"但需要注意的是，往后看，进入2026年后，在库存消耗完毕的背景下，此前选择自行消化成本、尚未提价的企业仍将 大概率在新一轮进口带来的成本压力下补涨，从而对通胀形成新的压力。"白雪说。 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国劳工统计局周二发布的数据显示，12月，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨0.3%，均和前值持平。 剔除能源和食品价格的核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，和上个月持平，环比上涨0.2%，和9月持平（10、11月数据因联邦政府 关门缺失）。 分析师认为，12月CPI数据基本符合市场预期，证实美国通胀在进一步降温，但不足以推动美联储在短期内再次降息。 12月CPI公布后，市场对美联储降息预期的变化不大。北京时间周三13:00左右，芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch数据显示， 1月不降息概率高达97.2%，较一日前增加1.6个百分点。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园对智通财经表示，美国12月CPI符合预期，整体表现比较平淡，仅食品分项同比略有抬升。 核心CPI略低于预期，主要是受二手车和通信服务的拖累。 东方金诚研究发展部副总监白雪对智通财经表示，美国12月CPI总体表现温和，打消了11月数据因政府停摆效 ...

Inflation Overview - The US CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, and the previous value was also 2.7%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with forecasts[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Food prices were a major driver, rising 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to overall inflation[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase contributing about 0.02 percentage points, while gasoline prices fell by 0.5%[2] - Core inflation was primarily driven by service prices, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.16 percentage points[2] Housing and Services Impact - Housing costs remained elevated, rising 0.4% month-on-month and contributing about 0.14 percentage points to inflation, accounting for nearly half of the overall increase[2] - Medical services and leisure services also showed strength, with medical services rising 0.4% and leisure services increasing by 1.8% month-on-month[2] Market Implications - The inflation results suggest a moderate outlook, with little change in market expectations for interest rate cuts; the probability of a rate cut in April increased from approximately 38% to 42% following the data release[2] - The current core inflation remains above 2.6%, indicating that discussions around rate cuts are possible but not guaranteed[2] Risks to Consider - Risks include the potential for service prices to decline less than expected, a directional reversal in energy prices, and renewed supply chain disruptions[5]

Inflation Data Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI remained at 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, the overall CPI growth was 0.3%, and the core CPI growth was 0.2%, consistent with pre-government shutdown levels[6] Sector Contributions to CPI - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with household and non-household food both rising by 0.7% month-on-month, marking a significant upward pressure on inflation[4] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, down from 4.1% in November, and a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, indicating a significant decline in energy price pressure[10] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, gold prices briefly rose before retreating, while U.S. stocks exhibited a "V" shaped recovery, and the dollar index strengthened slightly[5] - The probability of a rate cut in January is nearly 0%, while expectations for a rate cut in April have marginally increased but remain below 50%[5] Policy Outlook - The current monetary policy faces uncertainties, particularly regarding "political rate cuts" and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's independence due to political pressures[17] - The next Federal Reserve chair's selection could lead to differing policy paths, with potential candidates showing contrasting views on rate cuts and balance sheet management[17] Future Inflation Considerations - The inflation trajectory may trend towards moderation, with commodity price pressures showing signs of easing and service inflation continuing to decline[8] - Key variables to monitor for 2026 include energy prices and wage growth, as geopolitical tensions and labor market dynamics could influence inflation outcomes[8]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 in the U.S. was +0.31%, in line with expectations, while core CPI was +0.24%, below the expected +0.30%[3] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 2.68%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.64%, slightly below the expected 2.70%[3] - The weaker-than-expected core CPI was primarily influenced by declines in used car prices, a price war among telecom companies, and seasonal factors, which are expected to have a short-term impact[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - For Q1 2026, there are upward risks to U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data due to fiscal and monetary impulses, as well as seasonal factors[2] - The fiscal impulse for Q1 2026 is estimated to boost U.S. GDP by 2.79%, largely due to the end of government shutdowns[2] - Cumulative interest rate cuts of 75 basis points since September 2025 are expected to stimulate the economy in Q1 2026[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the weaker core CPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, leading to rises in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - However, asset prices later partially retraced the volatility caused by the monetary easing trades[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[4]

来源：@央视财经微博 【#多名美联储官员称不急于降息##分析预计美联储近期将保持利率不变#】当地时间13日，美国总统特 朗普再次就大楼翻修及降息问题抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称他"要么无能，要么腐败"。自第二次出任美 国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希望借此提振经济，降低政府借贷成本。因不满美联储未能 积极降息，特朗普此前多次批评美联储主席鲍威尔。不过有分析指出，由于当前美国通胀水平仍明显高 于2%的目标水平，在去年9月至12月连续三次降息25个基点后，预计美联储近期将保持利率不变。 ...

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 通胀上行压力不大 ——2025 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 投资要点： 宏 核心 CPI 同比低位走平。12 月 CPI 同比持平至 2.7%，与预期一致； 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，继续处于 2021 年 4 月以来的最低 水平。环比 0.2%，也低于预期 0.3%。从分项同比上看，能源通胀继续走低 对冲食品项反弹，核心商品和核心服务均延续低位持平，整体分项数据也 大都保持平稳。 观 点 评 能源通胀走低。12 月 CPI 能源项同比增速继续降至 2.3%，较上月下行 1.9 个百分点。油价方面，下半年以来油价中枢延续稳步回落的趋势，逐步 向 60 美元附近靠拢，主要与目前原油市场大背景还是供给过剩有关。根据 EIA 的数据，2026 年进一步过剩至 226 万桶/日，指向 2026 年原油价格大 概率依旧承压，对应能源通胀继续在低位震荡，不会对整体 CPI 形成较大 的拉动。但需注意地缘政治局部升温（俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等）或驱动油 价短期波动率加剧。 汽车通胀继续下滑。12 月核心商品同比增速录得 1.4%，与上月持平。 本月新车和二手车同比增速均继续 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that inflation in the U.S. is expected to moderate in 2025, with core inflation slightly below expectations and food inflation on the rise [1] - CITIC Securities believes that the impact of tariffs on prices may gradually weaken, and service inflation is likely to maintain a relatively ideal low-to-medium growth rate [1] - The cost of living is a key issue in the U.S. midterm elections, with Trump's recent directives regarding MBS purchases and credit card rate limitations aimed at addressing voter concerns about affordability [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities does not believe that the criminal investigation against Powell will pressure the Federal Reserve into aggressive rate cuts, maintaining the expectation of a pause in rate cuts in January and two rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. inflation is expected to remain subdued by December 2025, with core inflation slightly below expectations and food inflation on the rise [1] - The outlook for U.S. inflation may ease this year, as tariff impacts on prices are likely to diminish, while service inflation is expected to maintain a relatively ideal moderate growth rate [1] - The cost of living is a key issue in the U.S. midterm elections, with Trump's recent directives for the two housing finance agencies to purchase MBS and limit credit card interest rates likely aimed at addressing voter concerns about affordability [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the ongoing criminal investigation into Powell by U.S. prosecutors is unlikely to pressure the Federal Reserve into aggressive rate cuts, with expectations for the Fed to pause rate cuts in January and to implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year [1]

记者丨张嘉钰 吴斌 编辑丨江佩佩 当地时间1月13日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.8%跌近400点，标普500指数跌0.19%， 纳指跌0.1%。 科技股涨跌互现，英特尔涨超7%并创近两年新高，AMD涨超6%，Meta、亚马逊、微软跌超 1%。英伟达涨0.47%，据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月13日，据美国联邦公报显示，美国放宽 了对英伟达H200芯片出口到中国的监管规定。 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅▼ 名称 | | --- | | 谷歌(ALPHABET) 336.414 3.684 1.11% | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) 185.810 0.870 0.47% | | 261.050 0.800 0.31% 苹果(APPLE) | | 特斯拉(TESLA) 447.200 -1.760 -0.39% | | 微软(MICROSOF 470.670 -6.510 -1.36% | | 亚马逊(AMAZON 242.600 -3.870 -1.57% | | 脸书(META PLAT 631.090 - 10.880-1.69% | 银行股普跌，KBW银行指数下跌1.3%，摩根大通跌超4%。消息面上，据中国 ...

通胀警报仍未解除 12月CPI报告是近几个月来首次对通胀趋势进行完整盘点。由于去年秋季美国政府关门，美国劳工部未 能收集价格数据，在上一次通胀报告中不得不使用技术手段处理缺失数据。 随着美国12月核心消费者价格涨幅低于预期，美联储今年预期降息时点有所提前。 据央视报道，当地时间13日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，去年12月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 数据公布后，美国短期利率期货大幅上涨，交易员们进一步增加了对美联储降息的押注。尽管交易员们 仍认为，6月降息是最可能的结果，但4月降息的概率升至42%，高于数据发布前的38%。 尽管目前通胀率相比几年前有所放缓，但食品、保险等必需品价格仍远高于以往。美国12月份食品杂货 价格上涨0.7%，为2022年10月以来最大单月涨幅。与2024年同期相比，价格上涨了2.4%。 货币政策仍需谨慎 尽管美国就业市场眼下招聘乏力，但挥之不去的通胀隐忧或迫使美联储在决定2026年是否继续放宽货币 政策时保持谨慎。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，2026年美 ...