Core Viewpoint - The listing of pure benzene futures and options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is expected to enhance risk management tools for the chemical industry, supporting the transition from a "chemical power" to a "chemical strong country" in China [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, all four pure benzene futures contracts closed up by approximately 0.5%, with a trading volume of 26,900 lots and a total transaction value of 4.788 billion yuan [3]. - The benchmark price for the contracts was set at 5,900 yuan per ton, with a total open interest of 5,419 lots [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options will create a combination of hedging tools alongside styrene futures and options, providing effective means for enterprises to manage price risks and secure production profits during expansion cycles [2]. - Major industry players, including China Petroleum International Company and Xuyang Group, participated in the first day of trading, indicating strong interest from key stakeholders across the supply chain [4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Operational Efficiency - Companies like Xuyang Group and Hengshen Group emphasized that the new futures and options will allow for more proactive and refined management of raw material procurement and sales risks, enhancing operational stability and market competitiveness [4][6]. - The listing is expected to improve inventory management and reduce holding costs, thereby increasing capital efficiency for enterprises [5]. Group 4: Delivery Mechanism - The delivery method for pure benzene futures involves a physical delivery system with both factory and warehouse options, with a delivery unit of 30 tons [7]. - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai have been designated as the benchmark delivery locations due to their status as major production and trading areas for pure benzene [7].

Group 1 - In March 2024, strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June and favorable domestic policy expectations led to a rise in zinc prices, with the main contract reaching a two-year high of 25,365 yuan/ton [1] - By the second quarter of 2024, the trading logic shifted from interest rate cuts to concerns about secondary inflation in Europe and the U.S., causing further increases in zinc prices [1] - The volatility in zinc prices significantly increased operational risks for companies, making futures hedging essential [1] Group 2 - As of the end of March 2024, despite a rapid increase in zinc prices, downstream demand did not improve significantly, leading to a continuous accumulation of social inventory [2] - From July 2024, the spot premium in South China began to rise, peaking at 240 yuan/ton in mid-September before falling back to 15 yuan/ton [2] - The fluctuation of basis affects the effectiveness of futures hedging, making it crucial for companies to determine the basis accurately [2] Group 3 - In 2023, several overseas mines faced production halts, exacerbating the tight supply of zinc concentrate and leading to a decline in processing fees [3] - The supply issues for zinc concentrate worsened in 2024, resulting in a significant reduction in smelting profits and subsequent production cuts by smelters [3] Group 4 - A supply chain management company established in April 2023 focuses on zinc concentrate and zinc ingot procurement and sales, facing challenges due to price volatility [6] - The company engages in high-frequency trading to improve capital turnover and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [6] Group 5 - A futures company developed a hedging strategy for the supply chain company, prioritizing spot purchases and short futures when the basis is negative, and pre-selling spot and long futures when the basis is positive [7] - This strategy effectively hedges against single-sided risks in spot trading while capturing basis profits [7] Group 6 - On October 14, 2024, the supply chain company purchased 30 tons of spot zinc at an average price of 24,953 yuan/ton and sold futures at an average price of 25,250 yuan/ton, resulting in a total profit of 4,560 yuan [8] - On October 28, 2024, the company pre-sold 30 tons of zinc ingots at an average price of 24,860 yuan/ton and established long futures, achieving a total profit of 11,010 yuan [8] Group 7 - The case study illustrates that companies should not mechanically follow procurement and sales plans but should anticipate spot premiums or basis changes to enhance hedging effectiveness and increase trade profits [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 due to the end of technological upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategies recommended include LC09 - 11 calendar spread trading, shorting LC2511 at high prices, and selling call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 25.9% [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan (0.60%); the trading volume was 213,300 lots, down 134,429 lots (- 38.66%); the open interest was 322,535 lots, down 2,753 lots (- 0.85%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 63,340 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.51%); the trading volume was 20,140 lots, down 15,366 lots (- 43.28%); the open interest was 97,999 lots, up 950 lots (0.98%) [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread was 480 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (9.09%); the LC09 - 11 month - spread was 320 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (23%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread was - 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (- 13%) [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ore showed little change, except for the fastmarkets Li₂O:6% lithium ore, which decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton (- 0.37%) [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.41%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.4%); the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 52,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.08%); the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF for China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.1 dollars/kg, unchanged; the fastmarkets price was 8.05 dollars/kg, down 0.15 dollars/kg (- 1.82%) [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The electrolyte - lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen - electric - carbon spread was 420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (- 37.31%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF for Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 399.86 yuan/ton, up 26.51 yuan (7.10%) [21]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte remained unchanged [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract showed little change [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots compared to the previous day, with different changes in each warehouse or sub - warehouse [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate [30].

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.56% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for plastic is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.24% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about methanol price drops, shorting methanol futures (MA2509, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350) can lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Buying put options (MA2509P2250, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 15 - 20) can prevent significant price drops, and selling call options (MA2509C2350, 45 - 60) can reduce capital costs [3]. Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying methanol futures (MA2509, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2350) can lock in procurement costs [3]. - Selling put options (MA2509P2300, 75% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 25) can earn premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - Inland methanol performs better than port methanol due to recent inland plant maintenance, external purchases by inland CTO plants, and purchases of inland methanol by port MTO plants [4]. - After the anti - involution meeting in the second half of the week, the commodity and financial markets rose, leading to premium transactions in plant auctions [4]. - After the end of the short - squeeze in late June at the port, the external supply is gradually recovering, and the basis is continuously weakening [4]. - Currently, the inventory is low, the port inventory is accumulating slowly, and Iran has suffered actual production losses, but there are significant differences in July shipments and no conclusion on Iran's inventory [4]. - As of the weekend, Iran's plants are gradually recovering, with 3 ships shipped at a decent pace [4]. - In late July, Chengzhi's large plant plans to shut down for 1 - 2 months, and Zhongyuan Ethylene shut down on June 27 for 1 - 2 months [4]. - The forecasted inventory in Taicang in July is around 230,000 tons, and the current high basis in Taicang may lead to a correction later [4]. 4. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at the port is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, which may lead to an increase in port methanol inventory [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts in Iran driving oil prices, which in turn influence the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Once the geopolitical tensions ease, the market will return to fundamentals. The weak demand for CPL and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene, combined with the pressure of South Korean pure benzene exports to China and high port inventories, keep the processing fees of pure benzene low, dragging down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the domestic and overseas maintenance peak, the average operation of downstream PS and ABS, and the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of terminal production scheduling, styrene is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are expected to be further compressed. Therefore, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2][9][151]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **2025 Pure Benzene and Downstream Production Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there are plans to add 210 million tons/year of pure benzene production capacity, with 97 million tons/year already realized and 113 million tons/year to be realized in the second half of the year. The production capacity expansion rate is 2.8% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4. Attention should be paid to the progress of the 2 reforming and cracking of Yulong Petrochemical's Phase I project. For styrene, the production capacity expansion pressure increases in the second half of the year, with only 500,000 tons of Yulong put into production at the beginning of the year, and the commissioning of Zhongtai Chemical postponed [7][22][23]. - **Pure Benzene Supply**: In the first half of 2025, pure benzene maintenance was concentrated, but port inventory pressure increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene production from January to May was 2.8%, mainly due to concentrated refinery maintenance from April to May. After June, domestic production capacity utilization rebounded rapidly. The port inventory pressure was due to a 62.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in imports from January to May and the weak downstream operation, especially the decline in CPL and aniline operations. The negative basis structure of pure benzene deepened to around - 80 yuan/ton in July, and the processing fees were at a historical low [36][38]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was less resilient than expected. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene industrial demand from January to May was 11%, with the growth rate of styrene production at 15% and the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand at 9% (21% in the previous year). CPL and aniline operations declined, while phenol operation was fair but later entered a loss state again, and adipic acid was in an over - supply and loss - reduction cycle [72]. - **Styrene Fundamentals**: In 2025, styrene production profits recovered in the first half of the year, and the operation rate increased. However, with the increase in domestic and overseas supply, production profits are expected to decline. In the first half of the year, overseas maintenance was concentrated, driving exports and reducing port inventories. In the second half of the year, as overseas operations resumed, ports will return to the inventory accumulation cycle. The styrene port inventory reached a historical low in May, and the basis fluctuated greatly. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand from the five major downstream industries of styrene from January to May was 11.7%. The production growth rates of PS and ABS were high but mainly converted into finished - product inventory pressure. The production capacity expansion of the three major hard plastics in 2025 was significant, but the actual demand increase may be less than expected [78][90][118]. 2. Market Analysis - In June, geopolitical conflicts in Iran drove oil prices, which in turn influenced the prices of pure benzene and styrene. After the conflicts eased, the market returned to fundamentals. The weak downstream demand for pure benzene and the high port inventory pressure dragged down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the maintenance peak and the decline in terminal production scheduling, it is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are under pressure [9]. 3. Strategy - Cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies. Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [10][151].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - downward cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt price decline again". When the futures rebound, there is a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price hike", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals and the price will fall again [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will rise in a volatile manner at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected demand in the off - season; the futures price will decline in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical reforms and increased production [3]. - Strategy recommendations: LC09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage; short LC2511 contracts at high prices; sell call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.3% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling LC2509 lithium carbonate futures, 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, they can buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Analysis - **Lithium Market Core Contradiction**: The lithium market is facing inventory pressure, slow de - stocking, and a medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance. There are two short - term price - movement logics [3]. - **Lithium Market利多因素**: Improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warehouse receipts will boost the futures market price [6]. - **Lithium Market利空因素**: High future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure on ore prices, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium ore and lithium salt, and postponed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [5][7]. Market Data - **Futures Market Data**: - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day; the trading volume is 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots or 22.11%; the open interest is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots or 2.61% [9]. - The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 63,720 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.25%; the trading volume is 36,817 lots, down 10,160 lots or 21.63%; the open interest is 98,399 lots, up 4,871 lots or 5.21% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Market Data**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,315 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.14% [18]. - **Lithium Salt Market Data**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate have increased, while the prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan or 0.75% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread Data**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and the domestic market has increased [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 22,880, a decrease of 300 from the previous day [36]. Downstream Market Data - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.36% [33].

2025/07/03 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 32.77% | 85.0% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 20.98% | 19.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高， | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | FG250 9 | 卖出 | 50% | 1050 | | 璃 | 管理 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月02日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569) 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703) 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间59000-62000 | 21.4% | 26.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2509 | 卖出 | 70% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 30% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 管理 | 未来有采购计划 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is showing strength, with the main contract trading at 4924.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.76% increase [1] - PVC powder exports have been a bright spot in demand, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 reaching 1.6985 million tons, a 56.07% increase compared to 1.0883 million tons during the same period last year [2] - As of the end of June, the domestic PVC downstream comprehensive operating rate is at 42.78%, down 3.37 percentage points from early June and down 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest point since mid-March 2025 [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight increase in domestic PVC maintenance this week, with a planned maintenance by Henan Yuhang, leading to a slight decrease in supply; however, overall supply remains high with significant new production plans expected in the future [3] - Demand continues to weaken as the domestic and international markets enter a demand off-season, with some domestic downstream operations affected by the rainy season [3] - The cost side is supported by reduced ethylene imports, while the situation in Inner Mongolia regarding electricity restrictions for calcium carbide needs to be monitored, which is expected to support PVC bottom prices [3] Group 3 - The operational strategy suggests a fluctuating market, with basic fundamentals still under pressure as the downstream enters the off-season; however, the gradual changes in basis and monthly spread are narrowing the space for arbitrage and hedging [4] - The ongoing delay of India's BIS certification is expected to contribute to the continued fluctuation of PVC prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, due to the impact of delivery game triggered by the expected cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures market has rebounded. However, after the price increase, the willingness to hedge is strong, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased. The market may return to the fundamentals and operate with a weak and volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On June 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,460 yuan/ton and closed at 62,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 389,727 lots, and the open interest was 330,824 lots, a decrease of 10,624 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 596,987 lots, a decrease of 18,035 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 296,883 lots from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 494,672, and the overall speculation degree was 0.83. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,2628 lots, an increase of 630 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, on June 30, 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market is in a game situation of "upstream price support and downstream price pressure". The overall market transaction is light, but some rigid demand orders support a slight price increase. Affected by the futures market, the spot price has also strengthened, but the fundamentals have not improved [1] Strategy - Overall, the market may return to the fundamentals and operate with a weak and volatile trend. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to sell and hedge at high prices. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, basis, and options [2]