Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, with a drop of $230 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of technical adjustments, macroeconomic changes, and market panic, despite the long-term value of gold remaining intact [1][21]. Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with silver also falling nearly 9%, marking the worst decline in four years [3][5]. - The market saw a rapid sell-off as retail investors reacted to the initial declines, leading to a cascading effect of stop-loss orders being triggered [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The key support level for gold was breached, causing a momentary tightening of market liquidity [5][12]. - Technical indicators had signaled an overbought condition for an extended period, contributing to the sell-off as both retail and institutional investors rushed to liquidate positions [7][12]. Economic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar has inversely affected gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically leads to reduced demand for gold [9]. - Recent easing of risk factors supporting gold, such as progress in conflict negotiations and declining inflation data, has diminished the urgency for investors to buy gold [9][10]. Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict stabilizes, gold prices could fall to a range of $2400 to $2700 per ounce [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, indicating sustained long-term demand [12][21]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain rational and avoid panic selling or blind bottom-fishing, as the market has not yet stabilized [15][19]. - It is recommended that gold holdings should ideally constitute 5% to 10% of an investment portfolio, with careful risk management strategies in place [19][21].

（原标题：崩了！黄金、白银！） 【导读】黄金白银暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚冰火两重天！股市暴涨，避险资产黄金、白 银暴跌！ 一起看看发生了什么事情。 10月27日晚间，现货黄金价格暴跌超3%，跌破4000美元、3900美 元关口，现货白银价格暴跌约5%。 有分析指出，因中美贸易协议取得进展削弱了避险需求。 此前一周，由于担忧涨势过快，金价的迅猛上行戛然而止。随着特朗普赴亚洲展开一系列外交活动，中 美贸易谈判之后取得积极进展。或将缓解此前支撑金价上行的一些经济风险和地缘政治紧张局面。 目前。近千名专业黄金交易员、经纪人和炼厂代表齐聚日本京都，参加由伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA） 主办的会议。此次年会自周日开幕，出席人数创纪录，黄金交易人才的争夺日益激烈。 世界黄金协会市场策略师John Reade在LBMA会议上表示，央行的买入需求已不如此前强劲，更深的回 调或受到专业交易员欢迎。他援引会场交流称，每盎司3500美元这一水平"对黄金市场将是健康的，因 为这仍是一个极高的价格"。 此外，菲律宾央行一位政策制定者表示，随着避险需求减弱、金价预计将进一步从历史高位回落，菲律 宾央行应当出售部分"过量"的黄 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, dropping by more than 7% from the high during the week and then stabilizing and rebounding. The decline was due to the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, the expectation of a ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine, and strong profit-taking intentions after the significant increase since September. The short - term easing of Sino - US trade friction reduced the safe - haven demand and increased market risk appetite, which was negative for the gold price. The lower - than - expected US CPI in September made the market expect a steady progress of US interest rate cuts, which was positive for the gold price. The sharp decline in the gold price increased the profit - taking intention of previous long positions, breaking the short - term strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph showing the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | 10/24 | 10/17 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 4,126.90 | 4,267.90 | -3.30% | | COMEX Silver | 48.41 | 50.63 | -4.38% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 938.10 | 999.80 | -6.17% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,332.00 | 12,249.00 | -7.49% | | US Dollar Index | 98.94 | 98.55 | 0.39% | | USD/CNH | 7.13 | 7.13 | -0.02% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.73 | 1.75 | -0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,791.69 | 6,664.01 | 1.92% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | 61.44 | 57.64 | 6.59% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 85.25 | 84.30 | 1.12% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 82.78 | 81.62 | 1.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,046.93 | 1,047.21 | -0.28 | | iShare Gold ETF | 484.26 | 487.19 | -2.93% | [10] 2. Gold Price Rise and Fall - Last week, the US dollar index and Treasury yields stabilized and rebounded, and the gold price fell from a high level. The overall market risk appetite increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment decreased significantly [14][15] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, international gold ETFs showed outflows. Precious metals rose and then fell, silver had a larger decline, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated and rebounded [18][22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the reasons for the rise and fall of the gold price, the impact of Sino - US trade and US economic data on the gold price, and the change of the short - term pattern of the gold price, as well as suggesting to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade agreement is reducing market risk aversion, leading to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds [1][4] - The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.04%, marking a new high in over a week, while 5-year and 2-year yields increased by 3 basis points [1] - Market volatility is heightened as traders closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and the outcomes of US-China negotiations, with any significant developments potentially triggering renewed risk aversion [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in US Treasury yields is due to investors closing positions that were previously taken in response to deteriorating US-China trade relations [4] - The ongoing US government shutdown has reached the second-longest record in history, resulting in the absence of key economic data and amplifying interest rate positioning risks [4] - Market participants are currently focused on trade optimism as a significant theme, with the progress of trade negotiations being a key driver of risk appetite [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing opportunities during the interest rate cut cycle, particularly in the gold sector, which is expected to rise due to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, risk aversion, and central bank purchases [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates by 50 basis points within the year, alongside soft U.S. economic data and geopolitical risks, which will further highlight gold's monetary and safe-haven attributes [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales to reflect the overall performance of the gold industry-related securities [1] Group 2 - The index constituents cover the entire gold industry chain, exhibiting high industry concentration and certain volatility, thereby reflecting the market value and performance of gold-related companies [1]

Gold’s record-breaking run took a breather this week, snapping an eight-week winning streak as traders took profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October policy decision. The retreat has eased safe-haven demand and, for the first time in weeks, tilted some attention back toward risk assets including bitcoin (BTC). Spot gold fell more than 6% from its all-time high above $4,380/oz touched on Monday, settling near $4,120 by the weekend. The pullback was driven by profit-taking, heavy exchange-traded fund ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to elevate valuation levels across the sector. It recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector [3][4]. - The report notes significant price movements in various metals, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI data centers and electric grid investments [4][9]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [5][7]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals saw varied price changes, with copper up by 2.20% and aluminum up by 7.61%. Precious metals, however, experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 3.30% [4][9]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 5.37% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up by 23.33% [4][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, which could lead to a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the near term [4][9]. - The demand for copper remains robust, with operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [4][24]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, among others [4][17]. - For aluminum, companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum are highlighted due to their integrated operations and cost improvements [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities based on current valuations [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to support the prices of precious metals and industrial metals. It suggests that the central bank's gold purchases will be a long-term trend, leading to a sustained upward movement in gold prices [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and others, based on their potential for recovery and growth in the current market environment [3][18]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [4][3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [7][4]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Industrial metals prices saw increases: copper prices rose by 3.38%, aluminum by 2.93%, and zinc by 3.14% week-on-week. In contrast, precious metals like gold and silver saw declines of 3.30% and 4.38%, respectively [13][14]. - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the industry, indicating their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold highlighted for their strong performance [18][19]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, with a total of 1,531 tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. The report also highlights the increasing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [21][22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 85.5, indicating the relative pricing dynamics between these two precious metals [22]. Copper Market Analysis - The report details the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in the copper treatment charge (TC) to $42.6 per dry ton, alongside an increase in domestic social inventory to 182,000 tons [27][16]. - The report highlights the operational rates for copper products, with the electrolytic copper rod and wire and cable operating rates at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent US Treasury yields have declined overall, with the "safe-haven + rate cut expectation" resonance strengthening. The core factors driving the rise of US Treasuries are the expectation of looser monetary policy, including Powell's public signal of rate cuts, mild CPI in September, and the decline in housing and oil prices weakening medium - and long - term inflation pressures. Additionally, the deterioration of regional bank loan quality and government shutdown concerns have enhanced the safe - haven property of US Treasuries [1][6]. - Fiscal and supply pressures have eased, and the ultra - long end is relatively favored. The allocation force is concentrating on the long end, and the long - end supply pressure is expected to weaken, further supporting long - end prices. In the short term, US Treasuries are supported by the rate cut path and falling inflation, but there may be fluctuations. In the medium term, US Treasuries still have allocation value and are likely to enter a pattern of low - level oscillation [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Treasury Interest Rates - As of October 24, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has dropped by 12bp in two weeks to 4.02%. The 2 - year yield has also dropped by 12bp, and the 30 - year yield by 13bp compared to two weeks ago [2]. 2. US Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance in early October, the issuance duration of US Treasuries has slightly increased, with 57.84 billion for 3 - year, 38.92 billion for 10 - year, and 21.96 billion for 30 - year. The US fiscal deficit in December is 86.7 billion US dollars, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly declined to 2.03 trillion US dollars [2]. 3. Derivatives Market - The net short position in US Treasury futures has slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million lots. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 lots [2]. 4. Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed has shown increased concern about the labor market [3]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of October 22, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance has increased by 111.02 billion US dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has shrunk by 1.415 billion US dollars in two weeks, with overall liquidity remaining relatively abundant [3]. - **Economic Situation**: As of October 18, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.16 (2.44 two weeks ago), indicating that the economy has deteriorated after a short - term stabilization [3].