Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term bearishness is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, with slow import unloading, slower port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - fired plant shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, with supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. Although consumption lacks positive factors, the downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. - For rubber, as the positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, with continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the decline in pure benzene and styrene prices, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [16][17]. - For polyethylene, with cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [19][20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [22][23]. - For PX, with high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [23][24]. - For PTA, with short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [24][25]. - For ethylene glycol, with high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [26][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, at 468.90 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.53 million barrels to 212.44 million barrels, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25% [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and decreased by 20 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 4 yuan to 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 38 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: With slow import unloading and potential supply disruptions, the downward momentum of the futures price is limited. It's advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 2 yuan to 1640 yuan, with a basis of - 60 yuan [7]. - **Strategy**: With supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong enterprises was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises was 74.49%. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1050000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC increased by 38 yuan to 4746 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 146 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory was 334000 tons, and social inventory was 1035000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: With continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread was 109.87 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons to 20.25 million tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 7024 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.46 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% [19]. - **Strategy**: With cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6699 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 million tons to 63.85 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [21][22]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX increased by 104 yuan to 6626 yuan. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA increased by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million tons [24]. - **Strategy**: With short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol increased by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 million tons to 52.3 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: With high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [27].

Core Points - The EU's recent sanctions against Chinese energy companies signal a deeper geopolitical conflict, involving both political and economic dimensions [1][3][11] - The sanctions specifically target 12 Chinese and Hong Kong companies, which play a crucial role in the processing and export of Russian oil, indicating a significant impact on Sino-Russian oil trade [3][9] - The EU's strategy includes secondary sanctions aimed at third parties providing services to the targeted companies, reflecting a comprehensive approach to disrupt cross-border supply chains [3][5] Industry Impact - The targeted Chinese companies account for less than 3% of national refining capacity but are vital for importing, processing, and exporting Russian oil, suggesting a short-term disruption in Sino-Russian energy trade [3][9] - The sanctions may lead to increased oil prices, nearing $95 per barrel, which could compress profit margins for industries in Europe and the US due to cost transmission to end consumers [9][11] - The EU's ambition to "de-China" the renewable energy supply chain faces significant challenges, as reliance on China for rare earths and manufacturing remains difficult to replace in the short term [9][13] Geopolitical Context - The sanctions represent a strategic shift where Western powers attempt to intertwine geopolitical and industrial policies, but practical implementation may be hindered by supply chain realities and member state interests [11][13] - Russia's willingness to support China during this period indicates a robust political and economic partnership, with Russian oil exports to sanctioned Chinese firms accounting for over 800 million tons, or 12% of the EU's targeted oil exports [7][11] - The situation is characterized by a complex interplay of interests, where both sides must navigate the costs and benefits of their actions, suggesting a long-term strategic competition rather than a straightforward confrontation [11][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch government's forced takeover of the Chinese-controlled ASML Semiconductor highlights Europe's geopolitical dilemma, caught between U.S. security reliance and economic dependence on China, leading to a situation where it cannot satisfy both parties [1][5][10]. Group 1: Government Actions and Reactions - The Dutch government invoked a law not used since 1952 to impose restrictions on ASML Semiconductor, preventing any adjustments related to assets, intellectual property, business, and personnel for one year [1][5]. - The CEO appointed by the Chinese parent company, Wingtech Technology, has been suspended, and the Dutch authorities require the appointment of a foreign director with decisive voting rights [1][5]. - The Dutch Prime Minister acknowledged the vulnerability of Europe in this situation but insisted that intervention was necessary due to "mismanagement" [7][12]. Group 2: Impact on Industries - The takeover has caused significant disruptions in the global automotive supply chain, affecting American, European, and Japanese automakers [5][6]. - A report indicated that 86% of 107 major European companies across various industries source chips from ASML Semiconductor's production bases in China, indicating widespread potential risks to European industries [6][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Analysts suggest that the timing of the Dutch government's actions is influenced by escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, management issues within ASML Semiconductor, and the EU's increasing focus on strategic autonomy [5][8]. - The incident underscores the fragility of European nations in the current geopolitical climate, with calls for the EU to rethink its geopolitical strategy to address these new realities [8][10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The EU is seeking a "quick and pragmatic solution" to the ASML Semiconductor issue, emphasizing the need for collective action rather than individual national responses [9][11]. - Experts warn that if Europe does not achieve unity and autonomy soon, it risks being further torn apart in the U.S.-China rivalry, highlighting the urgency of addressing these challenges in the coming years [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the recent reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from October 27, with gasoline prices decreasing by 265 yuan per ton and diesel by 255 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.21 to 0.22 yuan per liter for consumers [1] - The international oil market has experienced fluctuations, with initial price declines due to warnings of oversupply and potential reductions in Russian oil imports by India, followed by a rebound due to U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies [2] - The overall global oil market is currently characterized by a supply surplus, with OPEC+ increasing production and high export levels from countries like Russia, while demand forecasts remain conservative due to anticipated global economic slowdowns [2] Group 2 - The next price adjustment window for oil is set to open on November 10, 2025, with expectations of potential price increases due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing sanctions against Russia [3] - Analysts predict that the combination of U.S.-China trade negotiations showing positive progress and the instability in geopolitical situations may lead to a higher probability of price increases in the next round of oil price adjustments [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market is in a stage of game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand fundamental bearish factors. Short - term low - position long ideas are recommended, and the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply should be continuously monitored [2][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and strong trend. SC2512 opened at 438 for the week, reached a high of 471, a low of 431, and closed at 465, with a weekly increase of 29.9 or 6.87% [3] 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.2.1 OPEC - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ member countries' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply reached 108 million barrels in September, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held, and Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30. On October 5, eight voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next eight - country meeting will be held on November 2 [6] - In September, the output of above - scale industrial crude oil was 17.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, with a daily output of 592,000 tons. From January to September, the output was 162.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [6] 3.2.2 Russia - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to reach 515 - 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16 that the oil production in 2025 is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains high [7] - In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - In September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day. In September 2025, Russia's seaborne oil exports increased by 12.8% compared with August, with ESPO crude oil exports increasing by 22.6% to 146,000 tons per day, reaching the highest level since 2025. The seaborne volume of the main export variety, Urals crude oil, increased by 7.7% to 290,000 tons per day. In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 29 - month high [8] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two large Russian oil companies on October 22, and the EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas. After the US sanctions, India's Reliance Industries decided to stop buying Russian crude oil [8][9] 3.2.3 United States - As of the week ending October 17, the US daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a decrease of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 129,000 barrels from the same period last year. The average daily production in the four weeks ending October 17 was 13.6 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. This year, the average daily production was 13.454 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [10] - As of the week ending October 24, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 60 from the same period last year. The number of natural gas - drilling rigs was 121, the same as the previous week and an increase of 20 from the same period last year. The total number of oil and gas drilling platforms was 550, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 35 from the same period last year [10][12] - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. It is predicted that the low oil price at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decline in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and the inventory will be adjusted later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [12] 3.2.4 America's Production Increase - The IEA expects non - OPEC+ countries' daily crude oil production to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels in the next two years respectively, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+ will increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that the global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than the demand next year [18] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 2025, the OECD's commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, less than the average of the past five years by 128.5 million barrels and less than the average of 2015 - 2019 by 208.6 million barrels [19] - As of the week ending October 17, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.388 million barrels, a decrease of 142,000 barrels from the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 422.824 million barrels, a decrease of 961,000 barrels from the previous week. The gasoline inventory was 216.679 million barrels, a decrease of 2.146 million barrels from the previous week [19] 3.2.6 Consumption - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year, and the global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [25] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year. However, in the remaining time of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day [25] - As of the four weeks ending October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The four - week average daily demand for gasoline was 8.587 million barrels, 3.6% lower than the same period last year [25] 3.2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee - The average refining profit margin of Shandong local refineries in this cycle was 154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 271 yuan/ton from the previous cycle. The average refining profit margin of major refineries was 512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous cycle [27] 3.2.8 Refinery Operating Rate - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the operating rate was 93.16% [29] - This week, the average operating load of domestic major refineries in China was 80.89%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.04%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week [29] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US sanctions on Russian suppliers and India's review of Russian oil purchases have led to concerns about short - term supply reduction and pushed up crude oil prices. Based on past experience, the actual impact is limited, and attention should be paid to whether Russia can restructure its trade flows. The short - term strategy is to be bullish at low positions and continue to monitor the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sanctions and geopolitical factors drive up crude oil prices, causing styrene prices to rise with increasing costs. However, due to various negative factors, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4]. - The supply of pure benzene overseas has contracted, but weak demand restricts its price increase. The overall market is still affected by the sluggish downstream demand [37]. - The downstream of styrene is generally weak, with issues such as increased inventory and decreased production load in various sectors [51][60][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Multiple factors affect styrene. Supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies are all bearish; inventory and valuation are neutral. The investment view is that it will fluctuate, and the trading strategy suggests taking a wait - and - see approach [4]. - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia remains severely negative, with the styrene - naphtha spread at about $253 and the styrene - benzene spread at $130 [4]. - **Demand**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but market expectations are poor. As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.9 tons compared to the previous period, a 10% increase. The supply side has increased maintenance, but the low operating rate of derivatives has led to a decline in demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples increased by 0.6 tons compared to the previous period, a 3.05% increase. The commercial inventory increased by 0.1 tons, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis is stable. There are concerns that overseas sanctions may reduce supply - side raw materials [4]. - **Profit**: The styrene - naphtha spread is about $253, and the combined spread of benzene - naphtha and PX - naphtha is about $364 [4]. - **Valuation**: The significant rebound in crude oil prices and the contraction of overseas pure benzene supply may disrupt styrene production due to raw material supply [4]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The escalation of sanctions against Russia has led to a strong upward trend in crude oil prices [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene has declined, and port inventories have slightly decreased [14][25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas supply has contracted, but weak demand restricts the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream** - **ABS**: The domestic ABS market is weak, with factors such as price, inventory, and production all showing signs of decline [51]. - **PS**: PS inventory has increased, and the production load has decreased [60]. - **EPS**: EPS inventory has accumulated [69]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream** - **Aniline**: Aniline profit has rebounded, and inventory has increased [79]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory has further decreased [90]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production profit of adipic acid has not improved [101]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production remains stable, but the price has decreased [114]. - **Household Appliances**: The year - on - year demand for household appliance exports has decreased [124].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 地缘与宏观利好释放，油价反弹。地缘方面，欧美新增对俄罗斯制裁，印 | | | | 度或减少进口俄罗斯原油，油价反弹；宏观方面，中美在马来西亚达成"非 | | 原油 | 谨慎看多 | 常实质性的框架协议"；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期， | | ★ | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量 | | | | 变化。策略：空单持有，买入看涨期权控制风险，同时买入看跌期权。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气反弹。成本端油价受地缘扰动反弹，成本端利好；供 | | LPG | | 需基本面改善，供给量小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 库存端，港口库存下降。策略：地缘驱动价格反弹，买入看跌期权等待风 | | | | 险释放。 | | | | 现货跟涨，基差走强，跟随成本端弱势反弹。社会去化缓慢，10 月进口到 | | L | | 港较多，后市仍存增加预期；广西石化 70 万吨装置计划本月底投产叠加 | | ★ | 空头反弹 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 行情回顾 中美关系缓和市场避险情绪缓解，金银价格继续调整。 | | | of 100 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | র মাধ্যম | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美关系缓和避险情绪减少。但是短期中东问题、俄乌问题反复，主要央行继续购 | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 买黄金。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，战略 | | ★★ | | 配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银盘面继续震荡调整，目前伦敦库存极低，外围环境不稳，短期波动仍然较大。 | | | 高位调整 | 长期全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。长线等企稳再做多 | | | | 中美双方达成基本共识，美通胀数据不及预期，美联储 10 月降息几乎板上钉钉，市 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 场风险偏好提高，建议前期铜多单继续持有，谨慎追高，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★★ | | 爆发，铜中长期依旧看 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Cost side: This week, oil prices rebounded. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, supported the upward movement of oil prices. Subsequently, Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and increased sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US affected crude oil supply expectations, driving a significant increase in oil prices. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals has begun to materialize, and the macro - situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations and whether the Brent crude oil resistance level can be broken [1] - PX: This week, the operating rate of PX in China was 85.9% (a 1.0% increase from last week), and in Asia it was 78.5% (a 0.5% increase from last week). The load of domestic PX plants increased, mainly due to the fluctuating increase in the load of some domestic PX plants, while the overseas PX situation changed little. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. Although the floating price has rebounded in the short term, the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants [1] - TA: The operating rate of PTA in China was 78.8% (a 2.1% increase from last week), and the spot processing fee was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 59 yuan from last week). The load of PTA increased slightly this week. With the expectation of new plant commissioning, the processing fee was compressed again. The near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that new plants are expected to be commissioned soon, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term expectation is weak, and the current market spot supply is relatively abundant. Although the demand side has improved recently, the improvement of the long - term inventory accumulation expectation in the fundamentals is limited [2] - Demand: This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), and the polyester operating rate was 91.4% (unchanged from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines rebounded sharply, and the raw material price rebound also drove concentrated restocking. The inventory of filament yarns decreased significantly. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving factories is not high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be positive news from the China - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month to boost external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load expectation for polyester in October and November is slightly increased [2] - PF: This week, the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 94.3% (unchanged from last week). The inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories' equity were 7.7 days (a decrease of 1.4 days from last week), the operating rate of polyester yarn was 66.0% (unchanged from last week), the physical inventory of 1.4D was 15.0 days (a decrease of 0.8 days from last week), and the equity inventory of 1.4D was 3.4 days (a decrease of 1.6 days from last week). This week, the increase in the spot price of factories was less than that of futures, the basis and the price difference in the market narrowed, the sales of staple fiber factories were smooth, the inventory continued to decrease, and the load remained stable. The processing margin of staple fiber was moderately compressed to the range of 1100 - 1200. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn were stable, and the operating rate remained stable [3] - PR: The operating rate of bottle - chip factories (based on maximum capacity) was 73.2% (an increase of 0.8%), the inventory of bottle - chip factories was 17.8 days (a decrease of 0.2 days from last week), and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips was 471 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan from last week). This week, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials increased, and the prices of polyester bottle - chip factories mostly followed the increase of raw materials. The overall processing range was slightly compressed. The low - end market transactions were acceptable, but the transactions were weak after the price increase in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chips remained stable this week, and large factories generally maintained production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remained stable. With the improvement of processing efficiency, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment. In the future, as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is expected to remain volatile overall, following the fluctuations of raw materials [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR. The demand has improved due to the cooling weather, and the crude oil price has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For PX, the PX load in China has recently recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants. For TA, the near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that a 3 - million - ton new plant is expected to be commissioned in late October, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November, with a weak long - term expectation. The current market spot supply is relatively abundant, the PTA processing fee and valuation are at a low level, and the demand side has marginally improved with the cooling weather. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the China - US tariff game at the end of the month and the crude oil fluctuations under geopolitical changes. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, the short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle - chips have changed little, maintenance continues but demand is average, and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of raw material prices. Cross - variety: Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. Cross - term: None [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Figures show the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and cross - term spreads, as well as various processing fees, profits, and price differences [9][10][11] 2. PX and PTA Supply - Illustrate the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the loads of PX in China and Asia [45][46][49] 3. Inventory - Present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [54][56][66] 4. Demand - Include the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, the loads of polyester, direct - spinning filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of filament factories, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as the profits of filament [62][67][74] 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Show the load of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the price difference between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [87][91][93] 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Display the load of polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of bottle - chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle - chips, the export profit of bottle - chips, and the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips [110][111][115]

Economic Developments - The fifth round of China-US trade talks reached a preliminary consensus, with discussions covering various topics including export controls and tariff extensions[8] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.3%, the Nikkei Index increased by 3.6%, and the Korean Composite Index surged by 5.1% in response to positive market expectations[8] Geopolitical Factors - The US and EU imposed new sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a 5.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, while the Russian RTS index fell by 6.5%[13] - Ongoing challenges in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations include territorial sovereignty, post-war guarantees for Ukraine, and ceasefire timelines, with significant differences remaining between the parties[16] Future Outlook - Attention is focused on upcoming China-US trade talks and high-level interactions, as well as the implications of US domestic politics on government operations and tariffs[18] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[18] Risks - Potential unexpected changes in US policies and international relations could significantly affect market dynamics[5] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Latin America, may introduce further uncertainties into the global economic landscape[20][21]