodiesel policies, and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, high inventory, weak restocking willingness, and import substitution pressure exist. Prices are expected to rise in the long run with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations. [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, supply is abundant, and the market is shifting from tight balance to slight surplus. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal-strong and external-weak pattern. [1] - **Corn**: With increased supply and reduced trading sentiment, the short-term market is expected to fluctuate and correct, but the correction range is limited. [1] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In May, soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the market is expected to reflect delivery pressure. Wait for a correction to layout long positions in the far month. The M5 - M9 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to be in a reverse spread. [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamental situation is weak, and short-term weak fluctuations are expected. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, expectations are strong. Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages and have reduced production. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and there are concerns about supply interruptions. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is limited, but the price of crude oil affects asphalt. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The climate in the production area is normal, and normal tapping is expected. The futures-spot price difference is at a relatively high level. [1] - **BR Rubber**: The cost of butadiene has strong support, and there are expectations of increased exports. The profit of private cis-butadiene rubber plants is in deficit, and there are expectations of reduced production. [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the supply risk is significant, and the polyester industry chain may face production decline. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with shortages of raw materials and increased prices. [1] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply shortages of ethylene and benzene, and non-integrated producers face profit losses. [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment is weak, and there is limited upside. There is support from cost and anti-inversion. [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high, and inventory is at a historical high. [1] - **PE and PVC**: Affected by geopolitical factors, raw material supply is limited, and the fundamentals are weak. PVC has a more optimistic future outlook with potential capacity reduction. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by the Middle East situation, with a strong trend. The domestic PDH operating rate is declining, and the demand is short-term bearish. There is a divergence between the domestic and international markets. [1] Shipping - The container shipping market on the European route is affected by war sentiment. After the off-season in March, there are expectations of price increases. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may test the support at 4,500 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures will test the support at 9,500 yuan. If it breaks below 9,500 yuan, it may rise again. US biodiesel policy is approaching, and NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory is at a 13 - year high. Domestic traders are cautious, and the supply is sufficient currently, but the refinery's operating rate may decline later, and the basis quote may rise slightly [1]. 2. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures are slightly up. US cotton production areas face drought and cold air, and the inspection progress exceeds 100%. The domestic cotton market is in the second half of the "Golden March", with slower yarn transactions. The market is expected to be oscillating and slightly strong, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' orders and macro - news [2]. 3. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen from a five - month high. Brazil's sugarcane crush volume is expected to increase, but sugar production may be adjusted down. India's sugar production is also expected to be lower. Domestic sugar imports exceed expectations, and the spot market is weak, but prices are supported. Short - term sugar futures are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. 4. Red Date Industry - The futures market has a small rebound at a low level, but the upside is limited due to weak consumption in the off - season. The inventory reduction is slow, and the number of registered futures warrants is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5]. 5. Apple Industry - The futures market has fallen from a high level, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The spot market is divided, with good - quality apples having a good trading atmosphere and ordinary apples having inventory pressure. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [7]. 6. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - The corn price in the Northeast is stable, the price in the North Port is weak, and the price in North China is stable. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises exists, but the substitution of wheat is increasing. Policy - related factors such as wheat auctions and expected rice auctions may affect the price. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [9]. 7. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are supported at around 1,160 cents, with multiple factors affecting the market. Domestic soybean meal has digested concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The inventory is not loose, but the speculation is weak. There is a potential negative impact from the expected increase in soybean planting area [10]. 8. Pig Industry - The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot market is weak. The large - scale pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. The demand is in the off - season, and the market is pessimistic. The futures price has limited room to fall after breaking below 10,000 yuan, but the weak spot market may continue until April [12]. 9. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is relatively loose, with an increase in the number of culled chickens and a slight increase in newly - laid hens. The demand is affected by high raw material prices and the end of pre - holiday stocking. The overall market is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu is 8,970 - 9,040 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.77%); the futures price of Y2605 is 8,594 yuan, down 146 yuan (-1.67%); the basis of Y2605 is 376 yuan, up 76 yuan (25.33%). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 9,918 yuan, down 210 yuan; the futures price of P2605 is 9,942 yuan, down 298 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,378 yuan, down 140 yuan; the futures price of OI605 is 9,950 yuan, down 137 yuan [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by US soybean oil and crude oil. The domestic soybean oil market has sufficient supply currently, and the refinery's operating rate may decline. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the US - Iran cease - fire plan and the decline of US crude oil prices [1]. 2. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of cotton 2605 is 15,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the futures price of cotton 2609 is 15,465 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.42%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-4.17%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 16,573 yuan, down 17 yuan (-0.10%); the CC Index of 3128B is 16,711 yuan, down 21 yuan (-0.13%) [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 0.00 million tons, down 547.70 million tons (-100%); the industrial inventory is 102.40 million tons, up 13.00 million tons (14.5%); the import volume is 16.65 million tons, down 3.91 million tons (-19.0%); the bonded area inventory is 47.10 million tons, up 4.20 million tons (9.8%) [2]. 3. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of sugar 2605 is 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of sugar 2609 is 5,461 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (-3.23%). The spot price in Nanning is 5,470 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming is 5,320 yuan, unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value is 926.00 million tons, down 45.61 million tons (-4.69%); the national sugar sales cumulative value is 345.00 million tons, down 130.16 million tons (-27.39%); the sugar production in Guangxi cumulative value is 565.13 million tons, down 51.58 million tons (-8.36%) [4]. 4. Red Date Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of red date 2605 is 8,890 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-0.39%); the futures price of red date 2607 is 9,060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-0.33%); the futures price of red date 2609 is 9,265 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-0.48%); the 5 - 7 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-3.03%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (2.60%) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market rebounds slightly at a low level, but the consumption in the off - season is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [5]. 5. Apple Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of apple 2605 is 9,978 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan (-0.93%); the futures price of apple 2610 is 8,666 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.41%); the 5 - 10 spread is 1,312 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan (-8.95%) [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market falls from a high level, and the spot market is divided. The cold - storage inventory is at a historical low [7]. 6. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2605 is 2,376 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (-0.29%); the Jinzhou Port flat - cabin price is 2,390 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.83%); the basis is 14 yuan, down 13 yuan (-48.15%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 23 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-9.52%). The futures price of corn starch 2605 is 2,763 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.32%); the average price of corn starch is 2,972 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.17%); the basis is 209 yuan, up 4 yuan (1.95%) [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The corn price in the Northeast is stable, the price in the North Port is weak, and the price in North China is stable. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises exists, but the substitution of wheat is increasing. Policy - related factors may affect the price [9]. 7. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is 3,280 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.61%); the futures price of M2605 is 2,932 yuan, down 29 yuan (-0.98%); the basis of M2605 is 339 yuan, down 9 yuan (-2.65%). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2,560 yuan, down 40 yuan (-1.54%); the futures price of RM2605 is 2,339 yuan, down 26 yuan (-1.10%); the basis of RM2605 is 221 yuan, down 14 yuan (-5.96%) [10]. - **Market Analysis**: US soybean prices are affected by multiple factors. Domestic soybean meal has digested concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity, and the inventory is not loose [10]. 8. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the main contract of pigs 2605 is 9,980 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (-0.65%); the futures price of pigs 2607 is 11,310 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (0.53%); the 5 - 7 spread is - 1,330 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-10.37%) [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot market is weak. The large - scale pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening [12]. 9. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of egg 04 contract is 3,330 yuan/500KG, up 18 yuan (0.54%); the futures price of egg 05 contract is 3,410 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (0.26%); the 4 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (10.11%) [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by high raw material prices and the end of pre - holiday stocking. The overall market is weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple industries including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals, and provides investment logic and fundamental analysis for each sub - sector [3][8][10]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities, and continuous attention should be paid to the development of the situation, especially the negotiation progress between the US and Iran and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Logic**: The differences in the five cease - fire conditions proposed by Iran have promoted the recovery of crude oil prices. The market is still tense, and the long - term supply pattern is affected by the oil flow in the Middle East [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still scarce, and the overall crude oil supply is tight [3]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the macro - sentiment is weak [3]. - **Geopolitics**: There are differences between the US and Iran in the negotiation. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation has promoted the rise of oil prices [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - **Logic**: COSCO Shipping resumes flights, and attention should be paid to the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz [5]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The geopolitical sensitivity is high. The price has dropped, but the downward space is limited due to the support of fundamentals. The demand in Asia has increased, and the supply in the Middle East has decreased, resulting in a tight balance sheet [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The sentiment has cooled, but it is still running at a high level. The supply increment is limited, and the demand in ports has been affected. It is expected to continue to be strong but may continue to correct [6]. 3.1.3 LPG - **Logic**: The geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the LPG price has fallen [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US intends to cease fire for one month, and the international oil price has fallen, driving the LPG price to correct. However, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the cost - driven factor, and attention should be paid to its progress [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract has risen, and the open interest has increased. The spot market atmosphere is average, and the basis has strengthened. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have begun to implement production cuts [8]. 3.3 Coal Chemical 3.3.1 Urea - **Logic**: Supported by sentiment and cost, be vigilant against policy pressure [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The market procurement atmosphere is average, and the new orders are weak. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The inventory has decreased. The international price has risen, but the domestic price is under policy pressure, and the price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - **Logic**: The geopolitical sentiment has eased, but the short - term import shortage provides support. Do not chase the high price [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The MA2605 contract has fallen, but the decline is limited. The port price has fallen, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import is expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to further decrease [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical 3.4.1 Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supported by the cost increase expectation [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The coal price has risen, and the cost has increased. However, the supply and demand in the real - world are not effectively supported, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The rebound needs the cooperation of supply - side production cuts [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - **Logic**: Supported by the low - level supply [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has been continuously shrinking, and the daily melting volume is at a low level. The demand impact of the real estate sector has been narrowing, and the market is moving towards supply - demand balance. The price has support at a low level, and the demand for home - decoration orders may improve [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supported by the continuous reduction of production at home and abroad, the supply - demand side support is strong [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is relatively strong, mainly supported by export demand. The supply of caustic soda in the ethylene - method PVC industry at home and abroad is affected by the Strait blockade. If the blockade lasts for a long time, the price may rise further [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly [16]. - **Fundamentals**: There are disturbances in upstream copper mines, and the processing fee is at a historical low, providing cost support. The long - term demand for copper in the new energy transformation is positive. If the Middle East oil price disturbance ends, the macro - pressure may weaken [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The prospect of monetary policy is uncertain, and the rise in energy costs has pushed up inflation. The short - term Middle East situation affects the US dollar index. If the US dollar index weakens, the gold price may rise [19]. 3.5.3 Silver - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations. The silver price has temporarily got out of the low point, but the future is still uncertain [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend strength ratings for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment trends. The trend strength is classified into five categories: weak,偏弱, neutral,偏强, and strong, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). Here are the trend strength ratings for some commodities: - **Positive trend strength**: Nickel (1), Stainless steel (1), LPG (1), Propylene (1), Glass (1), Soda ash (1), Beans meal (1) [29][116][93][114][160] - **Negative trend strength**: Platinum (-1), Palladium (-1), Alumina (-1), Fuel oil (-1), Low-sulfur fuel oil (-1), Eggs (-1), Live pigs (-2) [25][27][24][127][174][177] - **Neutral trend strength**: Gold (0), Silver (0), Copper (0), Zinc (0), Lead (0), Tin (0), Aluminum (0), Cast aluminum alloy (0), Carbonate lithium (0), Industrial silicon (0), Polysilicon (0), Iron ore (0), Rebar (0), Hot-rolled coil (0), Ferrosilicon (0), Silicomanganese (0), Coke (0), Coking coal (0), Logs (0), p-Xylene (0), PTA (0), MEG (0), Rubber (0), Synthetic rubber (0), Caustic soda (0), Pulp (0), Methanol (0), Urea (0), Styrene (0), Pure benzene (0), Palm oil (0), Soybean oil (0), Soybean (0), Corn (0), Sugar (0), Cotton (0), Peanuts (0), Container shipping index (Europe) (0) [6][10][13][16][19][22][37][43][46][50][54][57][63][68][76][80][83][87][95][102][106][150][154][160][163][167][170][181][129] Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply and demand, cost, and inventory. Here are the core views for some commodities: - **Precious metals**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, which has put pressure on gold and silver prices. Gold and silver have fallen from their shock platforms [6]. - **Base metals**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on copper prices. Zinc is in a sideways shock, and lead prices are supported by reduced inventory. Tin requires attention to the stabilization of macro sentiment [10][13][16][19]. - **Energy**: The negotiation of iron ore has a缓和 expectation, leading to a price correction. Coking coal and coke are in a wide-range shock due to Indonesia's coal export levy of windfall tax. The sentiment of thermal coal is strong, and port transactions have moved up [46][57][61]. - **Chemicals**: p-Xylene and PTA are in a short-term shock market and are still bullish in the medium term. MEG has a tight supply and a bullish medium-term trend. PVC is in a wide-range shock [68][124]. - **Agricultural products**: The soybean meal may follow the rebound of US soybeans due to the news of the head-of-state meeting. The market sentiment of soybeans is weak, waiting for the guidance of state reserve sales. Corn is in a shock operation [160][163]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and prices have fallen from the shock platform. The prices of gold and silver futures and spot have declined to varying degrees, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of gold ETFs has decreased, while the inventory of silver ETFs has increased [6]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a shock and bearish trend, and attention should be paid to the retracement elasticity. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have shown different trends, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on copper prices. The prices of copper futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of copper has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [10]. - **Zinc**: It is in a sideways shock. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of zinc has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [13]. - **Lead**: The inventory has decreased, supporting the price. The prices of lead futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of lead has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the stabilization of macro sentiment. The prices of tin futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of tin has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [19]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is in a range shock, alumina is running weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There are contradictions between macro and ore ends, and the short-term long-short game has intensified. Stainless steel is suppressed by overseas macro and supported by actual costs. The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of nickel has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [29]. Energy - **Iron Ore**: The negotiation has a缓和 expectation, leading to a price correction. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of iron ore has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [46]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in a wide-range shock due to Indonesia's coal export levy of windfall tax. The prices of coking coal and coke futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of coking coal and coke has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [57]. - **Thermal Coal**: The sentiment is strong, and port transactions have moved up. The prices of thermal coal futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of thermal coal has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [61]. Chemicals - **p-Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: p-Xylene and PTA are in a short-term shock market and are still bullish in the medium term. MEG has a tight supply and a bullish medium-term trend. The prices of p-Xylene, PTA, and MEG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of p-Xylene, PTA, and MEG has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [68]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide-range shock. The prices of PVC futures and spot have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of PVC has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [124]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber is in a wide-range shock, and synthetic rubber is in an intraday wide-range shock with an upward price center. The prices of rubber and synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of rubber and synthetic rubber has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [76][80]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a wide-range shock. The prices of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [83]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock operation. The prices of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of pulp has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [87]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide-range shock. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of methanol has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [95]. - **Urea**: It has pressure on the upper side and support on the lower side, and is in a range operation. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of urea has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [102]. - **Styrene**: It is in a high-level shock. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of styrene has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda ash futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of soda ash has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [112]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The soybean meal may follow the rebound of US soybeans due to the news of the head-of-state meeting. The market sentiment of soybeans is weak, waiting for the guidance of state reserve sales. The prices of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of soybean meal and soybean has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [160]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock operation. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of corn has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range shock. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of sugar has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [167]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the external market. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of cotton has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [170]. - **Eggs**: They are in a weak shock. The prices of eggs futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of eggs has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [174]. - **Live Pigs**: The weight reduction drive is approaching, and the proximal pressure is increasing. The prices of live pigs futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of live pigs has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [177]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The prices of peanuts futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed. The inventory of peanuts has decreased, and the import and export volume has also changed [181].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The market is highly uncertain in the short - term due to geopolitical influence, and investors are advised to control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 2.30% to $4503.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $71.44 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.82% to 1016.92 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.15% to 18000 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 25, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.572 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1052.419 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holding at 15513.67 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 5.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 94.8%. By June, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 11.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point increase is 0.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.9% [1] - Putin signed a decree banning the export of gold bars over 100 grams from Russia and restricting the amount of cash rubles carried to the Eurasian Economic Union [1] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that there is no negotiation with the US and no intention to talk with the US. Iranian officials said that the US's so - called "15 - point cease - fire proposal" is "listing fantasies". Iran said that neither a cease - fire nor negotiations are feasible at the current stage and put forward five conditions for a cease - fire: complete cessation of aggression and assassination, ensuring that war will not be imposed on Iran again, war reparations, end of the war on all fronts and by all resistance organizations, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the US continued to send negotiation signals but at the same time stepped up troop deployment. Iran denied direct negotiations and responded strongly. ICE Brent crude oil rebounded after hitting a low. The US stock market rose slightly on Wednesday, the 2 - year US Treasury yield at the close was basically the same as on Tuesday, and the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.63. COMEX gold and silver both rose and then fell on Wednesday, closing slightly higher than the previous trading day. Recently, the US has shown an intention for peace talks, and oil and gold prices have initially stabilized, but the positions of the US and Iran still need to be reconciled, and the future development needs continuous attention [1] Trading Strategy - Due to geopolitical influence, the market has high short - term uncertainty. Investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Geopolitical factors support the container shipping trend, and shipping companies' cargo - receiving situation is average, with expected lower freight quotes. The container shipping market is expected to be volatile and weak, with a large range of fluctuations. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations or wait for opportunities and control risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Macro and Container Shipping European Line - **Market Logic**: On March 23, SCFIS closed at 1,693.26 points, up 8.8% from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures. On March 20, the SCFI European line freight rate was $1,636/TEU, with a 1.1% increase [1] - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the container shipping European line EC2604 contract fell to 1,803.0, a decrease of 6.04%. The decline of far - month contracts was greater than that of near - month contracts [1] - **Important Information**: The permanent mission of Iran to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent countries' ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination; Iran rejected the US - proposed cease - fire plan and put forward 5 conditions for a cease - fire; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that military operations against Iran will "continue in full force"; Maersk significantly lowered the opening price for the 15th week, which may prompt other liner companies to follow suit in soliciting cargo [1] - **Trading Strategy**: The container shipping market is expected to be volatile and weak, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities and focus on risk control [1]