Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a significant political shift, with her expansionary fiscal policies expected to impact the economy and markets positively in the short term, but raising concerns about long-term risks such as debt and inflation [1][12][13]. Political Landscape - Sanna Takichi was elected as Japan's 104th Prime Minister on October 21, 2023, after overcoming challenges including a fractured ruling coalition and opposition from rival parties [1][4]. - The alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party was formed to secure political power and facilitate policy advancement in the Diet, following the exit of the Komeito party from the coalition [6][8]. - The new coalition faces uncertainties, particularly regarding political funding reforms and the potential for internal conflicts that could destabilize the government [8][9]. Economic Policies - Takichi's economic agenda, termed "Sanna Economics," aims to continue and strengthen the "Abenomics" approach, focusing on aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors and AI [12][13]. - The market reacted positively to her election, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching historical highs, driven by expectations of increased government spending and economic growth [11][12]. - However, experts warn that while short-term growth may be stimulated, long-term risks include heightened national debt and inflationary pressures, which could undermine economic stability [12][13]. Market Reactions - Following Takichi's election, the Japanese stock market experienced significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about her proposed policies, while the yen continued to depreciate against the dollar [11][12]. - The phenomenon known as "Takichi trading" indicates a speculative market response to anticipated policy changes that could enhance corporate profitability and economic performance [11][12]. Future Challenges - Takichi's administration will likely face challenges in implementing policies due to a minority government status, which may hinder the passage of key legislation and budgets [9][10]. - The potential for political instability remains high, with the risk of coalition breakdowns and the possibility of early elections if support wanes [9][10].

Core Points - Japan has elected its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who won the election on October 21, becoming the 104th Prime Minister of Japan [1][2] - Takaichi's election was marked by challenges, including a fractured ruling coalition and opposition from rival parties, but she secured support from the Japan Innovation Party [1][2] - The election results have led to a significant market reaction, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching historical highs, while the yen continues to depreciate against the dollar [1][6] Political Landscape - Takaichi's political stance is characterized by a strong conservative approach, closely aligned with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies, particularly in economic and security matters [2][7] - The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party is seen as a strategic move to maintain political power and facilitate policy implementation in a context of reduced parliamentary majority [3][4] - The partnership is not without its challenges, as there are unresolved issues regarding political funding reforms, which could lead to tensions between the coalition partners [4][5] Economic Policies - Takaichi aims to continue and enhance "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive monetary easing and fiscal expansion, which she refers to as "Sanae Economics" [7][8] - The market has reacted positively to her proposed policies, anticipating increased government spending in key sectors like semiconductors, AI, and defense, which could stimulate economic growth [7][8] - However, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of these policies, particularly regarding Japan's rising national debt and potential inflationary pressures [8][9] Market Reactions - The stock market has shown optimism, with the Nikkei 225 index hitting record highs, driven by expectations of Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies [6][7] - The yen has depreciated against the dollar, reflecting market sentiment regarding the anticipated economic policies and their implications for inflation and currency stability [6][9] - Analysts caution that the current market enthusiasm may be short-lived if Takaichi faces significant obstacles in implementing her agenda due to her minority government status [9]

本文字 数：2034，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 封图 | 新华社 在成功说服了日本第二大在野党后，日本自民党总裁高市早苗圆了首相梦。 据央视新闻，10月21日，在日本众议院首相指名选举第一轮投票中，自民党总裁高市早苗获得过半票 数，当选日本第104任首相。高市早苗的当选，也让她成为日本历史上第一位女首相。她现年64岁，是 日本右翼政客代表人物之一，主张实施扩张性财政政策，并提高防卫开支。 21日上午石破内阁集体辞职。统计显示，石破担任首相的天数为386天，成为战后在任时间第24长的首 相，超过菅义伟，仅次于森喜朗。 值得注意的是，在自民党与维新会确认合作后，"高市交易"重获动能。21日午盘，日经225指数突破 49900.00关口，逼近50000点大关，日内涨1.46%。日元汇率下跌。 有惊无险过半数 在21日的首相指名选举前，高市所在的自民党成功联手维新会，成为她此次顺利接任首相的最重要因 素。在21日众议院的投票中，自民党（196票）结合维新党（35票），再加上多位无党派议员票，超过 众议院席位的半数（233票）。尽管依据日本法律，参议院和众议院原则上享有同等的权力，但众议院 在立法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The political landscape in Japan is shifting with the rise of Sanae Takaichi, who has the potential to become Japan's first female Prime Minister, drawing comparisons to former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher [2][4][10]. Group 1: Political Developments - Takaichi was recently elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and is seen as a strong candidate for Prime Minister [2][4]. - The LDP has formed an alliance with the Japan Innovation Party, which will support Takaichi in the upcoming elections [1][4]. Group 2: Personal Background and Comparisons - Takaichi's upbringing mirrors that of Thatcher, both coming from non-political backgrounds and rising through the ranks due to their intelligence and resilience [4][5]. - Both women faced significant challenges in male-dominated political environments, with Takaichi emphasizing hard work and dedication to her role [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Policies - Takaichi's economic approach, termed "Sanae Economics," focuses on responsible fiscal policies, including lowering gasoline taxes and supporting struggling businesses, which contrasts with Thatcher's more laissez-faire approach [12][13]. - Her policies align closely with the previous Abenomics framework, suggesting continuity in Japan's economic strategy [12][14]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Japan faces unique challenges compared to the UK during Thatcher's time, including a stagnant economy and demographic issues such as an aging population [7][9]. - Takaichi's hardline stance on foreign relations, particularly regarding China, may complicate her ability to navigate Japan's geopolitical landscape [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Sanna Marin as Japan's first female Prime Minister has led to a reevaluation of the yen's exchange rate, with market participants reacting positively to potential expansionary policies despite official statements against returning to "Abenomics" [1][2] Group 1: Market Reaction - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to approximately 151.25, with a 0.38% increase from the previous close of 150.74 [1] - The exchange rate peaked at 151.60, reflecting a 0.58% increase due to overseas buying and the confirmation of Sanna Marin as Prime Minister [1] - The rise in the exchange rate slowed after hitting a resistance level at the 200-hour moving average of 151.54 [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Outlook - Market expectations suggest that the new government may implement expansionary fiscal measures, although officials have stated they will not revert to "Abenomics" [1] - The potential new Finance Minister, Katsuyuki Kitayama, indicated that the "real value" of USD/JPY should be between 120 and 130, suggesting a focus on yen depreciation concerns [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The intraday low for USD/JPY was recorded at 150.47, with key support levels identified at 149.39 (Ichimoku base line) and short-term support at 151.00, 150.90, and 150.75 [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the new government's policy direction and its impact on the yen's performance [2]

2025.10. 21 本文字数：2034，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 封图 | 新华社 值得注意的是，在自民党与维新会确认合作后，"高市交易"重获动能。21日午盘，日经225指数突 破49900.00关口，逼近50000点大关，日内涨1.46%。日元汇率下跌。 有惊无险过半数 在21日的首相指名选举前，高市所在的自民党成功联手维新会，成为她此次顺利接任首相的最重要 因素。在21日众议院的投票中，自民党（196票）结合维新党（35票），再加上多位无党派议员 票，超过众议院席位的半数（233票）。尽管依据日本法律，参议院和众议院原则上享有同等的权 力，但众议院在立法、首相任免等方面具有优先决定权。当众参两院的首相提名结果出现分歧时，将 召开两院协议会。若协议会仍无法达成一致，根据日本宪法的规定，将优先采用众议院的提名结果。 据新华社报道，20日，自民党与维新会举行党首会谈并签署协议文件，正式就联合执政达成一致。 维新会方面确认将在21日召集的临时国会首相指名选举中支持自民党候选人高市早苗。协议文件 除"迅速实施经济对策、进行结构改革"等内容外，还要求双方在21日召集的临时国会中共同推动削 减 ...

Group 1 - The election of Kishi Sanae as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a historic achievement amid low female political representation in the country [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index closed at a record high of 49,316.06 points, reflecting positive market sentiment following her election [1][4] - The Japanese yen continues to depreciate, trading around 151 against the US dollar, which may exacerbate inflation concerns [1][6] Group 2 - Kishi Sanae's government faces challenges, including rising inflation, security tensions, and political instability, necessitating the formation of a cabinet and securing parliamentary support [1][2] - The coalition with the Japan Restoration Party lacks two seats for a majority in the lower house, complicating the passage of budgets and legislation [2] - Kishi's economic policies align with "Abenomics," focusing on government spending to stimulate growth, which could positively impact sectors like technology, energy, and defense [3][4] Group 3 - The "Sanae trade" phenomenon has emerged, characterized by market volatility driven by expectations of renewed "Abenomics" policies, leading to a surge in Japanese stocks and a decline in the yen [3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index has risen approximately 25% year-to-date, indicating strong market performance amid expectations of fiscal stimulus [4] - Kishi's administration may face political risks in implementing tax policies, such as considering a temporary reduction in food sales tax to gain coalition support [9]

小林表示："连自己的主张都暂且搁置一边的做法，我们这些企业界人士实在无法理解……看来他们只 是想'先上台再说'吧。" 在成功说服了日本第二大在野党后，日本自民党总裁高市早苗圆了首相梦。 值得注意的是，在自民党与维新会确认合作后，"高市交易"重获动能。21日午盘，日经225指数突破 49900.00关口，逼近50000点大关，日内涨1.46%。日元汇率下跌。 有惊无险过半数 在21日的首相指名选举前，高市所在的自民党成功联手维新会，成为她此次顺利接任首相的最重要因 素。在21日众议院的投票中，自民党（196票）结合维新党（35票），再加上多位无党派议员票，超过 众议院席位的半数（233票）。尽管依据日本法律，参议院和众议院原则上享有同等的权力，但众议院 在立法、首相任免等方面具有优先决定权。当众参两院的首相提名结果出现分歧时，将召开两院协议 会。若协议会仍无法达成一致，根据日本宪法的规定，将优先采用众议院的提名结果。 据新华社报道，20日，自民党与维新会举行党首会谈并签署协议文件，正式就联合执政达成一致。维新 会方面确认将在21日召集的临时国会首相指名选举中支持自民党候选人高市早苗。协议文件除"迅速实 施经济对 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister, highlighting her background and political journey [1][2][3] - It outlines the challenges she will face in her new role, including political alliances and public trust issues [14][18][19] Background - Sanna Takichi, born in 1961 in Nara Prefecture, comes from a non-political family background, contrasting with many of her contemporaries [1] - She was known as a "rebellious girl" in her youth and later pursued a political career after studying at the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management [3][5] - Takichi entered politics in 1993 and has held various significant positions within the government, closely aligning with the policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe [5][6] Political Career - Takichi has served in multiple cabinet roles, including Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and Minister for Economic Security, and is recognized as a staunch supporter of Abe's conservative policies [5][6][11] - She has participated in three previous elections for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) before finally winning in October 2023 [11] Challenges Ahead - Takichi's government will face a "minority governance" situation, complicating policy implementation due to the lack of a majority in both houses of parliament [19] - She must also address internal party issues related to corruption scandals and regain public trust amid rising dissatisfaction with the government's handling of economic and social issues [19] - Her conservative stance on national security and foreign policy may exacerbate tensions with neighboring countries [19] Public Sentiment - There is growing concern among the Japanese public regarding the frequency of leadership changes, with five prime ministers in the last five years, which may affect national stability [20][21]

周二（10月21日）亚洲时段，美元/日元延续前两个交易日涨势，重新站上151.00，最新美元兑日元汇 率报151.4300，涨幅0.46%，因美元在美国和中国贸易谈判前保持乐观。然而，交易员选择在日本议会 就新首相投票之前，对日元采取观望态度。 当地时间今日（21日）上午，日本政府召开内阁会议，石破内阁集体辞职。当地时间21日下午（北京时 间21日中午），日本国会众议院及参议院将举行首相指名选举。鉴于自民党与日本维新会已就联合执政 达成协议，且在野党方面没有形成统一的候选人，本月初接替石破茂出任自民党党首的高市早苗大概率 将出任日本新一任首相，并组建内阁。 高市早苗出任首相并组建联合政府，预示着日本将加倍下注于"安倍经济学"式的政策组合。这一前景在 中短期内对日元构成显著下行压力，为美元兑日元的上涨提供了动力，市场初期的乐观情绪（如日经指 数大涨）掩盖了深层结构性利空。 市场应关注其具体政策方案的出台，以及日本央行在政府压力下的应对，同时警惕汇率过度波动可能引 发的官方干预。 据知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为，尽管日本经济正朝着实现价格目标的方向前进，但下周没有迫切 需要提高基准利率。 知情人士说，随着经济和 ...