Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum remains weak, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals have seen a large increase recently, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. - The price of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. - There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [26]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - position opportunities [29]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [32]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [34]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44]. - Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [46]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Palm oil investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. - Cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [58]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [61]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [63]. - For live pigs, consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [66]. - For eggs, consider holding short positions [68]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [72]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 94.7 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals is large, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The price of rebar is expected to remain weak in the medium term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The supply - demand pattern supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - The previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures rebounded slightly. They are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. Investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to changes in the raw material market and supply [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be oversupplied, and investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [33]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PX changes little, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee of PTA has declined significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investors should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and it is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The export growth rate of bottle chips has slowed down, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost side [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper bottomed out and rebounded. Sino - US tensions have eased, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [45]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin declined. The supply of tin is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose slightly. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned that palm oil fell for three consecutive days. Palm Oil - Palm oil fell for three consecutive days. There are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Similar to palm oil, there are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [55]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton rose, and overseas cotton fell. Sino - US relations may improve, but cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [57]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom, and overseas sugar declined. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and investors should wait and see [59]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The quality of late - maturing apples this year is poor, and investors should wait and see [62]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live pig futures contract rose. The supply in October is expected to increase. Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [64]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices were flat. The egg supply in October is expected to increase year - on - year, and consumption may fall short of expectations. Consider holding short positions [67]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn futures contract fell, and the corn starch futures contract rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [69].

Group 1: Metal Industry Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a demand rebound, but the recovery is not as strong as in previous years, with short-term price fluctuations expected [2] - Copper prices have been under pressure due to previous U.S. tariff policies, but expectations surrounding U.S.-China trade talks and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may alleviate downward pressure [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by stable fundamentals and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [2] - Gold prices may face short-term correction risks due to upcoming U.S.-China negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, but geopolitical tensions could provide support [2] - Lithium prices are expected to be supported by resilient demand, particularly in energy storage, as disruptions in mining operations in Jiangxi have eased [2] - Rare earth prices may face pressure if export controls are tightened, with attention on the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - For the steel sector, policies promoting precise capacity control and quality improvement are expected to enhance the competitive landscape and profitability of steel companies [3] - The copper supply outlook is tightening due to incidents at major mines, suggesting a potential price floor; focus on companies with strong resource guarantees and environmental standards [3] - In the aluminum sector, the "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve the supply landscape, with a focus on demand recovery during peak seasons [4] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. government stability and geopolitical issues, with long-term interest rate uncertainty potentially benefiting gold [4] - The rare earth sector is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to heightened strategic importance and export control policies [5] - Cobalt supply constraints are anticipated due to limited export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from electric vehicles and energy storage remains strong [5] Group 3: Machinery Equipment Industry Insights - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with significant growth in excavator sales and a favorable policy environment promoting effective demand expansion [6][7] - The import and export trade of engineering machinery in September reached $5.505 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.1% [6] - The machinery equipment industry is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 31.63, with a premium of 133.41% over the CSI 300 index [6] - The sector's outlook is positive, driven by ongoing demand from infrastructure projects and a shift towards commercial competition in humanoid robotics [7]

Core Points - Airbus has launched its second A320 assembly line in Tianjin, China, with full operations expected by early 2026, indicating a commitment to expanding its local supply chain despite geopolitical challenges [1][3] - The new assembly line will double Airbus's production capacity in China, contributing to the anticipated demand for 9,500 aircraft in the Chinese market over the next 20 years, which represents about 20% of global demand [3][4] - The A320 series has surpassed the Boeing 737 in total deliveries, becoming the best-selling commercial aircraft, despite being launched 20 years later [3] Summary by Sections Production Capacity - The second assembly line in Tianjin will enhance Airbus's production capacity, allowing for a total of 10 assembly lines globally, with 2 located in Tianjin [3] - The new facility will utilize the latest technology and processes, adhering to Airbus's highest global standards [3] Market Demand - The Chinese aviation market is experiencing continuous growth, with a projected demand for 9,500 aircraft over the next two decades [3] - By the end of this year, Airbus's total assembly volume in China is expected to exceed 800 aircraft [3] Geopolitical Context - Airbus acknowledges the complexities of the current global landscape, including trends of de-globalization, and emphasizes the importance of reliable partnerships [4] - The establishment of the Tianjin assembly line is seen as a strategic move to strengthen Airbus's resilience against external challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - Airbus aims to be a long-term, reliable partner in China, emphasizing its commitment to the Chinese aviation market and the importance of local partnerships [1][3]. Group 1: Airbus Operations in China - The second A320 assembly line in Tianjin has commenced production, marking a significant step in Airbus's collaboration with China since the first line was established in 2008 [1][3]. - The Tianjin assembly line has delivered over 780 A320 aircraft, with expectations to surpass 800 by the end of the year. The new line will double the assembly capacity in Tianjin, enhancing global production capabilities [3][4]. - Approximately 20% of the aircraft produced in Tianjin were delivered to international customers last year, showcasing the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Supply Chain - Airbus forecasts a demand for around 9,500 new aircraft in China by 2043, accounting for over 20% of the global demand during the same period, reflecting strong market potential [3]. - Airbus has established a supply chain network in China comprising hundreds of companies, including both large partners and numerous small and medium-sized enterprises, creating a vibrant ecosystem [3][4]. Group 3: Global Strategy and Localization - Airbus acknowledges the challenges posed by de-globalization but emphasizes the importance of localization in maintaining flexibility and resilience in a fragmented global landscape [4]. - The company operates production lines in France, Germany, the United States, and China, which supports its strategy to adapt to changing global industry dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in gold and silver prices are attributed to the easing of market risk aversion and profit-taking by investors, despite a long-term bullish outlook for precious metals [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On October 21, gold prices fell over 6% to $4086 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, while silver prices dropped over 8% to below $48 per ounce, the largest decline since 2021 [1]. - Domestic futures markets also saw significant declines, with Shanghai gold and silver contracts dropping 4.64% and 4.86%, respectively [1]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections have absorbed many profit-taking positions, indicating a potential for future price stability [1][8]. Group 2: Risk Factors Easing - Three major risk factors that previously supported gold prices have shown signs of easing: 1. Optimistic developments in U.S.-China trade relations, with President Trump expressing intentions to visit China and engage in trade discussions [3]. 2. Hopes for an end to the U.S. government shutdown, as Democratic leaders are negotiating to resolve the situation [4]. 3. A relative easing of geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict, with leaders expressing support for negotiations to achieve a ceasefire [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price corrections, analysts maintain that the long-term bull market for precious metals is far from over, driven by factors such as the weakening of the dollar's dominance and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][8]. - Investment in gold remains attractive, with analysts suggesting that current market conditions present suitable buying opportunities for long-term investors [8]. - The historical context of the 1970s gold bull market is referenced, indicating similarities in current market dynamics, including concerns over dollar liquidity and the independence of the Federal Reserve [8]. Group 4: Additional Insights - Following the rapid increase in gold prices, copper is expected to experience a rebound due to its strategic importance in global energy transitions and technological advancements [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 4.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.92% [6] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion in the anti-aging business and is expected to see significant growth in its lubricant additives business [6] - The company plans to establish a subsidiary in Singapore and invest up to 300 million USD to build a research and production base in Malaysia, enhancing its international strategy [6] - The company has successfully completed the second phase of its expansion project, increasing its capacity to 133,000 tons per year, which is expected to drive revenue growth [6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 6.095 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 505 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18 [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 21.97%, showing improvements compared to previous quarters [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain strong in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The chemical industry is anticipated to experience a phase of price and profit level rebound in Q2 2024, although overall performance for the year will remain under pressure [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with marginal supply-demand changes, focusing on both domestic and global market dynamics [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators such as the comprehensive prosperity index of the chemical industry and industrial added value [3]. Price Indicators - It includes analysis of PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI, along with price differentials for chemical products [3]. Supply-side Indicators - Key metrics include capacity utilization rates, energy consumption, fixed asset investment, inventory levels, and ongoing construction projects [3]. Import and Export Indicators - The report breaks down the contribution of import and export values [3]. Downstream Industry Performance - It examines the performance of downstream sectors such as PMI, real estate, home appliances, automotive, and textiles [3]. Economic Efficiency Indicators - The report discusses three major economic efficiency indicators for the industry [3]. Global Macro and End Market Indicators - It analyzes global macroeconomic indicators including purchasing manager indices, GDP year-on-year growth, civil construction starts, consumer confidence indices, and automotive sales [3]. Global Chemical Product Prices and Differentials - The report provides insights into the prices and differentials of chemical raw materials, intermediate products, and sub-industries like resins and fibers [3]. Global Industry Economic Efficiency Indicators - It covers changes in sales revenue, profitability, growth capacity, solvency, operational capacity, and per-share indicators [3]. Chemical Product Prices and Production Indicators in Europe and the US - The report includes prosperity indicators, confidence indices, capacity utilization rates, production indices, PPI, and production indices for the chemical industry in Europe and the US [3].

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's equipment manufacturing industry lies in continuous openness and global collaboration rather than in closed barriers [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The equipment manufacturing industry is crucial for national economic development and reflects comprehensive national strength, characterized by high technology content, significant capital investment, and high value-added compared to traditional manufacturing [3]. - China's equipment manufacturing, especially in the automotive sector, has seen remarkable advancements over the past 20 years, driven by substantial independent innovation and patents [4][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - Weichai Group achieved over 250 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters of this year, marking a 6% year-on-year increase, with growth in profit and sales across various products [4]. - Weichai's engine export revenue grew over 30% year-on-year, reaching a historical high [5]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) reported a 24.5% increase in heavy truck exports, with September sales exceeding 15,000 units, setting a new industry record [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Development - Continuous innovation is essential for development, with a focus on integrating high-tech industries with traditional sectors to foster mutual growth [8]. - Zhongtong Bus has successfully secured large orders in overseas markets by emphasizing resource allocation towards internationalization and enhancing technological innovation [8][9]. Group 4: Market Strategy - Companies are adopting strategies to localize operations and product offerings to better meet regional market demands, which helps mitigate trade barriers [13][15]. - The optimization of supply chains and the establishment of a global service network are critical for enhancing competitiveness in international markets [12][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The equipment manufacturing industry is gradually breaking free from low-end constraints and repositioning itself in global divisions of labor through industry chain optimization and international expansion [15]. - Companies are expected to achieve significant export targets, with projections indicating a 6-7% increase in export revenue for Shandong Heavy Industry Group in the first three quarters [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [6][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, so a certain degree of caution is required [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. It is expected that the market volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, precious metal futures declined. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. But the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the steel price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected that the rebar price will remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern still supports the price, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, it may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply pressure of coking coal is not large, and the demand for coke remains high. Technically, they may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, ferroalloy futures rose slightly. The current supply of ferroalloys is still in excess in the short - term, but the cost has increased at a low level. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to concerns about supply surplus. Although the Baker Hughes rig count has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still challenging. Geopolitical risks have eased, which is negative for crude oil prices, but there is some support near the integer level. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated and remained near recent lows. The Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. The main fuel oil contract strategy is to widen the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. In the short - term, the butadiene rubber market will maintain a weak and wide - range oscillation. The market may stop falling and rebound due to supply factors. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures declined. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The rubber price may follow the macro - led market. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [29][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the festival, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The main strategy is to pay attention to supply - side changes [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed flat. Last week, the decline of urea stopped and the price rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly this week. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown some improvement. The downward space is limited [35][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance of PX has become looser. The PXN spread is relatively strong, but the cost is weak and the demand support is insufficient. PX may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. Investors should control their positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has dropped significantly, and the inventory is at a low level with some support at the bottom. However, the demand improvement is limited, and the external crude oil price is weakly adjusted. PTA may oscillate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Recently, the supply has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost of crude oil is weak. Ethylene glycol may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the demand is average, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost support is weak. It may oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Recently, the raw material price has been weakly adjusted in an oscillatory manner, the bottle - chip load has slightly increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [45]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward due to the easing of Sino - US tensions. The dollar index is at a phased low, and copper prices are strongly adjusted at a high level. The reopening of the Indonesian copper mine has been delayed, and the Sino - US negotiation has improved again, which supports copper prices. The main Shanghai copper contract can be temporarily observed [46][48]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin is generally tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is further depleted. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [49]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about the supply due to the change in the RKAB approval in Indonesia. The mine price has weakened, and the high - grade nickel ore is still in short supply. The stainless - steel consumption is still weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill crushing continues to be in loss. The Brazilian soybean arrival price has slightly declined, providing some cost support. New - season US soybeans are being harvested, which may bring some short - term pressure. After the adjustment of soybean meal, investors can consider long - call options in the support range. Soybean oil is slightly stronger than soybean meal, but the supply - demand is weak, so it is advisable to temporarily observe [54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in September was higher than expected. The export volume from October 1 - 20 increased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. The domestic rapeseed inventory has decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. The main strategy for rapeseed oil is to consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [58][59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward due to the improvement of Sino - US relations. The new - season domestic cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the cotton price is under pressure from hedging and harvesting. It is expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure [60][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level. The Brazilian sugar production slightly exceeded expectations. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the sugar price rebound. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. It is advisable to observe [64][66]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is advisable to observe [67][68]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of October. After short - term profit - taking of short positions, investors can temporarily observe and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The arbitrage strategy can consider reverse arbitrage [69][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg supply is expected to increase year - on - year in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions can be held [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the corn price may be under pressure. The corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market. It is advisable to observe [74][76].

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 20th day with no resolution in sight, as multiple attempts to pass a temporary funding bill have failed, marking the tenth unsuccessful attempt [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a meeting on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards a further 25 basis point rate cut to support a weakening job market while aiming to bring high inflation back to 2% [1] - Spot gold prices surged over 2% on Monday, reaching a new historical high of $4,381.49 per ounce during trading, closing at $4,355.69 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of October 20, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has seen a net asset value increase of 55.69% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 11.46% since inception [2] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has reached a record high of 377 million shares, with a recent net inflow of 658 million yuan, leading its category [2] - The ETF primarily invests in Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, aiming to provide returns closely aligned with the performance of these contracts while minimizing tracking deviation [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) offers a cost-effective and convenient investment option in gold without physical delivery, supporting T+0 trading [3]