Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight increase in September, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, marking a shift from the previous month where it was flat. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, the highest increase in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer prices [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.3%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The drop was primarily due to the "carryover effect" from previous price changes, with food prices falling by 4.4% [2][3] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, driven by seasonal rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, fruits, lamb, and beef, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1][2] PPI Insights - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. This decline is attributed to a low comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies [3][4] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, have shown price stabilization, with some experiencing price increases for two consecutive months [3][4] Market Dynamics - The ongoing construction of a unified national market has contributed to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in various sectors. Improved market competition and capacity management have led to better price stability in industries like coal and photovoltaic equipment [4] - The upgrading of industrial structures and the release of consumer potential have driven price increases in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing and specialized electronic materials, reflecting a shift towards higher-quality and upgraded consumption [4]

10月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，9月居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%， 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到 1%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平，同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟在解读数据时表示，9月CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。分 类别看，食品和能源价格下降，其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比 下降约0.83个百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。9月PPI环比连续两个月持平。一是供需结构改 善带动部分行业价格明显企稳。二是受输入性因素影响，国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。国际油价下 行带动国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉记者，从传导机制看，PPIRM的下跌带动PPI下行，进而传导至 CPI。"反内卷"政策之下，工业品价格止跌企稳，PPIRM与PPI双双于7月见底，8月触底反弹，9月确认 拐点并延续反弹。"价格信号往往是经济的先行指标，国内促进物价稳步回升的努力初见成效，但要 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both showed a narrowing decline in September, indicating a gradual improvement in domestic demand and price stability [1][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, reflecting effective domestic demand expansion policies [5][6] CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 4.4%, which was the main factor for the decline [2] - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 1% is the first time it has reached this level in 19 months, driven by rising prices in household appliances and mobile phones [6] PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to August [4] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, saw a reduction in year-on-year price declines, indicating positive changes in market conditions [4] Seasonal Effects - Seasonal demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival contributed to a 0.7% month-on-month increase in food prices, with specific items like vegetables and fruits experiencing significant price rises [3] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that ongoing policies promoting consumption and domestic demand will continue to support a moderate recovery in core CPI, despite some external pressures on domestic prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) showed improvements in September, with the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a recovery in price levels [1][2] - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The rise in industrial consumer goods prices was a significant factor contributing to the expansion of the core CPI's year-on-year growth, with industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [1] - Notable price increases were observed in gold and platinum jewelry, which rose by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, along with household appliances and communication tools, which saw increases of 5.5%, 3.2%, and 1.5% [1] - Analysts predict that the CPI may achieve a year-on-year increase in the coming months, while the PPI is expected to continue improving, albeit with limited potential [2] Group 3 - The need for further comprehensive measures to stabilize prices has been emphasized, including the implementation of policies to expand service consumption and the relaxation of consumption restrictions by the government and social groups [3] - There is potential for significant progress in advancing key projects that can contribute to economic stability [3]

事件 ：10月15日，国家统计局公布9月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.3%、前值-0.4%、市场预期-0.1%、环比 0.1%；PPI同比-2.3%、前值-2.9%、市场预期-2.4%、环比0%。 核心观点：大宗涨价提振上游PPI，黄金与家电价格走高对中下游CPI也有较大拉动。 线索一：9月PPI改善，主因大宗价格延续上涨，但主要是受反内卷影响较小的铜价大幅上涨。 9月PPI环 比0%。从影响因素看，国内大宗商品中，9月以来铜价再度出现回涨（环比2.1%），对应有色采选、有 色压延业CPI环比分别2.5%、1.2%，拉动PPI环比0.1%，为主要贡献项。煤价也继续上涨，对应煤价拉动 PPI环比0.1%。但中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该因素拖累 PPI环比-0.1%。 线索二：整体CPI偏低主因食品价格拖累，核心CPI涨幅仍在扩大，结构上黄金价格的拉动作用持续增 强。 9月CPI环比0.1%，不及2017年来均值（0.4%）；其中核心CPI同比上行至1.1%，结构上源于核心商 品CPI（同比+0.5pct至1.4%）。其中金价对核心商品CPI提振较强，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别 ...

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months it returned to 1% [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to August [1][5] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase was driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase. Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.5%, contributing about 0.12 percentage points [2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily influenced by a 4.4% drop in food prices and a 2.7% decrease in energy prices, which together accounted for a significant portion of the CPI decrease [2][3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 1.0% reflects a sustained improvement, with industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rising by 1.8%. Notably, gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 42.1% and 33.6%, respectively [3] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to the effects of consumption promotion policies, with rising prices in home appliances and mobile phones contributing positively [3] PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% shows signs of stabilization in certain industries, with improved supply-demand dynamics leading to reduced price declines in sectors like coal processing and non-metallic mineral products [5] - The expected annual PPI decline is projected at 2.7%, influenced by ongoing market competition optimization and the effects of "anti-involution" policies [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the minor improvement attributed to a high base last year[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, indicating effective domestic demand expansion policies[2] - Food prices saw a significant year-on-year decline, particularly pork prices, which dropped from -16.1% to -17.0%[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in September decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month at 0.0%[2] - The decline in PPI was primarily influenced by a low base from the previous year, with the year-on-year drop narrowing by approximately 0.6 percentage points[2] - The mining industry experienced a year-on-year decline of 9.0%, while the manufacturing sector saw a decrease of 1.7%[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The PPI is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to around -2.2% in October, with insufficient demand from downstream sectors limiting the positive impact of domestic policies[2] - October's CPI is anticipated to remain below 0%, with food price declines expected to narrow due to last year's downward trend[2] - The overall economic outlook suggests limited improvement in PPI, with ongoing weak price fluctuations in upstream and downstream sectors[2]

核心观点：大宗涨价提振上游 PPI，黄金与家电价格走高对中下游价格也有较大拉动。 ● 线索一：9 月 PPI 改善，主因大宗价格延续上涨，但主要是受反内卷影响较小的铜价大幅 上涨。9 月 PPI 环比 0%。从影响因素看，国内大宗商品中，9 月以来铜价再度出现回涨 (环 比 2.1%），对应有色采选、有色压延业 CPI 环比分别 2.5%、1.2%，拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%, 为主要贡献项。煤价也继续上涨，对应煤价拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。但中下游产能利用率偏 低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该因素拖累 PPI 环比-0.1%。 线索二:核心 CPI 涨幅仍在扩大,结构上黄金价格的拉动作用持续增强。9月CPI 环比 0.1%, 不及 2017 年来均值 (0.4%)；其中核心 CPI 同比上行至 1.1%，结构上源于核心商品 CPI (同比+0.5pct 至 1.4%) 。其中金价对核心商品 CPI 提振较强，金饰品和铂金饰品价格 同比分别上涨 42.1%、33.6%，测算拉动核心 CPI 同比约 0.7 个百分点。 线索三：家电 CPI 创近十年新高，可能受成本走高、商家平滑补贴节奏的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CPI showed a slight improvement in September 2025, with limited improvement in both year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. The core CPI's year - on - year increase has been expanding for five consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month growth rate remained flat for two consecutive months, and the processing industry's prices decreased month - on - month. The PPI's year - on - year growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation [2][7]. - Regarding interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened, with short - term yields being stable and long - term yields rising significantly. The current bond market should be viewed more optimistically, and the duration selection can be from short to long, maintaining the view that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7%. For convertible bonds, although they are relatively high - quality assets in the long run, they are currently in a high - level valuation compression stage and require more attention to structure [3][19][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On October 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI data for September 2025. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.4%), the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year (previous value: 0.9%), and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.9%) [1][6]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 CPI - In September 2025, the CPI's year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates improved to some extent compared with the previous month, but the improvement was limited. The month - on - month growth rate was within the seasonal fluctuation range [7]. - Structurally, food prices improved month - on - month (with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.7%, up from 0.5% last month), energy and service prices decreased month - on - month (energy prices decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, and service prices decreased by 0.3% month - on - month), and the core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand [8]. 3.2.2 PPI - In September 2025, the PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month growth rate remained flat for two consecutive months. Among the production materials, the year - on - year decline of the mining, raw materials, and processing industries all narrowed, but the processing industry's prices decreased month - on - month [13][14]. - Looking forward, with the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the PPI's year - on - year growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation, and the price increase of upstream mining has not been effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream industrial products [17]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation, with short - term yields being stable and long - term yields rising significantly. Since the end of September, the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds has narrowed, while the spread between 30Y and 10Y treasury bonds has widened. Currently, the capital market is relatively loose, and the bond market should be viewed more optimistically, with the duration selection from short to long, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is maintained at 1.7% [19][22]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of October 14, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index had a return of + 15.7% since the beginning of the year. Currently, the valuation quantiles of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, so an oscillatory pattern is inevitable. In the long run, convertible bonds are relatively high - quality assets, but at present, more attention should be paid to the structure [28].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [1][4] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a "tail effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][5] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to the effects of consumption promotion policies and rising prices in appliances and mobile phones, which offset the decline in food prices [4][5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, a reduction in the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6][7] - The flat PPI reflects weak domestic demand despite stable international oil prices and rising copper prices, with certain export-heavy industries facing price pressures [6][7] - Future PPI trends are expected to remain flat in October, with a year-on-year decline projected to be around 2.2%, indicating challenges in turning positive by year-end [6][7]