Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating mixed performance in commodity, core goods, and service prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, driven by extreme weather affecting food supply [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by sufficient supply in steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop, while rising international oil prices provided some support to PPI [2][9][69]. - CPI's increase was supported by a 12.6% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing to a 0.8 percentage point increase in the CPI for other goods and services [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Goods Price Trends - Core goods PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The pressure on prices in high-export industries, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, continues, with respective declines of 0.4% and 0.2% [3][21][70]. - Conversely, core goods CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [3][21][70]. Group 3: Service Price Dynamics - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [4][30][61]. - The virtual rent CPI, which is a significant component of service CPI, showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [4][30][61]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of rent prices, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil supply, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [4][35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, particularly in private enterprises, is expected to hinder PPI recovery, with projections indicating continued weakness in PPI compared to CPI [4][35][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and market trends, highlighting the performance of different sectors and commodities, which can inform investment decisions. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises was 2.159 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.25% [3] - Price changes included rebar up by 0.65%, cement price index down by 1.17%, and coke down by 4.27% [3] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained stable, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -921 yuan/ton [4] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [5] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel down by 0.54% and copper up by 2.36% [5] Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached 20,940 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, with estimated profit at 3,500 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [6] - The price of graphite electrodes remained unchanged at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 5.56% [6] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.23, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 190 yuan/ton, down by 20.83% from the previous week [7] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders were at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [8] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was 1,369.34 points, up by 2.00% [8] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +6.53% [9] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the overall market was 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including consumer spending, external demand, and real estate sales. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Durable goods consumption shows an upward trend, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May [1] - External demand is improving, as indicated by the Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaging around 51.1% in June, up from 50.9% in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK [2] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.3% in the week of June 22, compared to an average of 3.2% over the past three weeks and 4.93% in May [3] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly declined to 7.63% as of June 22, down from 7.94% on June 15 [2] - Service consumption metrics, such as subway ridership and flight numbers, are close to last year's levels, with subway ridership averaging 77.42 million daily in 27 cities, a 0.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Real estate sales are declining, with residential sales in 67 cities showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued have reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8% [3] - Interest rates have increased, with DR001 at 1.3683%, DR007 at 1.6968%, and R007 at 1.9201% as of June 27, showing mixed changes compared to June 20 [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has fallen over 10% this year, leading to significant increases in precious metal prices and a shift in global central bank reserves towards gold [1][2] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the future of the dollar, with some institutions predicting further depreciation due to monetary policy misalignment and external circulation issues, while others believe the fastest decline may be over and caution against potential rebounds [1][2] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases exceeding 20% this year, with platinum prices rising over 50%, indicating a reallocation of global funds [2][3] Group 2 - The decline of the dollar is attributed to three main factors: relative economic advantages, monetary policy misalignment, and increasing credit risk associated with the dollar [2] - A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) indicates that the dollar's popularity among central banks has dropped, with 70% of respondents citing US political conditions as a barrier to dollar investment, leading to a record increase in gold holdings [3] - UBS suggests that ongoing uncertainty in US policies may weaken the appeal of the "American exceptionalism," recommending investors diversify into other currencies to mitigate excessive dollar exposure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Vale is on the path to becoming the largest mining company globally [1] - The nickel market is facing an oversupply issue, yet the nickel business still holds strategic value [1] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting global GDP and commodity prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend today. Despite a slight price increase, the decrease in trading volume and open interest, along with the outflow of funds, indicate that market trading is becoming lighter and short - selling power is strengthening. It is expected that the Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend on June 25, 2025. The opening price was 263,200 yuan/ton, the highest was 263,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 261,900 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 263,800 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 262,150 yuan/ton. The contract price tried to rise in the afternoon but failed to break through the resistance level of 264,000 yuan/ton and then gradually declined. The trading volume was 54,700 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day, indicating a slight decline in market trading activity. The open interest at the close was 13,100 lots [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract (snm) was 263,000 yuan, with a decrease of 190 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07%. Other contracts such as the Shanghai Tin weighted (sni), Shanghai Tin 2512 (sn2512), etc., also had different price changes [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Macroeconomic Policy** - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran came into effect, reducing market risk - aversion sentiment and improving risk preference, which provided some support for commodity prices including tin [8]. - **2.2 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Supply Side**: Tin ore supply in production areas such as Yunnan is tightening. Some smelting enterprises are considering shutdown for maintenance or slight production cuts in June. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and the transportation of tin mines from southern Myanmar through Thailand is blocked. It is expected that the domestic tin ore imports in June will decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons, and the short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore is obvious, which supports the tin price [9]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal enterprises have entered the seasonal off - season. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the photovoltaic production schedule in June is declining month - on - month. As the tin price rebounds to around 260,000 yuan/ton, the downstream purchasing willingness has significantly weakened, generally adopting a "small - batch, multi - batch" purchasing strategy, which restrains the rise of tin price [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics [2]. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The current price of London gold has decreased by 1.91% compared to last week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June 2025, the average daily output of key enterprises in crude steel is 2.159 million tons, an increase of 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -1.21%, rubber at +0.72%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -3.11%, and iron ore at -2.07% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates have changed by +0.21 percentage points, -5.90 percentage points, -1.8 percentage points, and +4.24 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have changed by -1.45% and +0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -921 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.34% [5] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.29%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.27%, copper at -0.76%, and aluminum at -0.29%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +4.07%, -18.19%, and +4.71% [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina in May has dropped to a new low for 2023 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 5.56% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,700 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with estimated profit at 3,146 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 4.71% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.19 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 210 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [8] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [8] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,342.46 points, up 8.00% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.40%, down 0.10 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being shipping at +1.06% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the CSI 300 is 32.05% and 62.94% respectively [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

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