如果能意识到固投增速的变化是经济结构调整的体现，就不要 期待政策会通过大水漫灌的方式拉动固投增速反弹。中央经济 工作会议的整体政策基调是"托而不举"，兼顾跨周期，推动投 资止跌回稳的表述是要求增速统计由负转正，并未设定具体的 增速底线。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 12月15日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1—11月，全国固定资产投资（下称"固投"）同比下降 2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固投同比增长0.8%。 如图一红色曲线所示，2005—2011年，固投增速均在20%以上，此后十余年固投增速呈现快速 下滑的态势。仅看2025年，逐月累计的固投增速也呈现不断下降的趋势。按照此趋势，2025年固 投增速预计将为负值，这也是过去二十年固投首次出现同比负增长的情况。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示："据我们测算，今年7—11月投资的当月同比已连续6个 月转负，当前固投运行状态在历史上较为罕见。" 制图：田进 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作 用，有效激发民间投资活力 ...

坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提 升宏观经济治理效能，是做好2026年经济工作的政策取向。这就要求宏观政策务必更加精准。财政政策 上"加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策""严肃财经纪律，坚持党政 机关过紧日子"，货币政策上"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域"等，都在传递这个信号。不只在总量上发力，也在结构调整上持续用力，就是要用存量政策与增量 政策的协同，推动战略的聚焦、产业的聚焦，最终实现新旧动能的顺畅转换。 从消费到投资、从"物"到"人"，我国经济潜力十足。只有坚持改革攻坚，才能激活并释放蛰伏的发 展潜能。按照工作部署，2026年有一系列重大改革任务需要推进。比如，制定全国统一大市场建设条 例，深入整治"内卷式"竞争；制定和实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案，完善民营经济促进法配套法规 政策；拓展要素市场化改革试点；深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改 革；深化外商投资促进体制机制改革；深化医保支付方式改革、住房公积金制度改革；等等。每一项改 革都明确了具体方向和执行路径，不搞 ...

中央经济工作会议在分析"今年怎么看"和部署"明年怎么办"中，概括提炼出"五个必须"的新的认识 和体会。其中，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，是既推动解决现实问题，实现稳中求进，又瞄准提 质增效，实现更高质量、更具韧性、更可持续发展的科学方法论。 深刻的规律性认识，来源于宏观经济治理的实践。"十四五"时期，有效应对各种冲击挑战，党和国 家事业取得新的重大成就，不仅因为我们科学高效用好调控工具，提高了逆周期调节能力，更重要的是 始终坚持调控与改革并行不悖、互为依托。包括多次缩减市场准入负面清单在内的一系列改革举措落地 见效，不断释放市场活力、厚植发展优势。从去年9月份中央政治局会议部署实施一揽子增量政策，到 今年4月份在外部冲击影响加大背景下部署一揽子政策举措，我们根据形势发展变化做出积极应对，及 时熨平经济运行中可能出现的波动，使"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开 局。 将2026年置于五年规划的整体框架、进一步全面深化改革的时间安排中考量，这一年需要保持一定 经济增速，为之后的增长预留空间，也要在改革攻坚上实现新突破，平衡好"十五五"时期的整体目标。 瞄准统筹"稳"与"进"的方向，面对 ...

改革攻坚需要政策提供一个相对温和的宏观环境，改革的顺利推进也会为政策实施带来更大空间。以政 策支持夯实发展底气，以改革创新激发前行动力，正是我国经济发展的确定性与可预期性所在。面对经 济发展中的堵点、痛点、难点和空白点，通过创造有利的体制机制环境，采取适当的政策引导，将其转 化为经济发展的增长点，"十五五"开局定能交出亮眼答卷，我国经济定能在复杂环境中行稳致远。 （文章来源：经济日报） 坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏 观经济治理效能，是做好2026年经济工作的政策取向。这就要求宏观政策务必更加精准。财政政策 上"加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策""严肃财经纪律，坚持党政 机关过紧日子"，货币政策上"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域"等，都在传递这个信号。不只在总量上发力，也在结构调整上持续用力，就是要用存量政策与增量 政策的协同，推动战略的聚焦、产业的聚焦，最终实现新旧动能的顺畅转换。 从消费到投资、从"物"到"人"，我国经济潜力十足。只有坚持改革攻坚，才能激活并释放蛰伏的发展潜 能。按照工 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in a state of high rotation and confusion regarding the main investment themes, with the main line of investment being unclear at this time [3][24][25] - The report highlights that the "high-cut low" market phase has ended, and the market is now entering a period lacking clear main lines, especially following significant macroeconomic events [24][25][41] - The report suggests that the transition from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamental-driven market is expected to occur, with a focus on cyclical sectors and global pricing resources [1][2][40] Group 2 - The report notes that the technology sector has shown significant internal differentiation, with certain segments like AI hardware receiving continued investment, while software applications lag behind [54][55] - The report emphasizes that the current market environment is characterized by a shift from high-valuation technology stocks to traditional sectors that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as finance and industrials [9][11] - The report indicates that the performance of the A-share technology sector is expected to improve after the year-end, based on historical trends where technology stocks tend to perform better in the early part of the following year [67][69][71] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the recent Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasizes a balanced approach to economic policy, focusing on both existing and new growth drivers [2][40] - The report highlights that the overall economic environment remains challenging, with a focus on addressing risks in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [2][40] - The report suggests that the upcoming year may see a clearer transition towards new growth drivers, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors, as risks are gradually mitigated [2][40]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to maintain strong growth in 2025, driven by government policies promoting consumption, with passenger vehicle growth projected at 11% and significant recovery in both truck and bus markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The automotive market is experiencing a clear differentiation between passenger and commercial vehicles, with passenger vehicle consumption improving while commercial vehicle sales are weaker [4][6]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, total automotive sales reached 30.94 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11% [6]. - November 2025 saw total automotive sales of 3.42 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [6]. Group 2: Company Performance - There is significant performance differentiation among major automotive groups, with some state-owned enterprises lagging behind while companies like BYD and Chery show strong performance [9][12]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with private enterprises like Geely, BYD, and Chery becoming the main players in the industry, indicating a sustainable trend [12][13]. Group 3: Passenger Vehicle Dynamics - Cumulative sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 26.75 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, with an 11% growth rate [17]. - In November 2025, narrow passenger vehicle sales totaled 3 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2% [17][19]. - The retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles maintained a year-on-year growth of 5% since 2023, although a downward trend was observed from September 2025 [21]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Trends - In November 2025, sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.71 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% [24]. - Cumulative wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to November 2025 reached 13.77 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28% [24][26]. Group 5: Commercial Vehicle Insights - The commercial vehicle market is characterized by structural growth driven by equipment renewal subsidies, with high subsidies accelerating the electrification of logistics and transportation [1][4]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative truck sales reached 3.35 million units, with a growth rate of 10% [37]. - November 2025 saw truck sales of 340,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% [37][39].

Group 1 - The core economic growth target for next year is set at around 5%, focusing on employment and livelihood improvements, with a clear signal for more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [1][3] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand will drive consumption and investment as the main growth engines, with measures to enhance consumer spending and optimize investment structures [3][4] - The government plans to implement a more aggressive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of approximately 4%-4.2% and an increase in special bond issuance to support infrastructure and social welfare [5][6] Group 2 - Innovation-driven actions will accelerate, with a focus on developing education and technology talent, and enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation [4][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately eased, providing ample liquidity and lowering financing costs to support domestic demand and technological innovation [5][6] - High-level opening-up will be expanded, promoting foreign trade quality and efficiency, and increasing international job opportunities [6][7] Group 3 - The government aims to pragmatically address risks in key areas such as real estate and local government debt, with policies tailored to local conditions [6][7] - The transition from old to new growth drivers will be expedited, with a focus on service sector expansion and the integration of artificial intelligence [7][8] - The overall economic strategy is designed to ensure stability and growth, with a focus on policy implementation that directly benefits the public [8]

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the support for major economic provinces to take the lead in economic development [1] - Jiangsu and Shandong have announced significant economic growth data, with Jiangsu's GDP projected to exceed 14 trillion yuan and Shandong's GDP expected to surpass 10 trillion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth of Jiangsu and Shandong - Jiangsu's GDP has increased from 10.5 trillion yuan in 2020 to 13.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant milestone as it approaches the 14 trillion yuan mark [1] - Shandong's GDP is projected to grow from 7.44 trillion yuan in 2020 to 9.86 trillion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase in its share of the national economy from 7.19% to 7.31% [2] Group 2: Industrial Transformation in Shandong - Shandong has successfully transitioned its industrial structure, with high-tech industries' output rising from 45.1% in 2020 to 55.2% in the first half of this year [2] - The province has built 26.6 thousand 5G base stations, ranking second nationally in the number of gigabit cities [2] Group 3: New Economic Landscape and Urban Development - Shandong announced a plan to expand its "trillion-yuan city" initiative, aiming to promote Weifang, Linyi, and Jining to become new trillion-yuan cities [4][6] - Currently, Shandong has three trillion-yuan cities: Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai, and if successful, it will have six, enhancing its competitive position among leading provinces [6] Group 4: Competitive Position of Major Cities - Qingdao is positioned to potentially become the "second city in the north," with its GDP gap with Tianjin narrowing to less than 50 billion yuan [7] - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of developing the marine economy, with Shandong's marine production value reaching 18.01 billion yuan, accounting for 17.1% of the national total [7] Group 5: National Economic Context - Guangdong is projected to be the first province to exceed 14 trillion yuan in GDP, with a potential milestone of reaching 15 trillion yuan soon [8] - Zhejiang is expected to reach approximately 9.5 trillion yuan in GDP this year, indicating a possible entry into the trillion-yuan club by 2026 [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the new trends in China's cross-border trade and investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the shift towards new trade methods and products that are reshaping the domestic and international markets [2][4]. Trade Growth and Innovations - In the first 11 months of the year, China's total import and export value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with November's trade growth rebounding to 4.1% [6]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector in Yiwu has seen significant growth, with the import clearance list surpassing 100 million orders, marking a historic milestone [2]. - The introduction of "smart supervision" measures at customs has improved efficiency, allowing vehicles to pass through with minimal delays [2]. New Product Trends - The share of high-tech and high-value-added products in China's exports is rapidly increasing, with integrated circuits and electric vehicles leading the way [5][6]. - The contribution of electromechanical products to export growth was 87% in the first ten months, with a notable increase in the export of intermediate goods [6]. Internationalization and Market Expansion - Chinese companies are accelerating their internationalization efforts, with a focus on expanding into emerging markets in the Global South, as evidenced by the increasing share of low- and middle-income economies in China's imports and exports [8][9]. - The report indicates that by 2026, the focus of global trade is expected to shift towards emerging hubs in the Global South, challenging traditional Western centers [8]. Investment Trends - China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has surpassed $170 billion, reflecting a significant shift from being an investment-receiving country to an investment-sending country [9]. - The manufacturing sector now accounts for a larger share of China's overseas investments compared to resource extraction industries [9]. Future Directions - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for innovation in foreign trade, including optimizing trade structures and expanding service and digital trade [11]. - There is a call for enhancing the dual flow of goods and factors across borders, balancing exports and imports to strengthen China's economic position [12][13].

Core Insights - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the support for major economic provinces to take the lead in economic development [1] - Jiangsu and Shandong have announced significant economic growth data, with Jiangsu's GDP projected to exceed 14 trillion yuan and Shandong's GDP expected to surpass 10 trillion yuan [1][9] Summary by Sections Jiangsu's Economic Growth - Jiangsu's GDP has increased from 10.5 trillion yuan in 2020 to 13.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant milestone as it approaches the 14 trillion yuan mark [1] - This positions Jiangsu as the second province in China to cross the 14 trillion yuan GDP threshold after Guangdong [1] Shandong's Economic Development - Shandong's GDP is projected to grow from 7.44 trillion yuan in 2020 to 9.86 trillion yuan in 2024, achieving a significant milestone as it becomes the third province in China to exceed 10 trillion yuan [3][9] - The province's contribution to the national economy has increased from 7.19% to 7.31% during this period [3] Industrial Transformation in Shandong - Shandong has successfully transitioned its industrial structure, with high-tech industries' output rising from 45.1% in 2020 to 55.2% in the first half of 2024 [3] - The province has built 26.6 million 5G base stations, ranking second in the country for the number of gigabit cities [3] New Economic Zones and Urban Development - Shandong announced a plan to expand its "trillion-yuan city" initiative, aiming to elevate Weifang, Linyi, and Jining to trillion-yuan cities, which would increase its total to six [6] - The province's economic landscape is characterized by its dual-core cities, Qingdao and Jinan, each with distinct strategic roles [6] Qingdao's Economic Aspirations - Qingdao aims to accelerate its GDP growth to reach the 2 trillion yuan mark, with its GDP ranking 13th nationally and closing the gap with Tianjin [7] - The city is positioned to potentially become the "second city in the north," enhancing Shandong's competitive edge among major cities [7] National Economic Landscape - Guangdong remains the top province with a GDP exceeding 14 trillion yuan, while Zhejiang is projected to join the trillion-yuan club by 2026 [9] - The combined GDP of the top four provinces could place them among the top 20 economies globally, highlighting their significant role in China's economic framework [9]