2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 112.510 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 107.870 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.11%报 105.755 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.418 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 5 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1398 亿 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 我想简单聊聊铜，细节的很多内容之前都已经分享过了。如果没有意外的话，下面这段话也会是这个月 我很多分享的开场白。如果我没有机会说完这么多话，那我至少把它写了下来 商品，在大部分时候，都是在成本支撑和刺激价格之间移动，然后因为一些供需的矛盾，或者宏观的起 伏，会涨破刺激价格，或者跌穿成本支撑。中国投资者在研究很多商品上具有得天独厚的优势，因为中 国是下游的目的地，目前也在努力拓展上游的资源供应，所以在刺激价格和成本支撑的判断上，在货物 的流向上，有得天独厚的优势。所以我一直心存感激，是中国在商品领域的禀赋，让我们有机会去获得 一些研究的优势。 因此在大部分国内的商品品种上，过度研究宏观完全是自讨苦吃，因为他们大部分被供需影响，不被宏 观过分影响。所以没有必要。而在少数类似金，铜，油这样的品种，宏观的占比会稍微大一点，那么作 为一个自上而下看商品的人，我们的作用其实非常简单，不需要那么复杂的研究，只需要搞清楚宏观的 场景到底是逢低买，还是逢高空。事实上，我不是为宏观研究者开脱，但我确实觉得低是多低，高是多 高这个问题不应该由宏观回答。 但很多时候事与愿违，不 ...

Core Insights - Since 2025, silver prices have significantly increased, outperforming gold in both futures and spot markets [1] - As of December 5, silver prices reached $58.11 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.76% [1] Market Trends - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei area, there has been a surge in demand for silver jewelry and ingots, with prices for silver jewelry reaching 16.52 yuan per gram and silver ingots at 13.378 yuan per gram, marking historical highs [3] - The best-selling silver ingots are 500 grams and 1000 grams, as many retail investors are shifting from gold to silver due to the higher price of gold limiting its upside potential [4] Investment Dynamics - The price of silver has shown a strong upward trend, starting from $29.41 per ounce at the beginning of 2025, surpassing $50 in October and $57 in November, approaching the psychological level of $60 [4] - Compared to gold, the price difference between buying and selling silver is larger, making it more challenging for investors to liquidate their silver investments [4] Influencing Factors - Analysts attribute the rise in silver prices to three main factors: ongoing optimism in precious metals, a tight global silver supply, and a favorable liquidity environment for financial assets like silver [5] - The current high "gold-silver ratio" suggests significant room for correction, while industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, supports silver prices [5] Market Sentiment - There are emerging signals of caution as the market shifts from a "short" to a "long" position in silver, indicating potential profit-taking pressure as prices rise [6] - The trading dynamics show discrepancies in market sentiment, with fluctuations in position sizes and trading volumes, suggesting that the current price increase may not be driven by a unified bullish sentiment [8]

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The automotive industry is experiencing a dual phenomenon of "localization in China" and "de-Chinaization," driven by geopolitical factors, market dynamics, and industrial upgrades, reflecting a dynamic balance in globalization and regionalization [2][8] - Major automotive companies are increasingly adopting a "China for China" strategy, moving beyond simple localization to deeper integration in response to the rapid transformation towards new energy and intelligent vehicles in the Chinese market [3][6] Group 2: Actions by Automotive Companies - Volkswagen Group has accelerated innovation in China, investing approximately 7.5 billion yuan to establish a major R&D center in Hefei, which has shortened new product development cycles by 30% [6] - Toyota has appointed a Chinese national as the general manager of Toyota China and implemented a "Chief Engineer in China" system, shifting product development leadership to local engineers [6] - Ford has unified its sales channels by establishing a wholly-owned sales service company to enhance brand experience, while General Motors has achieved over 99% localization in its supply chain in China [7] Group 3: De-Chinaization Trends - Some foreign automakers, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns, are attempting to reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers, with reports of European companies seeking to replace Chinese-made semiconductors [8][9] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs and trade restrictions on China, prompting some companies to consider "de-Chinaization" strategies to maintain competitiveness in the face of rising costs [9][10] Group 4: Resilience of Chinese Supply Chain - Despite external pressures, the attractiveness of the Chinese market continues to drive companies to maintain close ties with Chinese supply chains, particularly in the automotive sector [13][17] - China's supply chain has shown significant resilience and competitiveness, with many companies establishing a robust multinational supply system since 2018 [14][18] - The transition of supply chains may incur initial costs of 30% to 50%, but the efficiency of integrating with existing Chinese supply chains remains advantageous [14][15] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese automotive market is expected to continue its rapid growth, with a shift in how vehicles are perceived, moving from mere transportation to mobile living spaces [17] - The integration of AI and smart technologies is enhancing the potential of vehicles, prompting multinational companies to localize R&D and decision-making processes in China [17][18] - The ongoing transformation from "localization in China" to "de-Chinaization" and ultimately to a new global balance reflects the evolving landscape of the global automotive industry, with China playing an increasingly pivotal role [18]

2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约 0.38%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力 0.44%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约 0.61%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约 0.39%。 国务院国资委召开国有企业对标世界一流企业价值创造行动推进会。会议强调， 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 国债： 上一 ...

随着黄金价格重拾升势，同类产品最低费率的黄金ETF华夏（518850）12月3日净流入2.03亿元，规模 突破百亿大关。 短短三年间，黄金从每盎司1614美元攀援而上，在去年上涨27%之后，今年以来再度涨超50%，这样的 斜率堪称历史罕见。 人们难免追问：4000美元的金价，究竟在为什么疯狂？背后藏着怎样的市场逻辑？更关键的是，面对这 看似高不可攀的点位，普通人又该如何在波动中锚定自己的资产安全感？ 这种反常并非偶然，背后藏着的是黄金的定价逻辑的根本性转变——它已从单纯的避险、抗通胀工具， 进化成为主权信用对冲利器。 这个身份的转变，才是驱动金价打破常理的核心动力，而这一切又源于当下全球正在发生的两大不可逆 趋势。 第一波推力来自去美元化的浪潮。 曾经全球央行的储备资产里，美债是重要的压舱石。但如今风向变了，全球央行黄金储备30年来首次超 过美债持有量，我国央行更是连续11个月增持黄金，储备规模直接突破2300吨。 01狂飙的金价，到底在定价什么？ 按过去的规律，黄金属于无息资产，当美债实际利率走高时，投资者会抛售黄金转投美债。但2022年俄 乌冲突后，即便美债实际利率持续高位，金价依旧一路狂飙。 02黄金的 ...

随着黄金价格重拾升势，同类产品最低费率的黄金ETF华夏（518850）12月3日净流入2.03亿元，规模突破百亿大关。 短短三年间，黄金从每盎司1614美元攀援而上，在去年上涨27%之后，今年以来再度涨超50%，这样的斜率堪称历史罕见。 人们难免追问：4000美元的金价，究竟在为什么疯狂？背后藏着怎样的市场逻辑？更关键的是，面对这看似高不可攀的点位，普通人又该如 何在波动中锚定自己的资产安全感？ 01狂飙的金价，到底在定价什么？ 这个身份的转变，才是驱动金价打破常理的核心动力，而这一切又源于当下全球正在发生的两大不可逆趋势。 第一波推力来自去美元化的浪潮。 曾经全球央行的储备资产里，美债是重要的压舱石。但如今风向变了，全球央行黄金储备30年来首次超过美债持有量，我国央行更是连续11 个月增持黄金，储备规模直接突破2300吨。（来源：Wind） 按过去的规律，黄金属于无息资产，当美债实际利率走高时，投资者会抛售黄金转投美债。但2022年俄乌战争后，即便美债实际利率持续高 位，金价依旧一路狂飙。 这种反常并非偶然，背后藏着的是黄金的定价逻辑的根本性转变——它已从单纯的避险、抗通胀工具，进化成为主权信用对冲利器。 ...

转自：新华财经 •东证期货：短期市场对12月降息已有充分定价 贵金属延续震荡走势 •广州期货：美国11月ADP就业低于预期 贵金属价格窄幅震荡 •西南期货：美联储有望持续降息 贵金属延续上涨趋势 德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）在一份新的研究报告中称，受官方部门强劲买盘、供需状况趋紧以及投 资者流动性企稳的支撑下，黄金价格可能在2026年逼近每盎司5000美元大关。该行补充称，第三季度的 供需数据表明，各国央行对黄金的兴趣仍存，第三季度以实际美元计的官方黄金需求达到有记录以来第 三高水平。主要来自央行和ETF的"非弹性需求"上升，继续转移珠宝市场的供应。在对地区局势风险担 忧和多元化需求的推动下，各国央行的需求依然特别强劲。 编辑：郭洲洋 •WisdomTree：金价处于合理水平 下跌空间有限 •德意志银行：黄金将继续上涨 2026年可能触及5000美元 【机构分析】 东证期货表示，金价震荡收涨在每盎司4200美元附近，美国经济数据显示劳动力市场继续走弱，11月 ADP就业人数下降、ISM非制造业PMI就业分项持续处于收缩区间。另外，哈塞特大概率成为下任美联 储主席人选也强化了市场对于未来美联储将实施 ...

2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.26%报 113.610 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.040 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.850 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.420 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 3 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 793 亿 元 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a trend of de-globalization in the automotive industry, particularly among Western companies seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, which poses a risk to global economic cooperation [1][2] - It argues that maintaining a robust global supply chain is beneficial for all countries, including China, as it has historically led to economic growth and improved living standards [2][3] - The article emphasizes that China's comprehensive supply chain advantages, including cost efficiency and innovation, should be leveraged to counteract de-globalization efforts and maintain competitiveness in the global market [3][4] Group 2 - It suggests that China should utilize its supply chain strengths strategically to negotiate better international economic and political conditions, rather than resorting to isolationist policies [4][5] - The article advises industries and companies to adapt their strategies for global supply chains by considering local economic impacts and fostering integration into local markets [5][6] - It stresses the importance of managing cultural and operational conflicts when expanding internationally, prioritizing national interests over individual corporate benefits [5][7]