| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/18 | 星期四 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4516.80 | 4507.40 | 4489.20 | 4466.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4553.20 | 4541.80 | 4518.20 | 4492.80 | | | 涨跌 | 36.20 | 34.80 | 31.60 | 30.20 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.80 ...

Market Overview - On September 17, 2025, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3876.34 points, up 0.37%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.46 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.95% to 3147.34 points. Despite the overall rise, more than 2700 stocks declined, with total trading volume reaching 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 35.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][5] - The Hong Kong stock market opened high and continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 1.78% or 469.88 points, closing at 26908.39 points. The total trading volume was 360.284 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.24% to 9596.77 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged 4.22% to 6334.24 points [1][5] - In the U.S., the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, leading to mixed results in the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 260.42 points, or 0.57%, closing at 46018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 72.63 points, or 0.33%, to 22261.33 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 6.41 points, or 0.10%, to 6600.35 points [1][5] Fiscal Data - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 148198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 121085 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, while non-tax revenue was 27113 billion yuan, up 1.5%. Central government revenue was 64268 billion yuan, down 1.7%, while local government revenue increased by 1.8% to 83930 billion yuan [2][6] Consumer Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to conduct pilot projects for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios in approximately 50 cities. This initiative aims to enhance quality consumption supply, innovate diverse consumption scenarios, and better meet the varied consumption needs of the public, thereby supporting high-quality economic development [2][6] Financial Market Reforms - Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, proposed exploring the reduction of the stock settlement cycle to T+1 and promoting more overseas companies to list in Hong Kong. The government aims to assist mainland tech companies in financing and enhance financial support for national technological development [3][7] Automotive Industry Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public input on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, focusing on safety requirements for combined driving assistance systems. The proposed standards include comprehensive safety technical requirements and mechanisms for detecting driver disengagement, ensuring a robust safety framework for the industry [3][7]

来源：央视财经 2. 17日，工信部公开征求《智能网联汽车组合驾驶辅助系统安全要求》强制性国家标准的意见。 1. 17日，国务院国资委介绍，"十四五"以来中央企业综合实力不断增强，资产总额超过90万亿元。 3. 财政部数据显示，8月份，全国一般公共预算收入1.24万亿元，同比增长2%，延续增长态势。 4. 今年1至8月，全国铁路发送旅客32亿人次，同比增长6.7%，创历史同期新高。 5. 记者17日获悉，2025年1—8月，中国内地居民与东盟国家人员往来超2524万人次，同比增长11.2％。 6. 9月17日，上交所副理事长霍瑞戎表示，目前已有475万户投资者开通科创成长层交易权限。 7. 今天（18日）起，电影《731》将在全球多地上映。据网络平台数据，截至9月17日20时08分，该片首 日预售票房突破1亿元，也是今年春节档后首部首日预售票房破亿影片。 8. 日前，国家药监局批准发布《采用脑机接口技术的医疗器械术语》医疗器械行业标准，这是我国第一 项脑机接口医疗器械标准。该标准将于2026年1月1日正式实施。 9. 国家文物局消息，2025年暑期，全国博物馆接待观众3.04亿人次，较2024年暑期全国博物馆 ...

Market Performance - On September 17, the A-share market showed a strong rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.95% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 35.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] International Market Overview - The New York stock market had mixed results on September 17, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.57% to close at 46,018.32 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.33% [2] - European markets also showed mixed performance, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.14%, the CAC 40 down by 0.40%, and the DAX up by 0.13% [2] Oil Prices - International oil prices declined on September 17, with light crude oil futures for October delivery falling by $0.47 to $64.05 per barrel, a decrease of 0.73%, and Brent crude for November delivery down by $0.52 to $67.95 per barrel, a drop of 0.76% [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [4][5] - The decision was influenced by weaker-than-expected job growth in recent months, and further rate cuts are anticipated in the upcoming meetings [5] Hong Kong Monetary Policy - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% in response to the Federal Reserve's rate cut [7] Fiscal Data - From January to August, China's general public budget revenue reached 148.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly up by 0.02% and non-tax revenue increasing by 1.5% [6] Industry Insights - The automotive industry is expected to accelerate development in intelligent driving technology, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [10] - CATL announced that its sodium-ion batteries will begin mass production for passenger vehicles next year, offering advantages in low-temperature performance and safety [11] Stock Market Trends - Financial analysts suggest that the A-share market remains attractive for long-term investment, with expected support from policies aimed at reducing internal competition and increasing demand [11] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see further growth in the A-share market, driven by policy and liquidity factors [11]

重要消息 美联储如期降息25个基点； 四连板上海建工：公司黄金业务收入占公司营业收入比例较低。 经济运行稳中向好，8月份财政收入继续回暖； 组合驾驶辅助系统将迎国家标准。 重要的消息有哪些 当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%—4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降 息。美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国失业率维持在低位但略有上升。通胀近期有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美 国通胀风险上行，就业风险下行。明年之后，多数通胀预期指标将符合2%的目标。预计今年和明年关税 推动的价格上涨趋势将持续。鲍威尔补充说，美联储应该观望关税、通胀和劳动力市场如何发展，然后 再降息。 财政部发布2025年1—8月财政收支情况，1—8月，全国一般公共预算收入148198亿元，同比增长0.3%。 其中，全国税收收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%；非税收入27113亿元，同比增长1.5%。分中央和地方 看，中央一般公共预算收入64268亿元， ...

Important Market News - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.33% and 0.1% respectively [1] - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% at $3694.60 per ounce and silver down 2.15% at $41.99 per ounce [1] - Oil prices slightly decreased, with WTI crude oil down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.83% at $67.90 per barrel [1] Industry Insights - China Unicom's project on green electricity and intelligent computing centers has signed contracts for 1,747 devices and 22,832 computing cards, achieving a total computing power of 3,479P [2] - The performance parameters of Alibaba's PPU, NVIDIA A800, and other computing cards were highlighted, showing that Alibaba's PPU outperforms NVIDIA A800 and is comparable to H20 [2] - The RISC-V architecture from Alibaba's Pingtouge is expected to see shipments exceed 10 billion units by 2027, with a potential global market share of 15% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China released a draft for mandatory national standards on intelligent connected vehicles, aiming to enhance safety in the industry [4] - The new standards are expected to benefit hardware with safety attributes, testing institutions, and leading autonomous driving companies [5] - Western Digital announced plans to increase prices for all HDD products due to unprecedented demand levels driven by AI and cloud computing [6] - Micron is expected to provide optimistic earnings guidance, with DRAM and NAND sales and prices projected to rise due to limited supply and unexpected demand [6]

Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a draft for mandatory national standards on "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combination Driving Assistance Systems," aiming to establish a safety baseline for intelligent connected vehicles [1] - The draft emphasizes that systems can only be activated under their designed operating conditions and sets comprehensive safety technical requirements, including human-machine interaction, functional safety, information security, and data recording, creating a "triple safety guarantee" [1] - The standard is expected to drive technological upgrades and accelerate the implementation of advanced intelligent driving, facilitating smoother international expansion for the industry [1][2] Market Trends - The penetration rate of combination driving assistance systems in new passenger cars in China reached 62.58% in the first seven months of this year, with sales of such vehicles amounting to 7.76 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.31% [2] - By mid-2025, the installation rate of L2-level and above driving assistance functions in new energy passenger vehicles is projected to reach 82.6% [2] - The current period until next year is seen as a critical window for breakthroughs in the maturity of advanced intelligent driving technology, policy regulations, user acceptance, and business models [2] Company Developments - Horizon Robotics is a leading player in the advanced driving assistance solutions market, providing both chips and algorithms, with products like J6P and HorizonCell offering 1120 TOPS computing power [4] - Black Sesame Intelligence has developed the A1000Pro chip with 106 TOPS performance and is collaborating with major automotive OEMs, enhancing its product matrix with the A2000 chip [4] - SUTENG Juchuang has achieved mass production of its high-line count LiDAR products, which are now featured in new models from various automakers [5] - Youjia Innovation has secured multiple contracts in the intelligent driving sector and is investing in high-level driving assistance and L4 autonomous driving solutions [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating an increase in downside risks in the employment sector [4] - The latest economic data shows that U.S. new home starts fell to an annualized rate of 1.3 million in August, a decrease of 3.7% from July, which was below market expectations [4] - The international oil prices have declined, with WTI crude oil near-month contract dropping by 0.73% to $64.05 per barrel, and Brent crude oil near-month contract falling by 0.76% to $67.95 per barrel [4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce in China plans to introduce a series of policy documents aimed at high-quality development in the accommodation industry and the integration of railways and tourism [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a draft for public consultation on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, focusing on safety requirements [5] - From January to August, China's general public budget revenue reached 148.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly increasing by 0.02% [5] Group 3 - CATL announced that its sodium-ion batteries will begin mass supply for passenger vehicles next year, with an energy density of 175Wh/kg and a range of over 500 kilometers [7] - The company is currently advancing the development and implementation of sodium-ion batteries with clients, aiming for mass supply based on client schedules [7] Group 4 - Tianpu Co. has completed its stock trading suspension review and will resume trading on September 18, 2025, after a period of continuous trading limit increases [8][9] - The company clarified that there are no asset injection plans from the rumored acquirer, Zhonghao Xinying Technology Co., Ltd. [9] Group 5 - Maiwei Bio has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Kalexo, which includes potential prepayments and milestone payments totaling up to $1 billion [10] - The agreement allows Kalexo exclusive rights for the global development, production, and commercialization of a specific project [10] Group 6 - Zhongji Xuchuang reported that specific shareholders reduced their holdings by 4.6341 million shares from July 1 to September 17, 2025, decreasing their stake from 9.4170% to 8.9999% [11] - Current economic conditions are stable, and the Fed's rate cut is expected to positively influence market sentiment and funding [11]

欢迎点击转发早安图，在交汇点新闻客户端底部"互动"模块发布您的晨间物语和拍摄的美图，明天登上早安图的或许就是您哦！ 01 中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动总结会议在京举行 中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动总结会议9月17日上午在京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平在人民大会 堂亲切接见纪念活动筹办工作各方面代表，向他们表示感谢和问候，对他们的辛勤付出和出色成绩给予充分肯定，勉励大家奋发进取、再立新功。（新华 社） 02 工信部就智能网联汽车组合驾驶辅助相关标准公开征求意见 04 点击速看！中国质量（南京）大会的"高光时刻"全在这里→ 9月16日至17日，来自全球30多个国家和地区的约600名代表齐聚中国南京，共同出席中国质量（南京）大会，深入探讨新形势下的热点质量话题和质量管理 前沿内容，促进质量合作，加快质量变革，推动全球经济高质量发展。（交汇点新闻） 05 江苏启动校园防范电信网络诈骗犯罪宣传月 9月16日，2025年江苏省网络安全宣传周校园日活动暨校园防范电信网络诈骗犯罪宣传月启动仪式在南京举行。本次活动旨在以"筑牢网络安全意识，守护青 春无诈 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and projected two more rate cuts for the year [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with Nvidia dropping over 2% and the Chinese concept index rising by 2.85% [1] - Gold prices reached a new high on the day of the Federal Reserve's decision [1] Group 2 - The U.S. construction permits for August were adjusted to an annual rate of 1.312 million, below expectations [1] - The U.S. new housing starts for August were adjusted to an annual rate of 1.307 million, also below expectations [1] - Canada’s central bank cut rates by 25 basis points [1] Group 3 - China's tax revenue from January to August saw a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 1.5% [1] - Personal income tax in China for August reached 1,054.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - The stamp duty on securities transactions in China for August was 25.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 226% and a month-on-month increase of 66% [1] Group 4 - The unemployment rate for youth aged 16-24 in China rose to 18.9% [1] - CATL announced that its sodium-ion battery will have a pure electric range of over 500 kilometers and will be supplied in bulk next year [1] - The silicon industry association indicated that the effective production capacity of domestic polysilicon will decrease by 31.4% compared to the installed capacity due to the enforcement of new energy consumption standards [1]