中日关系跌入冰点，美国却一反常态沉默：叫停100%关税，特朗普不想被拖进与中国的对抗？ 中日关系进入急冻期，这是所有人都看见的现实，高市早苗的挑衅让局势一路下坠，中方连续反制让东京坐立难安。 没有高调站队，没有替日本撑腰，没有重复"对华强硬论调"，反而是一种刻意保持距离的沉默。 这种沉默背后，不是冷漠，而是克制；不是无心插手，而是不愿被拖下水。 而就在同一时间，一则来自华盛顿的消息进一步印证了这种微妙变化，特朗普政府突然放缓对半导体征收100%关税的计划，态度前后矛盾，但方向却异常 清晰：美国不愿轻易激怒中国。 在全球政治棋盘上，沉默往往比言语更能说明问题。 而现在的美国，正在用沉默表明它不想为日本的鲁莽买单，更不想让中美关系被东京的冒险玩火逼上不归路。 美国的反常沉默，是从高市早苗把台海问题扯进日本国家安全那一刻开始的。 按照以往的惯性，只要涉及中国与盟友之间的摩擦，美国总会跳出来敲打中国，给盟友撑腰，顺便加几句大道理。 然而，在这场风暴最激烈的阶段，美国却展现出一种罕见的"旁观者姿态"。 然而这一次，美国不仅没有发声，甚至连象征性的"道义支持"都没有给日本。 更诡异的是，美国最近频繁与日本、韩国进行联合军 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the U.S. approach towards China under Trump's administration, highlighting a transition from confrontation to negotiation, particularly in trade relations, as a response to domestic and global economic pressures [1][3][20]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's initial trade war began in 2018, imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, which marked a significant escalation in U.S.-China tensions [1][3]. - Under Biden, tariffs on electric vehicles were increased to 100%, contributing to economic strain in the U.S. and rising inflation [3][5]. - Following the 2024 election, Trump indicated a willingness to negotiate trade issues with China, suggesting a potential reduction in tariffs if China made concessions on technology transfers [3][5][7]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Trump's administration recognized the need to stabilize relations with China after years of trade conflict, as trade volume increased by 8% but supply chains were disrupted [9][20]. - The administration's strategy involved being tougher on allies while easing restrictions on China, aiming to provide relief to the U.S. economy [11][20]. - A significant agreement was reached during the APEC summit on October 30, where tariffs on certain Chinese goods were reduced from 20% to 10%, indicating a strategic pivot towards cooperation [7][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Influences - The article references Zbigniew Brzezinski's views on U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing the importance of balancing power in Eurasia and the need for partnerships rather than confrontation [11][19]. - Brzezinski's perspective on China as a potential partner contrasts with his views on Russia, which he considered a threat, influencing U.S. policy directions [19][23]. - The article suggests that Trump's approach to China reflects a broader understanding of the geopolitical landscape, recognizing the necessity of cooperation in light of domestic pressures and global realities [20][23].

Group 1 - The article discusses the changing dynamics of U.S.-China soybean trade, highlighting Trump's recent calls for increased soybean orders from China despite previous trade tensions [1][3][5] - Historically, China accounted for a significant portion of U.S. soybean exports, with 28% of U.S. production going to China before 2011, and in the 2023-2024 market year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be around 25 million tons [3][5] - The ongoing trade war has led to a decline in soybean purchases from China, with U.S. farmers expressing frustration over the lack of orders despite a bountiful harvest [5][10] Group 2 - U.S. soybean farmers have reported that China has shifted its soybean orders to Brazil, completing approximately 8 million tons of soybean purchases for September, which poses a significant challenge for U.S. exports [10][12] - The relationship between China and Brazil has strengthened, with Brazil becoming a key player in the soybean market, which could further complicate U.S.-China negotiations [12][14] - Trump's administration has attempted to mitigate the impact of the trade war on farmers through financial aid, but the ongoing situation has led to increasing discontent among U.S. farmers [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].

根据美联储最新会议纪要，决策者内部对年底是否降息存在较大的观点对立。虽然随着美国政府结束停 摆，本周四美国劳工统计局9月非农就业数据即将恢复公布，但对于金融市场来说，这份已经滞后的数 据所蕴含的价值显然已大不如前。在持续不断的关税冲击之下，贸易战对美国物价的影响正在逐步显 现。据美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）统计，8月美国的核心CPI为2.7%，前值分别为2.6%、2.5%、 2.4%和2.3%。 根据美联储现任主席鲍威尔一贯的"鹰派"立场，在其尚未离任的情况下，美联储进一步降息可能性下降 或成不争之事实。理由在于，就业、通胀和经济前景是美联储最为倚重的关键数据。由于美国经济的产 业空心化和高消费、低储蓄特征明显，所以中国生产的商品一直以来都是维持美国物价稳定的关键支 撑。 自特朗普再次入主白宫以来，即使中美贸易摩擦不断，但截至2024年底，中国仍然是美国第二大进口商 品来源国和第三大出口目的地。美国关税对美国物价和美国经济增长的影响，不仅被白宫选择性忽视， 也被严重低估了。诚如美联储副主席杰斐逊11月17日在密苏里州演讲时所称的那样，"最终实施的关税 率、传递给消费者价格的范围和时间、供应链和国内制造的反应 ...

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 据新华社报道，当地时间11月19日，美国联邦储备委员会公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于经济温和扩张、劳动力市场逐步降温但 未现急剧恶化，美联储官员对12月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧。这一决议符合市场预期，主要原因在于，长达43天的美国联邦政府停 摆，使得就业和通胀等关键数据缺失，而这些都是美联储决策所依赖的关键变量。 受数据迷雾的影响，美联储货币政策的能见度大大下降。在这一情况下，美联储官员们的发声，成为了市场观察美联储接下来货币政策走 向的重要窗口。 11月17日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，在英国伦敦专业经济学家协会年度晚宴上，发表了《持续降息的理由》的主题演讲，认为政府 停摆导致数据缺失的挑战在许多方面被夸大了。政策制定者和预测者并非"盲目飞行"或在"迷雾中"，尽管政府关门，但美联储仍然拥有大 量私营和部分公共部门数据，提供了一幅不完美但完全可作参考的美国经济图景。而且根据这些数据，进一步降息的条件仍然具备。 但在美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊看来，当前利率的走向，需要继续根据最新的数据、不断变化的前景和潜在的风险进行平衡。在11月17 日于密苏里州 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China, particularly in the renewable energy sector, reflects the U.S.'s efforts to maintain its global dominance amid China's rapid industrial rise [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Actions - In 2024, the U.S. imposed punitive tariffs of up to 100% on electric vehicles from China, along with 25% and 50% tariffs on lithium batteries and solar cells, respectively [5]. - The European Union followed suit in October 2024, announcing additional tariffs ranging from 17% to 45% on Chinese electric vehicles, indicating a coordinated effort among Western nations to limit China's industrial exports [5][8]. Group 2: G7's Stance - The G7 emphasized concerns over China's trade practices in multiple meetings throughout 2024 and 2025, agreeing to monitor "non-market policies and practices" that target China's industrial subsidies [7][8]. - By 2025, G7 leaders committed to establishing a joint fund to support domestic industry transformation and introduced specific metrics such as minimum tax refund requirements and subsidy caps [7][8]. Group 3: Impact on Global Trade - Despite the tariffs, China's electric vehicle and solar product exports accounted for over 50% of the global market in 2024, demonstrating the resilience of China's green industry [13]. - Following the implementation of EU tariffs, Chinese electric vehicle exports to Europe dropped by 20%, but the market quickly shifted to emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, leading to a record export surplus of $1.2 trillion for China in 2025 [13][17]. Group 4: Internal Challenges in the West - The EU's economy showed signs of decline in 2025, with Germany experiencing four years of stagnation, partly due to supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs [13]. - France's efforts to achieve strategic autonomy were constrained by U.S. influence, despite contributing to a G7 fund aimed at supporting domestic battery production [13][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The G7's approach evolved from scattered responses in 2023 to a comprehensive suppression strategy by 2025, including punitive measures like retroactive tariffs and minimum price commitments [14]. - The ongoing confrontation between Western nations and China highlights the need for cooperation rather than conflict to foster global economic development [17].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government may delay the implementation of previously promised semiconductor tariffs, which could impact President Trump's economic agenda [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - U.S. officials have privately indicated that semiconductor tariffs may not be implemented soon, reflecting a more cautious approach from the government [1] - Trump's aides are reportedly stalling on the chip tariff issue to avoid trade conflicts with China, which could disrupt critical rare earth mineral supplies [1] - The government is still debating the timing and details of the tariffs, which could potentially reach triple-digit percentages [1] Group 2: Government Stance - White House spokesperson and Commerce Department officials denied any change in the government's position regarding semiconductor tariffs [2] - The Commerce Department stated that there has been no change in policy regarding the semiconductor 232 tariffs, without providing a timeline for final decisions [2] Group 3: Economic Context - The timing is sensitive for Trump, as rising consumer anxiety over holiday shopping prices could be exacerbated by increased import taxes on semiconductors, affecting costs of various electronic devices [2] - Trump recently canceled tariffs on over 200 food items but claimed that import taxes have not significantly impacted inflation [2] - Since President Biden took office, inflation rates have consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve's target level [2] Group 4: National Security Concerns - Trump believes that tariffs can help revive domestic manufacturing jobs that have been lost to other countries, including China [3] - In April, the Trump administration announced investigations into drug and semiconductor imports to assess national security risks associated with reliance on foreign production [3]

2024年11月，特朗普刚刚在美国大选中获胜，就开始对加拿大施压。他威胁要对加拿大征收25%的关税，声称这是为了应对边境的毒品问题和非法移民流 入。面对这种威胁，加拿大总理特鲁多急忙飞往佛罗里达的马阿拉歌庄园，与特朗普坐下来吃晚餐商讨对策。在晚餐上，特朗普毫不客气地提出了一个极端 的建议：不如让加拿大直接成为美国的第51个州，并且特鲁多可以担任这个州的州长。这个提议一出来，加拿大的高级官员们纷纷表态，表示加拿大是一个 主权国家，绝不会同意这一建议。 特朗普在上台之前，便在社交媒体上发出了类似的信号。2024年12月2日，他在一条帖子中暗示，如果加拿大无法解决贸易和边境问题，那就应该考虑并入 美国。不到一周的时间，12月11日，他再次公开称特鲁多为州长，并表示如果加拿大选择合并，那么美国每年给加拿大的1亿美元援助就不需要了，直接合 并更划算。对此，加拿大外交部长梅兰妮·乔利立即回应，强调这不是玩笑话，加拿大将全力抵抗特朗普施加的关税压力。 事实上，加拿大的经济确实在很大程度上依赖美国，尤其是出口。加拿大75%的出口都流向美国，包括汽车、木材和石油等。如果加征关税，可能会导致加 拿大的失业率大幅上升。2025年1 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来 源 ： 内容 编译自路透 。 据两名直接了解此事的人士和一名听取了相关谈话的人士透露，美国官员私下表示，他们可能不会很 快对半导体征收长期承诺的关税，这可能会推迟特朗普总统经济议程的核心内容。过去几天，这些官 员已向政府和私营企业的利益相关者传达了这些信息。第四名关注此事的人士也表示，政府正在采取 更为谨慎的做法。此前，这些讨论并未被报道过。 据两位知情人士透露，特朗普的助手们在芯片关税问题上进展缓慢，他们正努力避免因贸易问题引致 纷争，以免重燃针锋相对的贸易战，并扰乱关键稀土矿物的流通。这两位知情人士谨慎地表示，在政 府最终批准之前，任何决定都不能算数，并称随时可能征收三位数的关税。消息人士匿名发言，是为 了转述有关政策讨论的私下谈话。特朗普曾在8月份表示，美国将对进口半导体征收约100%的关税， 但豁免在美国生产或承诺在美国生产的企业。过去几个月，华盛顿官员私下曾告诉知情人士，政府很 快就会推出关税措施。但随着政府继续讨论实施时间和其他细节，这一说法现在有所改变。 白宫发言人和商务部官员在被问及相关讨论时，否认政府已调整立场。发言人库什·德赛表示："特朗 ...