Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The economic negative cycle of "housing price slump, stock market slump - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has ended. Despite unfavorable factors such as the weak real - estate market, the economy is expected to stabilize. The interest - rate bonds may have a narrow - range and phased oscillation, and there is a positive view on long - duration credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. It is recommended to conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds by closely monitoring the capital situation and defend once the capital tightens. Since early June, there has been a continuous positive view on long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, and strong recommendations have been made for long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng. Attention should also be paid to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed bank stocks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementing bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial Data in June 2025 - On the afternoon of July 14, the central bank disclosed the financial data for June 2025: new loans reached 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan. At the end of June, M2 reached 330.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year; and the social financing growth rate was 8.9% [1]. 2. New Loans in June 2025 - New loans in June increased slightly year - on - year, which may be related to banks' efforts to boost credit scale. Generally, April and May in the second quarter are off - peak months for credit delivery, while June is a peak month. The credit data in the first half of the year was affected by the replacement of implicit debts. The low stock mortgage interest rate and the stable stock market alleviated the pressure of early mortgage repayment. However, the significant reduction in deposit interest rates may exacerbate the pressure of early mortgage repayment. In June, individual loans increased by 59.76 billion yuan, including a 26.21 - billion - yuan increase in short - term individual loans and a 33.53 - billion - yuan increase in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year - on - year increase. In June, short - term corporate loans increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, medium - and long - term corporate loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 410.9 billion yuan. Due to issues such as low capacity utilization in the manufacturing industry, weak real - estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term. After banks boosted credit scale in June, new loans in July are expected to be low [3]. 3. M2 and M1 Growth Rates in June 2025 - Both the M2 and M1 growth rates rebounded in June. Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes individual current deposits and non - bank payment institution customer reserves on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of June 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 113.95 trillion yuan. In recent years, the year - on - year growth rate trends of the old and new M1 calibers have been similar, but the new - caliber M1 growth rate trend is more stable. In June, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 4.6%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the growth rates of both the old and new M1 calibers have significantly rebounded, indicating an improvement in economic activity. In June, the M2 growth rate was 8.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [3]. 4. Social Financing in June 2025 - Social financing increased significantly year - on - year in June. The social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9 trillion yuan. The increase mainly came from government bonds and credit. In June, the increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.17 trillion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 190 billion yuan; the net corporate bond financing was 241.3 billion yuan; and the net government bond financing was 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5 trillion yuan. At the end of June, the social financing growth rate was 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of the previous month and 0.9 percentage points from the beginning of the year. Looking forward to 2025, it is expected that new loans will increase slightly year - on - year, the net government bond financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase significantly year - on - year, the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, and the social financing growth rate at the end of the year may reach around 8.3% [3].

Loan and Credit Growth - In June, new loans reached 2.24 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion RMB, consistent with seasonal high growth patterns[3] - The total new loans for Q2 2025 amounted to 3.14 trillion RMB, with a monthly average year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion RMB[3] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans surged by 1.01 trillion RMB in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 400 billion RMB, indicating the importance of infrastructure investment for growth stabilization[3] Social Financing and Government Debt - New social financing in June hit 4.2 trillion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion RMB[4] - The issuance of new government bonds in June reached 1.35 trillion RMB, up by 507.2 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth[4] - The total new government debt for the first half of the year was 7.66 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.32 trillion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M2 growth rebounded to 8.3% year-on-year in June, a 0.4 percentage point increase, reaching a 16-month high[5] - In June, household and corporate deposits increased by 330 billion RMB and 777.3 billion RMB year-on-year, respectively, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 340 billion RMB[5] - The M1 growth rate jumped to 4.6% year-on-year, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since June 2023[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights a structural divergence between credit and social financing, with the need for further observation on whether the trend will improve[5] - Potential upward pressure on the RMB due to a stabilizing US dollar index may impose new constraints on monetary easing policies[5] - The effectiveness of monetary easing policies may be weaker than expected, posing a risk to economic recovery[6]

Group 1: Key Insights - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees, and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions, as well as the effectiveness of the policy [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, suggesting that subsequent policy financial tools may stabilize and strengthen credit performance [12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, attributing it to differences in holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a factor driving up oil and gold prices [18]. - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22]. Group 2: Economic Data and Trends - The article presents a detailed analysis of M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates, indicating trends in monetary supply [14]. - It includes charts depicting the year-on-year growth of social retail sales, breaking down contributions from various sectors [16]. - The article mentions the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes, including the decision to maintain the federal funds rate and adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts [25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, attributing it to the introduction of new policy financial tools and the expectation of stable credit performance [12][12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, citing factors such as holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16][16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a driver for rising gold and oil prices, indicating external influences on domestic markets [18][18]. Group 2 - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22][22]. - It highlights the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, along with adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [25][25]. - The macroeconomic outlook is discussed, with a focus on the potential for "stagflation" and the implications for future economic policies and market conditions [26][26].

Summary of Financial Data for May 2025 Industry Overview - The financial data for May 2025 indicates a significant impact from government financing, particularly through special treasury bonds and local government bonds, which have contributed notably to social financing [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Financing Support**: Government financing remains a primary support for social financing, with special treasury bonds and local government bonds providing strong backing. The fiscal expenditure has been more robust compared to the same period in previous years [3]. 2. **Short-term Loans Increase**: There has been a year-on-year increase in short-term loans for enterprises, likely due to heightened short-term funding needs following tariff relaxations. This trend mirrors data from March 2025 [2][4]. 3. **Corporate Bond Financing Growth**: The issuance of technology innovation bonds has driven an increase in corporate bond financing, indicating a positive trend in this area [2][4]. 4. **Weakness in Medium to Long-term Loans**: Despite the increase in short-term loans, medium to long-term loans for enterprises remain low, reflecting a weak investment sentiment among businesses due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [2][4]. 5. **Non-bank Deposit Growth**: Non-bank deposits have continued to show high growth, potentially due to a shift of private sector deposits towards wealth management and other non-bank assets following a reduction in deposit rates [2][5]. 6. **M1 Growth Recovery**: The M1 money supply has seen a rebound in growth, driven by an increase in corporate demand deposits, aligning with the rise in short-term loans [2][5]. 7. **Concerns Over Deposit Trends**: The trend of converting current deposits into fixed-term deposits among government agencies has not shown significant improvement, which may affect future government procurement activities [2][5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of financial data in May 2025 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing scale surpassing forecasts. Although new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, the actual performance, excluding bill financing, was still strong [2][6]. - The sustained high level of fund inflows from non-bank institutions has provided considerable support to the market, contributing to the positive overall financial data for the month [6].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing (社融) remained stable at 8.7% in May, with new social financing of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Government bonds, corporate bonds, and foreign currency loans were the main supporting items for social financing, while weak entity credit continued to be the largest drag, indicating a weak internal financing willingness[9] - New corporate short-term loans amounted to 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230 billion yuan, while new medium- and long-term loans were 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan[21] Group 2: Household Sector Insights - Household short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1 billion yuan, while new medium- and long-term loans were 74.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2 billion yuan[22] - The real estate market showed signs of marginal recovery, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreasing by 3.3% year-on-year, but rebounding by 8.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[22] Group 3: Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, while M2 growth rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%[35] - The increase in M1 was attributed to a low base effect from last year and a tendency for companies to hold cash rather than invest[35] - The marginal decline in M2 was influenced by a decrease in the attractiveness of deposits relative to wealth management products and an increase in fiscal deposits of 880 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.7 billion yuan[38] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The outlook for social financing growth is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8.5%-9.0%, with government bonds continuing to act as a stabilizer[44] - Key risks include macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, slower demand recovery, and potential geopolitical risks[45]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the financial sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 620 billion, which is lower than market expectations of approximately 800 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion [1][2]. - Social financing (社融) in May 2025 increased by 2.29 trillion, surpassing market expectations of about 2.05 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [1][2]. - M1 growth rate rebounded to 2.3% in May, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 7.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [1][4][6]. - Total deposits in May 2025 increased by 2.18 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion, mainly from corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In May 2025, new RMB loans totaled 620 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, primarily due to a decline in corporate medium to long-term loans [1][2]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,100 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2,300 billion [2]. Social Financing - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, mainly from government bonds and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Government bond issuance was 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was recorded at 2.3%, while M2 growth rate stood at 7.9%, indicating stable trends in monetary aggregates [1][4][6]. - The report anticipates that the growth rates of monetary aggregates and social financing will stabilize and potentially rebound in the third quarter of 2025 due to low base effects [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in May 2025 were 2.18 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5,000 billion, driven by corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May 2025 indicates mixed signals for the banking sector, with M1 growth showing signs of economic vitality, while overall credit growth remains below seasonal levels, suggesting potential for improvement in the banking industry [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Data Analysis - In May 2025, the social financing growth rate remained flat, while M2 growth slightly decreased and M1 growth increased by 0.8 percentage points, indicating a positive signal for economic vitality [1]. - The M1 increment for May 2025 was a decrease of 0.23 trillion, compared to a net decrease of 1.08 trillion in May 2024, and an increase of 0.41 trillion in May 2023, with the average from 2019 to 2023 being 0.80 trillion [1]. - The credit growth for May 2025 was 0.62 trillion, down from 0.95 trillion in May 2024 and 1.36 trillion in May 2023, with a historical average of 1.48 trillion from 2019 to 2023, indicating that credit growth has not yet returned to seasonal levels [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The real credit demand, as reflected by social financing excluding bill financing, showed an increase of 0.06 trillion year-on-year, suggesting that real credit demand has not weakened further [2]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from monetary and fiscal policies aimed at enhancing economic circulation, particularly if fiscal measures focus more on subsidies for livelihood areas such as education and child-rearing [2]. - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum (June 18-19, 2025) is anticipated to be a platform for the release of significant financial policies, which could impact the banking sector positively [3].

2025 年 06 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回升 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：二级市场表现领先，REITs 总 市值首破两千亿*林加力》——2025-06-09 《2025 年 6 月大类资产配置报告：审慎情绪延续， 聚焦结构性机会*林加力》——2025-06-05 《公募 REITs 周报：市场活跃度略降，交通基础设 施连续上涨*林加力》——2025-06-04 《公募 REITs 周报：市场持续活跃，保障房与交通 领涨*林加力》——2025-05-27 金如何配置行业*林加力》——2025-05-19 投资要点: 国海证券股份有限公司 【银行&资产配置小组介绍】 林加力，国海证券研究所副所长、首席资产配置官、金融首席分析师。毕业于浙江大学、复旦大学，曾就职于 海通证券、民生证券、浦发银行。2019-2023 年连续上榜新财富最 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1% year-on-year[1] - The total social financing stock remained flat at 8.7% year-on-year[1] - M2 growth declined by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9% year-on-year[1] Group 2: M1 Growth and Influencing Factors - M1 growth rebounded by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 1.8%[2] - The rebound in M1 is attributed to a low base effect from last year's "funds anti-circulation" policy and a marginal recovery in real estate sales[2] - The decline in corporate medium and long-term loans has persisted for two consecutive months, with a reduction exceeding 150 billion yuan, linked to a widening decline in PPI[2] Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The growth rate of social financing stock increased from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 8.7% due to the "front-loaded" net financing of government bonds[3] - In May, the net financing of government bonds remained high but the year-on-year increase narrowed to 236.7 billion yuan[3] - The phase of rapid improvement in social financing driven by fiscal financing may be coming to an end[3] Group 4: Credit and Loan Trends - In May, new credit amounted to 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, primarily due to corporate medium and long-term loans[4] - New social financing in May was 2,287.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.8 billion yuan, mainly from government bonds[4] - The structure of deposits showed that household deposits increased by 470 billion yuan, while corporate deposits decreased by 417.6 billion yuan[5]