以下文章来源于锦缎 ，作者耀华 锦缎 . 上市公司研究平台，专注价值发现、创造与传播 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 日本恰似一面棱镜，折射出提振内需的可靠范本。 作者丨 耀华 来源丨 锦锻 全球经济博弈的硝烟中，关税争端与贸易壁垒的喧嚣背后，一个更深刻的命题正浮出水面 —— 如何锻造经济的 " 内生韧性 " ？ 当外循环的不确定性如达摩克利斯之剑高悬，激活内需不仅是熨平风险的缓冲带，更是重构增长引擎的密钥。 从工业革命时期英国纺织业的国内消费扩张，到大萧条时代罗斯福新政的公共工程计划，历史的刻度反复印证着一个铁律——无论是繁荣周期的顺势而 上，还是低迷时刻的逆水行舟，提振内需始终是穿越经济迷雾的罗盘。 邻国日本，这个曾以 " 贸易立国 " 崛起、又在泡沫破裂后负重前行的东亚经济体，恰似一面棱镜，折射出提振内需的可靠范本：其经济产业结构、发 展周期与我国存在相似性，且同样历经贸易摩擦与外部压力冲击。 今天我们就以日本为参考，来总结和复盘下提升内需的思路、手段、政策都有哪些，哪些优势值得我们借鉴，又有哪些教训我们需要规避。 国民收入倍增计划 日本提振内需的计划不仅仅限于广场协议之后，上世纪 60 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic demand as a key strategy for economic resilience amidst external uncertainties, drawing lessons from Japan's historical experiences in boosting domestic consumption [4]. Group 1: Japan's Domestic Demand Enhancement Plans - The "National Income Doubling Plan" initiated by Prime Minister Ikeda in 1960 aimed to increase production investment and enhance public capital through various means [7][8]. - Between 1961 and 1970, Japan's national income grew at an average annual rate of 11.5%, with per capita consumption expenditure growing at a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% [9][10]. - The plan faced challenges such as inflation, but it highlighted the importance of linking income distribution to domestic demand [10]. Group 2: Real Estate Boom and Its Consequences - The real estate boom in the 1970s initially stimulated domestic demand, with land prices peaking at a year-on-year increase of 30.9% in 1973 [12]. - However, the high real estate prices eventually reduced consumer willingness to spend, leading to a decline in domestic demand contribution from 9.9% to 3.3% [13]. Group 3: The Maekawa Report and Policy Shifts - The Maekawa Report, developed in the late 1970s, aimed to adjust the economic structure towards enhancing domestic demand after the Plaza Accord [15]. - It emphasized reducing working hours to increase consumer time demand, alongside urban redevelopment and housing policies [16]. Group 4: Abenomics and Its Impact - Abenomics, introduced in the early 2010s, focused on aggressive monetary easing, flexible fiscal policies, and structural reforms, with mixed results in boosting domestic demand [25][26]. - The negative interest rate policy and quantitative easing (QQE) aimed to stimulate lending and capital investment but did not effectively translate into increased consumer spending [28][29]. - Abenomics faced criticism for failing to address the underlying issues of low financial asset ownership among Japanese households, which limited the effectiveness of capital market stimulation [28][30]. Group 5: Lessons Learned and Future Directions - Japan's experience suggests that enhancing domestic demand requires a multifaceted approach, including public investment, capital market stimulation, and direct consumer support [32][33]. - The article concludes that successful domestic demand enhancement strategies must consider consumer confidence and income distribution reforms, as well as targeted subsidies [39][40].

- The Japanese ETF market is relatively mature, with 354 ETF products listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) as of the end of 2023, totaling 155 trillion yen in size, equivalent to approximately $1.10 trillion[4][107][109] - ETFs tracking Japanese equities dominate the market, accounting for 46% of the total number and 46% of the total size, followed by ETFs tracking overseas equities, which also represent 46% of the total size[108][109][113] - Among ETFs tracking Japanese equities, those linked to broad market indices hold the largest share, approximately 97% of the total size, with the TSE indices (TOPIX and Nikkei 225) being the most tracked, accounting for 61% and 31% of the total size, respectively[110][111][112] - Representative ETFs include the NEXT TOPIX ETF (managed by Nomura Asset Management) with a size of 23,745.81 billion yen ($159.02 billion), and the NEXT Nikkei 225 ETF (also managed by Nomura) with a size of 10,403.45 billion yen ($69.67 billion)[114] - Performance-wise, ETFs tracking the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indices have shown similar results over the past three years, with annualized returns of around 10% in yen terms. TOPIX ETFs are relatively more stable, with lower annualized volatility and maximum drawdown compared to Nikkei 225 ETFs[115][116]

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 非银行金融 经济泡沫破裂后的日本证券业复盘 日本证券业集中度不断提升，外资券商市占率下降。上世纪 80 年代末，日 本泡沫经济破裂后券商数量保持稳定，总体数量保持在 250 家左右，证券业 竞争格局进一步集中化。日本证券行业具有集中度非常高的特点，综合性大 券商占据绝对优势地位，形成了如今日本证券市场五大综合型券商独大的局 面。2023 年五大券商的营业收入占行业营业收入 40%以上，净利润占行业 净利润 45%以上。2000 年以来，受日本经济的长期低迷、通货紧缩、市场 激烈竞争以及监管环境变化等多因素影响，外资券商数量逐步收缩，数量从 2000 年 52 家下降至 2022 年 9 家，在营业收入方面，外资券商的市场占 有率由高峰近 30%以上下降到约 1%。 股市下行导致资产负债表质量恶化，同时收入下降但成本刚性导致净利润波 动。一方面，行业总资产和行业净资产虽然受到泡沫破裂、亚洲金融危机和 2008 年金融危机的影响，资产水平有所下降，但总资产整体的上升趋势未 有所改变。净资产在 2013 年股市重启上涨行情后，净资产规模也在波动上 升，2 ...