Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the cyclical nature of stock market trends, particularly the performance of value and growth stocks over different periods [2][3][4]. - From 2016 to 2017, there was a bull market for large-cap value stocks, with significant increases in indices related to real estate, value, and dividends, leading to value style fund managers achieving top returns in 2017 [2]. - In contrast, from 2019 to 2021, large-cap growth stocks dominated the market, with sectors like consumption, pharmaceuticals, and new energy driving the growth, while value styles remained relatively subdued during this period [3][4]. Group 2 - The article predicts that by 2025, small-cap and growth stocks will experience a resurgence, with indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 leading the market for the first time in a decade [5][6]. - The performance of growth styles is expected to be strong, while the sectors that led the market in 2020-2021, such as consumption, may remain relatively weak in 2025 [6]. - The article emphasizes the benefits of having a mix of undervalued and overvalued stocks, allowing for strategic investment opportunities such as "buy low, sell high" as different stocks reach their valuation peaks at different times [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of China's economy is influenced by three key factors: consumption, real estate, and technological self-reliance, which are critical for achieving high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][3][5]. Consumption - China's resident consumption rate has been persistently low, with a rate of only 39.45% when per capita GDP reached $10,000 in 2019. Although there is an expected improvement by 2024, it remains 10% to 20% lower than that of major economies. This structural issue is attributed to insufficient social security, unstable resident expectations, and weak consumer confidence, compounded by pressures in education, healthcare, and elderly care [3]. - To unlock consumption potential, it is essential to enhance counter-cyclical policy support, improve social security levels, and expand the supply of quality services [3]. Real Estate - The era of large-scale and extensive expansion in real estate has ended, with the total housing supply issue largely resolved. However, there will be a long-term demand for improved and quality housing. The current low growth rate of fixed asset investment is primarily dragged down by a significant decline in real estate investment [3]. - Future real estate development must explore new models, focusing on urban renewal, community renovation, and infrastructure development, rather than relying on land finance and a single development model. Establishing a long-term mechanism that aligns the interests of the government, enterprises, and homeowners is crucial for the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector [3][4]. Technological Innovation - There is a pressing need to accelerate the transition from "follow-up innovation" to "frontier innovation" as a requirement of changing development stages and a key to achieving high-level technological self-reliance. This involves leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system and creating a vibrant innovation ecosystem [4]. - It is important to create an environment that allows various enterprises, especially private ones, to participate equally in major technological breakthroughs, reform the evaluation methods of scientific research, enhance tolerance and incentives for risk-taking, and establish a reasonable institutional framework between self-sufficiency and open cooperation [4]. Financial Role - Finance plays a crucial role in addressing the three aforementioned issues. It is essential for unlocking consumption potential, facilitating real estate transformation, and promoting technological innovation. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should continue to serve as a model and lead the way in exploring experiences during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]. - The resolution of the issues related to consumption, real estate transformation, and technological innovation is vital for achieving a balanced supply-demand relationship and ensuring smooth economic circulation, which is necessary for stable and sustainable economic development in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5].

当地时间周五，美股主要指数集体收跌，纳指跌超1%。以英伟达为首的科技股回调拖累了整体走势，英伟达、特斯拉、博通、AMD均跌超3%。创历史新 高后的获利了结或是美股周五下跌的主要原因。 从月线来看，8月份，道指涨3.2%，标普500指数涨1.91%，纳指涨1.58%。其中，道指、标普500指数连涨4月，纳指连涨5月。 中概股逆势走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.55%。热门中概股方面，阿里巴巴大涨近13%；2倍做多BABA ETF-KraneShares大涨25.65%，成交额134.18万 美元；2倍做多BABA ETF-GraniteShares大涨25.54%，成交额约2亿美元。从业绩来看，阿里巴巴最新公布的季度业绩凸显巨大韧性。 盘面上大型科技股多数下跌，拖累了整体走势。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌逾3%，Meta跌超1%，亚马逊跌逾1%，微软跌0.58%，苹果跌 0.18%，谷歌涨0.6%。 美股三大指数集体收跌纳指跌超1% 芯片股同样普遍下跌，费城半导体指数大跌3.15%。个股方面，迈威尔科技跌超18%，博通、超威半导体、台积电等跌超3%。其中，迈威尔科技在最新披 露的财报中给出的业绩指引不及市 ...

北京时间8月29日深夜，美股开盘跳水，三大指数齐跌。截至发稿纳指跌1.25%，道指跌0.43%，标普500指数跌0.75%。 每经编辑｜段炼 消息面上，8月29日，美国商务部公布7月物价数据。数据显示，美国通胀压力再次抬头。此外，美国7月贸易逆差暴增，远超预期。 英伟达又大跌，市值蒸发超万亿元 中国资产爆发，阿里涨超12% 科技七巨头全面下跌，截至发稿，英伟达再次大跌，一度跌超3.5%，市值蒸发超1450亿美元（约合人民币1万亿元），特斯拉跌近3%，亚马逊、Meta跌超 1%，此外，苹果、微软、谷歌均下跌。 国际金价飙升，纽约黄金期货站上3500美元/盎司，日内涨幅超1%。而纽约白银期货价格更是涨超2%。 美元指数再次跳水，又跌回98下方。 中国资产爆发，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超1.5%，阿里巴巴涨超12%，虎牙、百度、爱奇艺、B站等均大涨。 | Us BABA 阿里巴巴 | | | | | | 美股 | 港股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 134.237 美元 +14.667 +12.27% | | | | | | | | | 交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that institutions are optimistic about the continuation of policies and improvement in liquidity, with confidence in the long-term revaluation trend of Chinese assets [2][3] - Major technology sectors are favored for investment, with various institutions highlighting different opportunities within this space [5][6] Group 2 - Liquidity is expected to drive continued market growth, with significant improvements noted in domestic fiscal policies and market liquidity [3][4] - As of August 27, the average daily trading volume of A-shares exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, marking a historical high since 2010 [3] - The focus for the market will shift towards whether corporate performance can keep pace with valuation and sentiment recovery in the fourth quarter [4] Group 3 - The "big technology" sector is anticipated to maintain a structural market characteristic similar to that of the Nasdaq, with a long-term focus on resource optimization [6] - Analysts from various institutions are also looking at consumer and manufacturing sectors for potential investment opportunities, with a focus on cyclical recovery and long-term growth logic [7]

Consumption & Policy - National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to implement measures to boost consumption and stimulate market vitality [1] - NDRC to steadily implement consumer goods trade-in programs and accelerate policy formulation in areas such as first-release economy, digital consumption, and AI plus consumption [1] - Focus on promoting service consumption in areas like culture and tourism, sports events, and camping [1] - China aims to avoid disorderly competition in the development of artificial intelligence [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Group 1 - A-shares continue to show strength, with major indices reaching new highs, driven by strong performances in rare earth permanent magnets and non-ferrous metals, as well as active computing stocks [1] - The market's rise is attributed to two main factors: the dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve indicating a potential interest rate cut, and various positive news stimuli across sectors [1] - The total market turnover reached 31.411 trillion, an increase of 594.4 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,300 stocks rising [1] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains following the introduction of new regulations aimed at total quantity control of rare earth resource extraction and smelting, indicating a tightening supply and potential price increases [2] - The domestic smart computing infrastructure is expected to grow by over 40% by 2025, driven by the acceleration of smart computing center construction, creating new growth opportunities for related industries [3] Group 3 - Real estate stocks surged due to new policies in Shanghai that include reducing housing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing finance measures, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4][5] - The second quarter monetary policy report from the central bank emphasizes the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and improve financial systems [4] Group 4 - The white liquor sector is experiencing renewed activity, supported by ongoing demand for high-quality products and the upcoming consumption peak during traditional festivals [6]

ETF Market Overview - The overall performance of ETF products has been good in the past two weeks, with the largest increase seen in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF among major broad-based ETFs, and the technology sector ETF showing the highest growth among industry and thematic products [3][12] - The net outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs has slowed down, with net inflows observed in the Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000/2000 series ETFs, while the outflow from the CSI 300 and A series ETFs has also decelerated [3][13] - In the bond ETF sector, there has been significant inflow into government bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and credit bond ETFs, while short-term and local government bond ETFs have shifted from net inflow to net outflow [3][18] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, 15 new ETFs were established in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 10.12 billion shares, all of which are stock ETFs [3][22] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased significantly, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs rising by 207.63%, 101.55%, 63.74%, 28.88%, and 10.52% respectively [3][22] Thematic ETF Tracking - AI-themed ETFs have shown strong performance, with products tracking AI-related indices leading in returns over the past two weeks, achieving an average return of 17.55% and a net inflow of 2.145 billion yuan [3][28] - The technology sector ETFs have seen a shift from significant outflows at the beginning of the year to inflows since March, although recent weeks have shown a return to net outflows [3][18] - The renewable energy ETFs have transitioned from net outflows to net inflows, while dividend ETFs have shifted from net inflows to net outflows [3][18] Fund Management Scale Distribution - As of August 22, 2025, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 842.794 billion yuan, with E Fund's ETF management scale expanding by over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3][23]