Core Viewpoint - The short-term liquidity in the funding market at year-end shows no significant signs of tightening, indicating a super-seasonally loose market liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity - Short-term funding rates are generally low, with overnight rates dropping below 1.3%, reflecting an overall loose liquidity environment [1] - The central bank's approach to maintaining ample liquidity remains unchanged, suggesting continued support for market stability [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - As the year-end approaches, the central bank may utilize open market operations and government bond purchases to mitigate temporary disturbances and stabilize funding fluctuations [1]

流动性日报 | 2025-12-24 市场流动性概况 2025-12-23，股指板块成交5074.60亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.48%；持仓金额13152.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.74%；成交持仓比为38.60%。 国债板块成交4488.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.46%；持仓金额8094.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.35%；成交 持仓比为56.34%。 基本金属板块成交6099.80亿元，较上一交易日变动-22.04%；持仓金额7177.67亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.03%；成 交持仓比为93.99%。 黑色建材板块成交2080.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.30%；持仓金额3177.18亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.48%；成 交持仓比为59.15%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 贵金属板块成交9672.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.39%；持仓金额5691.61亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.79%；成 交持仓比为237.33%。 能源化工板块成交5029.42亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.10%；持仓金额4458.15亿元， ...

新华财经上海12月23日电（葛佳明） 12月23日，广州期货交易所（以下简称"广期所"）铂、钯期货纷 纷涨停，铂期货主力合约封于涨停价，报619.95元／克，上市迄今累计涨幅达到40.58%；钯期货主力合 约最高至555.15元／克，亦创下今年11月27日该合约上市以来新高，上市迄今累计涨幅超过46%。 外盘铂期货、钯期货表现同样亮眼。截至发稿，现货铂金最高触及2149.47美元／盎司，相较12月16日 的开盘价1783.70美元／盎司，短短一周上涨20%，今年迄今累计涨幅达到141%；现货钯金最高触及 1849美元/盎司，今年迄今累计涨幅达到99%。 方正中期期货分析师高光奇表示，推动铂金上涨主因有三点： 一是供需缺口扩大，全球铂金连续三年 短缺，政治动荡、基础设施老化等问题，导致新项目执行不达预期、开采效率下降，产量增长乏力。 二是需求多元增长，氢能产业推动燃料电池车铂金需求，中国投资需求激增，首饰需求因金铂价差扩大 有替代潜力。 三是宏观环境利好，美联储降息推动美元走弱，市场流动性宽松，金铂比高位回落推动 估值修复。 前国际金融协会首席经济学家、现任布鲁金斯学会高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯（Robin Br ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical patterns of stock market rally initiations since 2008, categorizing them based on their starting times and catalysts, highlighting the significance of macroeconomic policies and market conditions in triggering these rallies [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Rally Patterns - The article identifies three main categories of rally initiation times: 1. January-February starts, which are the most common for historical rallies [1][3]. 2. November starts, which require a clear shift in macroeconomic policy [1][3]. 3. December starts, which occur after strong market performance but face disturbances that, once resolved, lead to a rally [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Rally Initiation - The analysis of the rallies in 2017, 2019, and 2020 reveals that they often began despite lacking strong macroeconomic policy shifts, indicating that market sentiment can drive early rallies [15][20]. - Important factors contributing to the initiation of these rallies include: 1. Positive policy signals from year-end meetings that bolster market sentiment [15][20]. 2. Improvement in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, with no significant disturbances in economic data or earnings forecasts [15][20]. 3. Loose monetary policy and ample liquidity supporting market growth [15][20]. Group 3: Signals for Rally Initiation - The article outlines three main types of events that can signal the start of a rally: 1. Resolution of prior uncertainties that have suppressed the market [19]. 2. Implementation of easing policies such as rate cuts that can ignite market enthusiasm [19]. 3. Key economic data that confirms improving fundamentals, enhancing investor participation [19]. Group 4: Industry Performance During Rallies - The analysis indicates that during the rallies of 2017, 2019, and 2020, the leading sectors did not experience significant shifts, maintaining a correlation with the performance trends established earlier in the year [20]. - The leading sectors during these rallies included: 1. In 2017, low-valuation value stocks and blue-chip companies dominated the market [20]. 2. In 2019, the TMT sector continued to thrive, with the rise of the new energy industry [20]. 3. In 2020, the focus remained on high-end manufacturing and consumption, with some resource sectors benefiting from favorable monetary policies [20].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant growth in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 17%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 28%, and the ChiNext Index approaching a 50% increase [2] - The improvement in both internal and external environments has contributed to the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets leading global market trends [2] - The correlation between A-share market performance and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has been observed, with a notable bull market starting in late September 2024 following a rate cut announcement [2] Group 2 - The internal environment is characterized by the continuous release of technological dividends and improving corporate profitability, which is expected to enhance the investment value of the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027 [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 14% growth in corporate earnings in 2026 and a further 12% in 2027, with a potential valuation expansion of around 10% [3] - The Chinese stock market could see a potential increase of 38% by the end of 2027, leading to a market capitalization growth to approximately 140 trillion to 150 trillion RMB [3] Group 3 - The estimated total market capitalization of the Chinese stock market could reach about 20 trillion USD, which still shows a significant gap compared to the US stock market [4] - The US stock market's total capitalization is approximately 70 trillion USD, accounting for nearly 60% of the global total [5] - The valuation of the A-share market is significantly lower than that of the US market, with the average price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai market around 16 times, nearly half of the US market's average [5] Group 4 - The upward potential of the A-share market is contingent on continuous improvement in corporate profitability and maintaining ample market liquidity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2.5 trillion RMB [6] - Market expansion and stock price increases are key factors influencing total market capitalization, with stock price increases benefiting shareholders while market expansion may dilute existing shareholders' rights [6]

期货研究报告 核心观点 上周金价整体呈现震荡上行走势。宏观层面，多空因素交织：一 方面，美元指数在连续调整后触底回升，对以美元计价的黄金构成压 制；另一方面，日本央行加息落地，全球市场流动性预期改善，又为 金价提供了支撑。在此环境下，纽约金价多次尝试上攻每盎司4380美 元关口，但均遇阻回落，与之对应的国内沪金亦在每克 980 元附近面 临明显的技术阻力。这表明当前价位附近多空博弈激烈，市场分歧有 所加大。周五夜盘内外金价均站上阻力位，短期上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，自10月底中美元首在釜山举行会晤以来，全球市场 风险偏好持续回暖，黄金价格整体维持高位震荡格局。目前金价已再 度逼近 10 月末形成的阶段性高点，技术层面压力逐渐显现。后续需 密切关注价格在关键阻力区域的表现，若无法有效突破，短期可能延 续震荡整理态势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 贵金属 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 22 日 贵金属周报 日元加息落地，市场流动性回升 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0 ...

Core Viewpoint - As the Christmas holiday approaches, gold and silver traders remain active, with spot gold reaching a new record high above $4,400 per ounce. If gold stabilizes above this level, it could open up further upside potential. However, headwinds for gold may not materialize until the second half of 2026, although market participants might start to price in these expectations earlier [1][1]. Group 1 - Spot gold has surged to a new record high above $4,400 per ounce, indicating strong bullish momentum among buyers [1]. - The key challenge for the gold rally is the potential shift of major central banks from rate cuts to rate hikes in the future, which could impact gold prices [1]. - Despite the seasonal trend showing that December and January have historically been good months for gold, liquidity factors must be considered as trading activity tends to decrease during the holiday season [1].

流动性日报 | 2025-12-22 市场流动性概况 2025-12-19，股指板块成交7674.83亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.50%；持仓金额13027.70亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.12%；成交持仓比为59.02%。 国债板块成交3190.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.22%；持仓金额7704.44亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.79%；成交 持仓比为41.06%。 基本金属板块成交6883.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.45%；持仓金额6983.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.66%；成 交持仓比为102.33%。 贵金属板块成交12121.94亿元，较上一交易日变动+28.09%；持仓金额5157.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.74%；成 交持仓比为344.09%。 能源化工板块成交4282.19亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.50%；持仓金额4411.80亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.88%；成 交持仓比为93.53%。 农产品板块成交2895.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.07%；持仓金额5802.00亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.10%；成交 持仓比为44.09%。 流动性日报 | 一、板块 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including trends, trading suggestions, and price ranges for each variety [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Plastic (12605): Expected to show a weak trend [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to rebound from the bottom [3] - Rapeseed Oil (01605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - PT2606/PD: Suggest buying on dips [3] Full Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index - The dividend sector rose against the market, and the A - share style is defensive. The market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectation, and the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market trends may be dominated by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view the market as volatile and trade quickly if participating [3] Treasury Bonds - There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands, and the bond futures are expected to fluctuate slightly higher. It is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as range - bound. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are still inhibited in upward momentum but remain strongly volatile. It is recommended to hold long positions. Silver may enter the overbought range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Platinum and palladium may correct in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Steel - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The rebar in May should be watched in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan, and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [3] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 730 - 800 [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1000 - 1200 [3] Coke - Coke is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1500 - 1650 [3] Copper - It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] Alumina - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2450 - 2700. Short - term traders can go long on dips [3] Aluminum - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21700 - 22400. It is recommended to go long on dips [3] Aluminum Alloy - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20700 - 21400. It is recommended to go long on AD03 and short on AL03 for arbitrage [3] Zinc - Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] Tin - Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [3] Nickel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114000 - 118000 [3] Stainless Steel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12500 - 13000 [3] Industrial Silicon - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 98,000 - 102,000. Reduce long positions [3] PX - Conduct rolling low - buying operations [3] PTA - Conduct rolling low - buying operations and low - level positive arbitrage between TA5 - 9 [3] Short - Fiber - The operation is the same as PTA. Compress the processing fee on the disk when it is high [3] Bottle Chips - Sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies. The processing fee on the main contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] Ethanol - Sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] Pure Benzene - It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] Styrene - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [3] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: Wait and see [3] - PP: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - MA: Narrow the MTO of the 05 contract [3] - Caustic Soda: Be bearish [3] - PVC: Be bearish on the rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3] - Glass: Wait and see [3] - Natural Rubber: Wait and see [3] - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to the pressure at around 11200 for BR2602 [3] Grains and Oils -粕类: Narrow - range adjustment [3] - Live Pigs: In a bottom - grinding market [3] - Corn: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Vegetable Oils: The decline has slowed down. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 - 8300 in the short - term [3] - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Cotton: Pay attention to the resistance at around 14050 - 14100 [3] - Eggs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Apples: It is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically [3] - Red Dates: Buy low and sell high [3]

流动性日报 | 2025-12-19 市场流动性概况 2025-12-18，股指板块成交7791.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-21.56%；持仓金额13588.05亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.22%；成交持仓比为57.18%。 国债板块成交3634.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.04%；持仓金额7495.56亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.86%；成交持 仓比为48.60%。 基本金属板块成交6590.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.35%；持仓金额6869.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.46%；成 交持仓比为98.83%。 贵金属板块成交9463.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.42%；持仓金额5248.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.22%；成交 持仓比为269.59%。 能源化工板块成交4392.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.11%；持仓金额4373.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.41%；成 交持仓比为91.72%。 农产品板块成交2781.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.87%；持仓金额5866.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.59%；成交 持仓比为44.71%。 黑色建材板块成交3076.17 ...