周一早上，东京股市迎来了一个历史性的时刻，日经指数一举突破47,000点，创下了前所未有的新高。这一涨幅比上周五大幅上涨了近3%，瞬间成为了全 城热议的话题。金融圈震动不已，连普通市民也在讨论股市的"疯狂"，有的人甚至开玩笑说："现在闭着眼睛买股票，肯定能赚钱。" 这股席卷全国的投资热情，让不少人感到久违的兴奋，而推动这一切的关键人物，正是日本政坛的高市早苗。就在刚刚过去的周末，执政党自民党选出了新 的党魁，64岁的高市早苗在激烈的竞争中脱颖而出，成为党首。这一党内选举，为何会引发如此大的市场反应？答案就在于她与前首相安倍晋三的紧密关 系。高市早苗被广泛视为安倍的忠实门徒和"安倍经济学"的继承者。 在选举结果尚未公布之前，敏锐的投资者们已经预见到了这一变化的可能性，纷纷涌入股市，抛售代表避险的长期日本政府债券。投资者们赌的是，高市一 旦上台，必定会重启安倍时代那套激进的经济刺激政策。 周一开盘，股市如同脱缰的野马，迅速飙升。日经指数不仅创下历史新高，甚至连广泛代表市场走势的东证指数也同步上涨，东京证券交易所一片红火，充 满了投资者的欢欣鼓舞。 然而，高市早苗的胜利之路并不轻松。事实上，这是她第三次竞选党魁。自 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人| 陈达飞 摘要 10月6日以来，美元强势升值，9日盘中一度升至99.6高位，为8月初以来的新高。美元能否打破三季度以来的低位震荡格局、长期贬值预期能否继续演绎？ 热点思考：美元的"十字路口" （一）近期美元反弹的三个阶段和两方面原因 本轮美元反弹的时间起点是9月中旬美联储重启降息之后，整体可以分为三个阶段理解：第一阶段， 9月17日-25日，在美联储如期降息25bp叠加中性偏鹰的 经济预测摘要发布之后，前期较乐观的"降息交易"重新校准，2年期美债利率和美元指数同步反弹。 第二阶段， 9月26日-10月3日，在美国政府"关门"预期和事实冲击下，美元反弹按下"暂停键"。截至10月3日，美元指数和2年期美债利率小幅下行至97.7和 3.58%。 第三阶段， 10月6日-9日，由于日本和法国政府内阁重组或动荡，美元被动走强。高市早苗"意外"当选日本自民党总裁。由于其经济政策立场带有较浓厚 的"安倍经济学"标签，市场开始交易宽松；法国总理勒科尔尼在10月6日突然宣布辞职，触发欧元贬值。 （二）美元反弹或难延续的四个解释 9月中旬以来的美元升值仍是长期贬值趋势中的一次反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent political shift in Japan, marked by the election of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and other major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook and the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's future interest rate policies [1][2][5]. Currency Movement - On October 6, the yen depreciated by 1.94% against the US dollar, breaking the critical 150 level, and continued to weaken, falling below 151, 152, and 153 in the following days [2]. - The yen reached a low of 153.003 against the dollar on October 8, marking its lowest level since mid-February, with a cumulative decline of over 3.7% since October 2 [2]. - The yen also depreciated against other major currencies, hitting a historic low against the euro at 177.86, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999 [2]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi's economic policies are seen as a continuation of "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal measures and maintaining a loose monetary policy, which is expected to exert downward pressure on the yen [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi's stance against interest rate hikes and her advocacy for active fiscal policies are the primary reasons for the yen's recent depreciation [2][3]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of the yen will depend on the implementation and impact of Takaichi's policies, with current market reactions primarily reflecting short-term sentiment [5][8]. - Despite the current downward pressure, the yen is considered significantly undervalued, suggesting limited further depreciation potential even if Takaichi becomes Prime Minister [5][6]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The independence of the Bank of Japan is relatively weaker compared to the Federal Reserve, and Takaichi's election is expected to influence the central bank's policy stance, although the extent of this impact will depend on her execution and authority within the government [8][9]. - Current inflation in Japan is viewed as driven by cost-push factors rather than demand, indicating that premature interest rate hikes could hinder economic recovery [8][9].

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market has surged following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with the Nikkei average breaking 48,000 yen, reaching a historical high, while the yen depreciated from 147 to around 151 yen against the dollar, indicating market optimism about a potential revival of Abenomics [1] - Japan's current economic situation is significantly different from 2013, as it faces inflation and a depreciating yen, with national debt exceeding twice the GDP, limiting the scope for bold fiscal and monetary policies [1] - The rise in stock prices does not necessarily reflect a positive economic outlook, as further yen depreciation could lead to increased living costs for citizens, complicating Takaichi's potential tax reduction policies [1] Group 2 - Takaichi's political foundation within the LDP is weak, requiring support from influential party figures like Taro Aso, who favors strict fiscal discipline, creating uncertainty about Takaichi's ability to maintain her original policy stance [2] - The current political landscape in Japan is fragmented, with no single party holding a majority, making it challenging for Takaichi to secure the prime minister position without forming coalitions, which will influence future policy decisions [2] - The Komeito party, a long-time coalition partner of the LDP, has expressed concerns about Takaichi's political direction, leading to their decision to withdraw from the coalition, adding uncertainty to the prime ministerial election [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, has begun to move away from government interference, planning to end negative interest rates and start raising rates by 2024, which could be hindered if Takaichi intervenes in monetary policy [4] - Takaichi's previous support for Abenomics and criticism of the Bank's rate hikes have shifted, suggesting that her policies may become more moderate if she assumes office, with expectations of a gentle growth-oriented approach rather than aggressive fiscal expansion [4] - There is a possibility of opposition parties uniting to win power, which could lead to the LDP losing its position, further complicating Takaichi's ability to implement impactful policies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan has raised expectations for fiscal expansion policies, leading to a surge in the Japanese stock index and a rapid depreciation of the yen to early-year levels. However, recent developments have cast uncertainty on her prospects of becoming the next Prime Minister of Japan [1]. Group 1: Political Developments - The Komeito party leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced the end of the 26-year coalition with the LDP due to dissatisfaction with Kishi Sanae's handling of a political scandal, complicating her chances of becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister [2]. - The dissolution of the "LDP-Komeito alliance" means that Kishi Sanae's path to premiership is now more uncertain, as the LDP holds 196 seats and Komeito 24 in the 465-seat House of Representatives, which is still short of a majority [2]. - The election process for the Prime Minister involves a two-round voting system, where if no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will occur between the top two candidates [2]. Group 2: Opposition Response - The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), views this as a significant opportunity to unseat the LDP, with its leader, Noda Yoshihiko, expressing willingness to support other party leaders [3][4]. - Noda emphasized the need for cooperation among opposition parties to prevent Kishi Sanae from ascending to the premiership, despite the CDP holding 148 seats [4]. - Tamaki Yuichiro, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, expressed caution regarding the formation of a united opposition front, acknowledging the lack of consensus on various policy issues [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The political turmoil has created a "dilemma" for the Japanese markets, with expectations of monetary easing leading to a significant depreciation of the yen, which may prompt government intervention if the yen weakens further [5]. - The Japanese bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, and concerns may escalate if Kishi Sanae compromises fiscal discipline to gain support from opposition parties [5]. - Moody's Analytics highlighted that Kishi Sanae's past controversial statements and economic proposals raise concerns about her ability to address Japan's deep-rooted macroeconomic challenges effectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan, with the Komeito party withdrawing from the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses significant uncertainty for the political landscape and the potential appointment of Sanna Takai as Japan's first female Prime Minister [1][2]. Political Landscape - The Komeito party's exit from the coalition may disrupt the process of appointing Sanna Takai as Prime Minister, especially as the National Diet is set to hold a vote for the next Prime Minister on October 15 [1]. - The LDP and Komeito together hold 215 seats in the House of Representatives, which is below the majority threshold of 233 seats. If Komeito withdraws, the LDP will have 191 seats but will still remain the largest party [1]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Komeito's withdrawal, the Nikkei index futures dropped over 1200 points, reflecting a decline of more than 2% [2]. - The initial reaction in the foreign exchange market saw the yen strengthen to 152.36 before retreating, stabilizing around 152.8 later in the day [4]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that investors are becoming cautious about the risks of a short-term political vacuum and delays in policy execution. The previous expectations of economic stimulus from Takai's policies may lead to a reversal of the "sell yen, buy stocks" trend that emerged after her election victory [6]. - If the opposition parties present a unified candidate instead of Takai, the gains in the USD/JPY exchange rate driven by the "Takai trade" could be fully reversed. However, the market has not yet fully priced in the risk of Takai not becoming Prime Minister [6]. Stock Market Outlook - The uncertainty introduced by Komeito's exit is expected to exert pressure on the Japanese stock market. The LDP may be forced to make concessions, potentially weakening Takai's economic policies [7]. - The Nikkei index could retreat to around 40,000 points, as the market adjusts to the new political landscape and the expectations surrounding Takai's policies diminish [7].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden breakup of the ruling coalition in Japan, with the Komeito party withdrawing from the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses significant uncertainty for the political landscape and the potential ascension of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister [2][5]. Political Developments - The Komeito party's representative, Tetsuo Saito, stated that the LDP failed to provide adequate responses regarding political funding issues [3]. - If the Komeito party's withdrawal is confirmed, it would end a political alliance that has lasted since 1999, just days before the Prime Minister nomination vote scheduled for October 15 [5]. - Takaichi, who won the LDP leadership election on October 4, is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics" and advocates for loose monetary policy, fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. Market Reactions - Following the news, the Nikkei index futures dropped over 1200 points, a decline exceeding 2% [6]. - The initial reaction in the foreign exchange market saw the yen rise to 152.36 before retreating, stabilizing around 152.8 later [6]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts indicate that investors are becoming cautious about the risks of a short-term political vacuum and delays in policy execution [8]. - The previous expectations of economic boosts from Takaichi's policies may lead to a reversal of the "buy stocks, sell yen" strategy that emerged after her election victory [8]. - If the opposition parties present a unified candidate instead of Takaichi, the gains in the USD/JPY exchange rate driven by her election could be fully reversed [8]. Future Outlook - The uncertainty introduced by the Komeito's exit may pressure the Japanese stock market, with the Nikkei index potentially retreating to around 40,000 points [9]. - Even if the LDP forms alliances with other parties, achieving a majority in both houses remains challenging, significantly reducing the likelihood of Takaichi's economic policies being implemented [9]. - The active trading strategy surrounding Takaichi's election is expected to unwind as market participants reassess the political landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks a historic shift in Japanese politics, potentially complicating the path for newly elected LDP president Sanae Takaichi to become the next Prime Minister [1][3]. Group 1: Political Implications - Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito informed Takaichi of the party's decision to end a 26-year partnership, stating that Komeito will not support Takaichi's bid for Prime Minister in the upcoming parliamentary vote [3]. - The dissolution of the coalition will significantly impact Takaichi's chances of securing the Prime Minister position, as Komeito holds 45 seats in the National Diet, while the LDP has 296 out of 713 total seats [4]. - The loss of Komeito as an ally may lead to substantial political uncertainty for Takaichi, despite the possibility of winning the parliamentary vote due to the ongoing fragmentation of opposition parties [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Komeito's exit, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a short-term drop of nearly 40 points, although it has since recovered [1]. - Takaichi's election as LDP president has reduced market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, contributing to a rise in the stock market and a weakening of the yen [5]. - The exit of Komeito could disrupt the so-called "Takaichi trade," which has been driven by investor optimism regarding fiscal stimulus [5].

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty in Japan is becoming a focal point for the market, with implications for the yen's performance and potential shifts in the stock market and bond yields [3][6]. Group 1: Political Landscape - The Democratic Party has stated it will not join the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, leading to expectations that the ruling coalition may dissolve [3][6]. - If the LDP governs alone, it may face a weakened legislative position, increasing political uncertainty [6][11]. Group 2: Currency and Market Implications - Nomura Securities indicates that the outcome of the ruling coalition will significantly impact the yen, with a potential reversal of "high city trading" if the LDP governs alone, leading to a stock market decline and further yen depreciation [3][11]. - Citigroup forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate may rise to the 154-155 range in the short term, while maintaining a long-term view of a large triangular top formation since last summer [3][12]. Group 3: Economic Policy Insights - Citigroup emphasizes that the new economic policy under Prime Minister Kishi is unlikely to replicate Abenomics due to changes in the internal political landscape and the current economic environment [10]. - The market may find support for the yen if the LDP and Komeito alliance is maintained or if a less dovish finance minister is appointed, alleviating concerns over Japanese government bond supply and demand [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent political changes in Japan, particularly the election of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, have led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, driven by market concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and uncertainty regarding future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3][4]. Currency Movement - On October 6, the yen depreciated sharply by 1.94%, breaking the key level of 150 against the dollar, and continued to weaken, falling below 151, 152, and 153 in the following days [3]. - On October 8, the yen reached a low of 153.003 against the dollar, marking a decline of over 3.7% since October 2, and this was the first time it hit this level since mid-February [3]. - The yen also depreciated against other major currencies, hitting a historic low against the euro at 177.86, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999 [3]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi's economic policies are expected to maintain a loose monetary stance and advocate for active fiscal policies, which are seen as contributing to downward pressure on the yen [4][5]. - Her approach is viewed as a continuation of "Abenomics," focusing on fiscal expansion and tax reduction to address rising prices [4][5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of the yen will depend on the implementation and impact of Takaichi's policies, with current market reactions primarily reflecting short-term sentiment [6][9]. - Despite the current depreciation, the yen is considered significantly undervalued, suggesting limited further downside even if Takaichi becomes Prime Minister [6][9]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The independence of the Bank of Japan may be influenced by Takaichi's leadership, with potential delays in interest rate hikes due to her dovish stance [8][9]. - The necessity for monetary policy adjustments will ultimately hinge on macroeconomic conditions, with the Bank of Japan's actions likely to remain responsive to economic performance rather than political rhetoric [7][9].