Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a "turnaround year" for Alphabet, with a strong stock price rebound despite facing antitrust lawsuits, increased search competition, and high AI investments [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alphabet's stock price rebounded approximately 116% from a 52-week low of $144.70, achieving a year-to-date increase of 65%, outperforming other major tech companies [1] - In comparison, Nvidia increased by 39%, Tesla by 16%, Microsoft by 15%, Meta Platforms by 12%, Apple by 9%, and Amazon by 5.5% during the same period [1] Group 2: Legal and Competitive Landscape - A federal judge ruled in August 2024 that Google maintained its monopoly in general search and text advertising, raising concerns about potential structural changes [2] - Subsequent limited remedial measures proposed by the judge alleviated investor fears regarding significant business disruptions [2] - Competition from companies like OpenAI and Microsoft in AI-driven search products is a key concern for investors [2] Group 3: AI Strategy and Investment - Alphabet is proactively advancing its AI search transformation, introducing features like "AI Overviews" to enhance user engagement [2] - Analysts noted that despite threats from AI chat tools, Alphabet's position is significantly better than a year ago, with Google Search remaining robust [2] - The company is increasing capital expenditures to strengthen its competitive edge in AI, despite investor concerns about rapid spending in the tech sector [3] Group 4: Analyst Outlook and Valuation - A majority of analysts remain optimistic about Alphabet, with 64 out of 76 covering analysts rating it as "buy" and an average target price of $334.50, indicating a potential upside of about 6.7% from the latest closing price of $313.51 [3] - The current expected price-to-earnings ratio for Alphabet is approximately 27.8, higher than the five-year average of 21.7 and significantly above the low of 15.5 reached in May [3] - The ability of Alphabet to sustain growth and profitability at elevated valuations is contingent on the successful conversion of AI investments into tangible results [3]

12月27日，北京科学教育发展基金会联合硅谷著名创业家史蒂夫·霍夫曼（Steve Hoffman）设立的"船长未来（专项）公益基 金"在清华科技园启迪大厦启动。该基金立足全球视野与中国实践，致力于在人工智能快速发展的时代背景下推动科技向善，系 统性赋能青年成长，培育具有人文关怀与责任意识的未来领航者。 史蒂夫·霍夫曼（Steve Hoffman），别名"霍夫曼船长"（Captain Hoff），美国硅谷连续创业者、天使投资人及创业教育家。霍夫 曼活跃于全球科技与创投圈，对初创企业的生存策略及人工智能时代的商业变革有深入研究。 活动现场。拍摄：张旭 在题为《AI重塑世界的下一站：趋势、挑战与人的位置》的演讲中，史蒂夫·霍夫曼全面阐述人工智能对商业、社会与未来的深 远影响，并从全球创新实践的角度出发，系统分析人工智能对经济、社会及未来工作的深远影响。 他强调，技术进步不应削弱人的价值，"未来的工作将更加关乎关爱、联结与人类福祉"，必须在效率之外重新确立以人为本的 发展方向。 北京海外高层次人才协会副理事长兼秘书长、HICOOL一站式创业生态平台执行负责人武沂认为，青年作为AI"原生一代"，需培 养交叉学科背景与" ...

12月28日晚，超过4000人涌入厦门国博会议中心，他们都是赶来看优酷人文主办的《AI闪耀中国 2025 吴晓波科技人文秀》的观众。 今年，吴晓波将"AI"（人工智能）定为核心议题，大秀也是由一首女孩与机器人合奏的钢琴曲《花开在 眼前》开幕。吴晓波说："一个是硅基人类，一个是碳基人类，他们用双手弹奏同一首曲子，这样的场 景指向一个正在发生的未来。" 演讲通过优酷全程直播。出乎意料的是，原本设想的是科技话题受众以男性为主，但预约数据显示，女 性观众占比不低。 正式演讲前，吴晓波接受了每日经济新闻等媒体采访。他反复强调一个判断：AI已不再是遥远的技术 概念，它正在渗透日常生活和产业现场。 他深入分析了AI与国家、产业乃至每个人的关系。吴晓波还感叹："晚会有很多年轻观众在线。原来说 世界属于'90后''00后'，现在看来，似乎是真的了。" 第四次工业革命发生了 "2023年，ChatGPT3.5出来后，人类实际上就进入到了新的人工智能纪元。"吴晓波表示。 两年过去，AI不再只是实验室里的模型或媒体标题里的热词。他看到："在今天，人工智能距离我们的 生活仅仅只有1米之远了，我们每个人已经在使用AI，或者说我们已经在被 ...

Group 1 - The global IPO market is expected to recover significantly in 2025, primarily supported by a fundamental shift in the global liquidity environment as major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, begin to lower interest rates after a period of aggressive rate hikes [2] - In the US stock market, private equity and venture capital are leading the financing of AI startups, with significant investments from firms like SoftBank into OpenAI, indicating a trend towards rapid IPOs to exit before potential market shifts [2] - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a dual-driven liquidity support from both domestic and international capital, which is crucial for large IPO projects [2] Group 2 - Despite volatility in global stock markets, the IPO market is thriving, particularly in Hong Kong, where the number of pending IPO applications has surged from 84 at the beginning of the year to 331, suggesting an acceleration in IPO transactions by year-end [3] - Hong Kong is leading in IPO fundraising, with a total expected to reach HKD 2787.03 million (approximately USD 35.9 billion), surpassing the Nasdaq's USD 25.8 billion, marking the highest level since 2021 [4] - If SPACs are included, the Nasdaq remains the top market for IPO fundraising, with a total of USD 46 billion [6] Group 3 - Other regions, such as India and Japan, are also seeing active IPO markets, with over 200 companies in India receiving approval or submitting IPO applications, the highest in 27 years, and Japan's IPO fundraising expected to reach JPY 1.2 trillion (approximately USD 770 million), the highest since 2018 [8] - The largest IPO in the US this year was Medline, raising USD 6.265 billion, followed by Venture Global and Coreweave, indicating strong interest in healthcare and energy sectors [9] - In Hong Kong, the largest IPO was by CATL, raising HKD 310.06 million (approximately USD 39.88 billion), reflecting strong demand for battery technology [10] Group 4 - The IPO market is expected to become more crowded in 2026, with a shift in focus from recovery to competition and differentiation, driven by high listing enthusiasm and urgent capital exit needs [13] - Major tech companies, including SpaceX and AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, are planning IPOs in 2026, which could lead to the largest IPO wave in history [14][15] - The backlog of IPO applications in Hong Kong is expected to exacerbate the crowded market situation, with a significant number of companies from various sectors, including biotech and AI, preparing to go public [16] Group 5 - Despite a shift towards a more accommodative global liquidity environment, capital is not flowing evenly across markets, with the US stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, maintaining a competitive edge in attracting large IPOs [17] - The competition for top projects between the US and Hong Kong markets may lead to a relative disadvantage for Hong Kong, despite local support from "southbound funds" [17] - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality assets with long-term competitive advantages in a crowded IPO market, emphasizing the importance of valuation discipline [18]

Group 1 - The current investment climate is compared to the internet bubble of 1998-2000, highlighting that both are driven by revolutionary technologies that spark market imagination, but "changing the world" does not equate to "making money for investors" [1][71][24] - There is a lack of clarity regarding the commercialization and profitability of AI compared to the internet bubble, where many ideas have since materialized [2][73][82] - Investors are warned to avoid a "lottery mentality" and "binary bets" when investing in AI [3][30][100] Group 2 - Two types of investment choices are identified: betting on pure AI concept companies, which are high-risk but potentially high-reward, and investing in established tech companies where AI serves as a growth driver [4][75] - Investors must be aware of their risk tolerance and investment plans [5][76] - For gold and Bitcoin, these assets do not generate cash flow, making it impossible to assess their intrinsic value; their prices are entirely dependent on market supply and demand [6][77][120] Group 3 - Historical data shows that gold has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, with annualized returns of approximately 7.7% for gold since 2010, compared to 12.7% for the S&P 500 [7][52][123] - The long-term return of gold is lower than that of the stock market, and investors should not be misled by short-term price increases [7][54][124] - High-yield bonds are considered relatively attractive assets in the current environment, offering around 7% returns [67][138]

"这就像电影里的情节，"Burry引用自己在《大空头》中的名言，"我可能早了，但没错。"他承认自己在互联网泡沫和房地产泡沫中都有过早入场 的先例，但他认为当前的AI热潮与当年的"数据传输泡沫"如出一辙。目前，他通过新开设的通讯栏目"Cassandra Unchained"向投资者阐述这一宏 大叙事，警告泡沫破裂只是时间问题。 这位曾准确预测次贷危机的投资者与全球市值最高公司的论战在近期显著升级。Burry不仅公开披露了做空仓位，更猛烈抨击英伟达为回应质疑而 发布的内部备忘录，称该文件充斥着"稻草人论证"，读起来"像个骗局"。他直言不讳地指出，真正的风险被掩盖了——随着技术迭代加速，英伟 达客户的巨额资本支出面临着未来的资产减记风险。 根据11月3日披露的信息，Burry通过买入看跌期权的方式做空这两家公司，这笔押注目前的成本约为1000万美元。如果市场如他所料发生剧烈崩 盘，这笔投资的潜在回报可能超过10亿美元。 电影《大空头》原型Michael Burry再次站在了华尔街主流共识的对立面，这一次，他的目标是支撑美股牛市的AI双雄——英伟达和Palantir。Burry 坚信市场已脱离现实，AI行业正在形成类 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is expected to close with a gain of over 17%, driven primarily by a 26% surge in technology stocks [1] - Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist, Mary Ann Bartels, compares the current market to previous bubble periods, suggesting a potential bubble formation by 2029 or 2030 [1] - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is projected to reach between 10,000 and 13,000 points by 2030, with a strong emphasis on the technology sector [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's stock has surged over 40% this year, raising its market capitalization to $4.6 trillion, making it the most valuable publicly traded company [2] - Alphabet's stock has increased approximately 65% this year, driven by interest in its TPU specialized customer chips [2] - UBS strategists predict that the AI boom and strong profit growth will support market gains through 2026, with the S&P 500's earnings per share expected to grow by about 10% [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs analysts assert that the stock market is not in a bubble, as the rise in technology stocks is attributed to actual growth rather than speculative bets [3] - The best-performing companies have strong balance sheets, and the AI sector is still dominated by a few large firms, contrasting with typical bubble scenarios [3] - There is an expectation of accelerated profit growth for the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds and the easing of tariff impacts on profit margins [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国股市已基本确定在2025年连续第三年实现双位数涨幅。在这一年里，支撑美股涨势的不止AI热潮下受益的科技巨头，更多AI价值链 上的公司同样获得青睐。与此同时，银行、医疗保健等价值股重新被投资者关注，贵金属猛涨则带飞金银矿业股。展望2026年，美股涨势将面临多重考验， 波动性预计也将贯穿全年。在AI对美股的提振可能减弱的情况下，周期股或许会成为新的"主角"。 一、回望2025 1、美股年内屡创新高 AI仍是主引擎 在人工智能(AI)热潮、货币政策宽松预期、企业盈利持续超预期以及地缘政治风险缓和(如贸易摩擦缓解)等多重因素的推动下，美股连续第三年实现双位数 涨幅。数据显示，截至12月24日，标普500指数年内上涨约18%，在12月26日盘中一度涨至6945.77点，创下历史新高;以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨 约22%，道琼斯指数则上涨约14%。 具体来看，标普500指数的11个细分板块中，通信服务板块与信息技术板块涨幅靠前，分别上涨了约32%和25%。其中，通信服务板块的华纳兄弟探索 (WBD.US)在收购消息的加持下今年迄今涨超172%。信息技术板块中，在存储行业迎来"超级周期"的加 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Wall Street strategists are optimistic about the continuation of a "super bull market" for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, projecting strong performance through 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to close 2025 with over an 18% increase [1] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants have driven a 26% surge in the tech sector, significantly contributing to the S&P 500's gains [1] - Analysts from Bank of America and Jefferies do not see any signs of an AI bubble, expecting accelerated profit growth for S&P 500 companies until 2027 [2] Group 2: AI Investment and Market Dynamics - The AI investment cycle is still in its early to mid-stages, with significant infrastructure investments expected from major tech companies [2] - Concerns about an impending AI bubble are rising due to massive debt taken on by tech giants for AI infrastructure, but current valuations are not at extreme levels compared to past bubbles [3] - The current AI investment trend is characterized by strong cash flows from established tech giants, contrasting with the speculative nature of the internet bubble era [5] Group 3: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks are anticipated to lead the market, with significant contributions expected from AI chip companies like Nvidia, which has seen its stock price rise over 40% this year [6][7] - Analysts predict that the semiconductor industry will see sales approaching $1 trillion by 2026, driven by AI infrastructure investments [8] - The AI chip sector is expected to remain a key focus for investors, with a projected market size of $3 trillion to $4 trillion for AI infrastructure investments by 2030 [8] Group 4: Earnings Projections - UBS and other analysts forecast that strong profit growth from chip giants will support a bullish trajectory for the S&P 500 in 2026, with expected earnings growth of about 10% [9] - Citigroup projects a year-end target of 7,700 points for the S&P 500 in 2026, based on broadening corporate earnings and deepening AI themes [11] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the current market rally is driven by real profit growth rather than speculative investments, indicating a healthy market environment [10]

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 过去十年，每年年底我都会发布第二年的十大预言。去年年底发布的2025年十大预言，现在回头来看， 基本上都得到了完美验证，包括美联储延续降息周期、美元指数回落，以及A股和港股走出牛市走势。 人民币也如我预期一样出现升值，现在已经突破7.05，而去年年底是7.4。 那么2026年会怎么走？今天我正式给大家发布2026年十大预言。如果说2025年十大预言和当时市场普遍 看法基本上是反着来的，那么2026年十大预言则是2025年的延续，因为2026年很多宏观条件没有太大变 化，市场表现也是对2025年开启的这轮慢牛、长牛行情的延续。 第一条，美联储延续降息周期，美元指数继续回落，美股逐步见顶回落。这是关于美国货币政策以及美 元、美股的判断。在美国经济增速放缓、通胀已经降下来的情况下，美联储将会继续降息，预计2026年 会降息两次，每次仍是25个基点，这样美国联邦基金利率将降到3%–3.25%。随着美联储降息以及美国 经济增速放缓，美元指数会继续回落。美股经过十几年上涨，估值已处于历史高位，而这轮美股科技牛 行情也逐步呈现出明显泡沫化，关于AI泡沫的讨 ...