由数据可以看出，今年以来汽柴批发行情走势分化较为明显，汽油价格走势震荡上涨，而柴油价格下跌 为主，因此柴油批零价差涨幅较大。分析来看，汽油需求面受春节假期带动下表现尚可，加之原油走势 偏强，汽油批发价格走势较为坚挺。但新能源冲击持续发力，汽油终端消费量继续萎缩，汽油价格走势 上推幅度受抑。而柴油市场方面，进入冬季，户外工程、基建等柴油主力需求进入传统淡季，其基本面 支撑持续减弱，节前终端囤货意愿偏低，柴油批发行情走势震荡下行为主。 后市来看，国际市场消息面，相较于经济面与基本面，地缘政治对于油市的影响则更甚，尤其是美伊核 谈的结果将直接引导油价的走势，近期国际原油价格大概率在地缘政治的影响下保持震荡格局。受此影 响，新一轮调价上调概率依旧较大，消息面指引谨慎向好。而批发端来看，春季假期结束，汽油终端消 耗量下降明显，汽油价格走势短期内下行压力较大，汽油批零价差或继续扩大。而柴油需求在元宵假期 之前复苏缓慢，需求面支撑仍显不足，但考虑目前价格处于低位，成本面支撑趋强，预计柴油价格下跌 空间有限，短期内柴油批零价差走势窄幅波动为主。（成品油分析师：马建彩） 来源：中国能源网 2026年以来国际市场方面在地缘风险升 ...

与此同时，两位美联储官员暗示，短期内无意改变央行利率政策设定。市场目前预计今年将进行三次25 个基点的降息。"金价仍有充足的上行空间，特别是推动金价上涨的所有因素（如美国财政贸易政策、 外交政策等）持续存在的话。"地缘政治方面，阿曼外交大臣此前表示，美伊将于周四在日内瓦举行第 三轮核谈判。截至发稿，现货黄金涨超1%，现货白银、现货铂金均涨超4%，现货钯金涨逾2%。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 2月25日，由于美国最高法院驳回特朗普多项关税措施后，政策前景存在不确定性，投资者纷纷涌向避 险金属，推动金价上涨。市场分析师Kyle Rodda表示："中国市场的回归，加上美国政策不确定性的增 加，正维持着黄金和白银在一定程度上的吸引力。" 责任编辑：钟离 ...

本报驻希腊特约记者 梁曼瑜 本报记者 徐嘉彤 "特朗普正计划访问希腊。"美国驻希腊大使金伯利·吉尔福伊尔本月初这样透露道。这位大使去年11月 抵达雅典正式履新，她是特朗普长子小唐纳德的前女友，被特朗普称为"亲密朋友和盟友"。由于最近一 次美国总统访问希腊已是2016年，所以这一信息被希腊媒体解读为美国对东地中海地区的兴趣增长。 上周，吉尔福伊尔又称，美国将与希腊和韩国签署三边造船协议。据比利时"欧洲动态"网站报道，该协 议将聚焦国防工业领域，美希正商讨在希腊造船厂建造美国护卫舰的事宜。不过，有业内人士认为，尽 管希腊拥有一些小型造船厂，其仍缺乏建造搭载先进技术的军舰的能力。也有人猜测，这份协议是美国 试图在航运方面扩大影响力以制衡他国的体现。 编者的话：2月23日，美军最大航母"福特"号抵达希腊克里特岛苏达湾，这里设有北约军事基地，是希 腊、美国及北约在东地中海的重要战略设施。至此，美国已在中东部署"双航母"，作为对伊朗施压的最 新举措。上周，美国驻希腊大使吉尔福伊尔宣布美国有望与希腊、韩国签署一项造船协议。她此前还透 露，美国总统特朗普计划访问希腊。有欧洲媒体认为，希腊正将自己定位为欧洲进口美国液化天然气的 ...

但从长期来看，中国抛售美股就是一种趋势性的信号。毕竟中国作为全球第二大经济体，它的资产配置方向，本身就是风向标，其他国家的主权基金、养老 金在看中国怎么做。比如今年1月份，欧洲最大的养老基金ABP就大幅削减了美债敞口，丹麦主要养老基金更狠，直接威胁要把手里的美债清仓。 更重要的是，这种减持也是对美元体系的一种态度表达。过去美元是"我们的货币，你们的问题"，现在大家开始觉得美元和美股也是"我们的问题"。所以， 现在不只是中国，连一些传统盟友，比如加拿大、印度的机构，也开始重新掂量手里美元资产的份量。 总而言之，中国连续三年卖美股不是一时兴起，而是算了一笔经济账之后的选择，这背后既有对自身资产安全的考量，也有应对复杂地缘政治的权衡。特朗 普4月份要来北京，谈的肯定是大局，是两国关系的框架。但在谈这些大事的同时，中国手里的这笔钱还在默默地寻找更安全的地方。 最后，则是地缘政治的因素，就在中美紧锣密鼓筹备元首会晤的同时，中方也在不断划出红线。中国驻美大使谢锋在华盛顿参加活动时明确强调，台湾问题 是中美关系第一条不可逾越的红线。 而这个节骨眼上，外媒还在报道美国又在研究新一轮的对台军售，金额可能高达200亿美元。所以说 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by geopolitical events and U.S. tariff policies, suggesting a strategy for investors to adopt a long-term holding approach to gold as part of their asset allocation [2][5]. Market Overview - London spot gold showed weak fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures down 1.25% at $5160.50 per ounce, and SHFE gold down 0.30% [2][5]. - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, nearing a four-week high, while tech stocks strengthened, boosting U.S. equities, leading to declines in gold and oil prices [2][5]. U.S. Tariff Policy - A 10% global tariff policy by the U.S. government took effect, implemented through the 1974 Trade Act, bypassing Congress for a period of 150 days, with uncertainty about a potential increase to 15% [2][5]. - The imposition of tariffs has heightened global economic uncertainty, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling that deemed the previous administration's tariff actions illegal, impacting its credibility ahead of midterm elections [2][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events have become a focal point for market attention, particularly during the holiday period, which previously drove gold prices upward [2][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in U.S.-Iran tensions and the anticipation of future interest rate cuts as catalysts for gold price movements [2][5]. Investment Strategy - It is suggested that investors adopt a "phased layout, long-term holding" strategy for gold, positioning it as a significant component of their investment portfolio [2][5].

【中信期货航运(集运)】现货缓跌叠加地缘与关税双重 2026/2/24 情绪利多驱动,EC各合约增仓上行 投资咨询业务资格: サ 工业与周期组 究 证监许可【2012】669号 安婕锐 武嘉峪 员 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 假期内中东地缘局势仍有恶化风险、美国关税政策调整背景下实际执行税率有一定下调，欧盟将延续红海护航计划，情绪端对市 场形成一定支撑。据Geek Rate线上运价,MSK 3月运价达1950美元/FEU较开舱上行50美元/FEU,其余航运公司3月运价在2300美元/FEU 以上,SCFIS欧线指数连续2期跌幅偏缓,现货瑞未出现明显跌价迹象,盘面今日增仓修复贴水。成交量抬升,主力合约04最高触及 1397点, 盘面涨幅达6.8%, 增仓超8000手, 截止收盘持仓上涨至3.45万手。05合约收于1479点，上涨12.6%, 增仓122手。06合约收于 1691.6点,上涨6.1%,增仓1897手,持仓上涨至1.58万手。 交易逻辑:我们昨日在周报中对市场进行提示，现货方面船司3月上旬运价小幅上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].

截至10:19，成分股仅做展示使用，不构成投资建议。 2月25日，A股市场震荡上行，油气板块再度冲高！截至10:09，高纯度的油气ETF汇添富（159309）涨超2.5%，续创历史新高，盘中强势吸金近5000万元， 延续前两日吸金势头！ 油气ETF汇添富（159309）标的指数成分股多数冲高，通源石油涨超14%，潜能恒信涨超11%，招商轮船、中远海能、洲际油气、招商南油等涨停，杰瑞股 份、中国石油等微涨，中国海油略有回调。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 甲万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002353 | 态瑞股份 | 机械设备 | 0.24% | 11.30% | | 2 | 600938 | 中国海油 | 石油石化 | -0.32% | 9.89% | | 3 | 601857 | 中国石油 | 石油石化 | 0.72% | 8.54% | | 4 | 600028 | 中国石化 | 石油石化 | 1.06% | 8.34% | | 5 | 601872 | 招商轮船 | 交通运输 | 9.99% | 7. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with precious metals leading the gains [1]. - Domestic macroeconomic situation shows a differentiated performance during the Spring Festival, with strong travel and consumption but weak real - estate sales. The start of social financing in January was stable, with government financing being strong and private financing in line with expectations [13]. - Overseas, the US economy shows a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed down significantly, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [13]. - In the short - term, overseas economy may suppress base metals, but copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel with tight supply are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Tariff disturbances may support the prices of gold and silver. A - shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, while crude oil, black commodities, and the domestic bond market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 24, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4683.4, with a daily increase of 1.06%, a weekly increase of 1.22%, a monthly decrease of 0.59%, a quarterly increase of 1.82%, and an annual increase of 1.82%. Other stock index futures also had different degrees of fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had certain price increases and fluctuations in different time periods [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.7425, with a monthly increase of 0.65% and an annual decrease of 0.54%. The US dollar middle - price had a significant decline [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 24, 2026, industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily and quarterly increases, while industries such as consumer services, computer, and non - bank finance had declines [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 23, 2026, precious metals such as COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, while energy products such as NYMEX natural gas had significant declines [8]. 3.4 Fluctuations of Domestic Commodities - On February 24, 2026, products such as crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and silver had relatively large daily increases, while products such as iron ore, coke, and coking coal had declines [11]. 3.5 Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, but real - estate sales were weak. Social financing in January started stably, with government financing being strong and private financing in line with expectations [13]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed down, and inflation stickiness still exists [13]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Short - term overseas economy may suppress base metals, but copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel with tight supply are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Tariff disturbances may support the prices of gold and silver. A - shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, while crude oil, black commodities, and the domestic bond market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [13]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: After the Spring Festival, stocks and bonds both rose. Stock index futures are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to oscillate [14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner due to positive impacts of tariff policy changes [14]. - **Shipping**: The spot price of container shipping to Europe is expected to oscillate, and steel and iron ore prices are also expected to oscillate [14]. - **Black Building Materials**: The real - world situation and expectations are not good, and the prices of products such as coke, coking coal, and glass are expected to oscillate [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Base metals are expected to oscillate and sort out. Products such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner [14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to the tense relationship between the US and Iran, oil prices are boosted. Products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Agriculture**: After the Spring Festival, most agricultural products rose on the first day. Products such as natural rubber, cotton, and corn are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner, while products such as pigs and sugar are expected to be weaker in an oscillating manner [16].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价震荡偏强，关注周四美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治 主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动： | | 原油 | 谨慎看多 | 供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 | | ★ | | 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | ★ | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | L | | 节后石化累库幅度符合季节性规律，基差月差走强。部分装置陆续回归， | | | 反弹 | 预计本周产量增加。短期供需驱动不足，跟随成本端口波动为主。 | | ★ | | | | | | 节后现货库存暂未更新，盘面跟随成本波动为主，华东基差显著走弱。丙 | | PP | 反弹 | 烯、 ...