随着"安倍经济学"门徒高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁，基于对财政扩张政策的预期，日本基准股指本周 连创新高，日元也快速贬值至年初水平。 但就在刚刚过去的周五，高市早苗成为下一任日本首相的前景突然出现变数。 据央视新闻报道，日本公明党党魁齐藤铁夫在周五的会晤中通知高市早苗，由于对其处理"政治黑金"丑 闻的方式深感失望，公明党决定结束与自民党长达26年的合作关系。 "自公联盟"的解散，也意味着高市早苗成为日本首位女首相的前景变得更加模糊。 目前在日本众议院的465个席位中，自民党拥有196席，公明党占据24席，两者相加仍略少于半数。 作为背景，日本国会两院均将投票选举首相，如果两院结果出现分歧，则以众议院的选举结果为准。投 票将采取"两轮决胜制"，如果首轮投票无人获得过半数支持，将在得票数前两位的候选人之间进行决胜 轮投票，得票多者成为下一任日本首相。 主要反对党称"机遇来了" 随着公明党退出执政联盟，在野阵营将自民党拉下台的可能性随之增加。齐藤铁夫明确表示，公明党至 少在首轮投票中不会支持高市早苗。 日本主要反对党立宪民主党的党首野田佳彦周五在播客节目中喊话称"这是十年一遇的机会"，并表示愿 意支持其他党派的领导人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The further decline of US Treasury yields before September may be primarily driven by weaker economic data leading to higher expectations of interest rate cuts, or by the "see - saw effect" triggered by the weakness of other assets. The 10 - year yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 4.00 - 4.30%, but inflation and the "Big and Beautiful" Act may impede the decline of long - term yields [4][14]. - In the two - week period from July 18 to August 1, 2025, affected by the US July non - farm payroll report, global investors' risk - aversion increased, resulting in a double - kill situation in the US stock and bond markets. Different asset classes showed various trends, including significant declines in US and UK government bond yields, a new high in the Japanese stock market, a slump in the US stock market, an upward trend in the coking coal index, a decline in Chicago agricultural product futures prices, and a depreciation of the ruble and the euro [5][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. What Conditions are Needed for the Further Decline of US Treasury Yields? - **Monetary Policy**: At the July FOMC meeting, the interest rate and other monetary policies remained at the June level, in line with market expectations. Waller and Bowman voted against interest rate cuts, citing signs of weakness in the labor market, and Kugler, who was set to leave early, did not attend or vote. Kugler's early departure may increase Trump's influence on the Fed and lead to more divided views within the Fed [1][10]. - **Growth**: Q2 GDP showed a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.0%, but the main drivers were a decline in imports and accelerated consumer spending. Private consumption and investment weakened, with PDFP growing by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the 1.9% in Q1 [2][10]. - **Inflation**: In June, inflationary pressures emerged, with CPI at 2.7%, core CPI at 2.9%, PCE at 2.6%, and core PCE at 2.8%, all reaching the highest levels since March [2][10]. - **Employment**: In July, the ADP employment figure rebounded unexpectedly, but the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which greatly disrupted the interest rate market expectations, causing the 1 - year yield to decline by about 17bp on August 1 [2][11]. - **Policy Stance**: Some Fed presidents still recognize the resilience of the economy and employment and maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, denying the risk of recession and affirming the risk of stagflation [3][12]. 2. Bi - weekly Overseas Macro - analysis - **Interest Rates**: In the past two weeks, US Treasury yields declined significantly, with the 1 - year and 10 - year yields both dropping 21bp to 3.87% and 4.23% respectively. Affected by US Treasuries, UK government bond yields also declined on August 1, increasing investors' risk - aversion [5][16]. - **Equities**: The Japanese stock market reached a new high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 2.46% in the past two weeks, driven by the US - Japan trade agreement on July 23. However, trading volume was low in July. The US stock market slumped after the release of the July non - farm payroll report, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.29% on the night of the report release [17]. - **Commodities**: The coking coal index rose 12.07% in the past two weeks after the central government emphasized governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. Chicago agricultural product futures prices fell across the board, pressured by high expectations of a bumper US autumn harvest [18]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The ruble depreciated by 3.44% in the past two weeks after the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points on July 25. The euro fell 1.24% due to the impact of the US - EU trade agreement and a decline in investor confidence [19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the bi - weekly fluctuations of global major economies' government bond yields, global major stock indices, major commodities, and global major foreign exchange rates (against the RMB), as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, and the yield curves and inflation trends of US, Japanese, and German government bonds [24][28][30][32][35][41][45].

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike predictions as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][51][72] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [5][51][72] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [58][72]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a standard allocation in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][2]. - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and the resilience of the US economy, leading to strong performance in risk assets like equities and commodities, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold faced pressure [1][2]. - Trump's announcement of new tariffs may temporarily disrupt market risk appetite, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The market is still in the process of repricing US Treasuries based on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which involves significant fiscal spending increases and may lead to a substantial expansion of the federal deficit [2]. - The article expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [2]. - Despite short-term pressure on gold from risk appetite fluctuations, global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support its allocation value [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential increase to $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [1] - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to rising oil prices, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially reducing Asia's current account positions by 0.2% to 0.9% of GDP [3] - Panmure Liberum warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, stock markets could face a decline of 10% to 20%, with significant inflationary impacts similar to those seen in 2022 [4] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - HSBC analysts express concerns over the uncertainty of U.S. policies, suggesting that the dollar may face further depreciation, with the euro expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by Q4 [2] - The report from Saxo Bank notes that countries heavily reliant on oil imports, such as India and Thailand, will face multiple challenges including rising energy costs and currency depreciation [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Bank of America reports a growing interest in Japanese stocks as investors seek diversification due to high valuations in U.S. equities, despite ongoing trade uncertainties between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Citic Securities highlights the transformation of traditional cross-border payment systems, suggesting potential growth for participating banks amid a reshaping of the payment landscape [5]

Group 1 - Major asset management institutions have reached a consensus to "sell America," collectively reducing allocations in US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar [1][2] - The largest 15 asset management firms, managing over $20 trillion, are seen as a barometer for global capital flows [1][2] - There is a growing consensus among these institutions to increase allocations in Asian and European markets [1][2] Group 2 - US stocks have become the least favored globally, with overall allocations reduced to neutral levels since the beginning of the year [2][8] - European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, becoming consensus long positions, while emerging markets remain in an overweight status [2][8] Group 3 - Institutions are generally reducing holdings in US and Japanese bonds, while increasing positions in UK, German, and Italian government bonds, as well as local bonds in emerging markets [4][5] - There is a strong preference for European credit bonds, while opinions on US credit bonds remain divided [4][5] Group 4 - In the foreign exchange market, there is a clear trend of reducing exposure to the US dollar while increasing positions in the euro and yen [6][8] - The Swiss franc has been upgraded but remains in a bearish stance overall, indicating a strong consensus against the US dollar [6][8] Group 5 - Precious metals, particularly gold, have been upgraded, while oil and other cyclical commodities have been downgraded [7][8] - The strongest consensus long positions include European and Japanese stocks, the euro, the yen, and gold, while the clear short consensus includes the US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese bonds, US bonds, and oil [7][8] Group 6 - In April, emerging market stocks rebounded strongly, particularly in Latin America, as market tensions eased following changes in US policy [11] - The bond market performed well due to rising risk aversion, while credit bonds underperformed with widening spreads [11] Group 7 - By May, asset prices generally recovered, with global stock markets rising, led by US stocks, and credit bond spreads narrowing [13] - The improvement in market sentiment was driven by reduced tariff risks and lower global recession expectations, although the bond market showed signs of divergence due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US [13]

Group 1 - The company maintains a tactical underweight view on Japanese stocks due to a slowing economic recovery and high inflation risks, leading to lower risk-return ratios in the equity market [1] - The company holds a tactical overweight view on government bonds, citing a stable economic recovery and favorable interest rate conditions, with mid to short-duration bonds offering higher allocation value compared to long-duration bonds [1] - The company adopts a tactical neutral view on gold, recognizing its role as a hedge against geopolitical risks and economic downturns, while noting potential price volatility due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies [2] Group 2 - The domestic active asset allocation portfolio achieved a return of 0.11%, outperforming the benchmark index by 0.10%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.72% as of May 25, 2025 [3] - The global active asset allocation portfolio recorded a return of 0.03%, matching the benchmark index, with a cumulative excess return of 3.11% as of May 25, 2025 [3]