以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期，相比于A股，我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注， 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴，原本想"make America great again"，最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天，每天 两三个点的涨幅，确实是简直了…… 然而，这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的，也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然，尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系，但其次这一次 大跌，也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图：当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源：Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢？我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先，国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率，指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度，对于前天收盘的国际金价，它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...

天空才是尽头，黄金价格已经无敌了。投行们也都在喊加仓，高盛甚至将目标价喊出4500美元/盎司的极端价格， 特朗普也来凑热闹，发出"拥有黄金者制定规则"的逆天言论。 智通财经APP了解到，黄金现货价格按月持续飙升，3月突破3100美元/盎司，4月再度突破3400美元/盎司，按年呈 现加速上涨的态势，2023、2024以及2025年至今涨幅分别为13.7%、26.4%及32.9%。而受金价上涨影响，黄金板块 标的今年获得了大幅的市值溢价，其中港股赤峰黄金（06693）年内涨幅高达1.4倍。 其实黄金价格一直处于上升的趋势，以黄金作为非货币后长达超半个世纪周期看，黄金价格穿越了时间周期，而空 间高度则不断刷新高。 那么黄金为何能一直涨？ 从时间节点看，1971年为重要的分界线，美国关闭黄金兑换窗口，黄金非货币化，而布雷顿森林体系解体，黄金的 储备及投资价值飙升，此外参与者从国家到社会多样化也驱动了黄金投资的繁荣，其三大属性，包括抗通胀、避险 以及央行储备属性不断被放大，推动价格从37.44美元/盎司涨至如今的3500美元盎司。 | 特征/时期 | 黄金非货币化前(1971 年以前) | 黄金非货币化后(1971年以 ...

智通财经APP注意到，由于美国总统特朗普对美联储采取强硬立场，投资者纷纷寻求欧洲避风港，导致 德国短期债券价格大幅上涨。 两年期德国债券收益率一度下跌6个基点，至1.62%，为2022年以来的最低水平，十年期德国债券收益 率也出现下跌。与此同时，投资者在周一抛售美国国债后，全面买入欧洲债券。 周二，美国国债期货价格下跌，而长期国债期货价格在周一大幅抛售后几乎没有变化。 投资者的注意力接下来将转向周二晚些时候举行的德国两年期国债拍卖——这一事件通常会推高收益 率，凸显出对德国债券的强劲需求。 德国收益率曲线的前端尤其具有吸引力，因为它有望受益于欧洲央行的进一步降息。尽管顽固的通胀阻 碍了美联储的宽松政策，但继上周第七次降息之后，欧洲央行已明确了进一步降息的路径。 周二，货币市场加大了对欧洲央行降息幅度的押注，预计年底前降息幅度略高于70个基点，较上周五收 盘价高出5个基点。包括马丁斯.卡扎克斯在内的政策制定者警告称，美国关税正在加剧不确定性，并加 大欧元区经济衰退的风险。 近几周，在全球市场剧烈波动之后，欧元区债券已成为投资者的避风港。通常被视为全球首要避风港的 美债，却因特朗普改革全球贸易的努力以及向美联储主 ...

金十数据4月22日讯，荷兰国际的弗朗西斯科•佩索莱在一份报告中表示，日元兑美元汇率在触及七个月 高位后，短期内应会继续得到支撑。他说，在特朗普总统再次呼吁美联储立即降息后，日元作为美元的 避风港替代品似乎很有吸引力。"由于国内经济形势好转，日元相较欧元从美元外流中获得的收益略 高。"与此同时，他表示，包括周五通胀在内的即将公布的数据，应该会支持日本央行逐步加息。 荷兰国际：作为美元的避险替代品 日元仍具吸引力 ...

期货热点追踪 再创新高！现货黄金价格站上3370，谁在改写避险游戏规则？点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment initially recovered due to the Trump administration's slight loosening in electronics - related tariff policies, but turned pessimistic as the latest US - EU trade negotiations stalled, pushing gold to a new all - time high. In the short to medium term, the impact of the trade war remains highly uncertain, and major - power games will continue to fluctuate. Gold, with its good hedging properties, is likely to rise easily and fall hard, and silver may also be supported by gold and show a strong - side oscillation [8]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In the precious metals market, London gold broke through the $3300 mark, reaching a record high of $3317.89 and then falling back to around $3295. London silver also rose and is trading around $32.9. Affected by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 2.68% at 781.6 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.5% at 8233 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, trading around 99.6 [4]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly, trading around 4.31% [5]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened lower and then rose slightly, trading around 7.316 [5]. Important Information - Tariff policy trends: Trump said on the 15th that the suspension of tariffs was for a transition period and flexibility, and would accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA. The EU and the US have made little progress in bridging trade differences, and most US tariffs on the EU will continue. Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico has strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the Texas border in the US have stalled [6]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.1%. The market bets that the Fed will cut rates once each in June, July, September, and December this year [6]. Logical Analysis - The market's risk sentiment changed from recovery to pessimism due to the situation of trade negotiations, which led to gold hitting a new high. Gold is expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall in the short - to - medium term, and silver may be supported by gold [8]. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [8]. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [9]. - For options, use the collar call option strategy [10]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals prices, the relationship between real yields and precious metals prices, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the gold - to - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S., reaching the highest level since 1910, with a broad 10% minimum baseline tariff set to take effect on April 5 [4][10] - The tariffs on key trading partners vary significantly, with China facing a 34% tariff, Vietnam 46%, the EU 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, and Thailand 36% [4][31] - The report indicates that the U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with China, the EU, and Mexico contributing 25%, 20%, and 14% respectively [4][31] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. tariffs has been characterized by a strong strategic stance, implementing countermeasures including a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and export controls on certain U.S. companies [3][8] - The report anticipates further escalation of the trade conflict, particularly given the U.S. administration's firm stance and the lack of effective agreements with other countries [9][10] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the face of high inflation and economic resilience is noted, with potential economic impacts from the tariffs expected to be more significant than previously anticipated [10][11] Group 3 - The report identifies "risk-off" sentiment in the market, with traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and the VIX index experiencing strong gains, while risk assets have faced significant declines [12][15] - It suggests that the current market environment is similar to past periods of heightened uncertainty, with a focus on defensive investment strategies [12][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend, domestic demand, and food security sectors as potential investment opportunities amid the ongoing trade tensions [15][20] Group 4 - The report outlines specific investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in high-dividend sectors, gold, semiconductor companies, and domestic consumption as a response to the trade conflict [20][22] - It highlights the potential for gold stocks to benefit from increased geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, as well as the opportunity for domestic semiconductor companies to gain from increased restrictions on imports [21][22] - The report also notes that agricultural stocks may benefit from the trade tensions, particularly those related to food security, as China imposes tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [22]

作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大 数 据（www.gogudata.com） 4 月 2 日，即明天，懂王说是美国的解放日。 然而，对于全球投资者来说，有可能是 "受难日"。 因为他的关税政策，已经在全球资本市场掀起了巨浪，逼得全球股市都进入了下跌模式，美股自己还是最惨的 一个，反之，避险之王的黄金价格，则节节攀升。 不管你信不信，反正市场走势已经说明一切。 避险，依然是当下的市场整体风格。 而且，即便已经下跌了不少，然而站在这个时点，市场神经依然高度紧绷。 因为懂王最终的全球关税政策如何，依然迷雾重重，但它也是影响市场涨跌最重要也是最关键的因素，没有之 一。 01 底牌到底如何？ 说实话，这个问题真的无法提前判断。 相信大家对于懂王各种烟雾弹的作风已经很清楚了，今天说东，明天说西，后天再来一个南，最后结果是北。 如果你没有定力，一定会被他绕晕，然后很容易糊里糊涂地做了一些不知所谓的交易，运气好可以获得一些盈 利，但更多的时候，应该是亏损的概率高一点。 就像昨晚，美股大跌，但最后因为特朗普说的 "友好"言论，又硬生生地拉了回来，但盘后、夜盘，又继续开 启下跌模式。 很明显，涨跌全靠特朗普，真不是一句虚话。 ...

| ○ 序号 | | 合约名称 | 涨幅% | 最新 现手 | 买价 | 卖价 | 买量 卖量 成交量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | + 1 | | 氧化铝2505™ | -3.28% | 2946 | 6 2945 | 2946 | 50 41 195424 | | 4 | 2 | 焦煤2505 w | -2.88% | 994.0 | 993.5 6 | 994.0 | 12 4 273324 | | + | 3 | 焦炭2505 -2.63% | | 1575.5 | 1 1575.0 1576.0 | 2 | 6 18604 | | + | বাঁ | 中原2505 W | -2.32% | 2486 | 16 2485 | 2486 1939 | 21 686963 | | + | 5 | 玻璃2505 M | -2.31% | 1185 | 47 1185 | 1186 2157 | 133 1592938 | | + | 6 | 鸡蛋2505 W | -2.28% | 2960 | 6 2960 | 2961 | 64 ...